1,854 karma · joined October 8, 2013
Algorithmic trading models and hedging systems to complement index investing
I have a fair amount of stock options I've collected from 3 different mid-size companies over the last half decade; all are still in business but none are showing extremely promising outlooks, so I no longer count stock options in my long-term financial planning though it would be a welcomed bonus to my plans. Instead, I count the value of $5000/month left over from my decently high salary minus my non-materialist lifestyle invested in index funds to achieve financial independence the old fashioned way. Somewhat anti-Silicon Valley philosophy? Perhaps, but the Bay Area is all testing diverse ideas and out of the box approaches to life satisfaction. I don't claim my life is superior to the theoretical in this article, but it is much simpler and probably lower stress, and I'm pretty happy on a day to day basis so I'm not yet tempted to dive in to the alternate approach.
This is a much more accurate description of the various levels of upper class from Economist Felix Dennis:
$2-4 million: The comfortable poor
$4-10 million: The comfortably off
$10-30 million: The comfortably wealthy
$30-80 million: The lesser rich
$80-150 million: The comfortably rich
$150-200 million: The rich
$200-400 million: The seriously rich
$400-800 million: The truly rich
$800 million - $1.998 billion: The filthy rich
$1.998 billion and Above: The super rich
Bubble bursts always start in the public markets. Next, VC-backed "unicorns" with ludicrous multiples will soon find themselves unable to raise cash at even half their previous valuations. Then those companies will have to tighten their spending which means layoffs and smaller revenue growth which is a vicious cycle towards even lower valuations, bankruptcies and ultimately a much worse job market for tech workers.
I'm expecting a 30-40% decline in S&P 500, 30% decline in bay area real estate values, 30% of bay area "well-funded" startups going bust, and 25% reduction in market rate pay for software engineers over the next 2 years. Hopefully that will turn out to be a gloomy forecast, but it's best to prepare for the worst.
I like thinking about AI at the high level, reading about the ultimate fate of the universe and studying macroeconomics. I don't like worrying about the details, Angular vs. React, writing unit tests, fixing bugs. I suppose I'm just lazy. But at my point in my career at least, I'm the one supposed to be doing the grunt coding work and I find it boring.
One day we'll figure it out, but it's not a problem you solve overnight I've learned. I've been dealing with this for half a decade now. Some days feel worse than others, but at the end of the day, we can pay our bills and live a pretty nice lifestyle to find consolation, so I guess it's all a first world problem.
Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to dump the majority of their stake by SEC regulations. Then proceed to shout about how you changed the world and how it wasn't for the money from your yacht.
You can smell the elitism dripping in their examples on the site. Private helicoptors, $31 grocery delivery... most people will pay a little extra for convenience, but this is ridiculous.