Coinbase: The Heart of the Bitcoin Frenzy
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Side note: one of the absolute killer features of crypto currency markets is finally we have an always on market. Stock markets and exchanges still operate in the old days of the hours of the day in the country they are based in, crypto currency is an always on market which is nice because it eliminates the after hours/before open games that go on with stocks.
*In addition intermittent outages which prevented me from accessing their site, I sent some Satoshi from my local wallet to coinbase (10 days ago at time of writing) in order to unload some; transaction was marked "pending"; they've since sold the coins; customer support has stopped responding to my emails.
Eventuslly I was up 5000 I decided to sell 10k so I could let the rest freeride. When I went to sell coinbase told me they couldn't validate my identity and wouldn't let me sell.
Which is ridiculous. They had no problem taking 10k from me, but not the other way around?
At the very least they should have put some info somewhere telling me that before I bought any.
Nothing I did worked. It just kept telling me it couldn't validate and to try again in 24hr. I contacted support and eventually got a boiler plate email.
Eventually I opened a new account on another exchange, sent my eth there and sold it for btc which I sold for usd on localbtc.
Ended up a 2000 dollar loss because this whole process took like a week or so during which eth kept dropping.
My advice to anyone using cb would be to have a local wallet and working accounts on multiple exchanges. If I had done that I would have been okay.
However I still think that if my identity was no sufficiently validated to sell, they should have told me before I went to sell.
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6933360
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5427985
4 years ago they had a problem with customer service and the situation does not appear to have improved:
> When it takes a public outcry on HN for a company to do their job, I no longer deal with such a company. Simple as that. I don't care if you raised $25 million - if you can't treat your users fairly, you deserve neither.
I wonder if that applies to Google too, the most famous company for which you need to get on the HN frontpage to actually reach someone there.
Not my experience - no luck getting ID verified yet.
Fortune favored me this time around, but I don't know if I can trust coinbase again. If the price had dipped, I'd be out a bunch of money. (Just to be clear: they received the coins days ago, just didn't credit them to my wallet.) I wish there was an option to sell BTC directly from your local wallet, which would set a strike price and ensure that users don't get screwed if/when this sort of thing happens. (Note: This option may exist and I'm just not aware of it. I tried to log into coinbase just now to verify that ... but the site is down again.)
One of them being a lost deposit. The address generated by the site was wrong and thus the deposit never credited. It took a couple months for support to get on this and refund the lost amount. This happened a couple years ago. So had it happened now I'm not sure if technical support will ever get back.
I also failed to contact their technical support about other issues (can't really remember) but there was no way to reach them. They don't have proper support, they just have monkeys that tries to save face on social media. Only.
The best exchange so far from a technical perspective is Bitfinex. It is surprising because it is quite shady. But it is a rock solid exchange; and it is magnificently engineered. No wonder it is the top exchange out there. And Finex has handled the recent surge much better than Gdax or any other exchange out there.
Wow. Wonder why that might be
Coinbase service is spotty but at least it has its security going for it, for now.
The Bitfinex fiascos, of which there is a chain of suspicious events, could be circumstantial or truly something to be concerned about.
1. My bank account has a 5000$ limit and my credit card has a 750$ limit. After spending 1000$ from the bank (which takes a week), I wanted a quick 50$ from my CC, but it said I was already past the 750$ limit.
2. When trying to recover an older account, the recovery keeps asking for my phone number but isn't sending me texts properly. If you say you lost your phone, you can submit id+selfie, but to get to that step, you need your phone??
3. If you reset Authy, it removes your Coinbase token, and tells you to contact their support. They're very slow as responding, and after a week, I was just told to use my phone number (which again, goes back to #2)...
Two I remember: The id+selfie didn't work in firefox. and they had a page that would calculate the max wrong in firefox. Sent an email about both. I don't think they responded to the first one; and on the second, they redesigned their site a bit to delete the page.. then sent me an email asking if I still had that problem (about 1-2 weeks later).
I don't think they test very thoroughly... and they definitely don't use firefox.
I did this a week ago. They ask you for your current (= old) phone number and your new phone number, but you don't actually need access to your old phone number. You just need to enter it.
Starting at what?
What is the value proposition that is actually in play here, for which there is some hard evidence of it's existence, other than a speculative frenzy?
It's a bit galling how many people this go 'round are just outright saying "yeah, it's a ponzi, come on guys hop on! there's a high ceiling! hope you get your chair when the music stops!"
But here's the problem with this idea as being some buoy for bitcoin/cryptocurrencies, once an economy of this sort develops with some semblance of structure, that market is going to seek out inefficiencies. First on the chopping block? A massively inefficient distributed currency system.
For this reason I think any sustainable use case of a bitcoin like system is necessarily rather niche, and rather 'seedy' or worse, ransomware, etc. But if all the bitcoin dreamers fade away, it becomes much easier to counteract the use of btc-like systems for ransomware extortions and the like.
Debt-fueled inflation resistant money. It is right in the statement in the genesis block detailing a bank bailout.
Who is transacting monetarily in bitcoin? Why do they find it superior to other options? Is this a growing cohort?
stock index futures are 23 hours: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html#equityIndex
stock volume is larger than futures (347B global avg daily volume vs 280 in jan 2016, not sure about now), but futures larger than ETFs (280 vs 88)
youll have to convince me that institutional investors dont drive futures volume, cant find data offhand but wont give you benefit of the doubt on that one :)
Something might be open that will change your money but there is no real liquidity on the weekend.
edit: do tell us hacker news instead of the downvotes...
1) They take account verification seriously and leverage best practices around 2-factor auth etc even going so far as suggesting you NOT use simplified solutions like authy.
2) Your "hot wallet" balance is insured from internal breach / external hacking / etc. Good to note it's not insured from somebody stealing your account credentials from you directly.
3) They store 98% of their total crypto balance offline with a physical system designed to minimize losses or attack vectors.
EG their insurance - https://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/166237...
So seriously they blocked my entirely legitimate account from buying and refused to provide any explanation or recourse.
The fear you have is real, but it is slowly getting better and with that more will enter. Just like investing in early companies, it is riskier now, but as it becomes safer, those risk takers are rewarded.
Funds were lost in mtgox, btc-e, many others and there is fraud abound (pre-SEC times or early), but coinbase and the coins they offer are currently safer than it was. As more players enter it will be safer still.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_forfeiture_in_the_United...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
You wait and see what happens when coinbase has 500 billion or a trillion dollars worth of hard currency on their platform, and the us dollar is three years into its slide. The temptation to raid that will be far too great.
Per your other argument: a whole host of executive orders spanning 2 years, nearly 100 years ago, designed to work around the federal reserve ratio, doesn't hold much water.
Obviously, this makes no sense to a cryto enthusiast, because they care more about the stuff you talked about.
But the "average" zero knowledge person who freaks out about how Bitcoin is "unsafe" is usually talking about private key theft, or getting scammed by someone. These "unsafe" things aren't a problem on coinbase.
In terms of "always on", the futures market is always on. You can trade softs, metals, currencies, bonds - you name it. The leverage available is 200:1, 50 times greater than the SEC's limit on security margins(eg the stock market). This means you can make(and lose) catastrophically larger amounts than you began with. Controlling your risk is no longer done by a broker limiting your leverage, it's done by you and involves methodical discipline.
The downside: you are trading against pros with deeper pockets and more experience than you could possibly imagine. You won't be out smarting, out trading, or getting "an edge" on anyone except the other retail players.
4 Years Ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6929705
I wonder if equity markets will one day move to always on, I hope they do.
With more investment options such as crypto currencies, I wonder if they will eventually do it to stay competitive to investment cash.
Nothing worse than pre-market and after hours shenanigans in equity markets, can't pull that in an always on market.
1) Security 1a) Compliance ... 57) Customer Service
While annoying, this was both sufficient and necessary for the business to date. Security is necessary for obvious reasons. Compliance is necessary because to be able to do business with US banks (card processing, ACH, wires...) they had to be aggressive about complying with US regulation. Which ultimately gives them an advantage on the customer service front relative to their competition for retail investors. And frankly, they aren't much worse than most online brokers.
These priorities were also sufficient. Amazon was competing against major incumbents and had to win on cost and service. By outcompeting an empty field on compliance, Coinbase has built a significant moat around US retail. They have relationships with Fidelity and USAA that signal legitimacy. They had cold storage while incumbents were/are still saying 'blockchain not Bitcoin'.
The critical question is how they manage customer service and communications going forward. Amazon, Facebook, and Google created monopolies based on a great user experience. Uber destroyed a thousand monopolies for the same reason. Coinbase is riding the coattails of Bitcoin's awesome UX, the warm fuzzies people get from making 10x on an investment. If and when there is a correction, their core business will hinge on how well they handle a large sell-off.
It is ridiculous to complain about fees and continue to drag your feet to implement tech that is lowering fees in production right now that other companies already have activated.
Either way, we still have the option of buying BTC and transferring it to a company that doesn't defraud its customers, then withdrawing from there.
god forbid they make obvious what most users are using the app for.
I'm sure someone else can poke holes in this as well. =)
There's literally nothing special about bitcoin, apart from its decentralised nature.
Other than that, it's just a big ledger. No different from virtually any other database. It's special because it's decentralised.
The way people use bitcoin however, completely reverses that and is extremely geared towards use of centralised parties. It's as if we built solar panels to generate electricity with which we heat up our oceans, causing ice caps to melt and global warming to occur. It's a bit of a joke.
We're now all valuing a system, above other systems, for its unique decentralised properties, while subsequently throwing that out the window, yet still expecting this system to be uniquely valuable. We're all introducing trust into a trustless system, and paying intermediaries and middlemen a cut in the process.
That's fine for other investments, e.g. productive assets that are valuable for other reasons. But it's not fine for an investment into something that's valuable because it's trustless, decentralised and disintermediating.
There's some nuance I'm leaving out of course, you can argue against this post, but by and large you can't ignore this massive disconnect between bitcoin's value proposition and bitcoin's reality. Nor can you argue anymore, like we used to, that it's just a phase. If anything, there's less and less regard for personally run wallets, personal nodes, personal mining, personal transactions, and an increase in use of centralised parties, with centralised wallet providers, cloud and company mining, transaction processors etc.
Then the whole angle of "trusted" is complex due to the parties that you are entrusting and the number of issues that they have suffered.
So then you look at banks and say ok, interesting, perhaps I haven't quite noticed the seamless ease of use layer that they provide, that I have undervalued simply because it's been a fact of life for so long it becomes invisible until you deal with the exact opposite.
Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO, "said he now holds more of his wealth in a Bitcoin competitor, Ether"
Long answer - I had a chance to interact with one of the founders - Daniel Larmier back in 2013/14 during his Bitshares days. My impression is that while he has all these grand ideas, he doesn't know how to follow through. Then there seemed to be a lot of nepotism during the Bitshares build.
And then there is this:
> What features, uses or attributes do EOS Tokens have? Can the EOS Tokens be used on a blockchain adopting the EOS.IO Software?
> block.one is building the EOS.IO Software but it will not configure and/or launch any public blockchain platform adopting the open source EOS.IO Software (the “EOS Platform”). Any launch of an EOS Platform will occur by members of the community unrelated to block.one. Third parties launching the EOS Platform may delete, modify or supplement the EOS.IO Software prior to, during or after launching the EOS Platform. The EOS Tokens do not have any rights, uses, purpose, attributes, functionalities or features, express or implied, including, without limitation, any uses, purpose, attributes, functionalities or features on the EOS Platform.
I have never been sued by the government. I don't plan to be sued so that knowledge is useless for me.
(For those not aware, Bitcoin Cash is a fork of Bitcoin that removes segwit, the initial groundwork for off-chain scaling solutions, and instead simply increased the blocksize; so far this has proven to greatly reduce network congestion.)
Maybe it was the right call for Coinbase to not support many of the forks, but they will be adding support for Bitcoin Cash in 2018 (at least withdrawals). So it’s inaccurate to characterize Brian Armstrong on the “losing” side of these debates.
Anyways, here's a video released today of a lightning transaction happening on mainnet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k
Here's a video of Greg Maxwell explaining how slight propagation delays can lead to drastic increases in centralization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIuuKCm53o
And here's rootstock, an ethereum compatible solution for smart contracts: https://www.rsk.co/
Bitcoin Cash is like trying to solve traffic congestion by adding more lanes.
Here's a truly revolutionary scaling solution by the inventor of Bitcoin's Lightning network and Vitalik Buterin: https://plasma.io/
Also here is an Ethereum's equivalent of the Lightning network, which was deployed on main net recently: https://raiden.network/
Edit: > Why would anyone ever use rsk?
ICO. Share offer.
Processing more transactions requires more resources. That's not a bad thing. One might note that currently Bitcoin Cash is usable as a medium of exchange, whereas Bitcoin is not.
They can reduce the bandwidth requirements by implementing e.g. compact blocks.
It's over right? The whole attempt to sideline the bitcoin development team failed, and now that uncertainty has been removed, the price of bitcoin is skyrocketing. That's because bitcoin is valuable for what it is, not for unproven use-cases that decrease bitcoin security. We will get to those use-cases through layering bitcoin, and will not have to sacrifice security to do it.
Accept it. Move on.
Fortunately among the other cryptocurrencies are communities that have not yet been compromised by greed.
their main stroke of genius was not having any transactions on their chain
http://bitcoinist.com/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-announces...
Not to mention being a signatory to the nya, being the attempted hostile takeover of bitcoin via 2x that crashed one block before the fork. And let's not forget :
http://www.coinfox.info/news/persons/5012-brian-armstrong-ca...
Losing side. Every time.
And no one is interested in a centralized alt like bch, which is why it has virtually no traffic. If people were interested in that use case, they'd be using litecoin, having double the capacity of bch, as well as having segwit, and atomic swaps with bitcoin.
See also a longer explanation I wrote at: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7508mh/comment/do7umhy
Oh, and BitPay (the payment provider Steam used) tried to trick users into switching to it via a blog post telling them they needed to upgrade to it because of Segwit and their money was at risk if they didn't. Every user who followed their advice will now have a client that doesn't work.
Yes, I can see how some people might see that as a bit hostile. It's as if IBM went around all the Fortune 500 soliciting signatures to swap out all Libreoffice for Openoffice.
Except perhaps Openoffice is a healthy project in comparison.
Your characterization of Armstrong's position as being pro-centralization is typical of the total disconnect between the 1-MB-Bitcoin crowd and reality.
According to your logic, Satoshi Nakamoto was pro centralization when he described a future with GB blocks and thousands of transactions on-chain per second.
The reality is that they don't care much about fees, they just pass them on to their customers.
Maybe he boasted what was best for the currency, but propaganda won in the end. So he switched knowing a manipulated currency is not an investment he is interested in?
It's important to realize that bitcoin's message is being manipulated by blockstream. It's not a conspiracy theory, it's conspiracy reality. Subreddits like /r/bitcoin had moderation schemes that buried support for the change, and boosted opposition.
I thus switched to Gemini because I do not want to support this invasive nonsense. It's literally an automated version of "put shoe on head" (the request that /b/tards would make of camgirls that they wanted to troll).
Between that, and the thing where you literally have to enter your BANK'S username/password to ANOTHER WEBSITE (coinbase, in this case) to prove you have that account (of course it chokes on 2FA); the USian banking system is such a scary bad mess -- and i'm pretty sure that that's a significant driver of bitcoin adoption (and there's also the ACH clusterfuck).
On that page, instead search for your bank, and in the event it or whatever you're searching for doesn't come up, select the "Enter manually" option, and it'll do the old PIN-via-two-sub-dollar-deposits confirmation trick. It'll take a couple days, but it works.
I had few rough service providers who tried to come up with some magical charges (technical fee of $500 per year) after agreement was signed and had to change bank numbers to make sure they wont take the money out since it would be more than $500 to fight them in court.
The company is called EMS Merchants btw.. you can read horrible stories of merchants screwed by them in this way via ACH on online forums.
It's a little more work to stay on top of transferring out money when it gets deposited and putting it in when I want to spend it, but it gives me a bit more piece of mind when giving out routing/account numbers.
When you write a check, the signature is the authorization to withdraw funds, and the amount and recipient is specified.
I’m shocked that banks would permit a withdrawal without some kind of “anolog” to this authorization pattern.
It makes all these worries about passwords and online credentials seem quaint. These numbers are all over the place, online and off. Why aren’t halfway clever hackers draining accounts right now?
This is a very common thing for fintech companies to do.
Yes. All the work of "don't enter your bank password on any website that isn't your bank" went down the bloody trash once this awful workaround to the awfulness that is ACH happened. It's very sad.
Not sure if this is what they use now, but Mint used a similar (but older) service to Plaid called Yodlee [0] as their backend for accessing bank accounts.
[1] https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/18/mint-is-yodlees-youtube/
The same does not apply to this, or any other coin- centric company. Yes, in our terms, these are huge dollar sums. But if you work in fintech, this is a small pimple on the side of trades in real goods, and existing financial instruments.
Look: the fintech people get this space, and they are not dissing the model entirely. But please, don't pretend that the feds could not shut this agency down tomorrow, and it would have almost no effect on the US bottom line reports for financials.
Here's a shit ton of reading if you're interested:
It doesn't charge a flat fee for buy/sell crypto currency, but a 2-3% fee based on the transaction value.
So even though I'm sure they've been making cash hand over fist this past 12 months, it makes any sort of future prediction extremely difficult. They not only have to predict customer growth (which leads to transaction volume), but also the price of those cryptocurrencies. It's akin to calculate position from nothing but a accelerometer, and that double integral would be quite a bit of margin of error.
But in the end it may not even matter, as far as revenue growth and even profit wise I'm sure they are doing absolutely amazingly.
Hell, I wouldn't even be surprised if Coinbase has higher daily revenue (definitely more profitable) than Uber at this point.
If you're ok with buying for 100, but someone else is selling for 99, you've effectively done a market order and have to pay the fees. However if the lowest sell is 101 and then the price moves up to 105, you've just screwed yourself for 4 in order to save 0.25
Even if you could, why would you want to buy at 105, when the current price is 101? Just to don't have to pay 0.25 in fees!? That sounds like "The Firm" from John Grisham where rich people would rather pay $2 to lawyers than $1 in taxes.
You do not know what the current price will be when you click the submit button. You may enter a limit of 105, and find that when you get around to submitting, the price is suddenly 205 or 1.05. This is why you use a limit order, so that your "market" order doesn't give you a sudden surprise.
On top of that, the current price is only valid for a certain depth. So if the asks are 10x101 and 20x106, I want to set my limit to 105 to make sure I only take that 10x101 order off, and not start chewing through and execute at a much different price than "current". All these orders are changing extremely rapidly for any popular item, so using limits makes sure you get the execution you want.
The limit does not set the price that your order will execute at, but the limit. It'll match at or better than the limit you set. So you never end up paying more than you're OK with, but you prevent getting burned by sudden movements. This is much more important on these cryptocurrency exchanges than traditional stocks.
People will always buy $100 worth or whatever regardless of what percentage of a bitcoin that gets them.
"Correction: December 6, 2017 An earlier version of a photo caption with this article misidentified the place where Coinbase employees were gathered for lunch. It was the gaming room, not the cafeteria."
SegWit being pretty much the most important update to Bitcoin so far with a lot of advantages, I would expect that CB would give top priority on supporting it. But Brian when asked about it, he replied with a job ad about new positions, while I would expect they would put their most experienced engineers on it, instead of depend on new recruits for such crucial and maybe challenging project.
To adapt a line from Bojack Horseman, “That’s not the HR counseling room, it’s the hot-take-cooldown room.”
Actually, I think it is still too difficult. I mean it is not that difficult, but if you had to send every e-commerce shop a photo of your driver license just to buy something there would be a lot fewer people buying stuff online.
I have a case open for multiple weeks to get my address validated. I was able to buy initially, but now it pops up a "quiz" (that's how support calls it), where i have to enter my address and then it says that it's not a valid permanent address. Which is funny because that is the same address the accepted when I signed up and validated my ID. There support literally tells me, "sorry your problem, but you can try the quiz again- and maybe one day it will work". To me thats an unbelievable statement.
I think they have to stop onnoarding customers and solve some of their basic flows first. What if I wanted to sell? It is just not possible within Coinbase.
From my very uninformed perspective, the tool mostly does what it says on the tin these days, but that hasn't always been the case. I would be interested in following along with Coinbase during this transition, and hearing more about what MongoDB is used for there today.
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmc...
Coinbase being based in the US probably won't happen because there could be consequences for them if they disappear with the coins, but having been burned by Mt. Gox fiasco is making me sit out of crypto, but with some sour grapes because each day bitcoin just go up and up. Was $13000 yesterday and it's almost $16000 today. It took a week to go from $10000 to $15000. Insane.
Now, they could be hacked and lose a lot of customers' coin without realizing it as happened with Mt Gox. This is why it's advisable to hold your coin in an offline wallet, but doing so makes it harder to panic sell. But that shouldn't matter since we're all definitely here just to HODL crypto and see it actually be useful and we're definitely not just to try to speculate off of it. Right?? Right???
I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely curious - hey, the fees seemed high to me, too. Luckily the appreciation of the coins made those icky feelings disappear quickly.
To clarify: their % fee isn't that high - the fact that it's uncapped though is pretty outrageous. A $10K trade on Schwab costs a few dollars; on Coinbase, a couple hundred.
I guess once BTC futures are out and one can speculate on BTC in the open market, they'll have to feel the pressure and adjust their pricing.
Are any of these people downloading Coinbase and buying coins really interested in transacting in Bitcoin or are they just buying Beanie Babies?
Although, as someone who thought the bubble would burst at $1,000, I'm quite impressed at how much interest it has garnered. I just don't seeing it end well for many people.
But the larger point is that even if people are investing small amounts, they're doing so to ride the rush, not because they see value in Bitcoin as anything other than an investment.
EDIT: Downvoting with no explanation will not change my experience. I believe that cryptocurrencies are the future but having to wait weeks for a simple bank transfer only to find out that your funds will be returned with no explanation why apart from a cryptic message that has something to do with your bank account name not matching your coinbase name is rather annoying. Match how? What do you compare? An extra dot at the end of your middle name will throw off the system without any reasonable explanation.
Honestly, if Coinbase improves their messages in this situation, it may actually reduce the overhead on their customer support but I gather that this might be intentional.
Look, my comment is not meant to bash Coinbase but there are issues with the service and it can be ironed out to make it so much better.
To my horror, I discovered that transaction wasn't actually in the blockchain, and that Coinbase essentially has an internal system you just have to trust, which seemed to be contrary to the whole idea of a global ledger.
I setup my own wallet and transferred it to that (thus achieving my initial goal of seeing my own transaction in the block chain). There's no way I'd put any significant amounts into Bitcoin, let alone Coinbase.
Their ID system keeps throwing me errors when using my US passport. i have no Us drivers license or Active Us Cel phone for auth.
58) Recruiting process
Happy Bitcoin 13,000 Day.
I mean, that was yesterday. A few hours after I sent out Money Stuff saying Happy Bitcoin 12,000 Day, which was also yesterday. At this rate we'll have Bitcoin 25,000 before my "Bitcoin 25,000 Before Dow 25,000" hats get here.
Happy Bitcoin 14,000 Day.
That was also yesterday.
Happy Bitcoin 15,000 Day.
That was this morning. See what I mean?
Happy Bitcoin 16,000 Day.
That will be this afternoon, probably.
Happy Bitcoin 17,000 Day.
Just in case, why not.
Still more bitcoin.
Bitcoin futures are set to start trading next week at CBOE Global Markets Inc.'s futures exchange, with CME Group Inc. following the week after that, but some people object:
The Futures Industry Association, whose members include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., detailed its concerns in a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday. The association said there should have been more discussion about margin levels, trading limits, stress tests and clearing before the contracts were given a green light.
For clearing members of futures exchanges, the worry is that some bitcoin futures trader will blow up, and that bitcoin is so volatile that the trader's margin won't be sufficient to cover its losses. That will leave the members of the exchanges on the hook for losses. This seems like a ... totally reasonable worry? If you collected 25 percent margin from someone who was short bitcoin on Monday, they would have blown through it by this morning. Also the standard fate of bitcoin exchanges seems to be to get hacked and lose their customers' money, so if you are a customer of a futures exchange I can see why you'd be skeptical of your futures exchange turning into a bitcoin exchange.
Meanwhile, here is a nice profile of Coinbase, a bitcoin exchange that hasn't been hacked, much. (Though: "In May, the company was criticized by a customer who could not reach anyone at the company after his account was hacked.") It "runs an exchange, called GDAX, tailored to larger investors," overseen by Adam White. "A year ago, his Wall Street outreach was difficult, but 'it’s all inbound now,' Mr. White said." Indeed.
Oh and another bitcoin thing was hacked:
NiceHash, the marketplace for cloud-based mining of cryptocurrencies, said hackers breached its systems and stole an unknown amount of bitcoin from its virtual wallet.
Some $60 million worth of bitcoins may have been affected. Elsewhere here's a guy who lost the password to his 40 bitcoins.
Futures are settled daily, so the risk is only of a 25% move in one day. I agree it's a risk, but much less of a risk than if the futures were settled every 4 days as you were suggesting :)
The futures are cash settled, so I doubt that's a problem.
If anyone is wondering, this happened because I accidentally opened the app while on vacation in a country that the US sanctions.
They froze my account, required that I pay them money to even get access to my transaction history, and then when I did (foolish, I know) the records don't show any reason for me to have owed them money.
It wasn't a large amount (<$50), but I'm still pretty upset about it.
I have moved to another platform.
It's not a unique issue either, just look at all the posts on the Coinbase subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinBase/
It reminds me of the time Washington DC had a baby earthquake and verizon's network promptly fell over. When it flops under non apocalyptic loads, you get a dark glimpse of the inevitable catastrophe when the big one rolls around.
When (not if) the next bank run occurs, you'd better hope you can get yours via the vanilla coinbase UI, because you will be all on your own. (FWIW I have money in coinbase after this experience, but only an amount that would not cause me to need therapy were it to catch on fire)
That doesn't exactly happen overnight.
If supporting your customer base makes the business unprofitable then you don't (yet) have a viable business model.
What should we do about the destabilizing potential of Bitcoin?
There are two facts about Bitcoin worth worrying about:
1. There is no upper bound on the price
2. Everyone who thought the price won't continue to exponentially increase was wrong
Greed is a powerful motivator.
It's easy to smile at this[1] but it will only take a couple more 10x increases before people stop laughing.
What happens when governments start putting money into Bitcoin because they don't want their economy to be left out? It'll only make the price go up even further.
It might be a good idea to take a step back for a moment and stop thinking "Can I get rich?" and start thinking "Before this reaches a point where we should worry, what should we do?"
I'm aware that this has roughly a 0.1% chance of happening. But if you'll suspend your disbelief for a few minutes and accept "What if it might be true?" then you'll find it's an interesting question worth thinking about.
It's starting to feel like no one really has a plan for this contingency. It will be a relief if the price crashes back to $1k, but Bitcoin defies belief. How many of you have parents that are seriously talking about getting in? Everyone wants to become rich. And if that infectious mindset spreads to the whole population, we might get an uncontrolled upward spiral.
Is there a way to prevent that?
Now, to add to the discussion: Several people have voiced that there is no reason to worry, both because it's impossible for BTC to hit $1M/coin and because this is all conjecture. But there is every indication that the BTC craze could in fact spread to the entire world -- literally nobody will be able to escape thinking about it, because that is what the world values. This has low probability, but just like climate change, it's worth planning for it now rather than later. Can we please try to think of something? Look at this[2] and let that graph sink in.
Fiction is also worth taking seriously. Satellites were predicted by fiction long before they were deployed. Many of the most influential ideas start as works of art. The dystopian future as envisioned in [1] is a far cry from how things would turn out, but the underlying idea is that we will become subservient to a tiny few. It's only a matter of time before that money starts turning into real power.
So, if we could set aside our selfishness and try to snap out of the getting-rich craze, and ask "Can we possibly stop this?" it would probably be one of the most impactful ways you could spend a few minutes.
Making BTC illegal won't work. It'll just go to countries where it's not, and take the people with them.
I don't think it would be possible to sneak a backdoor into BTC. People would notice by now. And even if it works, they'd just fork and preserve the wealth.
Even if one were to theoretically become batshit insane and try to hunt down everyone who holds BTC, that won't work either, because it's easy to conceal. The price of mixing services will just rise to the point of taking transaction fees into account, and that's how much people will start to pay.
I can't think of anything else. Ideas?
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_time...
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7f3z8j/btc_price_a...
That said, I don’t think the scenario of bitcoin sucking up the worlds wealth, in an out of control feedback loop is possible.
There are a bunch of aspects of Bitcoin that will make its price growth self limiting.
Mostly, these stem from the fact that any “return” from bitcoin “investment” is simply a transfer of tokens from one entity to another. If I have $14k and you have this valuable bitcoin, when we trade, the tokens just switch owners.
If 1 bitcoin reaches $1m , and price is stable, why would I buy it? Maybe it has utility as a way to move large sums, where it is converted back to fiat. Or a way to protect my wealth from inflation (which means its price is going up).
If price is going down, it would be crazy to invest large sums of real money in bitcoin, as it has little real utility. This will be the driving force of a collapse.
I’m not putting my finger on it, but there just doesn’t seem to be any reason that a large percentage of the population is going to hand their wealth over to another arbitrary portion of society. The reason people are doing that now is because they are speculating on the fiat price of a digital token, in the hopes of “making money”. This is only possible under the kind of parabolic price growth we see now, which can’t continue I definitely.
That said, there are huge sums of money looking for places to invest, so this could continue a while. There seems to be a quirk of human social psychology that makes participation in financial bubbles universally popular.
This has nothing to do with interest in bitcoin actually being turned into currency. It’s kind of the opposite, they are hoping bitcoin will turn into more of what they really value, which is the coin of their realm.
Edit: There is also a hugely vulnerable system to try and realize any gains. Reddit is starting to fill with users complaining of losses due to flash crashes, and exchange breakdowns. Neither the exchanges nor the blockchain networks will be able to handle a “rush to the exits”.
It’s not possible for most people to realize “paper gains” in zero sum system, and I predict there are going to be crazy stories of huge wins and losses, when a crash comes, due to forces outside of anyone’s control.
I had to talk some sense into a friend who was saying she was fed up with being poor and was going to put her $7k life savings into bitcoin. I told her to treat it like gold, hold it, and be very careful to keep it secure. And off Coinbase. And my advice made her hesitate, and now she missed the 100% growth over the last 30 days.
But almost everybody is starting to think that way. And if the entire world starts down that mindset, there isn't a top.
People have already noticed that wealthy Saudis' money is safer in BTC than in banks. Ditto for Zimbabwe. How long until the rest of the world follows?
We have to be thinking of ways to stop this, not merely to benefit from being prescient.
The money supply of a country is a precious resource, and the government has a responsibility, and incentive, to maintain some level of control. Look how serious the Secret Service is about counterfeiting.
There are many tools the government has to control the use of bitcoin, the simplest being to just outlaw it.
They already treat individuals who sell bitcoin as a business activity with a heavy hand.
Libertarian geeks who haven’t thought things through seem to think that because it will be hard to impossible to completely shut down a distributed system, that means the government can’t control it.
Wake up! Look at Ross Ulbricht! The fact that he conducted his illegal business with bitcoin was used against him. It protected him zero amount.
If BTC wins, we'll be converting our dollars to BTC, not the other way around.
There are many tools the government has to control the use of bitcoin, the simplest being to just outlaw it.
This won't work. BTC will just migrate to countries where it isn't illegal, taking millionaires with them.
Libertarian geeks who haven’t thought things through seem to think that because it will be hard to impossible to completely shut down a distributed system, that means the government can’t control it.
They can't. The point of this post was that they can't, and that we need to think of ways to escalate the situation until people start taking this seriously.
Wake up! Look at Ross Ulbricht! The fact that he conducted his illegal business with bitcoin was used against him. It protected him zero amount.
Because he failed at even the most basic opsec. If he had kept most of his coins in cold storage that he never touched, he would still have a fortune, even in prison.
BTC was the first crypto, and network effects means it stands a good chance of staying on top. Like eBay, it may be the go-to crypto.
If it's true that crypto is the future -- that the entire world will switch from fiat to crypto, kicking and screaming -- then that means the entire world will likely switch to whichever crypto is on top. There are many benefits to using the same crypto that everyone else is using, especially when it comes to long-term wealth storage.
Eventually, the coins will stop being generated, and those coins will be the only thing that the world values. We won't transact in BTC, but BTC wasn't designed to transact. It was designed to store wealth. And it does that very well.
The rise of Bitcoin will prompt people to pour even more money into it. Savings accounts will look like an anachronism. You won't want to keep your money in a bank: If the entire world is hopping onto the bitcoin boat, then you currently stand to benefit from (7 billion - total BTC holders) of people that have yet to switch.
That means you will find it quite inescapable.
Now, the final nail will be when your dollars start to lose value relative to BTC. One way of looking at the BTC price is to say that the dollar's value is going down, not that BTC is getting more valuable.
Do you really want to bet the future of all mankind on this grand experiment? For all their flaws, our traditional systems have gotten us this far. The amount of upheaval that it could cause to switch the entire world from inflationary to deflationary basis of wealth isn't something to underestimate.
https://bitcoin.org/en/faq#wont-bitcoin-fall-in-a-deflationa...
There are all kinds of theories about what might happen. But let it sink in that no one knows, and we have no plan to stop this if it turns out badly.
This isn't really meant to persuade you, as that would be impossible. No one knows what will happen, so this is guesswork. But we know that if BTC does ultimately win, we will lose all economic controls: there will be no way to inject more money when needed, such as the 2008 crisis, and no strategies to prevent deflation. We will be at the whims of an algorithm that no one has any incentive to change.
Contingency plans are good. Let's come up with one.
Even if everything that came out of it was good, it'd change the nature of life on Earth.
Personally, I can't wait to find out what happens next. This is better than watching football!
Asking humanity in general to stop wanting more money seems if anything like a waste of time!
Of course you can't stop it. It's an avalanche, a toxic event from outer space, an act of God.
The governments can't even take down The Pirate Bay.
One thing that might help is to accelerate AI so we can leave the financial system behind in favor of total cybernetic luxury communism...
Can't see it happening though. I believe that bitcoin is going to swallow all of the fixed-asset debt in the world. It is the pin that pricks that bubble. Consumer banks are dead and they don't even know it yet. Investment bankers are going to make out like bandits.