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monort

9,845 karma · joined August 6, 2014

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monort··on Bitcoin is Eating Itself
6 MB/s is trivial for cheap servers and doable for a lot of personal connections (outside US) right now, you shouldn't even wait for Moore's law to catch up.

In 2016 Visa made 86 billion transactions, that is average of ~2600 per second, one magnitude less, than you expected.

monort··on We’re Going to Need More Lithium
Oil alarmism existed as early as 1919: http://papers.sae.org/190011/
monort··on AI Failures in 2017
There is no obvious victim when selling a drug, if transaction is voluntary. We already accept that by allowing selling some drugs, that were historically consumed.

If you want a future-proof law, you should start from first principles and not use a path-dependent current laws, where selling alcohol is ok, but selling heroin is a crime.

monort··on AI Failures in 2017
The answer is obvious - AI shouldn't enforce victimless crime laws.
monort··on Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today
There was a halving of miners subsidy in 2016, that is what drives the price. For some reason the effect is delayed, but it was delayed during previous halving too.
monort··on Max Howell, author of Homebrew, on being rejected for a job at Google
Yes, I know Google Scholar didn't exist in 2002, but there were papers anyway:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=audio+fingerprint&hl=en...

monort··on Bitcoin Billionaires May Have Found a Way to Cash Out
If you are thinking the difference is negligible, you are thinking only about things you can buy right now. Imagine you want to buy:

Rockets (Bezos, Musk)

Curing aging (Ellison, Bezos, Page, Brin, Pineapple Fund)

Curing malaria (Gates)

Or something on a lesser scale:

Seed funding to startups (Graham)

App to display wind for kitesurfing (Lukacovic)

Remember the last frustration you had with software, hardware or your hobby? Imagine you can solve it for yourself and others just by throwing money on the problem. There is a saying, that the rich are just frustrated mariners, all they want is a larger boat. If you are in that category, then yes, your lifestyle difference won't be large with a $100m and $1b

monort··on Modern life is lonely – We all need someone to help
This is exactly the problem, that can be solved with software, we know it from the past (IRC, ICQ random chat, Livejournal).
monort··on Groups funded by the Koch brothers are campaigning against municipal broadband
It looks like this (Romania)

https://farm4.static.flickr.com/3628/3493868568_0538c4f264_b...

monort··on Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (2008) [pdf]
Satoshi didn't predict mining pools, but they were fully aware that mining nodes will be in minority. It's mining pools that produce centralization problem, not mining hardware.
monort··on The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market
But this definition is unusual and doesn't bring any insight. It reminds me about psychological egoism, that says that there is no altruism, everything is egoism. Technically correct, but doesn't help to explain altruism-behavior.
monort··on The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market
While this position is technically correct, it is absurd. By this logic, enforcing freedom from slavery is coercive as well, because it requires threat of violence.
monort··on Coinbase: The Heart of the Bitcoin Frenzy
You shouldn't worry about it before scaling problem is solved. Dollar will start losing value to bitcoin only if a considerable number of transactions are made in bitcoin, and there is nothing apocalyptic about it - it will be a slow move from the dollar to a cryptocurrency.

$1M/bitcoin and 3 transactions/second are not compatible.

monort··on CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10
Would you use a currency where 10% every year (not once) goes to a relatively small number of banks?

USD M2: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

monort··on Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures
You said that jewelry and industrial use outweighs investment use, but gold reserves (investment) far outstrip yearly transaction amount, that is the difference with other commodities, where it is rare to have more than a year supply. It is a feature of gold and that is why people call it a "store of value".

Transactions are necessary but insufficient for something to become a store of value. For example, steel is sold in great amount, but it is not a store of value.

monort··on It Looks Like Nobel Economics Laureates Don't Like Bitcoin
Actually, bitcoin velocity is comparable to M2 USD:

http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-velocity/

monort··on Bitcoin ‘Ought to Be Outlawed,’ Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Says
If we compare only fluctuation down, then except for the first bitcoin bubble, they are actually the same magnitude difference: around 2x

https://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5a09d3f635876e0101...

Though fiat currencies fluctuate less frequent so far.

Incidentally, US dollar is the most well managed currency and that is why Americans do not understand the value of bitcoin.

monort··on Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures
You are looking at the wrong metric, it seems like they count only transactions, not holdings. Only Fort Knox holds over 4000 of metric tons of gold.
monort··on Bitcoin ‘Ought to Be Outlawed,’ Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Says
You are incorrect in the belief, that currencies of developed world do not fluctuate.

Pound sterling: http://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-h...

Swiss franc: http://www.macrotrends.net/2558/us-dollar-swiss-franc-exchan...

Euro: http://www.macrotrends.net/2548/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-hi...

Yuan is much worse, though it doesn't matter that much due to capital control: http://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dollar-yuan-exchange-rate...

monort··on Hidden Cameras in AirBnBs
Usually hidden cameras are installed in hotels not by owners, but by staff.
monort··on Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Imagine you are living in the past, when gold had only industrial, probably jewelry use, and you invent the concept of money. Would you buy the gold then? Hint: industrial use accounts for maybe 1% of the price of gold.

That is what is happening with bitcoin, people realize it can have monetary use and buy it to capture the difference between intrinsic value (zero) and future monetary value. Of course, this can fail badly if bitcoin won't be used as money.

Additionally, there is a positive feedback mechanism that can be deadly for fractional reserve fiat currencies. People get credit, buy bitcoin, this inflates the fiat supply and drives bitcoin price higher, alluring more people to repeat the process. This process is called hyperbitcoinization.

monort··on Bitcoin hits $10,000
Because it's too early, bitcoin is still small. Wait until some terrorists use it for funding.
monort··on American Equity
USSR had more of the floor as well, it still had a large inequality. You could get much more resources (though not monies) if you chose to become a party bureaucrat.
monort··on Teenagers are growing more anxious and depressed
It's acceptable and encouraged to follow unknown people on IG. I follow people with hobbies I like, some of them become friends due to interaction. Unfortunately this works only for hobbies that can be fit in a photo, I'd like to have a more generalized platform (anyone remembers Livejournal? :)

If you read comments here, you will find a few people who lost their significant others, because they got too many friends from Instagram and irreversibly changed!

monort··on Teenagers are growing more anxious and depressed
Do you actually use Instagram yourself? From my anecdotal evidence - IG is the greatest source of new friends (do you know how hard to get a friend when you are an adult? It's easy with IG). Most communication happens in private messages, so you don't see it.
monort··on Facebook Can’t Cope with the World It’s Created
Would you apply the same logic to government?

Government has to be broken down to pieces. I think it has reached a state where it cannot be allowed to continue as a single government being able to observe/monitor public and private communication / social interaction of so many people and not being regulated and controlled by market forces.

monort··on Bitcoin Is More Expensive to Keep Safe Than Gold
You should pay to five companies in different jurisdictions for a 3 of 5 multi-sig. As far as I know, nobody offers such service right now, but I think it will exist in the future.
monort··on Silicon Valley thinks it invented roommates. They call it 'co-living'
Are you talking hypotheticals? Because in reality private jitneys are mostly forbidden in US, not regulated.
monort··on Silicon Valley thinks it invented roommates. They call it 'co-living'
This depends on a country, I've seen some where it's municipal bus, that is overcrowded, and mini-bus is a more "premium" service. But anyway, do you think you should force them to pay twice the price by removing the overcrowding? It's just a revealed preference, like with airplanes, people prefer price to comfort. Modern startup in this area can experiment with a different price for standing/sitting.

If this jitneys are really worse, there is no need to forbid them, municipal buses will outcompete jitneys.

monort··on Silicon Valley thinks it invented roommates. They call it 'co-living'
There are dollar vans in NY, that supposedly regulated and still profitable. It's really weird how developed world mostly ignores third-world model of private mini-buses.
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