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tjmc

1,996 karma · joined May 12, 2008

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tjmc··on Why are there no startups in the real estate construction sector?
This isn’t entirely correct. Modular construction is definitely an option and is particularly well suited to projects like hotels and apartments with lots of repeating layouts. Here’s a 4 storey hospital extension that I worked on in Melbourne that was put together over a weekend: https://www.modscape.com.au/commercial/the-avenue-hospital-e....

Having said that, it definitely has limitations. There’s a lot more structure in the modules which means more material overall and makes it harder to fit in services. You’re also limited architecturally.

tjmc··on Money is the megaphone of identity (2020)
What if you spend your money on solar panels? We produce twice as much power as we consume
tjmc··on Developer tools to create spatial experiences for Apple Vision Pro
A couple of ideas I'd love to see...

- Night vision app using the truedepth and lidar sensors

- Drone/robot/telepresence HUD. It would be incredible with stereoscopic cameras

tjmc··on Submarine missing near Titanic used a $30 Logitech gamepad for steering
There's calculated risk and reckless risk. Sounds like this was the latter unfortunately.
tjmc··on First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources
My personal conspiricy theory is that the "lab leak vs wet market" debate is a distraction in order to do nothing about either.

Wet markets and gain of function research should both be banned.

tjmc··on Air Purifier vs. Positive Pressure Fresh Air System – An Unfair Battle?
No they wouldn't. Typically outside air systems shut off in fire mode, but they often keep running if there's smoke due to air pollution. If you need to deal with this you need a HEPA.

An alternative for critical facilities like datacentres, is they often just go into recirculation mode. This wouldn't work in locations with persistent air polution.

tjmc··on Air Purifier vs. Positive Pressure Fresh Air System – An Unfair Battle?
Agreed. Unfortunately we usually only see HEPAs in hospital theatres, CSSDs and the occasional lab. Air quality standards are still very lacking here. They haven't been updated since COVID or the east coast bushfires in any way.
tjmc··on Scientists Guide Lightning Bolts with Lasers for the First Time
Great Scott!
tjmc··on Air Purifier vs. Positive Pressure Fresh Air System – An Unfair Battle?
HVAC engineer here. I'd be interested to know if you've done any measurements with outside air coming through standard F5 filters. This is the typical setup for most ducted AC I come across. Much lower pressure and cheaper than HEPAs. It would be good to know what air quality results as a baseline and also in conjunction with in room purification if you have any data.

Edit: I'm in Australia. Here's a comparison of filter types for different locations: https://www.filtermakers.com.au/selection-guide/

tjmc··on FAA seeks public input on drone operations
Air pollution? You do realise most drones are electric right?
tjmc··on Statement on AI Risk
Ok - fair comment. So I found a copy of Superintelligence. The argument is pulp sci-fi at best: "The final phase begins when the AI has gained sufficient strength to obviate the need for secrecy. The AI can now directly implement its objectives on a full scale. The overt implementation phase might start with a “strike” in which the AI eliminates the human species and any automatic systems humans have created that could offer intelligent opposition to the execution of the AI’s plans. This could be achieved through the activation of some advanced weapons system that the AI has perfected using its technology research superpower and covertly deployed in the covert preparation phase. If the weapon uses self-replicating biotechnology or nano-technology, the initial stockpile needed for global coverage could be microscopic: a single replicating entity would be enough to start the process. In order to ensure a sudden and uniform effect, the initial stock of the replicator might have been deployed or allowed to diffuse worldwide at an extremely low, undetectable con-centration. At a pre-set time, nanofactories producing nerve gas or target- seeking mosquito-like robots might then burgeon forth simultaneously from every square meter of the globe (although more effective ways of killing could probably be devised by a machine with the technology research superpower)."

Look - nothing's impossible, but I agree with the counter argument that an advanced AI still starts as a "brain in a vat", with no experience of agency in the physical world. In order to successfully take over you have to assume it can develop all the physical world capability it needs, in secret and get it right first time. That seems implausible.

tjmc··on Statement on AI Risk
Superintelligence and Life 3.0 seem to come up as recurring references in the discussion. I've only read synopses of both but frankly I find the argument that melevolent AI "escape" could occur without being noticed and thwarted a bit far fetched.

There's a good counterargument here[1] that seems reasonable: "One of the features of intelligence explosion that most preoccupies Bostrom and Yudkowsky is that it’s not a problem that we get to have many attempts at. In the Terminator movies, humans don’t get to approach a newly self-aware Skynet and request a do over. One minute Skynet is uncomplainingly complying with all human directives. The next, it’s nuking us. I suspect that we are likely to have plenty of opportunities for do overs in our attempts to make autonomous AIs. Autonomy is not an all-or-nothing proposition. The first machine agents are likely to be quite clumsy. They may be capable of forming goals in respect of their world but they won’t be particularly effective at implementing them. This gives us plenty of opportunity to tweak their programming as they travel the path from clumsy to sophisticated agency"

[1] https://jetpress.org/v26.1/agar.htm

tjmc··on Statement on AI Risk
I don't understand this argument (the "Terminator" scenario). AI could conceivably self replicate and evolve as software but it still needs hardware to run on, power, networking etc etc. There's no better way to kill that than to start a nuclear war or engineer some super virus that kills everyone.

It's hard to see any scenario where AI could become a dominant force without significant human collaboration. Perhaps somewhere like North Korea where a very small elite has complete control over the the population it could happen but it sounds a lot like sci-fi to me. I'd love to hear some plausible scenarios for the counter-argument. I've seen a lot of "I think there's an x% chance we're in trouble" arguments which might be convincing for job losses, but I don't find at all plausible as a case for human extinction or indentured servitude (the "Matrix" scenario).

tjmc··on DARPA’s silent MHD magnetic drives for replacing naval propellers
So true. I read once that fundamental physics research on quantum tunnelling in Japan resulted in antennas that immediately reduced satellite dish sizes from meters across to the size of a dinner plate. Now you can connect with a modern smart phone.
tjmc··on DARPA’s silent MHD magnetic drives for replacing naval propellers
Ask Jonesie
tjmc··on Why is my dryer radioactive?
Interesting that the second answer mentions the enhanced radioactivity of laundry detergeant. One of our smoke detectors briefly went off the other day as I walked under it with a basket of wet clothes straight out of the washing machine. Any chance that's what it was?
tjmc··on Parts for stolen Hyundais and Kias are so scarce the cars are being totaled
Hyundai and Kia cars are popular here in Australia (I own a 2017 Hyundai) but I haven't heard anything about thefts here. Turns out it's because of Australian regulations that have required engine immobilisers since 2001 making it almost impossible unless you have the keys - https://www.drive.com.au/news/us-kia-and-hyundai-thefts-what...
tjmc··on CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg
It gets worse with lithium air batteries that actually gain weight as they discharge because of the formation of solid oxides from the air. Argonne are reporting 1200Wh/kg in the lab though so still worth it.
tjmc··on Launch HN: Electric Air (YC W23) – Heat pump sold directly to homeowners
HVAC engineer here - this looks great Chris. How are you doing the humidity control out of interest? I've done a few datacentres that won't touch ultrasonic humidifiers because they generate dust in areas with hard water. Less of an issue in resi but perhaps something to consider. Also, are you doing energy recovery for your fresh air intake? If you're ducting both intake and exhaust/spill, is there any opportunity to direct the exhaust/spill air back through the external condenser on the way out to get some extra efficiency?
tjmc··on Aboriginal Australian genomes reveal Indian ancestry (2013)
So just so I understand, your source is growing up in one of the several hundred separate Aboriginal nations of Australia, most of whom have completely different languages and are dispersed across a vast nation as big as the continental United States and he speaks for all of them. Got it.
tjmc··on Aboriginal Australian genomes reveal Indian ancestry (2013)
Got a source for this fact? Generalising opinions to a whole race is rarely wise. Perhaps like anyone else with religious beliefs, those who are offended simply want their culture respected.
tjmc··on Argonne: Lithium-Air battery 1200 wh/kg, 1000 cycles
What's the conversion efficiency with a Cessna 172's ancient engine though? Batteries don't have to get that much better for electrics to dominate the training GA market.

There's a Pipistril Velis Electro[1] that shares a hanger with my flight school. It can only fly for about 30 minutes + 30 mins reserve with 2 relatively light pilots. If it had a battery which allowed for 2 hours of flight you've now tripled your range - 1.5hours + 30 mins reserve. That would cover all ab-initio training.

A battery like the one in the article would expand the range further to cross country capability and/or higher useful load, with the complete reconstruction of a piston engine every 2000 hours gone from the equation. Can't wait.

1. https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/products/general-aviation...

tjmc··on Sci-fi becomes real as renowned magazine closes submissions due to AI writers
How about limiting submissions to subscribers only? Imperfect but not unreasonable.
tjmc··on Throughout the rich world, the young are falling out of love with cars
The issue to me is not so much ownership as self reliance. I’m Gen X and I can drive, cook, swim, ski, sail, fly and scuba dive. Perhaps I’ve taken things to extremes but it was important for me and my friends to become capable of looking after ourselves. I own a car, but not a boat, skis, scuba tanks or plane (though building the latter is a dream). Here in Australia public transport is actually pretty good in the inner cities but it really limits your opportunity to see the wider country. Owning a car doesn’t always make sense - I lived in inner Sydney for a few years happily without one. But I don’t really respect people that are in their mid-20’s or older and have to rely on others to drive them everywhere.
tjmc··on Ask HN: Why aren't there any cars in Nineteen Eighty-Four?
Given the novel correctly predicted computer generated fiction and music, I don't think you could put it down to a lack of foresight.
tjmc··on HoloKit relaunched, $129 AR Headset accessory for iPhone
Agreed. Looks like they're using a half silvered mirror for the real world pass-through which was a technique used by early arcade games like Space Invaders that projected black and white graphics over a painted background.
tjmc··on Old man yells at cloud
According to this article [1] you have 15-60 seconds until the electric windows stop working. Also, on most cars you can detatch the headrests and use the metal at the bottom to break the windows.

1. https://rac.com.au/car-motoring/info/unexpected-car-emergenc...

tjmc··on Two temperate Earth-mass planets orbiting the nearby star GJ1002
For values of "nearby" approximately equal to 149,346,794,944,180 kms.
tjmc··on The Metals Company subsidiary lifts over 3000T of nodules to sea surface
I'd be amazed if some of the VPN providers aren't compromised
tjmc··on The United States of America vs. Samuel Bankman-Fried Indictment [pdf]
Wasn't Alameda the entity responsible for losing most of the money? Seems wrong that you could get less than a double digit sentance for that - even if you roll over for the prosecution.
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