Uber losing $1B a year to compete in China
reuters.com
reuters.com
I'm sorry but... isn't this exactly what Uber has been doing to their competitors for a long time in most markets?
I wish I had a golden unicorn, but my lack of one doesn't make the world unfair. Just suboptimal.
If only taxi regulation was like that..
1. It assumes you don't need to be technically savvy to drive a taxi (where?))
2. It assumes you can make a living (where?) driving taxis
3. It assumes the reason some people might be out of a job is because they can't adapt to one particular kind of app (hint - Uber isn't the only "taxi" app).
Seriously, LA cabs suck. I've had one good ride that was the Santa Monica Green Cab.
One time a cabbie tried to take me to Burbank from Koreatown by going south on the 101! Everyone knows that you take Wilshire to Vermont, letting you skip the traffic on...
But seriously, it's the people I would bet fall into that category that usually resulted in the worse cab rides. They even anecdotally generally result in the worse Uber rides, only the communication is less of an issue because I can just put in an address and everything after that is entertaining gestures and failed attempts at communication, but I still get where I'm going.
But they now want more regulations on a free internet, they work against net neutrality because "a large amount of their invested money" would be derailed.
Basically when it happens to others, its free market. When it happens to you its unfair/harsh.
The free market policy is to side with the startups. A "pro business" policy is often to side with the established giants.
(Also called Neoliberalisms, but that word has been used differently recently.)
i hung out with some of the Uber e-staff and founders when they were in China. i think the most memorable quote was "there's what works for every other country in the world and then there's China".
i think they stood a chance if they had positioned themselves as an upscale service. foreign brands convey status. they could have had something there that the locals didn't. but that's not what they're doing everywhere else in the world, and i understand them not being willing to split their strategy for the market.
so i guess they went with firepower. and i would guess they knew it had a low chance of success. entry into China is hard. that trail is lined with bodies, every drop of blood sucked dry.
it's difficult understand until you see it for yourself. there are people arranging fake uber rides online to split the subsidies. but they had some idea. it's a big market and Uber has a lot of cash, but $1B is still a big bet with such bad odds.
So ... never say never, I guess.
I find this ...
"MacArthur articulated his most famous dictum—“never get involved in a land war in Asia”—after the Japanese surrender, because he believed that Japan’s simultaneous war in China made his Philippines victory possible. Japan had annexed Manchuria in 1931, then invaded China in 1937" [ http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/rethinking-do...]
We acheived our goals of stopping the Communists from conquering a friendly nation; so it's a victory.
Nobody won the korean war. It was a draw,a stalemate.
The US won on the South, they won on the North. The war officially never ended.
https://books.google.com/books?id=D1dOCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA191&dq=d...
> By the beginning of the 1960s, North Korea's economic development was much more impressive than was South Korea's and would remain so until at least the mid-1970s. (...) As these data make abundantly clear, without foreign aid, the DPRK could not have achieved its ambitious post-war reconstruction.
Another fun fact: even with all the help from the US (for which I'm grateful), South Korea went though an unbelievable amount of death and suffering all the same, and our first president was a first-class mass murderer who would have been quite at home in the company of his Northern counterparts. So, yeah, somehow we ended up all right (after decades of tyrants and struggles), but the history is a lot more complicated than good guys saving half of the population from bad guys.
One major reason North Korea is shit today is because Soviet fail and international embargo.
Shifting the goalposts. The fact is, both sides pledged to fight until the other was (politically) annihilated. Both sides failed to meet that goal, or even come close to it. Despite 2.5m+ killed or wounded, and a landscape in ruins.
"If you wish to destroy a persons fortunes, advice him to start a transportation business".
That may be the case for a number of different situations. However, Didi Kauidi, China's ride-sharing service, may just be a better offering than Uber.
Last year, it arranged 1.4 billions rides, more than Uber has done worldwide in its entire history. Also, Didi doesn't just focus on private-car services. It lets users pick a taxi, private car, shared car, shuttle van, or bus to pick them up. It also is tailored to the local market. During Chinese New Year, lots of flights and trains were sold out. Didi helped users find inter-city rides at train fare prices.
It also has a few quirks that separate it from Uber. You can book a test drive of new cars (Audi and Mercedes included). And, Didi is also offering a Tinder-like matchmaking service for passengers. As a kid, I was getting it on in the back seat of my parent's Dodge. What a time to be alive.
Wait, what?
- Per the Economist
Call me a jaded person, but Uber shall have learned a lesson.
When they break the law, its distrupty, when someone else does it, its "unfair".
Baidu over Google; Alibaba over Amazon; Renren over Facebook and Twitter (both blocked in China).
Only exception is Apple, but they mostly sell products instead of info (and is fashionable among the Chinese elite). But then, there's always Xiaomi...
Uber is not blocked, for now. That can change in a whim. The Chinese government can simply create regulations that apply to them that do not apply to their local competitors. This has happened many times before in the past....
>Unlike the fact that China still cannot make a smart phone as good as iPhone, or cannot make their own OS like windows, that's they Apple and MS thrived.
While the Chinese did not design the iPhone to say that they "cannot make a smart phone as good" is completely false. For one, the iPhone is largely manufactured in China and has been for a few generations now. Second, some of the best iphone competitors / android devices are being made by Chinese companies.
Such as? Even if true they are running non-chinese OS software...
Making the iPhone in China means they could make iPhones, not necessarily that they can design and build their own full stack phone without "borrowing" heavily from foreign cpetitors.
Huawei M8 is nice and well made.
> Making the iPhone in China means they could make iPhones, not necessarily that they can design and build their own full stack phone without "borrowing" heavily from foreign cpetitors.
I generally agree with this, but you may be underestimating how quickly others can catch up in this globalized world.
Plus the blueprint has been well established by the other big Asian tech companies. Look at how quickly Samsung "caught up".
There is nothing special or unique about Uber. Yes, their app is pretty. Yes, they are ubiquitous around the world. But there is nothing about it that cannot be copied by a Chinese state-owned enterprise. One could argue Uber's only major advantage is its waterfall of investors.
Uber's most significant long tail value is their heaps of traffic flow and passenger data. Sounds like the exact kind of thing a rich and historically totalitarian regime would want for themselves. And if you want to spot patterns in a potential dissident, it helps to know where they go.
More riders = more drivers. More drivers = more riders opening that app first. I have personally learned to check Uber first before Lyft because I know Uber drivers are closer and the fare estimate will be lower. Uber's advantage is their institutional experience pushing competitors out of markets they want and their cutthroat attitude.
Take Google for example. will it break the copyright law to provide MP3 download for its own survival in USA? I bet yes. But in China, it won't. It's not an issue of morality, or suppression of Chinese Community Party.
Amazon VS. Alibaba. Jack Ma personally visited clients to seal deals, would Jeff Bezos do the same to his Chinese clients? I don't think so.
MSN VS. QQ. In 2005/6, 10m+ Chinese MSN users were assaulted by a social engineering hack. It only took 6 months for MS to recognised the issue. Tencent normally reacts in 48 hours.
Twitter VS. Sina Weibo. When Sina decided to do Weibo, it was a full scale operation with so many functions Chinese users loved that even if Twitter was allowed in Chinese market, it would lose in weeks.
when you are playing a market game in China, facing competitors whose lives are in stake, the result is obvious. Your competitors would do anything to survive, including breaking laws, lobbying/bribing govt./officers.
Another reason foreign social networks tend to be blocked in China: if someone makes a post on Weibo or Renren that the party doesn't like, they can simply have it removed without fanfare...along with the poster...
Global(US) company cant survive in China, a major reason is that their services are not competitive enough(although a few exceptions, e.g. Google Search), comparing to local rivals.
Amazon, for example, their delivery is not working in China. Competitors are offering same-day delivery, or even 3-hour delivery one or two years ago in China, while Amazon is relying on some crappy 3rd party delivery with a high deductible you have to meet before your delivery can be free.
Wechat centers around chatting as a take on SNS, and it works. It is not Facebook, but works like Facebook. While the direct copy of Facbook, Renren is long dying.
So it is really a grey area when we talking about success in China. What you need to realize, Chinese companies are very competitive. Shit tons of money pours to Chinese internet companies over the past decade. Tencent/Alibaba are all 100 billions company, and there are sizable of others worth more than 10 billions. Also, China has good engineers too, might not live up to bay area standard, but they are also much cheaper. Last but not least, I want to point out, a lot of 'tech' companies here are not really tech driven, rather they are just tech users, so their model can be easily copied and recreated, not only in China, but also by other big US companies.
All in all, it is not realistic to expect what work here automatically print money in China. South korea is an interesting example, where GFW doesn't exist, but US companies also have a hard time there, it is just that China is bigger so it gets much more attention.
Claiming the domestic market is better because the CCP basically forced all the competition out by quite publicly asking them all to spy on the chinese citizens, politically unfeasible at the time for the US companies, is not that they 'are not competitive enough'.
It's Chinese protectionism and desire for central control.
I honestly feel like you're trying to rewrite what is very well documented history and very recent history at that. It was widely discussed here at the time.
https://googleblog.blogspot.co.uk/2010/03/new-approach-to-ch...
I dont think you use the Chinese internet product that much either. Ecommerce is pretty open in China, if you can survive.
Uber is going to be more like Amazon than Google. Government wont shut it down for ideological reason.
The Chinese market was also big for Google, but once the government makes a decision, that "market" will either infect you (ie obligate you to follow Chinese government rules when it comes to your operations outside of China as well) or make you re-evaluate why you want to be in China at all. Google pulled out. The market isn't as big as people think because it's not actually a market.
It is a market. Just not a free market.
I cannot for the life of me think of a single foreign product or company operating in China that China hasn't copied for their own version (or ripped off, like the fake Apple stores). The only exceptions are culture companies, where the brand matters more than the product (Pizza Hut; McDonalds; Starbucks).
China could spend billions at the drop of a hat to create their own Chinese Basketball League, but one cannot mandate a LeBron James.
Edit to add: And there's more to a successful and interesting league than recognizable players; moreso in soccer than basketball (and even moreso in American football).
The ~450 NBA players are set to make more than all the Fortune 500 CEOs combined in salary terms, with the new TV rights. China currently can't replicate everything that goes into paying for that (we're talking about $35 billion in salary in just the next 10 years). Buying a few star players won't elevate the overall league, it'll make the league a joke.
China has an economy that is about to be half the size of the US as they are forced to significantly devalue the yuan in the next 12-18 months, and their economy is sinking under a massive and perpetually expanding load of debt. They can't afford to play the game the way they used to, where they'd foolishly pay N times what something is worth just to make it happen. Those days are over, economic normalization is inbound (if they're lucky).
Are you sure about that? How much do the CEOs make?
After some googling, looks like Nike, Coca-cola, Gillette are all doing reasonably well.
What does Uber have besides boatloads of cash and existing market share? From s consumer perspective Uber's competition works just as well (for the most part), whereas alternatives to windows are Limited to MacOS, Linux.
>Coca-cola The classic soda. Even Pepsi's cutesy challenge barely wobbled Coke's throne.
>Gillette "The best a man can get!" Lovely brand. Before I moved to DSC I used them all the time. But razors are just strips of metal after all.
Basically my point is with enough capital and know-how, anyone can create anything. But without an effective and compelling brand, you're a nobody.
China makes quality hardware these days (Xiaomi for example), but "cheap Chinese crap" is such an entrenched phrase it practically rolls off the tongue.
Tautology. Not having a brand is the definition of being a nobody. That doesn't mean you can't make a LOT of money.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-naked-pcs-lay-bare-microsof...
Letting an American company know who in your country is travelling where and meeting with whom for how long would be a risky national-security move even without the FBI and pals advertising their bulldog mentality.
You really think Travis is going to lose in China? This isn't Google China in 2009. Travis partnered with the crazy guy who got Google kicked out of China.
I won't speculate that Uber will be dominate in China but there's no way they're going away anytime soon.
Reference to Li (CEO of Baidu), expiring Google in China - https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Google-blocked-in-China
Yea, probably. He's done pretty well in most markets, but China isn't most markets.
You really think the Chinese government is going to hand over the country's taxi market to a foreign led/managed/owned company? LOL
The fact that you are comparing Travis to the CCP in the same sentence is laughable, as if he has some magical power that will allow him to defy papa Xi in his own country!
China is merely allowing Uber to experiment and establish the concept of ride-sharing in China. Once that happens they will steamroll them over using every trick in the book, including ironically, lots of regulation!
To address your second point about regulation, Didi Kuaidi doesn't escape regulation any more than Uber does.
http://qz.com/522056/the-chinese-government-just-issued-a-dr...
Uber raised $2B from Chinese investors and is partnered with Baidu. I never said Uber will win the taxi market in China, because that's incredibly hard, but to "LOL" and call my statement "laughable" I believe is a little off considering their strategy.
MS, Android, etc. those are outliers and every story has one. The reality is, the vast majority of foreign companies looking to dominate Chinese market share have met their demise.
I would say _especially_ so for companies that are displacing local operators.
Just think how mad the US taxi industry is about Uber. Now imagine if Uber is owned/operated by Jose in Mexico City. You think our politicians wouldn't regulate the hell out of it? You expect less from the Chinese?
In regards to Didi Kuaidi. Sure they'll be regulated too, but when it comes down to the wire who do you think the government will side with?
I respect that you have a different opinion but you shouldn't assume so easily.
I recently worked for a Chinese software company for over three years. I helped them IPO in China last year before the Chinese stock market collapsed. I know how hard it is to breakthrough in China because my last company had more success in North America and EMEA than APAC. Chinese regulation is hard but I'll side with Uber any day because I believe in Travis and his team, even if you don't.
You are assuming my opinion is easily formed, when it is based off of lots of experience in China and discussions with a wide network of people with even more experience in China.
Uber may succeed in China, but it will be at the blessing of the CCP (another HN commentator raises one possibility: if Chinese investors own a majority of the company). To think "Travis and his team" have any real control in China is - no offense - totally naive.
My statements aren't "laughable" or "totally naive." You just want to be right huh?
The only strategy that matters is how to curry favor with, and kowtow to, the Chinese leadership and central to that strategy, unfortunately, is not being majority foreign owned/operated (especially by Americans).
> My statements aren't "laughable" or "totally naive." You just want to be right huh?
Now you're just projecting.
Your view is in the minority, even here on HN. If you were to take this view to more China-centric online communities, you'll find even fewer supporters.
"Laughable" is mean-spirited, but "naive" is a fitting description.
You know honestly I didn't have an issue with your feedback except that you overreached when you said my comments were "LOL", "naive" and "laughable." That's offensive and arrogant. But you don't stop there, you keep attacking me!
"Your view is in the minority, even here on HN. If you were to take this view to more China-centric online communities, you'll find even fewer supporters."
You don't think I have Chinese friends? You're assuming once again.
And my view is the minority according to YOU! You don't have census data of the world, just your network, so stop attacking every response I have to prove your point!
Wait five years and we'll see who's right about Uber in China. You don't need to keep attacking me every time. It's rude.
Joke's on you, China is the 5th country has Apple Pay. Earlier than most European countries.
http://techcrunch.com/2016/02/17/apple-pay-goes-live-in-chin...
it's confirmed you can withdraw cash from ATM using Apple Pay in China if your UnionPay card has Quickpass enabled.
Rumor says 38 million UnionPay cards added to Apple Pay devices In the first 24 hours.
You really think Uber China is Uber? LOL. It's managed, operated, financed by a Shanghai based independent company called 雾博 infotech.
Who do you think pulls the strings, dictates the strategy, provides the underlying technology?
Saying Uber China is "independent" is even more laughable than "Uber drivers are independent contractors".
I agree that Uber isn't going to lose outright with how they intend to fight in China and I'm actually excited to see how much Uber will change to become CCP acceptable. If Uber wants to win, it will have to sacrifice a lot more than just money.
If they spent $1 Billion improving their service it's better than trying to outspend a natively innovating company in China backed by local people running under different rules.
And it's for the same reason why you want visa everywhere. Even if everyone uses unionpay, the travellers want their visa cards to work.
Uber has to be in China because they raised $RIDICULOUS on a valuation of $MORERIDICULOUS. That valuation is premised on the idea that they will somehow be part of the fundamental physical infrastructure of the world, in a more-than-just-taxicab kind of way. Disclosure: I think that this is an absurd premise. But it's their ambition.
So they have to eventually show solid steps on being more than just a taxi company for rich dense North American cities, because they claimed they were worth $MORERIDICULOUS. They have to pursue some more ambitious schemes. One of those is getting a dominant position in the market of the 1/7th of the world that is most rapidly growing in wealth.
Haha, really? Isn't that how Uber started out, and the quote could well be verbatim from a taxi driver in 2011?
He doesn't say he thinks what they're doing is illegal or unethical. He doesn't say they should be stopped by anyone. He just wishes they weren't around.
You're thinking he's said things which he hasn't.
It's ironic because it's exactly what they have done in other markets, but they're not complaining about where they were successfully the aggressor, but instead where they are the victim of the tactic.
I don't see how you've come to that conclusion without asking him to clarify what he means.
Everyone's down voting me like I'm an evil person. I'm just defending him because I think it's lazy to attack someone's point of view with the withering criticism of 'ironic', when the actual words on the page don't really support it.
>We beat some people in some markets, but now we're being beaten in this market, I wish we weren't.
making it about the "the world" pushes it into an ethical or moral opine.
Yes, This this is completely disingenuous... They did not only start out like this in the US, but this is the ONLY way they were able to buy their way into China. When Uber started in China, their competitors had most of the chinese local drivers, and it was Uber who started the subsidy war to gain market share.
This will drive up the IPO value. By the time they get steamrolled by the local competitors or by the local regulators (likely both) they'll have sold off their shares to the dumb retail investor.
The fact that the heads of Uber China and its main local competitor are literally family members is very telling....
I took a few cabs around shanghai in 2008 and was floored at how cheap their prices were.
If Didi Kuaidi is undercutting taxi prices, and Uber is trying to undercut them... ridesharing must be almost free in major chinese cities at this point I'm assuming?
The black car service, my wife uses that more. I have trouble using it since I can't epay (no chinese ID number to link to my unionpay card). But the cars are nice, the prices are a bit higher than taxis but we often get coupons that bring the price down. Still nowhere near to the cost of a taxi in the west.
[0] https://www.theinformation.com/ubers-losses-grow-but-so-do-i...
I didn't realize they were profitable here. When did this happen?
The point is, I think ride sharing apps have much more competition in China/Asia. It's not just terrible bus systems and inefficient taxi services like in America.
Regular cabs are cheap and plentiful over here. I can go from here to Sanlitun for about 150RMB, which is about 30km. Within 4th ring road, flagging one down (outside of rush hour) is trivial. Public transportation is cheap as well (1RMB for a bus ride, 3-10RMB for a subway ride all over the city). That means that neither Uber nor Didi are competing on convenience, they're competing on price till they've got the market cornered.
And every app over here does it. Wechat pay got themselves advertising spots during the New Years Festival Broadcast last year and has been offering discounts EVERYWHERE last November. McDonalds, Subway, Paris Baguette, literally everywhere. This year Alipay got to sponsor the New Years Festival Broadcast, so they're in catchup mode right now.
Uber may have used the strategy first, but they're late to the party in China. As a foreign company in China, they should have positioned themselves as a premium provider. Look at what Apple did. It's a thing of beauty how obsessed Chinese people are over their iPhones.
So how would Uber have gone about that? Offer premium rides first. Nice climate controlled cars with properly screened chauffeurs. Aim for the people that aren't quite able to afford a full-time driver. Didi can be nicer than cabs, but it's a little hit or miss sometimes. Remove that ambiguity.
Open up an Uber store in Sanlitun. Does an Uber store make sense? No, but then a lot of things do not make any sense here in china, and they still work somehow. Nice modern store, a fancy car somewhere on display, and what would it sell? Gift rides and vouchers. Exploit the Chinese habit of giving gifts and regifting(you can buy fruit in boxes for Chinese new year, why not Uber rides in boxes?), and go wild with it. Wooden box with a red sleeve, containing a scale model of a car with minimal uber branding, some assorted status object and then a red envelope that folds open to reveal an Uber voucher in the X000RMB range, or some fancier rides you can't book through the app (eg. armoured cars/vintage cars/sports cars/helicopters/etc.). In a sense, Didi is already doing some of these.
The point is, if you're trying to get into the Chinese market, don't get into mudfights with Chinese competitors. They'll fight dirty, and if you fight dirty, they'll fight dirtier. Apple didn't come out with a discount phone to beat Xiaomi (which btw, fights REALLY dirty. They sell to distributors ABOVE MRSP to cut their margins. the distributors have to put up with it).
No, go premium, and come early. There's an entire part of the Chinese tech industry that calls itself C2C - Copy 2 China. The moment your startup hits techcrunch, there'll be a Chinese copy of it. That is a law of nature. It will happen to you.
Uber should have known this before throwing down the gauntlet over here. It's not going to be a fun ride for 'em.
Ghanan kids prolly wont have the money to even afford Uber.
We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11129670 and marked it off-topic.