310 karma · joined August 31, 2010
Make no mistake about it, there is no argument. We are not negotiating. I'm not recognizing anything that was said. Like hearing my nephew cracking up over saying poop, it was cute the first time. It's time for new material yungin'.
Thank you.
At the elite level this would make a huge difference. At the state level not at all.
runs <- 100000
x <- vector(mode = "numeric", length = runs)
for (i in 1:runs){
while (sum(sample(1:8, size = 3, replace = TRUE)) != 24){
x[i] <- x[i] + 1
}
}
summary(x)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0 146.0 353.0 511.8 708.0 5112.0
quantile(x, c(0.5, 0.8, 0.9))
50% 80% 90%
353 824 1187
Strangely enough the mean agrees. The other ntiles are off a bit, but that's randomness for you. runs <- 10000
x <- vector(mode = "numeric", length = runs)
for (i in 1:runs){
while (sum(sample(1:6, size = 3, replace = TRUE)) != 18){
x[i] <- x[i] + 1
}
}
summary(x)
quantile(x, c(0.5, 0.8, 0.9))
> summary(x)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0 62.0 149.0 216.2 300.0 1902.0
> quantile(x, c(0.5, 0.8, 0.9))
50% 80% 90%
149 350 495
A simple simulation. Run 10K times. Count the number of times it takes for three dice to add up 18.The numbers very much agree with you. The median is 149. The 90th is 495 in the simulation, which is close enough to 496. There is very much a long tail in the data. So, the median and the average will not be the same. Is it a coincidence that mean is a 216?
runs <- 10000
x <- vector(mode = "numeric", length = runs)
for (i in 1:runs){
while (sum(sample(1:6, size = 3, replace = TRUE)) != 18){
x[i] <- x[i] + 1
}
}
summary(x)
quantile(x, c(0.5, 0.8, 0.9))
> summary(x)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0 62.0 149.0 216.2 300.0 1902.0
> quantile(x, c(0.5, 0.8, 0.9))
50% 80% 90%
149 350 495
A simple simulation. Run 10K times. Count the number of times it takes for three dice to add up 18.The numbers very much agree with you. The median is 149. The 90th is 495 in the simulation, which is close enough to 496. There is very much a long tail in the data. So, the median and the average will not be the same. Is it a coincidence that mean is a 216?
2*0 = 1 2*1 = 2 2*-1 = 1/2
When 1 raised to any power equals 1, does the power matter at all? Even if it's unknown, the answer is 1.
In my case the data arrived in CSVs with around 20k skus. Had they arrived a couple at a time, I could have created a CSV and written to ClickHouse later or used any of the other storage methods available in ClickHouse.
The vast majority of us are users. We massage the data to be in a certain shape, then feed it through a machine that someone else created. We can change the parameters. We can change the data. But few of us are going to look in to the code of a random forest function.
I've switched tracks and started doing web development. Playing with the hyper parameters in machine learning is no different than changing the feel of a drop down by changing the colors, fonts and other things to fit a certain aesthetic.
I could be wrong, but I have yet to meet anyone that has done anything besides use packages created by others to call themselves data scientists. I think that opens it up to becoming just another tool no different than Excel.
Truth be told, I don't know and it matters very little to me. Yet I have read more than one article about Kenyans and hiding in the mountains from testers. Maybe it was propaganda, but I read it.
I have no dog in this fight. I'm sure Kenyans are great runners. Maybe the best.
All models are wrong, some are useful.
Blah, blah, blah.