Submarine missing near Titanic used a $30 Logitech gamepad for steering
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
Missing Titanic sub faced lawsuit over depths it could safely travel to - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36409475 - June 2023 (177 comments)
Mass market has a lot of R&D to leverage so it makes sense. Nothing to say this is the cause of the fault and probably going to be more reliable than something hand rolled.
[0] https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/19/16333376/us-navy-military...
Also, COTS gear that's designed with a standard interface is by design trivial to replace even through hot swapping, which automatically means resilience against errors.
That being said, the difference between a Microsoft controller and a third party is that Microsoft very certainly did a tons of reliability and durability testing on their controllers (and it shows). You don't get that with a cheap third party. So I can understand to a degree why people are questioning the decision to not pay the extra 20 bucks and get microsoft gear.
The reviews for the controller (mentioned by name in the article, so easy to look up) are generally great (4.2/5 with thousands of reviews), and the 1/2-star reviews are as frequently about ergonomic issues as they are about reliability. Every batch of controllers is going to have some unreliable ones, so the fact that that doesn't stand out as the common complaint dragging the reviews down says something.
A lot of the rest of the choices for the sub sound sus, but not bothering to splurge on a game controller that cycles RGB is not worthy of a headline, IMO.
You might generally be fine, but many crash investigation involved some cheap component failing as part of a longer sequence. Ie something fails and humidity increases then XYZ fails until eventually your margin of safety is gone and everyone dies.
What happens if you drop it, it lands sticks-down, giving a sudden large control input to the thrusters? Given those stick extensions (which look 3D printed), the controls must be fairly sensitive?
Or if the wireless connection drops out (or the battery dies) when you're close to a shipwreck or other hazard that you don't want to get entangled in?
The newer models just add X-input, change the button faces from 1234 to ABXY, and made the wireless receiver smaller.
I had to return a mx master 3 after a year when the left click button wore out.
You know that saying that anybody can build a bridge, but it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands? From what I've seen and heard, Logitech has used their experience to make peripherals that barely last longer than the warranty/return period.
FWIW my 22 year old optical intellimouse from Microsoft is still going strong.
Maybe those changes are recent but IME you've always had to figure out which are the quality lines of product from any peripheral manufacturer. I've seen dozens of the cheapo Logitech headsets broken and tossed over the years both at work and among friends. Meanwhile my G35 headset bought in 2009 has required two sets of replacement cushions in that time and still works great.
Even MS back in the Sidewinder days had their warts -- their gamepad was complete garbage while their Joystick was awesome (I still have mine).
I think GP's overall point though that peripherals like this aren't exactly unsuitable shouldn't be ignored. There's a huge advantage to something inexpensive that you can cheaply carry replacement parts for or whole replacement devices for. Once you go fly by wire (or dive by wire I guess in this case) it's not clear to me what advantage there is in designing your own bespoke system.
kinda wish they were able to withstand falls onto hard surfaces but it’s also a) my fault, and b) not an expectation i have of a mouse in general.
but it’s also a good reason to not just take any consumer device onto a sub, because functioning after a drop would absolutely be a requirement.
Also that controller is getting like 1/50th of use it would get under normal gamer so that's insanely weird detail to focus on.
I'd also imagine dropping ballast would need a controller in the first place.
[0] https://old.reddit.com/r/LogitechG/comments/pt0fkp/logitech_...
I spent a not inconsiderable amount of time trying to find a fix, including removing an internal cable and putting electrical tape over the top. Nothing worked. The closest I got was keeping the wireless keyboard plugged into its USB-C charger so that the timeout period before shutoff was longer than it was in battery-only mode.
All of which is annoying, because it's not cheap (>$100), and the fix is so stupefyingly simple - an addition of one or two settings in the configuration software. And, yes, countless people have reported this to Logitech and their 'support' consists, at best, of saying "I'll pass this on to The Team".
Never have I been more tempted to go all-in and become a firmware hacker, though the feasibility in time and probability of success are both quite low.
Mass manufactured devices - particularly when they're mature - have the costs squeezed out of them to maximize profit. That means they ride the line close to failure to end of warranty.
Suitability for purpose. Some obvious ones:
Defined and validated environmentals (temperature, voltage, and in this case pressure).
Qualified components — capacitors chosen for lifetime rather than shaving a cent, perhaps avoidance of MEMS oscillators with helium sensitivity.
Failure analysis. Low and understood probability of fail-unsafe conditions (short circuit), mitigation for those risks, fume-proof and fire-proof PCB materials to protect the sealed environment in case of failure.
Redundancy to handle failures anyway. Multiple independent strings so that single-point failure lead to partial loss of lighting, not all of it.
Load ahedding, eg dropping all but one string at a known voltage above minimum voltage, to save power for other more critical loads during system failure scenarios.
Not many companies have NASA levels of "throw money at it until it works, and every part has been signed off on five times."
Absent that, I'm having trouble seeing how custom > COTS.
In all probability, anything in-house would have been worse and added new failure modes.
Better to buy, analyze, and adapt as needed.
And if it turns out you don't need to adapt, because failure modes aren't safety-critical or components are viable in the environment, then spend your time on something more useful.
What sort of fuel do you use underwater?
Absent engineering, people die unnecessarily.
Trade offs.
See: the fact that they lost their diving vehicle.
I'm not sure why everyone is taking potshots at a company for trying something crazy with willing passengers.
Everyone involved knew what they were getting into.
Kudos to them for trying, even if they're dead.
> See: the fact that they lost their diving vehicle.
That's an awful lot of keyboard engineering, given nobody knows what happened yet.
Did they? I might have missed that part.
Unless, of course, if those signing the waivers were mislead.
What percent should it have said? 10%? 5%? 30%? 90%?
Anything other than "We've tried to make it safe, but there's a lot higher than 0% chance of death" would seem a lie.
People die climbing Everest regularly, and I don't see anyone claims the climbing industry is under-disclosing.
Because these are inherently lethal activities, that a reasonable participant engages in despite knowing the risks.
One can as far as say they indulge in it for the 'kick' this sort of risk brings. The ordinary is boring for most of these people. They don't want to have fun the same some one making $90K/yr does.
It doesn't mean that the regulator provided by the dive center is McGivered with duct tape and chewing gum. Which seems like the equivalent of the construction and the components quality of that vessel.
So they go scuba diving, the wife's mask breaks down, he comes up, she panics she doesn't. She died by drowning. He was totally broken, the wife knew the risks and he knew it too. Nevertheless he wanted her to try because he thought it was fun. He lived with the trauma for years. Probably now as well.
People don't know how bad these things can get. This sort of fun, is definitely not worth anyones life. Just go sight seeing, and have Sundae at Ghirardelli. There are many safe ways of having fun, that don't involve death as a risk factor.
This just seems insane.
While losing a mask or having it break down is very inconvenient that's exactly one of the scenarios you train for.
Even when doing the Open Water certification one of the skills you must do to get certified is to remove your mask, put it on again and remove the water from it.
> This sort of fun, is definitely not worth anyones life.
I agree. And that's the exact reason why you train for extraordinary situations and get certified.
Scuba diving is a safe sport as long you adhere to the rules and your personal limitations.
But since this trategy apparently happened in LA that's just unfathomable.
Every place I have ever been to wants to see my certification before allowing me to rent gear, I guess for insurance and legal liability purposes.
Unless I'm mistaken, the subject article starts with the words "Submarine missing". The fact that the whole thing was jury rigged and double checked by nobody with certifications is enough to start pointing fingers at the engineers.
This isn't the company's first trip either. They've taken multiple trips down and have almost lost the submarine multiple times. This time they actually managed to lose it for good.
The reason people are mad at the company is because their negligence killed 4 people for no good reason.
If a Coast Guard ship heads out of St. John's or a Navy aircraft/ship/submarine transits to the area, they burn fuel but already existed with all their trained personnel.
So most of the cost is moving things into position. Expensive, but the asset probably would have been moving somewhere anyway.
And seafarers have a strong code of ethics about helping other seafarers.
As long as they aren't brown.
Real world scenarios which don't involve any enemy combatants are invaluable to keep everyone at peak readiness
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/oceangate-...
He's representing a company that took safety shortcuts because government regulations slow innovation, but is also complaining that the government isn't helping them quickly enough in this search.
He thanks the governments, but says they need to move faster. As an adviser, he should be telling this company to have a better emergency plan.
Assuming it sunk, it'll be order of week before it's found. It'll be order of month before it's raised, if it can be. And then after analysis we might know why it sunk.
+60 hours after lost contact, while there are possibly still people alive inside the vehicle, seems premature and crass to be casting accusations for internet points.
It reportedly has radar reflectors and radio, for when it's on the surface.
At 3800 m+ underwater, it'd need to be a powerful beacon. Even most military sonar maxes out around half that.
You can buy one for a few hundred bucks, but based on everything I've read about this outfit so far, I'd be surprised if they even had that.
Additionally, if the problem was a power outage then the radio also might not work unless it had a separate power supply.
Emergency beacons cost a few hundred dollars and are designed for this purpose, not having one is pure negligence.
If they're on the bottom of the ocean then even if they're found a rescue is unlikely to happen in time.
In these situations you don’t do everything you can because it will change the outcome. You do everything you can so that someday soon you’ll be able to look at yourself in the mirror while you brush your teeth. So you can sleep at night.
I haven’t been in this bad of a situation, but I’ve been in plenty where people second guessed themselves or someone else for years even decades after. Everyone has to get to “enough” on their own terms or it festers.
So we are letting a bunch of people figure it out. If a miracle happens, awesome. But unless they’re all trance meditating down there and have Wim Hoff hypothermia training it’s not good.
Did they?
“we wouldn’t charge you $250,000 if we weren’t serious.”
Not necessarily. For extreme sports like skydiving, bungee jumping, hang-gliding scuba and the like customers still expect a high level of adherence to safety and quality products and certifications exist. Would you want to parachute off an uncertified plane with an un-licensed pilot and inexperienced jumper?
I'm sure everyone involved was expert on industrial design and were clued into what exact costs were cut /s
... which you are taking paying passengers with
Its not what tou did, its how you did it.
Of note they might not have condensation in normal conditions, but condensation is exactly the kind of thing that results in cascading failures when just one seemingly minor thing fails.
Decisions like using a 3rd party controller (known to be terrible), a wireless controller (introducing a lot of extra risk from batteries to connection problems), and a door that cannot be opened from the inside (what if they get lost but manage to surface?) are all very sus.
There's a huge list of companies that have that much revenue.
In some cases, it doesn't matter, but we shouldn't use cash as an excuse to cut corners with safety and reliability.
my xbox elite controller didn't even last a year (usb port died)... now tbf the x button on the replacement razer controller i got also died in the same time frame.
to be more fair though the wired xbox 360 controller i got with my original xbox back in ~2007 has never let me down.
https://www.collinsaerospace.com/what-we-do/industries/busin...
These are still COTS products.
You only need to spend a little time with a reliability engineer and see some of the calculations they do to start realizing how when even one or two components in a system have little corners cut, how it can drastically impact the overall safety of the system.
With the amount of corners cut on this submarine, I am unfortunately less than surprised at both the failure in the article and the crisis happening to it right now.
I hope all the souls aboard can somehow get home safe, and I hope the people who put them into this seemingly corners-cut vessel do not get to float any more craft, and that they didn't undersell the riskiness of this venture... although I'm unfortunately not optimistic about any of that.
Those things are valid for everything from med tech to aerospace and, yes, cars. The dangerous thing so, and I saw that in real life, is when that culture spreads. Usually through juniors who gained their first experience in said start-ups, and not one of those legacy shops.
Edit: None of what I wrote prevents legacy giants from cutting corners themselves, the B737 MAX showed us as much.
I imagine we'll see some of the large-cap tech companies dealing with this very soon.
I am pretty sure the camper's equipment industry too. I haven't seen many occurence of campers burning out and in most case it was caused by people smoking in their camper or forgetting to turn off gas stove.
I like MS hardware, but my goodness, calling Logitech that is clearly missing something in the accuracy department. Logitech is way more experienced at making and selling input devices than MS.
All of that worries me at a glance, but I absolutely have no awareness of the options in this space or what can be done to mitigate risks re: reliability.
Given that's what their flagship controller is like, they either don't do a lot of reliability testing or are ignoring the results.
The controller is not built to deal with high humidity which I assume is a given in this kind of sub.
Another reason is that these devices are built out of very cheap components and are not at all designed to be reliable. You can easily design a controller that is much more reliable.
Having your multi million dollar sub grounded because you allowed a cheap component on board is pretty stupid imo.
It's small, cheap and replaced in seconds.
Third party controllers never work quite as well.
Using something off the shelf is completely fine, but it doesn't get you off the hook from doing the work of certifying that it's safe and fit for purpose. If you've ever used a modern game controller (even ones made by Microsoft), many of them are prone to issues with the potentiometer which causes the joysticks to drift subtly in one or more directions. Not ideal for controlling life critical systems.
I don't think they tested them 2.5 miles underwater though. Even if the cabin is pressurized, electronics can behave differently there.
bought two official xbox controllers and they both broke within six months so…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Mouse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Logitech_products
Most people would refuse to play a video game with this controller, let alone use it as a critical component in a vehicle. Joystick drift in a videogame is frustrating. Joystick drift in a fucking submarine is a disaster waiting to happen.
Definitely wouldn't trust it for a submarine though.
Although, for some reason, it's currently sold-out everywhere.
Anyway, my point is, I wouldn’t necessarily look down on a Logitech controller. Now if it were MadCatz….
Also keep in mind that the X56, X52 Pro, and X52 weren't Logitech either. Logitech bought out Saitek which was the original vendor and at least at first glance they haven't updated the designs in over a decade.
I'd rather have the more accurate Gladiator without a throttle over the terribly imprecise X56.
At this point, I probably have about $900 sunk into Virpil controls. The Alpha grip and base, the Mongoose throttle and an extra control panel I just ordered. Just absolutely love the feel and functionality.
The one used on the missing submersible does use Bluetooth.
Consumer grade products aren't built to last, they are built to be cheap so they can sell them to actual consumers
We all know how the military ends up using these consumer grade products; lobbying, aka deep state corruption "if that happens in a foreign country"
Hololens didn't find commercial success, yet ended up with the military, soldiers weren't happy when it was time to use the actual consumer grade product ;)
> 'The devices would have gotten us killed.'
https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/13/23402195/microsoft-us-ar...
Video game gamepads are probably some of the most well designed pieces of equipment I know of, with each part having a guaranteed lifetime of clicks and/or swipes, and other such details.
Video gamers are really obsessive over these details. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the latest hall-effect sensor joypads are the best durability in the world for thumbpads.
That being said: a cheap Logitech controller would be an old potentiometer-based controller with far less durability. I'm sure if I asked around, someone out there knows the specifications and would know when to regularly replace that gamepad after X-hours of use (and I'd expect X-hours to be in excess of 1000 hours, maybe even 10,000+ hours, even for a gamepad like that)
----------
I think where video gamers are getting wow'd is that... they weren't using like a brand-name controller here. $30 Logitech is low-end. Video gamers know which controllers to rely upon.
Bottom of the barrel $30 Logitech is barely something I feel good about giving to a friend during a gaming session, let alone a life-or-death equipment choice for steering a submarine. You get far more reliable, higher-quality gamepads at the $50 or even $80 levels.
I don't think video gamers would be hating on these guys if they used... I dunno... an 8bitdo + GuliKit Hall Effect controller. We'd all be like "Oh yeah, that's quality stuff" (the Bluetooth is unreliable but I assume some kind of wired version is available somewhere...)
The top end joysticks used in video game tournaments for maximum reliability are easily $200+.
Not the $30 Logitech controller, ever heard of joystick drift? plastic is plastic, imagine you in a mission, and your joystick starts to drift
- fiction, obviously
I wish my friend whose mom bought him MadCatz controllers had your manners and sense of propriety.
They are so cheap you can carry a lot of spares. Controllers get pretty well abused by gamers, so they aren't exactly fragile.
To control periscopes (“photonics masts”), and some other equipment, not for primary control of manned vehicles, that I can find any indication of.
Commercial off the shelf pc? What kind of redundancy? How was power and power backup managed?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClkytJa0ghc&t=33s
If I had to take a random guess, this system is probably some form of an embedded Atom/Geode type device (if not just a notebook PC) with some CAN or RS485/422/232 interfaces attached via USB.
It sounds like the screens could be used as backup control mechanisms, but I wonder how much time they'd lose making that transition.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/steam-deck-controls-a-real...
Edit: consumer joysticks normally use potentiometers, which aren't great for deadzones/drift. For things like dust incursion reasons along it would make sense for any industrial/military device to be using hall effect based joysticks.
In any case, I would hope they brought a spare (or had an alternative method to drive, even if cumbersome), as easy spares is one of the selling points of COTS parts (and long as you verify it's the real part and isn't a revision that looks the same invalidating your testing).
the really strange part of that, is that the pilot was the CEO of the company. Like the Norfolk Southern CEO would never in a million years set foot on one of their trains of death.
Anyhow they now heard sounds in 30minute intervals, so looks like they are still alive down there.
In a 2022 interview with CBC, Rush added the Bluetooth game controllers were durable — “it’s meant for a 16 year old to throw it around,” he said, tossing the controller to the floor — and that they kept spares on board “just in case.”
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2023/06/20/video-game-co...
Also, the controllers appear to be only to control the periscope. Which is not a critical component of this submarine. Everybody is fixating on them, but that's not what caused them to sink/get lost. It was probably the rest of the shoddy engineering.
But he also mentioned a touch screen when talking about the controller so I bet that they can use the touchscreen to control the submarine as well.
Still most likely cause of failure is that the viewport failed and they died immediately.
COTS stuff is awesome, but it doesn't absolve you from having proper procedures in place and knowing what those procedures should be in the first place.
It's just funny that the submarine, which went missing, and is now notorious for skimping on safety, went with a generic "third party" controller instead of something higher quality, like a genuine Xbox controller from Microsoft.
War is as much about cost as it is about effective means of killing others. I can't say how much it's used because of a confirmation / media bias, but cheap drones are used effectively in Ukraine, plain commercial off the shelf drones (with matching controllers) with a bomb strapped to them taking out tanks and crews (who often leave their hatch open in the clips I've seen).
A few hundred bucks to take out a multi million tank sounds like a really good exchange.
In point of fact they are not. The PS5 controller has poor battery life and both have stick drift issues because they use cheap analogue sensors. The current generation of Nintendo controllers are similar: stick drift and battery issues are common. And then there are issues with wireless interference which can be a serious problem and, when it is, difficult to diagnose and fix. I don't think the Logitech controller in question even has wired as an option though of course I have no idea if that's relevant to the incident at all.
Thats thw kind of thing you have to test for
All those start-ups and unicorns, though. Just do it, when to be a hacker became an honorific, a title... Code your stuff, design your mechanics at Starbucks, who needs mathematics and physics when we can have s*t done instead. Who needs signing-off when we can have a carate-belt meeting standing on bouncing balls instead...
I don't want to be the dean of the faculty of prophecy but this is only the beginning. Wait until those autopilots starts using ChatGPT/Stack Overflow/copy/pasted code...
P.S. Hope they make it to the surface somehow...
https://i.imgur.com/FrdR7TP.png
So the F710 Logitech gamepad was something I wouldn't even trust as a teenager to let me play emulated retro games accurately. It has a hardware switch to toggle between DirectInput (an ancient input technology within Microsoft stack), and XInput which is a non-trivial third-party software to map controllers to do things on your computer. Complaints range from 'the input switch was finicky and I had to tape it down' to 'you had to insert the USB dongle into the computer carefully like trying to get a Nintendo cartridge to work'. In this case, it was the main navigation control on a submersible far exceeding its safety buffer by orders of magnitude.
Sure, military applications have found use for XBox and other controllers as system inputs because generations of those serving are used to that interface. The differences are not subtle:
1. There had to be a certification process to use the controller, including risk analysis which would absolutely deny any attempt to use wireless controllers to operate any piece of equipment, no less anything that was weapon or safety critical. The military doesn't drive boats with XBox controllers.
2. XBox controllers are well designed and reliable, at an order of magnitude of this one. THEY ALSO COME IN A WIRED VERSION.
3. They decided to further mod the controller for no reason with longer sticks, maybe to make it look less like the toy it is which actually reduces the dead spot response of an analog joystick. Why? What the fuck.
The reason for the photo above is to show what I've seen in every media piece where they talk about it: It is NEVER wired in any video or photo. In one video, which I can't dig up right now, the CEO actually tosses the controller carelessly on the ground and quips that "these things are designed for 16 year olds to throw them around".
Edit: The bit mentioned above is at 0:37 in this video: https://youtu.be/ClkytJa0ghc?t=37 - "we keep a couple of spares on board just in case", that's great but I'm wondering who in that sub knows how to pair an ancient Logitech gamepad and remap XInput like a kid playing Diablo.
That is on video and a joke during the interview, forget for a second that they're using a controller from 2005-era for a moment; at that point on something like an airplane or a battleship, you just caused an incident that requires maintenance testing to make sure you didn't just disable the fucking vehicle by throwing the controls around for fun.
No. Don't disregard this specific reckless decision even though it likely had nothing to do with whatever went wrong in this situation. The CEO of the company from the get-go abandoned any semblance of basic safety in engineering, and fired/sued the guy in charge of safety when he called it out. This controller is a metaphor for something that needs to immediately be regulated so that people like this can never get away with it again.
> 1. There had to be a certification process to use the controller, including risk analysis which would absolutely deny any attempt to
https://i.imgur.com/lBWlh3i.png
Answer: Look underneath the floor. The Altec Lansing ACS33 PowerCube 2.1 speaker system. $35 used on eBay and again from early 2000s era. -> https://i.imgur.com/fVdQ9Pc.png
Not safety critical, but so extremely indicative of how careless every element of this thing was handled before they started putting rich people in it and sending them 2.5mi underwater. It's as if they put it together by raiding my basement when I was in high school. Unbelievable.
It has to be hard for non-technical passagerare to judge these things, like the pre-tour disclaimer contract stating risks. I mean almost every house in CA tells you it will give you cancer.
I would assume to allow more precise control - longer sticks will give you a smaller input for the same amount of travel and require more travel to achieve the same input.
They don't, in the BBC Travel episode "Take Me to Titanic" about this team and their sub, they did a dive with customers and almost had to abort because the controllers stopped working.
Then, when they reached the bottom of the sea, they were stuck going around in circles on the sea floor because the keymappings on the controllers stopped working. They almost had to abort the dive until someone on the surface had troubleshooted the issue and found out that the keys were incorrectly mapped to the sub's controls.
It turned out that the 'left' direction key on the gamepad actually mapped to the 'forward' motion of the submarine, and all of the gamepad controls were incorrectly mapped.
They only found out about the incorrect mapping after a dozen hours underwater and once they reached the seafloor.
It was amateur hour from the get-go.
To find their way around, they were literally dead reckoning on the bottom of the seafloor without any navigation systems. They had no voice or video communications with their team on the surface, and they relied on that team's text messages to help them adjust their dead reckoned position.
I'll admit I absolutely don't have this adventurous spirit, and I admire those who do. I'm sincerely praying for their successful rescue. But some of this does seem careless and possibly negligent.
There is something to be said for protecting people who would sign up for such an experience while misjudging the risk, or assuming that some government agency does provide oversight. Though, customers seem to have been informed that this is not the case: https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1671120043126423553
But apart from that, if someone wants to build a lego submarine and use it to dive to the Titanic, they should have every right to do so. It is their risk to take. Asking others to pay to join does not change this moral calculus. And yes, the people left on the surface have an ethical responsibility to not unreasonably refuse to rescue them when things to awry.
* You can't let rescue services decide who deserves to be rescued -- for so many obvious reasons it would be patronizing to list them
* People with a lot of money and no sense can fuck things up on a massive scale if we let them do whatever they wanted
* Human society is not a free-for-all. As much as the civil libertarian tendencies in me want to say 'sure, do whatever you want, just don't mess with anyone else's stuff', it really isn't that simple
Shame and societal norms are a big deal in keeping people in check. Just getting yelled at in public for doing something objectionable is enough to keep most people from spitting indoors or pissing on crowded subway platform or what-have-you.
When shame doesn't work we rely on laws. Laws must be universally enforced and they must be fairly enforced and they must be seen to be enforced.
If we allow idiots with stupid ideas to get lucky enough times then they become looked up to and the shame goes away.
To the same end if the shame doesn't stop them we need to physically stop them or take away their ability to do the societally harmful thing they want to do.
People need to re-learn that you should be embarrassed for failing when what you strove to do was stupid and destructive.
Believe it or not, new laws aren't always the answer. You can't bubble-wrap the world and you will make it a worse place for everyone if you try.
Let's at least wait for the failure analysis reports before calling for congressional hearings. In other words, don't send a lawyer to do an engineer's job.
Rescue services do have a point where they will decide not to continue. During the Tham Luang cave rescue (the thai football boys that got stuck in a cave) there was a period where the rescue services decided that continuing was just too dangerous. It was only because of a handful private cave divers was crazy enough to try a exceptional dangerous idea that those children got out there alive, and had it failed then those cave divers would have basically received all the blame.
The case do illustrate how far into the extreme we have to go. The local rescue services gave up and gave the job to nation service. The national service gave up and gave it to the military (with international support). The military gave up, and then through almost a backdoor, a few individuals tried a Hail Mary attempt which against all odds worked well enough to get everyone home.
There are activities where people has to accept that rescue is limited or zero. If you go hiking in no man land then there is a real risk of rescue service not being able to locate you. People who attempt sailing around the world has the risk of being "lost to sea". Cave explorers both dry and wet has to accept that rescue attempts are done based on what is feasible. Same goes for wreck divers.
We could argue that those risky activities should be illegal (or shamed), but the counter argument is that a lot of activities are just inherently risky. Sports generate a huge amount of injuries. Motorcycles are viewed by health professionals as organ donor generators. Extreme sports are extreme, but they tend to also follow more rigorous training and certification in order to address those risk.
There are always going to be distinctions. We allow motorcycles but we don't allow motorized wheelbarrows, or unicycles that can go 60mph. Why? History and tradition, practicality -- whatever the reason, it doesn't necessarily have to make sense and it surely wasn't designed that way. No one makes the standards to which we hold people -- but we are allowed to complain when we don't feel they are in line with a healthy society.
I've heard dumber ideas, such as....
unicycles that can go 60mph
A hand-guided mecha-wheelbarrow would be incredibly helpful for people who would like to do more of their own gardening and landscaping but who don't have the physique for it. I'm now going to spend half a day thinking about how something like that could be built to work reliably, economically, and safely, while other people on HN have probably already spent half a day thinking about how to prohibit it.
Then, back to that unicycle thing. Your "bad ideas" make fascinating engineering challenges. Gotta give credit where it's due.
What’s next? Are we going to start patrolling for DSVUIs, breathalyzing submarine captains at random?
Are you saying that commercial marine pilots should not be held to be sober when operating a passenger carrying vessel?
We don't breathalyze pilots when they board the plane, despite them being responsible for hundreds of people at a time, and millions of flights complete every year just fine.
This all will be better discussed after the recovery or memorials or whatever (Godspeed to them, I honestly hope for a miracle)
This metaphor is extremely double edged, especially in Silicon Valley ethos. When it fails, everyone piles on about the game controller and the lack of ‘flight worthiness.’ When it works they are lauded as heroes because of the extreme savings of using proven COTS products. The drone pilots are a great example, some officer got a nutty idea to try a game controller as his command had “more experience” with them and their success rates improved; now we are talking about it.
Space and the deep sea are the extreme limits, I think ‘regulation’ is really difficult because it is risky no matter who does it. In a way, this is the ultimate regulation that is going on here. And we still don’t know what happened or what could have failed yet.
But this is why regulations exist in the first place. That's like saying we shouldn't regulate surgery, because it's always risky.
We should require certain credentials and safety measures for people who want to take civilians to the ocean floor in a tiny sub. I don't think that should be a controversial take.
The onus to make sure that a service they are going to use isn't any more dangerous than it has to be, shouldn't be on the consumer. I don't want to live in a society that thinks it's acceptable to hand-wave death and suffering away as if human lives are acceptable collateral in the "free market" correcting itself.
Customers would still understand that the thing they're going to do is super dangerous, but they should be able to rest easy knowing that the company they're using for this meets some minimal level of safety.
Whatever you feel about Elon Musk, I appreciate his distinction in approach between crewed and un-crewed craft at SpaceX. I'm paraphrasing but he has said that when something is uncrewed, you can push it to the limit over and over again to push the technology fwd. But the second you have people on board (i.e. Crew Dragon), the margin for error goes down to zero. There are unavoidable risks, but you want to be damn sure you've minimized the avoidable ones. So you can be both -- a fast moving startup, and a "safe" organization.
Obv we still know so little about the Titan, but what upsets me is that the 'uncrewed' extreme testing does not (afaik) seem to have been particularly rigorous.
That it was a game controller? OK, not necessarily a big deal. Hopefully they'd take two of them just in case, even with a high-quality game controller, but still, might be OK.
That it was a game controller not from one of the major console manufacturers? And a cheap one, at that? I can only assume people not taking that as a serious WTF haven't used many of those lately (by which I mean in the last 15+ years). If you buy from any but a handful of trusted brands, these days—and Logitech ain't one of them, it's almost, but not quite, entirely the three console manufacturers, and the exceptions are not cheap—you can expect the device to suck from day 1 and to die completely within a year, even if subjected to no abuse. You may luck out and it won't, but if you deviate from that guidance, you're very likely buying garbage unsuited even to home use.
If someone told me they bought a $30 Logitech controller for their Playstation emulator box, I'd tell them to buy a Playstation or XBox controller instead when it breaks.
Why do you blame Silicon Valley for that?
They knew things could not be done and kept up the charade for long enough to profit off of it, and hopefully get away.
Theranos is product of the same culture. Company founder chases a goal they do not understand, and convinces investors its right around the corner. In actuality they have no clue.
There is no foundamental difference between theranos diagnosis and tesla autopilot.
The only reason we call theranos fraud is that we know conclusively that their goal is impossible. We have not yet accepted that autopilot is.
No we only know that their approach was wrong. Here is a preprint of a paper describing detection of 12 different types of cancer from a single drop of blood:
The problem isn’t the volume of blood, it’s that blood drawn from finger capillaries is not a representative sample for diagnostic purposes. There are plenty of tests that are even more sensitive, but they require a proper sample drawn directly from a vein or artery.
But we're talking about submarine that already dived, not something that never had a chance of working in the first place
This can be said for many, many successful companies. Your category is too wide.
So some would call it MVP and others would call it fraud. Until it is really being implemented as advertised.
An MVP means something that has just about the core functionality, with bells and whistles and newer use cases coming on later.
Social media has shown to be pretty destructive. I don’t think there are many low stakes areas for software. It’s all impactful and potentially harmful at scale.
The reason NASA did that is because the stakes were so high. They couldn’t send a firmware update in the middle of a journey and the reputation of America hinged on the success of NASA.
If you are under that level of pressure, you make sure you dot your i’s and cross your t’s.
> Lochridge’s concerns mainly focused on the company’s decision to rely on sensitive acoustic monitoring – cracking or popping sounds made by the hull under pressure – to detect flaws, rather than a scan of the hull.
Lochridge said the company told him no equipment existed that could perform such a test on the 5in-thick (12.7cm-thick) carbon-fiber hull.
“This was problematic because this type of acoustic analysis would only show when a component is about to fail – often milliseconds before an implosion – and would not detect any existing flaws prior to putting pressure on to the hull,” Lochridge’s counterclaim said.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/21/titanic-s...
https://www.olympus-ims.com/en/insight/ruckus-composites-ins...
He says that testing of the composite materials is really difficult in comparison with metal. As they fail catastrophically without material stress.
Quotes like: "Lochridge’s concerns mainly focused on the company’s decision to rely on sensitive acoustic monitoring – cracking or popping sounds made by the hull under pressure – to detect flaws, rather than a scan of the hull."
are quite chilling in hindsight
If they were knocking on the hull, at least we can be fairly certain that the hull did not implode.
Could be a pop of the hull that then flooded the inside almost immediately. Would like to see failure tests of how these kinds of hulls fail.
Other subs that failed with other hull designs were pretty gruesome, like Scorpion
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/19/16333376/us-navy-military...
https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-military-video-ga...
https://www.pyrosoft.co.uk/blog/2007/11/04/army-fly-uav-spy-...
What's more perplexing is using a wireless one
There is no reason why these controllers can't be used over some other "industrial" controller, as long as you design the system appropriately to account for failures, which you should be doing regardless of what controller you select.
>Further, the craft was designed to reach depths of 4,000 meters (13,123ft), where the Titanic rested. But, according to Lochridge, the passenger viewport was only certified for depths of up to 1,300 metres (4,265ft), and OceanGate would not pay for the manufacturer to build a viewport certified for 4,000 metres.
Doesn't mean that the design isn't mathematically sound to far deeper.
Failing to test is a choice, similar to the choice made by a software engineer who determines, without testing, that their production service has no bugs.
If a component's flaw can only be detected right before a failure, we need statistical analysis of multiple such failures being intentionally induced to estimate the component's limits.
Not finding or knowing about existing limits or flaws is the direct result of not looking for them.
As a Quality Assurance person, this is what drives me up the wall, across the ceiling, and down the other wall.
You can always do a test run. Not doing that test run is essentially saying every person you subject to that system is not worth the trouble of doing the test.
I thought the latest round of NASA missions were using commodity hardware and taking the fail-early-fail-often approach (at least compared to the old days)? And in doing so have delivered, all failures included, the most bang per buck of any NASA missions?
Not saying I'd trust my life to a gamepad alone, but pragmatism is a virtue in engineering.
I’d trust it to an Xbox, PlayStation controller, they’re some of the most reliability tested input devices ever. Most people are freaking out because it’s some known glitchy budget gamepad.
Yeah someone must have it but we’re talking most of my life here no issues, I’d trust these controllers.
In practical terms if push came to shove, an Xbox or PS controller is probably more reliable than most equivalent devices. My stock phrase when comparing normal functions with Safety Instrumented Functions is "I'd trust this with my car, but not my life."
For instance the mars helicopter, Ingenuity, was effectively an expendable part of the Perseverance rover mission. Even if it never took off they'd still consider the overall mission a success. That it has worked so well despite using commodity hardware has been a nice surprise and might result in NASA using more of it, but the Perseverance rover still used proper rad-hardened chips and other specialised spacecraft components.
They're also definitely not using commodity hardware and fail-fast-fail-often on crewed aircraft.
Well yes, and this enables making all the stuff that we have now like Google, YouTube or ChatGPT. If those things were developed with NASA approach to code quality, we might never have had them.
What matters is not the process, but the result. For example, SpaceX are using iterative approach in their design and they now have the most reliable rocket in history.
The top comment in this thread seems to imply that "NASA" approach is inherently better, especially for safety-critical applications. My view is that from the point of view of safety, the approach doesn't really matter and what matters is the results, i.e. reliability. At the same time from the point of view of development velocity iterative approach is clearly better.
In case of the sunk submarine, it seems that the company followed iterative, "SpaceX" approach, but they didn't actually iterate enough to make their sub seaworthy.
But you won't know the 'results' until you have a catastrophe and can do a post-mortem and find out where you went wrong. The approach does matter because one approach is 'let's do everything we can to prevent the catastrophe'. I mean, the approach is safety.
I'd argue this is in fact superior to NASA's approach, which rarely allows for uncrewed testing (and spectacular RUDs), leading to technological stagnation and catastrophic organizational risks. (i.e. internal resistance to doing anything about the O-ring problem on Challenger, even though they had been alerted about the potential issue).
Second, it's all very well "iterating until you succeed" but that's not a good approach when live humans are involved in the iterating. "Move fast and break things" is not the same as "move fast and break people". Space X, after all, had to prove a certain level of reliability before NASA let them fly people to ISS.
Google doesn't need belt and suspenders development, human safety systems usually do.
Basically you cannot, no matter how much money you spend, prevent every possible mistake, or even every "obvious" mistake, because "obvious" is often only obvious in hindsight. And going too far on the side of risk avoidance leaves you frozen in time, unable to progress, even as you continue to make mistakes - which drives you even further into extremes of risk avoidance. Of course on the other end being completely cavalier about safety leaves you making mistakes you both can and should have foreseen.
So I suppose we'll just get to see which this was. If anything my prediction here would be that they started becoming so comfortable with these dives that they impacted the Titanic, going for that epic view, resulting in a cascade of system failures or even a breach, bearing in mind you're already going to be near critical pressure thresholds. Absolutely zero basis for my prediction, but I think it's much more probable than a controller failure. They had redundancies on the controllers, and could surface without them. But human hubris has no such constraints.
If everything else fails wouldn't it just fall to the bottom of the ocean? Even if it can survive that depth that only sounds good on paper. Nobody could get to you.
As long as it can jettison the ballast (and is not tangled up in something on the seabed, say, the Titanic), it will come to the surface.
(I don't know anything about subs) you could even store a few batteries in the ballast.
The puzzling bit, from what I have gathered, is that the ballast is not fail safe.
In particular, this company used carbon fiber materials that were neither tested nor certified for the intended operational depth, and they also did not do extensive testing like you do when you certify a craft.
Of course, certifying it just means that independent experts take a look at the design and use sensors during dives. All of these vehicles are experimental. But not even trying is negligent.
They could have dropped it to the bottom of the sea with weights, have a timer release the weights and hauled it back up. Cheaper than renting any testing facility on earth.
They could have done this multiple times on the same hull until it imploded. If a month of dropping it and retrieving it doesn't result in implosion, then it's probably safe enough to put people into it.
There was no need to make its first test of that pressure with people in it.
Don't get in your car. Don't do anything. At some point, you're going to take some risk, and it really is a risk/reward question. I think I can do this just as safely by breaking the rules."
https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/20/titanic-sub-ceo-was-worried-a...
Usually, the people in these sports say if the worst were to happen to them, they accept that risk and wouldn’t want their fate to stop other people from following their passions. That the feeling of being alive chasing these dreams fulfills a part of them, and they would be lost without that fulfillment.
We all do take risks for our own happiness, different people just want different things from life and will drawn that line in different places.
My guess is the five people on the sub would not want this incident to stop people from attempting to visit the Titanic.
If it's worth making, make 2 or 3 of with at least one slated for being destroyed at one point.
Space Shuttle Enterprise never saw Space or the launch pad. It was still made and flown.
At the end of the day if there's a rockslide, there's nothing you can do, so you have to be willing to accept some level of risk.
But at the same time, the majority of mountaineering deaths are due to people taking unnecessary risks (for the sport). Being poorly prepared in terms of gear, or making poor decisions, or not being educated enough in climbing, safety assessment, and rescue techniques.
There's absolutely a lot you can do to mitigate the risk, and I think even the experienced mountaineers who choose to take more risk (say, traveling lighter and placing less protection in order to cover more ground in a day) don't advocate for that as the standard way to practice the sport.
I'll be honest, I've had a few close calls myself, but I've taken those as lessons in how to do things more safely going forward, because I value doing things safely more than "bagging more peaks".
I guess if your dream is something like "climb every mountain" accepting more risk is necessary.
But I don't see why the people on this Titanic expedition couldn't have achieved their goals while spending a bit more time on R&D + QA.
Also, people should be making these risk decisions for themselves, not others. The CEO may have had it coming to him, but I feel bad for the other crew on board if they weren't able to decline the expedition, or weren't provided adequate information about the testing that had been done.
I saw that claim, and wondered what it entailed. The founder is clearly in the mold of testing mission-critical/life or death systems in production, while skirting or floating the rules. Such a claim is like one of those logos you see on the front of software start ups home pages, claiming some usage by Google, MIT, or CERN, without any verification or context.
I would largely tune the media out on this. They have no more special insight than you or I. All that's known is that a sub has gone dark; everything else is speculation. Within 3 days we'll know for certain whether the people on the ship have been rescued, or are dead. In case it's the latter, we won't have any realistic idea of what happened until the sub, or its remains, are recovered. And that may simply not happen.
[1] - https://www.oceangate.com/news-and-media/press-releases/2020...
The older I get, the more I think this.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/missions/apollo1.h...
https://history.nasa.gov/Apollo204/invest.html
Where a small fire in a controlled environment killed people in 30 seconds?
or this, where they didn't listen to the engineer?
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/28/464744781...
NASA isn't a magical place where they don't mess things up
This is an extremely dangerous attitude though (obviously). In the BBC documentary, the thrusters are out of orientation and they just solve it by saying 'turn the controller, since right is your new forward.'
In the documentary it's played off as fun, but there's a non-zero chance the sub is currently stuck within seafloor wreckage and it could 100% be the fault of the controller.
Bad steering certainly wouldn't prevent them from dropping ballast (which they imply is the ultimate failsafe), but it is not a zero-failure-risk system.
Damn, if I were the person/team responsible for that mistake, I don't think I could live that down.
Or because investor X wants real assurances that something like the current situation doesn’t occur.
I think a good example of a balanced company in this space, is SpaceX.
They’ve significantly reduced the cost of launching into space, have quite rapid development for their industry, yet they seem to take necessary precautions and safety measures when needed.
They aren’t afraid to test things and have them fail, and been able to not let bad PR (because some conflate successful testing with a successful launch) take them down as a company.
Maybe the “SpaceX” way to have done the sun dive would be to have a test where an automatic diver is used to send the sun down, or some first principles approach is done from the building phase. A Logitech gaming controller is surely a canary for other practices they’ve done
Like with most things, extremes in either direction is bad, I think there is a middle ground between using logitech controllers, and being sooo paralyzing on safety (or rather the bureaucracy of "Safety™") that not only do you never really get off the ground, but come full circle and a $0.50 o ring you failed to test in freezing conditions blows up your entire rocket even after you spent millions having human read your C code...
Management at Morton Thiokol and NASA disregarded those concerns because they had already scrubbed the launch several times.
Bureaucracy is forged from the furnace of past adversities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0fpz9zw
and honestly a lot of it seems quite amateur hour. One of the steering motors was fitted backwards. When they discovered this, at the bottom of the ocean and a few hundred feet from Titanic, the solution they used was to hold the gamepad at right angles to compensate. That time they proceeded with the tour and made it back, but I can see how things could have gone a lot more wrong.
My point was, why would this content be gated.
Not saying it's not possible but why it is quite the hard thing to get out of, and not spend liscens money while doing so, makes sense. I would guess someone has made these calculations once or twice too.
Pretty sure it's not that they "just don't" though.
Except that the BBC does it all the time.
You can watch lots of BBC content - even current stuff - in other countries.
ABC in Australia, and Acorn streaming or PBS OTA in the US.
I know I should just leave these sort of replies alone rather than say "WTF?", but WTF, dude?
When the trio that made Too Gear a huge show moved to Amazon's Grand Tour, one of the things that suffered was the music, because I guess Amazon didn't want to bother getting licenses to broadcast music in many many countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Select_(streaming_service)
Well, as 'TV Licence', since that's the spelling of the noun outside the US ;)
Last paragraph:
"This ship is exactly what the Navy needs, when it needs it," agreed EB President John P. Casey, who was on board during the trials. "There is no substitute for the Virginia-class submarine."
Testing included its first dive to max depth.
Look, I despise VCs as much as the next guy, but this doesn’t smell like a typical cynical VC money grab, like at all. To me it smells like an ultra-extreme sport. To ordinary people, it’s extraordinarily stupid, they’re certainly in over their heads, but nobody casually signs up to go to 4000m depth without being well aware of the risks.
There was one article I read last year (don't have it here) where he claimed his hard costs were $1M per voyage to cover fuel and consumables. So the $250k buy-in was literally a break-even on his expenses (he carries 4 passengers paying the fee, plus himself in the sub). None of that covers any R&D and he had some very respectable people working for him, including engineers from Boeing, NASA, and Northdrop Grumman. So we can assume those were hefty salaries for his R&D team.
I'm sure they were scrappy too, hence the "cobbled" together nature of things. But it does seem like this was a true startup in ever sense of the word.
Unfortunately it might be leaning closer to the Theranos type of startup where he might have oversold his capabilities to keep the ball rolling and investors happy.
(Lesson learned the hard way)
It's probably the goal, but complex endeavors mean you need to iterate to get there
This is reckless and it is stupid and excusemaking for it has no moral grounds.
Excuse me, there are several companies operating submarines that visit the Titanic with tourists?
Submersibles visited the Challenger Deep in the 1960s. We know how to build them, we know how to build them effectively, and we know many of the ways not to build them. "But we added tourists!" is not a meaningful factor here unless what you meant-but-wouldn't-say is "but we value engineered it!" in which case: yes, exactly, that's what safety rules are designed to put guardrails around.
It’s a tragedy, but high risk activities are by definition going to have a few.
And if you tried to take paid passengers on a homebuilt uncertified aircraft today you would go to jail. This isn't the early days. The challenger deep was reached over 60 years ago. We've been building submarines longer than airplanes. We know how to do this stuff safely. This was negligence.
Or then you take things slow and you end up like NASA who has not launched any new rocket in years. Is that better?
Science, discovery, boldly going where no one has gone before? Absolutely safety is going to be somewhat compromised. Taking rich people to the gawk at the Titanic? I, personally, think you're a bit of dick for MacGyvering a vessel together and calling it good enough.
It says something like "this experimental craft has not been certified by any regulatory body". They probably have to be in international waters to put it in water.
If you want to carry paying passengers then things are different, but that's why they were officially crew.
(Crew members who are paying to be there has a very long history. One of the last lines operating sailing ships, in the 1920s and 30s, made money from merchant marine cadets whose countries still required them to have a certain amount of experience as crew of a sailing vessel to get their ticket.)
Looking at the accounts reported to date, the OceanGate engineering culture was basically non-existent. Their test program was extremely lightweight to say the least, and the results that came back from what little hull testing they did do were ignored, resulting in the dismissal of an internal whistleblower [1]. We also learned that there were flammable materials within the pressure vessel, no practical contingency plan to speak of, no emergency beacon fitted, the list goes on. The whole thing was just cobbled together, not fully thought out or vetted, and yet the intent was to journey to one of the most unforgiving environments imaginable.
But getting back to the account of the reversed motor above -- it is one of the purest examples I can now think of where life imitates art. Piloting a stolen (but seaworthy) deep-sea submersible to the wreckage of the Titanic -- that was only able to make right-hand turns due to a "sub club" anti-theft device -- was a major plot point in the pilot episode of the TV series "Pinky and the Brain". Narf.
[1] https://newrepublic.com/post/173802/missing-titanic-sub-face...
Stockton Rush, CEO of OceanGate: "so the pressure vessel is not MacGyver at all because that's where we work with Boeing and NASA and the University of Washington. Everything else can fail: your thrusters can go, your lights can go, you're still going to be safe"
"Mr. Kohnen said that Mr. Rush called him after reading the letter and told him that industry standards were stifling innovation."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/us/oceangate-titanic-miss...
As I get older, I see this sentiment as very naive. The tacit assumption seems to be that there is an agency, a government, an organization, that would review and approve such endeavors. But that's just not how the world works. You can't stop people from going to sea, or sending contraptions to the bottom. It's a very big world, filled with mostly ocean, and plenty of thrill-seekers who will attempt anything half-way reasonable. Even 10% reasonable. You can't stop that, and personally, I don't think its a good idea. To get it you'd need a nanny state that snoops on everyone and steps in to stop you "for your own safety". It's easy to imagine scenarios where this gets out of hand.
If it’s uncle bob in his garage I’d be fine with lack of regulation, but when he starts commercially selling his trips he’d need to pass safety standards.
So literally, it is like, "the four of you's job is to look out this window, make sure it doesn't fog up, my job is to do everything else, alright let's dive"
It doesn't sound like that was the case here.
In a truly free world, people are allowed to make dumb, risky decisions.
It is a necessary component of a complex society.
The main distinction between a self-determined vs authoritarian govt is the independence or lack thereof of all of the govt and society's institutions, including he legislative, executive, & judicial branches of govt, and in general society the press, industry, academy, religious orgs, social orgs, sports, etc. In self-determined societies, these are all quite independent and have a balance of power. In an authoritarian society, the branches of govt and institutions of society are coerced to serve the executive(s) (dictator or oligarchs).
A little bit of regulation does not make a government authoritarian.
Also, desiring to give up power to an authority is authoritarianism (at least according to Oxford): “ the enforcement or advocacy of strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom.”
We struggle to regulate giant industries, there is no chance we can regulate every crazy idea that someone wants to try out.
It’s not that hard, and in any case complexity does not imply authoritarianism.
To my knowledge DNV certification is part of insurance processes. The crew could have asked for such a certification if they wanted to reduce risk (they definitely had the cash).
It is all there, and just because you don't know about it and I cannot recite it all off the top of my head does not mean that it doesn't exist and that it could not be implemented. Regulators know how to find the right people to evaluate the risks and set suitable requirements. (That said, in some industries, regulatory capture and corruption is a real problem, but it does not seem to be the case here.)
As someone who has dealt with certification bodies for designs critical to their operators lives I am well aware of the processes involved. In my experience regulators are often the least qualified to determine risks, since the most qualified people make more money on the other side of the fence. So regulators depend on following a rulebook rather than expert judgement. There are definitely rulebooks for submarines, but they are generally for naval applications with billions of resources, not to minisub expeditions.
The company was open that their design was cheap and cheerful and followed no certification or standard. The riders knew this and could have chosen more expensive, safer alternatives. But did they truly ‘know’ how much extra risk they were taking? I don’t think there’s any good way to judge that.
> “It seems that its main features are the non-acceptance of conflict and plurality as normal elements of politics, the will to preserve the status quo and prevent change by keeping all political dynamics under close control by a strong central power, and lastly, the erosion of the rule of law, the division of powers, and democratic voting procedures.”
Western democracies are not examples of authoritarianism, no matter how much they might interfere with the desire of rich people to prove they’re special.
And that goal cannot be achieved as long as there is 1) rule of law and 2) broadly independent branches of govt and societal institutions. A wannabe autocrat cannot successfully infringe on personal freedoms if (s)he cannot get the legislature, judiciary, press, etc. to go along with it.
And I totally get adventurism, having been an internal-level alpine ski racer, rock climbing instructor, champion sportscar racer, etc.
The key here is how much these "adventurers" are putting the rest of society at risk. Because, right this minute, you (if you are a US or Canadian resident) and I are paying $$millions for the rescue/recovery of the asshat CEO and his four sucker customers.
I think a better regulatory solution may be to require putting up a bond covering the cost of rescue and/or cleanup if something goes awry, or sign-off that there would be no rescue attempt whatsoever (and a bond to cover cleanup of a historic site). But it is not authoritarian to say that "No, we won't allow such adventures without meeting sound safety and systems standards."
These clowns didn't even want to pay to qualify the window in the sub past 1/3 of the planned operating depth, they had not even an emergency signal buoy, or some way of making/emitting a unique sound so they could be quickly located (Canadian sonobuoys detected some clanging sounds yesterday, but they are still not found).
If society really wants any dolt to fabricate any contraption and expect the rest of society to pay to rescue them, that is a societal decision. But it is also totally ok to say NO to that, or put on some basic requirements.
These are neither slippery slopes nor authoritarianism, and it is wrong to cry "authoritarianism" at any rule you might not like; it can be legitimately discussed without catastrophizing.
Regulations do make our life smooth, even if there is a tendency to go overboard.
For subs, it is a tiny number of people and risks are nearly impossible to assess.
We have subs that have been touring the oceans for several decades, so we have a pretty good idea of what is unsafe and what works.
this is total fabrication, we have submarines for 200 years. WW1 german u-boats were safer than this piece of crap
If people want to take huge risks, then so be it. Whether they build the sub themselves or pay and give that responsibility to a proxy, it is still up to them to make their own risk assessment.
I dont see how this is any different. Perhaps you personally have a "so be it" libertarian view but thats not the view the government takes.
If a ship or submarine does not register to any country, I think most coast guards will assume it to be pirates or drug smugglers. And they will probably surrender and arrest anyone on board or sink you if it comes to that.
LMAO.
Remember the proposition: you’re going to dive 2.4 miles underwater, in the middle of the Atlantic.
On a nuclear sub with the best collision avoidance and mapping data available, with highly regimented procedure, this is still a riskier proposition than most people appreciate.
But you’re going to do it in a carbon fiber hull. This is at the very minimum an adventure, with a very high risk of turning into a disaster. You sign the liability waiver and have the balls to get on board the boat, and have the further commitment to board the submersible day-of.
I’m not saying this to blame them or extol their courage. It just is what it is, and sometimes - oftentimes - with adventure sports and tourism, we don’t need to search for bad guys and villains. It’s risky living and this is what it looks like sometimes.
> There is definitely a difference, but it doesn’t really matter philosophically speaking.
I'm unconvinced. The phrase "philosophically speaking" is very vague. Which philosoph(y/ies)?
> If people want to take huge risks, then so be it.
You didn't say who is affected by said risks. Only the person taking the huge risk? What about externalities? "Huge" risks would include an existential threat to an individual and thus anyone who knows or depends on them.
> Whether they build the sub themselves or pay and give that responsibility to a proxy, it is still up to them to make their own risk assessment.
Sounds like we're in the domains of legal and/or moral philosophy. The phrase "up to them" suggests a responsibility, a kind of normative claim. Perhaps a responsibility to make wise decisions? Perhaps a responsibility that cannot be transferred or delegated?
Using the phrase "philosophically speaking" invites these kinds of questions, particularly when the underlying philosophy is unsaid and its reasoning unclear.
Fundamentally every risky decision is up to the individual. Even trusting the regulator is a decision (I don’t trust some regulators in my country because they have a bad record for competence, so I avoid/minimise using things that they regulate). Therefore the final ‘responsibility’ for your safety is always personal, unless you were forced on board, or lied to about the construction.
Legally it’s anyone’s guess who is responsible, that depends on the polity involved and the political philosophy it uses (libertarianism or authoritarianism being the 2 extremes).
I think we should protect those who truly cannot judge (children and mentally handicapped) but in this case it was grown men taking a risk for the chance of a reward. I hope they are found alive and well but I think they had every right to go aboard.
It seems you are trying to say something along the lines of:
A. In cases where an individual has the freedom to make decisions (i.e. not coerced or manipulated)
B. The individual bears moral responsibility for the consequences of those decisions
To what degree did I convey what you were hoping to convey?
This is an flawed argument for at least two reasons:
1. The consequences flow from many people's actions. Figuring out credit and blame is a hard project in philosophy, even theoretically. In practice, it can often be impossible.
2. Humans have imperfect abilities to predict consequences
Point A does not always hold -- not even most of the time. Individual conscious awareness and volitional control is limited. We are largely driven by subconscious and non-volitional parts of our brains. Not to mention by environmental constraints.
I'm not sure I understand your criticism. In this case, for (1) who else but the individuals decided to go on the expedition? Where is the lack of freedom? And what is the relevance of 2? Are you saying people are not responsible for their actions because they don't have perfect prediction power? Doesn't it follow that no-one is responsible for anything?
To what degree is it reasonable to hold people to prescriptive standards given the presence of imperfect conscious awareness, limited volition, and constrained rationality?
When one keep these realities things in mind, it can challenge us to better talk about what we mean wrt accountability.
Some might suggest that “the buck stops” where free will begins. Such a statement requires a lot of unpacking.
I don’t have room to unpack even a small fraction of the ideas in play here. So I think I’ll end with a few things.
1. In the United States popular culture (for example) there is an assumed but unexamined belief in conscious free will. This does not hold up to philosophical nor scientific scrutiny.
2. Unfortunately, simplistic moral claims have a tendency to shift our thinking away from good analysis towards judgmentalism. Many people here on HN know how to reason under uncertainty wrt debugging or attack trees. That same level of rigor needs to be used when analyzing human behavior and ethics.
3. When I say accountability, I think analyzing it in a consequentialist way might be the most useful.
For example, if someone drives particularly dangerously and puts others at risk, some interventions are justified. The calculus can be very complicated, and some of the key data may not be known with sufficient confidence. But I do think there are core principles that apply. I would say the dangerous driver might “deserve” a license suspension, for example, not because they had the free will to do otherwise, but because of the consequences.
There are lots of interesting ways to understand dangerous driver scenarios.
A. Take the exact same person and compare their behavior while seated in 150 hp vehicle as compared to a 400 hp vehicle. The latter environment provides more temptation and more opportunity for dangerous driving. Is an individual who opts for the quicker car thus morally culpable to some degree? Or does does it depend upon their levelheadedness and driving skills?
B. In some sense, our entire infrastructure in history that led up to incentivizing automobiles is a huge factor in predicting behavior patterns, vehicle and pedestrian accidents and deaths, inefficient land use, and more. How much blame should we “dole out” particular individuals over the course of history that led us here?
C. In some situations, it could be argued that driving is immoral, particularly when you have other options for transportation. This is kind of a raw deal for the individual who had nothing to do with how we got stuck in such a situation. But it also demonstrates that some people may hold individuals morally responsible even though one person are only a tiny part of the situation. This highlights how individualism run amok and unscientific views of free will can sometimes sabotage comprehensive rational thinking about ethics. To speak very loosely when I see an accident on the road, it is easy to point to the proximate causes such as a distracted driver or worn out tires. But we must not overlook the deeper systemic causal factors. If we want to progress as a society, we need to solve problems, not scapegoat.
## My Take
An unexpected benefit of dispensing with free will is that judgmentalism doesn’t get in the way of solving problems.
In this view, we justly lock up criminals not because they could’ve done otherwise. We lock them up for the exact opposite reason: their brains and bodies make the unacceptable behavior a predictable pattern at some level.
I didn’t mean to frame them as a binary, I interpreted your premises as binary and just wanted to better understand them.
You say it’s a matter of degree, but I fail to see to what degree you think the individual is ‘responsible.’ You are happy to lock up a criminal because ‘their brain and bodies’ make a predictably bad behaviour, so it seems like you do think the individual is ‘responsible.’ In the same way I think we should allow people’s ‘brain and body’ to put themselves in harms way if it doesn’t predictably harm anyone else, thus we essentially hold them ‘responsible.’ I don’t think this is ‘judgementalism’ but rather just the best way to approach a complex situation (as you have shown). I cannot see any good alternatives.
At some point all this complexity needs to be discarded and we need to make a decision either way. We could write tomes about how complex this all is, but it doesn’t change the simplicity of how those intangible arguments become a tangible policy.
Fundamentally everything is a binary when it comes to behaviour, you either take a risk or you don’t. The complexity is fun to unpack but doesn’t fundamentally matter to what our behaviour is. In this case I think our behaviour should be to allow people to make risky personal decisions and accept the consequences for those decisions. It is unworkable to think society can or should hold everyone’s hand all the time.
> You are happy to lock up a criminal because ‘their brain and bodies’ make a predictably bad behaviour, so it seems like you do think the individual is ‘responsible.’
I suppose we need to unpack various meaning(s) of “responsible” then.
To clarify, I don’t hold a person ‘responsible’ in the way most people do; e.g. many people will suggest someone deserves a punishment because they had the freedom to do otherwise. I reject the idea that people have conscious free will. The universe just unfolds; individual decisions flow from the laws of the universe.
To clarify my argument: incarceration is just when the other options don’t work; i.e. the consequences are undesirable.
So, for example, if it were possible to take a dangerous person and guarantee that they would not be in an environment or situation where they would be a danger again, I don’t see the point of judging or punishing them based solely on some (mistaken) notion that they could’ve done anything differently.
That said, punishment may be just to the extent that it dissuades future lawbreaking.
Yes, there are consequences to one’s actions, especially in a society that strives for mutual respect and the rule of law. I think this is what you mean by ‘responsibility’?
I don’t care for how many people use ‘responsibility’.
(1) Too often such a meaning is so skewed towards individualism that it almost by definition rules out exploring collective action or systematic failures.
(2) It is easy to find the last proximate thing that “went wrong” and hold the person who did it “responsible”. But what about the more significant factors?
In so many cases, I think people expect people to be ‘responsible’ in ways that defy statistics. We need to stop “blaming” individuals and instead focus on solving problems.
Look at the number of car crashes. Are we really going blame the individuals? It seems awfully predictable that this many people are going to die. I touched on this issue in my above comment. It is much smarter to treat this as a system. Singling out particular people doesn’t solve the problem.
Another example. The phrase “don’t drink and drive” is good advice, but if you look at the number of times that drunk people get behind the wheel, it is clear that we can’t rely on individual responsibility to get the job done. Hence social movements for designated drivers, rules for people who serve alcohol, and more.
Judgmentalism is tricky to pin down. I try to distinguish an assessment from a judgment; an assessment is about facts whereas a judgment is about values. So when I talk about judgmentalism, I’m talking about this tendency of people to look at other people’s mistakes, and say/think “they should have known better and acted differently”.
I think I understand your perspective. Just to check: what is your stance on seatbelt laws and why?
I think it is in society’s interest to dissuade people from doing idiotic things. Of course, there is value in individual freedom too.
How often do completely victimless crimes occur?. The person who doesn’t wear their seatbelt ends up going to the hospital. That requires money and resources. Due to insurance and/or public funding, that person is not going to pay the full cost of that visit. Even if they paid the full cost, it still would have an effect on other people wanting to use the service around the same time.
> In this case I think our behaviour should be to allow people to make risky personal decisions and accept the consequences for those decisions.
Except that society likes having people around that are, well, alive, unmaimed, etc. for many reasons — for intrinsic value and also to contribute to society.
I’m not sure I have a comprehensive theory about the morality protecting people from themselves. But e.g. we know that humans are susceptible to alcoholism, so we try some things. I don’t think anyone thinks it is ethical to just let someone drink themselves to death — at least not until all other feasible options have been exhausted. Defining feasibility is not obvious. At some point we might say that the alcoholic’s life is not worth saving given the treatment cost.
> It is unworkable to think society can or should hold everyone’s hand all the time.
Loaded language again.
This is obvious but narrow. I grant that we don’t have unlimited money to do everything that we might want. But that has no bearing on what we should do with the money we have.
So I would ask you specify a principle that guides you.
When it comes to ethics, many thinkers define one or more or the following: principles, objectives, or ideal future states.
Most sensible ethical systems care about human flourishing and reducing human suffering. To those ends, there is nothing intrinsically wrong with getting help from a friend or a government. Whether or not social programs make sense is a calculation not a statement of first principles.
We should not put individualism on a pedestal. Nor should we put conformity on a pedestal. Human flourishing cannot be maximized by single-mindedly pursuing one narrow -ism.
I agree with seatbelt laws since it is simple to regulate, doesn’t change driving very much and saves a huge number of lives and resources. Most people don’t understand how dangerous driving truly is.
There are a lot of differences between that and the minisub situation. One is scale, this doesn’t harm many people; another is relative danger, submarining is an incredibly dangerous activity (even naval vessels have major accidents). I think the main reason I don’t like suggestions to heavily regulate exploration is that it would basically prevent the activity occurring. We could ban all extreme sports and save many lives, but at what cost? I value the joy and excitement these things bring people, even with the massive danger.
Apologies for the loaded language, it probably doesn’t help the discussion. Sometimes I just can’t help myself (but I’m not responsible :P). Thanks for the interesting discussion.
You can apply binary categorization if you want, but that’s not what’s happening with the human body acting in the universe. Human actions have many degrees of freedom.
As one example, consider a cop deciding on how to respond to a vehicle stop. There are conservatively dozens of ways in which his response might vary. Does he call in for backup? How does he characterize the situation? How does approach the vehicle? What does he say to the driver? Does he place a hand on his gun? Does he draw a weapon?
As another example, consider a manager breaking some bad news to her employee. The possibilities for the human interaction are vast.
Why is it important to you to frame human actions or risk-taking as binary? Is it necessary for your argument? I struggle to see how.
But I’m also struggling to make sense of the moral philosophy you are outlining.
And my moral philosophy isn’t comprehensive or consistent, essentially I think there are some useful moral standards (eg golden rule) but when it comes to details I’m a relativist, we can choose what we want, there is no true right or wrong.
We can label these actions in many ways, such as analog or discrete.
To revisit my earlier question: Does it matter to your philosophy how we label them? Why?
In this case the binary action is getting in the sub or not. The outcome is dying or not. There is no analogue aspect of either. You can’t half enter a submarine or half die.
Decomposing things down to a binary is fundamentally how things work. We can analyse things to death and add our own mental/idealistic layers of continuity (like probabilities of outcomes or degrees of truthiness of statements), but the decisions that come from the analysis are always binary.
Which kind of moral relativism? There is quite a big difference between the various flavors...
> Descriptive moral relativism holds only that people do, in fact, disagree fundamentally about what is moral, with no judgment being expressed on the desirability of this.
> Meta-ethical moral relativism holds that in such disagreements, nobody is objectively right or wrong.
> Normative moral relativism holds that because nobody is right or wrong, everyone ought to tolerate the behavior of others even when large disagreements about morality exist.
> Said concepts of the different intellectual movements involve considerable nuance and aren't absolute descriptions.
Quotes from Wikipedia [1], even though I prefer the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy [2] for more detailed explanations.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_relativism
[2] https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/moral-relativism/#ForArg
You are technically correct that to apply a set of morals you have to use a set of morals. This tautological reasoning of course is obvious, but this reasoning does not get at the key parts of these different kinds of moral relativism.
Let’s take normative moral relativism. Do you accept this as a valid position? Is it consistent with your beliefs? Why?
…
Thanks for discussing. I think there are probably better forums for us to unpack these ideas. I think we disagree enough to make it interesting yet are clear and patient enough to make discussion possible. LMW if this subject area or another would be something that you would like to unpack further. I’m prototyping some unusual discussion UIs.
I’m interested in the discussion UI. For a while I’ve been thinking about how to turn discussions like this into knowledge graphs to make it easy for others to follow and contribute. If you’d like we could set up accounts on one of the philosophy forums to discuss this?
There is a difference between somebody selling me poison and somebody selling me “lemonade” that’s actually poison.
You can build your own plane and fly it with relatively few restrictions, but as soon as you a) manufacture a plane for sale to someone else, or b) get paid for transporting someone in it, the regulators become much much stricter.
The question of whether or not organisations, businesses, states, armed forces, educational institutions, self-declared medical providers, and other entities incur some obligation to preserve peoples lives - and if so in which ways and to what extents - are far from settled questions. It helps no one to adopt a hard-libertarian position, omit the framework being employed, and imply the matter is settled.
A fair number of regulatory efforts trace their roots to a groundswell of public distress in the aftermath of preventable deaths; and questions such as "should I, a computer programmer, be undertaking my own untrained risk assessment of the particular type of cladding used in Grenfell tower" are perfectly fair objections to a libertarian free-for-all position.
I’m not a hard line libertarian, I think regulations are good in many cases. But not in the case of high risk adventuring. If you want to climb Everest, visit the titanic or the stratosphere, then that’s up to you: the state need not hold your hand, the risks are obvious to anyone with eyes.
The fact that libertarians have a difficult time just goes to show how close minded and dogmatic universities are. If all flavours of opinions were respected enough for discussion then I think you would end up with less extremists online and in general.
I think the demarcation problem applies just as well to politics as to science. What is good policy? Impossible to know absolutely, so we must rely on heuristics, judgement and intuition. Claims to truly objective knowledge just don’t hold up. Regulators often fail, and in many cases no regulation is preferable. I can’t prove that, but critics can’t prove otherwise, so we discuss and learn and change our opinions as we go.
The Grenfell tower is good example of failure of regulation. And I think the fundamental problem _is_ over regulation. When regulations become bloated beyond the capacity to enforce them, most of them are ignored and the most obvious ones are the only ones enforced. If the regulation was simpler it would be easier to enforce because you would only focus on _critical_ aspects. Instead of simplifying, people campaign for more regulation, forgetting second order effects that make things less safe.
Seems like a worse deal than the war on drugs. At least you don't get many people breaking into houses or neglecting their children to pay for their next trip to the Titanic.
Let them go nuts. Tax it like you would a commoner with a loaf of bread, bill them in full for any rescue efforts, and let nature take its course.
I've worked at some companies that manage huge systems that affects tens of millions of people, which cause extremely severe problems if they break, and they are "cobbled" together with a surprising amount of metaphorical bubble gum and duct tape.
Every time I go somewhere new, I assume they have their shit together and I am surprised every time.
So no, it doesn't surprise me that an operation like this was cobbled together in the same fashion.
But when you use that approach on a new, one-off device with life-threatening consequences for failure, sooner or later you're going to find out that "testing in production" may not always be appropriate.
Look at e.g. Kubernetes. You can cobble something together on kubernetes and once you get it limping, the system will be running surprisingly well for being cobbled together, compared to e.g. a system cobbled together from one off bash scripts.
The point is just that any system that's being used successfully in production at scale has already been tested, has already broken in myriad ways both in testing and in production, and those issues have been addressed somehow - quite possibly by more cobbling together.
This doesn't somehow make the system "not actually cobbled together" - as I said, the implementation may still seem horrible to engineers. It just means that the points of failure that have actually arisen, whether in testing or production, have been addressed somehow, so that the system is able to function at scale.
A key point in all this is that factors like survivor bias are at play: you're not looking at an org that failed because of their cobbled-together system, you're looking at one that succeeded. Large orgs are also more likely to have more testing to help catch the issues with their cobbled-together systems.
This all means that if you try to use this approach on your experimental submarine that you're selling tickets for, you're trading off the almost certain loss of life of some of your passengers against the short-term time and cost savings achieved by poor engineering practices.
To quote Lord Farquaad, "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make."
Nowadays I expect something clumsy and mediocre, regardless of the organization, with very apparent problems and _maybe_ some bright spots somewhere in the system architecture.
Yes, my impression is that this feels naive, especially if reflects a more general viewpoint of surprise when organizations do negligent things. The law of large numbers combined with human nature seems to statistically all-but guarantee such failures over a few decades.
> ... The tacit assumption seems to be that there is an agency, a government, an organization, that would review and approve such endeavors.
No. You made that tacit assumption, not the commenter before you. This assumption makes it easy to setup a straw man.
> But that's just not how the world works. You can't stop people from going to sea, or sending contraptions to the bottom. It's a very big world, filled with mostly ocean, and plenty of thrill-seekers who will attempt anything half-way reasonable. Even 10% reasonable. You can't stop that...
This is a false dichotomy. A more apropos question is how to reduce undesirable outcomes.
> ... To get it you'd need a nanny state ...
"Nanny state" is loaded language, "... rhetoric used to influence an audience by using words and phrases with strong connotations. This type of language is very often made vague to more effectively invoke an emotional response and/or exploit stereotypes." - Wikipedia
> ... that snoops on everyone ...
More loaded language.
> and steps in to stop you "for your own safety".
More loaded language.
> It's easy to imagine scenarios where this gets out of hand.
Are you using the slippery slope fallacy? I'm not quite sure.
Regardless, wise public policy is not exclusively based on such an approach of imagining things getting out of hand. There are better ways. To name just one, scenario planning is a powerful way of combining probabilistic decision-making across potential scenarios.
You aren't explicitly stating your political philosophy, but I'd bet it underlies your thinking here. I just hope that you are open to hypothesis-testing and avoiding dogma.
## Useful Responses
There is a wide menu of public responses and/or policy instruments available to reduce undesirable outcomes and promote desirable ones.
It is an interesting question, I think, not one that should be quickly dismissed. Legally, jurisdiction seems to be a good place to start. Culturally and economically, what motivates such negligent underwater attempts? Maybe it isn't the top problem in the world to solve, but I think too many tech people have a huge blind spots and pretend to know more than they actually do. This example is newsworthy, fun, tragic, and not particularly politically charged, best I can tell. So why not use some good reasoning here and discuss it?
We have laborious and very expensive approval processes for airplanes, ask the 737 MAX inspector from the FAA how well that guarded against bad engineering.
If even the bad engineering is at fault here (unknown as of writing this).
Those approval processes don't work when the government regulators allow the company being regulated to "self-regulate". There was no real FAA approval process for the 737MAX: FAA just let Boeing do it themselves. Of course that's going to lead to bad engineering when the sales team and executives make engineering decisions, and no one outside the company knows anything about it.
In the meantime such processes add much to the expense such that only larger well-funded and well-connected people can participate. The ones most likely to game it, btw.
It’s a reason planes basically look the same for many decades too; newer stuff is harder to get through. Also part of why Boeing thought it best to revise an existing design once more, besides designing a new one. The process led to bad design decisions quite directly, though of course everyone blames Boeing (rightly) but not the process the FAA imposed.
Not true. The reason planes look the same is because that's simply the optimal shape and layout, aerodynamically, for carrying passengers in the most fuel-efficient manner. Ask any aerospace engineer.
But there's been some big differences if you look more closely. Engine nacelles are a lot larger than they were 50 years ago, since bigger high-bypass turbofans are more efficient. And winglets are basically standard now. Under the skin there's huge differences: fly-by-wire, composite wings, etc.
>Also part of why Boeing thought it best to revise an existing design once more
Wrong. It's because some customers (cough Southwest cough) would only fly 737s, and because the FAA's broken rules allowed anything called a "737" with a 737 airframe to be flown by any pilot rated for that aircraft, even if they've only flown one from 1969, even though there's big differences between the generations, and because the FAA didn't mandate a more thorough process for this loophole. Boeing was afraid that these 737 users would buy the A320neo instead of a different Boeing plane, if forced into a choice of something new. In reality, the 737 airframe is old and obsolete, and should have been retired ages ago, but is only kept alive because of bad FAA regulations.
>The process led to bad design decisions quite directly, though of course everyone blames Boeing (rightly) but not the process the FAA imposed.
This is correct. The FAA is the root of the problem here. But the problem isn't that "processes can be gamed around", the problem is that this particular regulatory agency was corrupt and failed in its primary duty. Of course regulations can be gamed around; that's why the regulators are supposed to stay on top of that, and continually revise regulations to deal with this. It's a cat-and-mouse game, but here the cat just gave up and let the mouse tell it how to do its job as a cat. The answer to this problem isn't to get rid of cats; it's to euthanize this particular cat and get a better cat.
What regulatory agency isn't captured?
If you make a regulatory body, you want to staff it with those who 'know' about the subject. That's going to come from the most well-known groups at the time. These are people, and they had lives and friends before in the groups they came from. So, naturally, a lighter touch will be given to some from the same groups, but not to others who are unknown; and that's best case.
Also, I have seen no evidence that any regulatory body has done much to help safety, and they will definitely discourage risk-taking. Planes for instance, were getting better and safer before the FAA arrived. Concern for the environment grew before the EPA, workplace safety increased before OSHA, and so on. All these agencies (because they are staffed again by people, who want to keep their jobs - ask a doctor, he'll say you need a doctor, etc.) will point to the improvements after their inception, and say, "look at the good job we do!". It does not hold though, that these improvements would not have occurred without the agency, and it could very well be the case that improvements come sooner.
For instance, the current basic airframe might be best, but few try other designs, like a lift body, or a flying wing, which might be more efficient. I know the B-2 bomber was based on a flying wing design and does need sophisticated computer control of the control surfaces though, to work without a tail, and that's costly enough to get right. Add the FAA rules on top, and, as has happened, that idea dies early on the vine. You might say that's a good thing, and maybe in this case it was, but it also clearly wasn't tried for very long either, and the attempts would draw greater scrutiny from the FAA.
And that's a shame.
Stockton Rush, is that you? Aren't you dead? Or are you a big fan of his?
>Concern for the environment grew before the EPA
That sounds like "thoughts and prayers". "Concern" doesn't protect the environment; laws and enforcement does. The EPA was made for a good reason.
>workplace safety increased before OSHA
Some, but not in other places, just like the EPA. OSHA made rules and enforced them, so everyone got workplace safety, not just some places where management cared enough.
>ask a doctor, he'll say you need a doctor
Yes, because everyone eventually gets some illness that requires the services of a doctor. Many illnesses are only detectable with tests.
>For instance, the current basic airframe might be best, but few try other designs, like a lift body, or a flying wing, which might be more efficient.
You can read stuff all over the internet explaining why flying works don't work for passengers; it's not because of "regulation", it's because it's just a bad design for that. It's only used for bombers because it gives them stealth (combined with other design choices), and bombers don't need pressurization. Pressurizing a flying wing adds lots of weight, and to get equivalent internal volume, the design requires a huge wingspan that airports can't handle. It has nothing to do with FAA rules, and everything to do with physics.
I think the former is totally fine and there's no need for governments to get involved, while the latter is pretty bad and very possible to regulate.
A lot of ocean activity is thoroughly regulated. For example: https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International...
Moreover, It's not like they're getting paid in sand dollars or doubloons from the bottom of the sea. The passengers are signing contracts and paying large fees in landlubber currencies. There's a company involved here, a legal entity. The company is based in Washington State.
If this was really not covered by any law in any country with a plausible claim on it, you can bet that people will soon be clamoring for one. Remember that air travel was once entirely unregulated. Now it's one of the most highly controlled activities. A lot of regulation like that happens in response to notable disasters; the regulations are, as they say, "written in blood."
I also suspect that people with broad authority may investigate this and consider/recommend prosecutions if appropriate. E.g., the Washington State Attorney General, the US Coast Guard, and the Canadian Coast Guard.
It's not hard to certify vehicles before use. We do it with cars on a daily basis.
Measuring the necessity for regulation "in blood" is unbelievably cruel.
Good regulation balances the need for innovation vs the need for public health and safety. We can argue about the right balancing point all day, and people certainly will. But there's no simple solution on either side.
How is this a deniable point?
We are conscious enough as humans to not require death to change beliefs.
People who pay for that kind of trip know the dangers and have money enough to do their own due diligence.
Personally, I think it ought to be illegal to misrepresent your service’s safety. I seriously doubt the passengers onboard were aware of OceanGate’s whistleblower lawsuit or the claim that the viewport is not rated for the depth it is used at. When interviewed by the BBC, the company represented their submersible as very safe, certainly not as something likely to kill its passengers.
How is it a “nanny state” or “snooping” to require businesses to be honest about their service? This isn’t even necessarily an action a government would have to perform - it could be carried out by classification societies [0]. Do whatever you like with your own experimental sub, but don’t misrepresent it as a safe sightseeing trip for tourists.
> It's easy to imagine scenarios where this gets out of hand.
It’s even easier to imagine scenarios where a business is allowed to sell trips on a vessel with critical safety issues that the company knew of but did not disclose or address.
We have remedies for these real scenarios - they are called laws and regulations.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_classification_society
I believe that the GP’s point is that there’s no omniscient agency that can preemptively stop people from doing stupid things. There’s not enough resources to watch everything that everybody is doing all the time.
Have you ever heard of the name "Edward Snowden"?
What everybody is doing is already literally being watched all the time and it has been that way or at least decades and has gotten worse with technological evolution.
So, to evaluate action at t=0, we compare some metric at the real t=1 against the counterfactual at t=1.
It is logically invalid to evaluate the efficacy of an action by only comparing the metric at t=0 and t=1. That kind of reasoning error is incredibly common.
I didn’t suggest that this is necessary. It seems like there should be enough resources to look into the construction standards of a tourism company based in the U.S. that has received international press coverage for several years. It is possible to stop a tourism company from operating. This wasn’t a secret deep sea dive that no one could halt - it was the latest in a series of commercial voyages that were covered in the press (a BBC reporter went on one a few years ago, and there is a video tour of the vehicle). This dive was publicly announced.
No one needs to be surveilled 24/7 for regulations to work.
So everything already worked as intended. The tourists didn't bother to check the classification or if they did, were willing to dive anyways.
The 737 MAX shows that government involvement is not enough. Likewise doping shows that a legal framework is not enough to prevent advanced cheating.
>Personally, I think it ought to be illegal to misrepresent your service’s safety. I seriously doubt the passengers onboard were aware of OceanGate’s whistleblower lawsuit
Wouldn't it be better to establish a verification culture? There are always businesses that lie. The law only works retroactively while the tourists would be alive if they had checked.
My comment was suggesting that the U.S. government require that a business has a certification from an approved classification society in order to conduct a submersible tourism business. This does not seem to be the law currently since OceanGate is allowed to operate without any.
> The 737 MAX shows that government involvement is not enough.
No regulations will prevent all accidents, but I would say the rarity of fatal air accidents in the U.S. in recent decades is partly due to the high standards enforced by the FAA.
> Wouldn't it be better to establish a verification culture?
That sounds good too. That doesn’t contradict that regulations should also be in place so these conventions are required.
> The law only works retroactively while the tourists would be alive if they had checked.
Laws and regulations definitely do not only work retroactively. The FAA can ground unsafe planes, food inspectors can shutdown production before rotten food is shipped out, health inspectors can shutdown a restaurant.
Laws can’t protect these passengers, but they should be made to protect all future passengers.
Because the FAA has reporting requirements for any abnormal flight behavior which causes deviation. They literally prevent future accidents by analyzing past behavior.
Of course it is. But I think GP was just saying that there are no agencies to check rare venture like this. At least not before an incident happens.
> But I think GP was just saying that there are no agencies to check rare venture like this.
I think they were making a stronger claim: that there is not only no agency currently doing this, but that it is pointless and impossible to try and regulate this area, which I don’t agree with.
But I agree with GP: there is something off about the calls for regulation here. Fundamentally, people should have the right to risk their lives in crazy expeditions to the bottom of the sea or the top of a mountain, and charging someone else money to be taken along does not change that.
No. That poster was not just making positive claims. They also made normative and prescriptive claims, which I am pushing back on.
IANAL. This isn't just your personal opinion. In Common Law jurisdictions, see also: negligence, false advertising, deception, fraud, and misrepresentation. Civil Law jurisdictions have concepts that are comparable.
This is exactly why we need less government and be slower to call for laws. Human nature cannot be changed despite our belief that it can be.
The same lazy decisions that led to this potential event can also be used to destroy lives.
At the end of the day we are all accountable for our selves.
A nanny state is telling you how to live your life. An example is when NYC banned large soft drinks or when we listed marijuana as a schedule 1 drug. Registration of a mode of transportation is hardly a nanny state activity because vehicles inherently pose a risk to others whether as a passenger or someone sharing proximity with you.
You can certainly build your own car and register it. They're often called salvage titles; this is true for airplane kits too, but you also have to be able to prove the worthiness of the machine. We have lots of process and administration to take care of this, but for whatever reason it didn't work here.
- they didn't do a test dive first with no humans on board
- they didn't do a test dive with just staff, no paying customers
- the first "test" was to the full depth where the craft would be basically unrecoverable
- they didn't seem to even test these things ashore... Because you'd find out if the damn motor was on backwards!
If true, this strikes me as beyond amateurish and outright insane.
Except there's not whole teams of engineers and checklists to prevent that sort of thing. Nor humans aboard.
Shades of the Thresher disaster. No doubt we'll hear a few months down the track that the Navy's sound receivers did actually pick up the implosion noise.
4,000 meters should mean 400 bars of pressure from the water, would the thing need to be inflated at more than 400 bar?
The pressure vessel was a titanium hemisphere bonded to a carbon fiber cylinder. It was destined to fail with such a fundamentally compromised design like that.
I imagine maybe carbon fiber would be better in tension (e.g. airframes) than in compression (this), perhaps. Or do carbon fiber and titanium not get along somehow?
(EDIT: Had tension and compression backwards.)
<in an Obi-Wan Kenobi voice> Now that is a word I have not heard in a long, long time.
Whut
There needs to be a system by which any company can ALWAYS be guaranteed some $X for 0% equity if it is going to be used and documented for life safety improvements and tests. That $X can even come from taxes, I'm okay with that.
Also there seem to be quite a few train derailments as of late.
Oh and what about that apartment building that just...collapsed in Ohio?
Seems like there have been quite a few cases of safety regulatory failure in recent memory.
Edit, oh, it's a pay walled story.
There you go :-)
When things work you can do great things in record time.
When things don't work, people die.
Tesla likes to boast about the safety of their cars, and while I don't deny this, I believe that the safety is an accidental side-effect of the inherent properties of building a car with no explosive fuel and a heavy battery pack at the very bottom of the car.
Many other EVs have equivalent safety ratings.
https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/electric-vehicle...
https://www.shift2electric.com/_files/ugd/49f443_f12301e882e...
Using the euroncap ratings you used as an example, the model Y received the highest rating ever tested
The failure modes for a vehicle are also a lot simpler than a sub. If the interior starts to fill with smoke you can stop and get out. A submarine doesn't have that option.
Haven't they? They've removed radar from their cars and now the AEB system uses image recognition. Does any other manufacturer do that?
"General Motors said Wednesday that automatic emergency braking will be standard on 98% of its new vehicles by Aug. 31, the end of this model year. The four remaining automakers were close to hitting 95% in December."
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-05-31/us-safety-...
https://www.carscoops.com/2022/09/2022-tesla-model-y-perform...
If Tesla decided to make their suspension entirely out of carbon fiber despite knowing carbon fiber handles stress cycles differently and tends to fail catastrophically at the limit then you'd have an apt comparison.
Or you can look at the Boeing 787's carbon fiber body design as an example of how to do something completely differently. They deviated from the norm but that involved years of engineering and testing to identify potential failure points, how operating conditions impact the service life, etc. They designed inspection schedules and procedures for out of spec events like excessive G-forces, hard landings, explosive decompression, over-pressurization due to pack failure, and so on. All of these things are well known with aluminum airplane bodies but not for carbon fiber.
So a 787 operator knows if they have an explosive decompression event exactly what needs to be checked and how many flights to shave off the expected service life.
From what we know right now Titan had a unique hull design yet did absolutely none of the engineering or testing legwork before putting paying passengers inside. That is what makes them reckless and Boeing or Tesla not so much.
No offense, but to put it bluntly, this just means you have no experience with the hardware world, pre Musk, and don't understand the line between "user feature" and "safety critical".
It's only when it blows up that it turns from "ingenuity" into "amateur hour".
People who participated in this knew the risks. They fucked up. None of us would have designed a better submarine, and I'd wager we're not all that qualified to tell a crappy design from a good one, except - once again - after the fact.
Once you realize that ingenuity is not going to be enough to survive: Seal everyone in, then fake the whole experience with a screen built in to the porthole.
I dunno. I would never go with wireless over cabled, certainly not as my primary steering method, and it sure as hell wouldn’t be the only method onboard to control the thing.
Maybe it’s better if these things are build by paranoid instead of adventurous people?
Your car is filled with cheap off-the-shelf *car* components. There's far more scrutiny given to car parts, even though they're cheap stuff.
But to get back to the controller, while it's not necessarily the worst problem, it is emblematic. That's why people reduce it to that. It signifies immediately what kind of company they were. Emphasis on were.
Much more concerning are the potential flaws in the carbon fiber hull, as disclosed during the David Lochridge lawsuit (mentioned in another thread), the rumoured lack of surface radios, the limited communication with the surface, the lack of any exits, and even the use of carbon fiber (which is strong in tension, good for high pressure tanks, but weak in compression -- not what I'd want for a submarine under massive compression)
The problems here are just several fold: maybe the door won't help you at depth, but there's a pretty wide envelope of conditions in which a fast escape hatch is the difference between surviving a fire and burning alive.
The CEO of OceanGate said he "learned the lessons of aviation", but this is obviously BS if he's locking himself in a capsule with flammable equipment, piping oxygen in, and just hoping it doesn't burn. That's a recipe for disaster we know how to avoid.
If we’re talking worst mistake I think the lack of any form of communications equipment is it.
Hell, have a 4km long cable. Even if you can’t communicate because the sub is on fire or imploded you can drag them back up.
Of course it’s not nice if your sub implodes, but that’s kind of a requirement for using it in the first place.
So many problems with this scheme, though. No rigorous test (depth, survival, atmosphere), lack of SMEs, carbon fiber hull, failed to learn lessons from aviation (don't lock people in a room that can burn), lack of ventilation, failure to provide emergency breathing, no voice comms, and finally the comms loss during testing that was normalized as operating procedure.
All you'd have to do is not make one of those mistakes, and you'd be doing a better job. These are all issues that are solved on US Navy subs, where we train hundreds of people every year to work on and retire just as many. You don't need to know all these systems, though, just find a retired sub chief and have them walk you through the safety systems.
One thing I've picked up working in software, is that you can enter new domains with relative ease if you just align yourself with experts, and at least listen to their advice. This isn't something that happened on the sub, and I'd be surprised if it ultimately didn't contribute to the total vehicle loss.
All credit to SV Seeker, it is a wildly impressive project, but I don't think they would be mad if I suggest they had the resolver spirit while putting that vessel together.
Consumers (who don't really understand the dangers of the environment they're about to enter) just blindly trust that they're in good hands, and in this case it seems like they were deceived about the trustworthiness of this vessel.
But this trip to see the Titanic is completely different. This was an experimental trip on an experimental vessel (they signed specifically to that affect). Anyone who thinks that journeying down to 13,000 feet to see the titanic was going to be as risk free as crossing the Puget sound or going to disney world is crazy. The sheer reason they are paying for this trip is because it has been relatively impossible up to this point. They are breaking new frontiers by doing so which is by its nature inherently risky. There has to be known risk involved here. It isn't a ride at disneyland. This was serious. I am sure they didn't actually expect to die, but they had to know that there was a realistic possibility of that outcome.
Consumers/the general public are less aware of the risk, and as another reply said more likely to trust a company on it's safety. They aren't marine engineers so they have to. That's why it's a regulated industry.
Researches are making an entirely different risk/benefit calculation and it's useful to society that they can make different risk tradeoffs. Key example, astronauts.
In that is an implication that research is more important to society than a holiday activity.
Did they? Knowing the risks, imo, requires more than just being aware of the failure scenarios - it also means having an understanding of the probabilities involved. Playing Russian roulette with 1 vs 5 rounds have the same worse case outcomes, but the odds are very different.
Not doing destructive testing, hiding info from the guy who was supposed to look at the ship, etc. that's avoiding getting a handle on risk.
> None of us would have designed a better submarine
Probably not, but otoh, it sounds like they probably could have done so and failed to take the necessary steps to make it happen.
https://www.chronline.com/stories/woman-paralyzed-in-toledo-...
This would have been a scrappy solution for a sub in a pool where there was a chance for help. You don't take paying customers on a scrappy sub to the bottom of the ocean.
Peers in the industry though have expressed concerns, such as in this 2018 letter:
> This letter is sent on behalf of our industry members who have collectively expressed unanimous concern regarding the development of TITAN and the planned Titanic Expedition. Our apprehension is that the current experimental approach adopted by Oceangate could result in negative outcomes (from minor to catastrophic) that would have serious consequences for everyone in the industry.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/marine-technology-soc...
Or when they fired and sued their director of marine operations who raised safety concerns:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23854184-oceangate-v...
I really hope that the foresight of the MTS is recognized amongst the general public, and the DSV space doesn’t suffer a setback in perception and/or funding. At present, it does seem like the general sentiment is that this specific submersible was built to an incredibly poor standard when compared to, say, the famed Alvin or Deepsea Challenger. I hope that sentiment holds.
I just mean, if the lights are so unreliable, imagine if they all failed, they moving in the dark next to the Titanic. (looks like they also have radar, but that could fail too) And the Pilot in that ep seemed to partly depend on the viewer at the front to say if they got close to something. Looks pretty hard to navigate the sub. I know they trying to give a tour to consumers, but I would want the pilot at the front by the window with the best view and time to react. "Driving" kinda blind with just radar and high ISO camera's is a bit sketch.
Sounds like everything I’ve built in Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom so far.
What bothers me more and is clear as day in those pictures are things like the screws into the carbon fiber pressure hull holding the screens up. There was someone (ex test engineer?) on reddit yesterday talking about a few things, but what really stuck out was how he mentioned there were a lot of questionable decisions being made that made him nop out of the project. And others mentioning simple things like painting it orange so it can be found on the surface easier were simply not being done.
So, while its possible the surface ship didn't have a sensitive hydrophone recording the dive, which seems almost impossible so i'm going to assume it does, everyone seems focused on how they should be able to hear it implode. Meaning it is drifting about somewhere...
But, I wonder, it seems quite possible to me that the thing simply sprung a leak, and flooded out in a matter of seconds rather than imploding. Once that happened none of the fail safes to surface would work because its likely not buoyant enough once full of water. A microscopic pinhole would probably ablate really fast, but would be completely unstoppable.
Given the hull is only 5" thick, even a 1/2" screw on the inside would be a significant percentage of the way through already.
Although I would be surprised if they drilled into the hull, I wouldn’t be THAT surprised.
So, yes it seems insane, and having seen pictures which look both like that is a liner and ones where it looks like its not, I don't know. There is very clearly an outer shell offset from the pressure hull. Whats on the inside isn't as clear, but I'm not sure why they would be running cables out of the floor when they could just be running them out closer to the arm/etc if there is space behind.
Although from a human comfort perspective, I'm not sure why there isn't a little foot well/bench either. There is obviously stuff under the floor, but it also looks fairly hollow too.
The controller is sending control signals to the computer which controls the motors. The controller itself is basically irrelevant. It’s not actually doing the control, the motor controllers are.
Using off the shelf stuff like this is also common since it’s extremely well tested and usually very physically robust.
People think they’re technical enough to understand everything and want their hot takes heard.
It's irrelevant until it fails with no backup mechanism when maneuvers are needed.
My only gripe with this is that the controller has a battery in it, which may cause a fire and smoke but those are well commercialized items made to be used by kids, so I find it unlikely to have design flaws to cause that and would expect to be quite a robust piece of equipment.
I would be very surprised if the incident has anything to do with the controller.
This is a "this submersible seems like it was cobbled together out of whatever was lying around" story, a "hmm, that's funny/interesting/worrying" story from a source that has a big video-gamer audience, and a little bit a "this thing could have run out of batteries when they needed to turn" story. It's almost certainly not the cause of their issues but it does give people pause.
I wouldn't be worried about using a COTS part that people are familiar with, and I agree that's the "juicy" part of this story that gets reactions unfairly, but is it really unreasonable for people to look askance at the apparently sole method of controlling the vehicle relying on Bluetooth and AAs?
Logitech tests products under these conditions? Sea water?
I've had considerable experience with Logitech products and I can't imagine employing a consumer grade Logitech controller for any life-critical purpose. It's built-to-a-price e-waste from which you hope to get a couple years of service under near ideal indoor residential conditions.
While this probably wasn't the part that failed, it shows an incredible lack of judgment.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drive_by_wire
I do get what you are saying, and there is a "feel" difference when driving a car with a mechanical linkage. But I wouldn't go as far to say that makes the DBW input irrelevant. Ergonomics, materials and tactility could even be seen as more significant in these cases
So the conclusion could be that if the controller is a bad / cheap, everything else is also similar, hence the reason for this situation.
But from what I can tell, the pressure vessel + multiple levels of redundant safeties for surfacing all seem pretty well-done. The fact that the CEO and sub designer is down there tells me this wasn't some entirely sloppy cost-cutting solution they hobbled together.
Also, one of the "passengers" they call "Mr Titanic" is also down there - so not a clueless person looking for an adrenaline rush as some other comment mentioned.
These people understand the risks first-hand and have deemed it acceptable to go on it - game controller or not.
I work in a robotics field and have an academic background in it as well. The controller and the other related information we know (that its input is mapped to keypresses, that in a previous test a controller failed and the only solution was troubleshooting of the controller, that a thruster was installed backwards in a previous test) is absolutely relevant. I will add that you can also see what are basic office monitors and the windows taskbar in the images. Yes, motor controllers are involved somewhere, and I don't know all of the details, but all of this strongly implies to me that a commercial PC is the core system, with this controller connected via some keymapping software, and motor controllers probably connected by usb-serial converters or something similar.
All of that looks like an undergrad project. It's common and acceptable for a student project's first test in a swimming pool. By the time humans are inside and depth is concerned, formal design and validation of something more robust should be seen. You'd want to see something much more robust with redundancies. At a very bare minimum I would expect something like an industrial or marine joystick and industrial or marine display connected to PLC. That's like a few thousand dollars and still really falls short of what I would be comfortable with. But at least it could be rigorously tested and doesn't depend on windows, drivers, keymapping software and who-knows-what in terms of development environment, libraries, compilers etc.
Well, that about it settles what happened.
From the pre-accident reports about the sub it seems like hull integrity was the thing they actually cared about the most, with everything else being in an even worse state. My money would be on the sub drifting somewhere with no power or no control or whatever.
https://simpleflying.com/pressurization-cycles-aircraft-life...
The goal is to have extremely high reliability at the given rating. Not failing for a half dozen trips is nearly meaningless. Safety critical equipment is expected to meet the rated load thousands of times without issue. Using equipment well outside its rated working load, in situation where failures kill people, is highly irresponsible.
I wonder how many layer of safety there is, there should probably be at least 3 independent ways that ballast can come off when your life depends on it..
-Somebody at Boeing about MCAS at some point, probably.
Besides which, shedding ballast is part of it's normal operational cycle. One would hope that would be bulletproof.
Of note, I recall even though the sub in question had a working acoustic phone and beacon, the rescue vessels really struggled to pinpoint its precise location and maintain communications. The ocean is a big place!
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34360329 [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rescue_of_Roger_Mallinson_an...
Until one time they caught few enough (none? I remember "none," but that seems absurd) that the whole thing failed, and the jumper fell straight to their death.
Going down in the ocean to a depth far deeper than any military submarine goes -- I don't see any info online, but I wonder if fewer people have been as deep as the Titanic than have reached Earth orbit -- in something that apparently was put together and vetted by effectively hobbyists seems the pinnacle of lunacy. Apologies to the missing for saying it.
If they used $30 logitech keyboard as well, would anyone question that?
Cons: desynchronization issues, transmitter goes bad, receiver goes bad, interference, batteries run up, someone forgets to pack batteries, someone forgets to check if the backup batteries are still good.
WHAT were they thinking??
It’s stupid because it adds needless risk and another failure point for no benefit.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/20/us/titanic-missing-s...
It's complicated somewhat if the submarine is launched and operated in international waters, however.
1) Many more people fly or bike than ride in submarines.
2) Regulations are written in blood. Too many of these types of accidents and then safety rules will be established and enforced (hopefully).
https://www.cpsc.gov/content/bicycle-requirements-business-g...
If you’re an engineer, finding a reliable part from a supplier that meets your spec is an amazing thing.
Intel processors are off the shelf, as are 555 timers, screws, literally everything.
Not every field is like computer science where “isEven” has a library that makes sense to avoid
The cheap controller angle is noise in my opinion.
It costs what it costs because that’s how much it costs to make it and have a mark up on it. These factors are not a commentary on its durability, robustness or quality. Try as you might to find a correlation.
Strain monitoring built into the hull only helps you if you can surface in time once you notice a problem, and not at all if it is a catastrophic failure.
Might have been from the Byford Dolphin accident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byford_Dolphin
"Hellevik, being exposed to the highest pressure gradient and in the process of moving to secure the inner door, was forced through the crescent-shaped opening measuring 60 centimetres (24 in) long created by the jammed interior trunk door. With the escaping air and pressure, it included bisection of his thoracoabdominal cavity, which resulted in fragmentation of his body, followed by expulsion of all of the internal organs of his chest and abdomen, except the trachea and a section of small intestine, and of the thoracic spine. These were projected some distance, one section being found 10 metres (30 ft) vertically above the exterior pressure door."
I wonder if anyone knows if this universally true? Would the inhabitants of this submarine have experienced a similar fate if one of those bolts failed or a hole in the hull developed?
In the event you could contain it to a simple pinhole and not have it instantly crush, the stream of water would cut anything placed in its path. It would work similar to a lightsaber.
Though as you said, the far more likely outcome is that the vessel would crush almost instantly.
A pressure washer maxes out around 4000 PSI for a powerful one, and that can easily cut through flesh.
> This submersible does not have any kind of beacon like that. On my expedition last summer, they did indeed get lost for about 5 hours, and adding such a beacon was discussed…
> To be clear, I was not on the sub that day—I was on the ship at the surface, in the control room. They could still send short texts to the sub, but did not know where it was. It was quiet and very tense, and they shut off the ship’s internet to prevent us from tweeting.
Why is the submarine bolted shut from the outside?
I don't remember which company it was, but there was an aircraft company that made the mistake of relying on screws instead of pressure to keep the cockpit windows in place.
The windows were installed from the outside with outside screws to hold them in place. During maintenance one of the windows got replaced and the worker accidentally used the wrong screws which were much weaker than the correct screws.
Next flight when the plane got high enough the difference between outside pressure and the higher pressure in the pressurize cabin blew the window out and one of the pilots got sucked out. Someone else in the cockpit was able to grab his legs on the way out and hold on keeping him from falling, although he spent the rest of the flight dangling out the window getting buffeted around pretty severely. The people left in the cockpit were sure the guy dangling out the window was dead, and they were having a hard time holding on, but they didn't want to lose his body and managed to keep him.
They also were having a hard time communicating with each other or with air traffic control because of the noise from the missing window.
They did get down safely, and the everyone's surprise found that the guy dangling in the window was alive, quite bruised, and had frostbite all over his face, but nothing permanent. He made a full recovery.
They redesigned the windows so on newer planes they installed from the inside with inside screws, whose job was now to keep the window from falling into the plane instead of keep it from falling out.
A "wrong screw" accident then might mean losing a window when taxiing or during takeoff or landing or at low altitude, before there is much pressure different between inside and outside. No one would be sucked out then and the noise would be a lot lower. At higher altitudes the pressure difference would be keeping the windows in place.
As I said I don't remember what company's plane had this accident. It was on one of those "air disaster" documentary shows.
... which would be a risk that I might recommend for another application and manufacturer, but not for this firm, apparently. For this firm, I think I'd recommend "Don't do what you're doing, but if you must, keep it as simple as possible."
The bigger problem seems like underinvestment in "getting found" technology.
On the other, 'wait, what?'.
The entire operation manages to somehow feel both incredibly sophisticated (it's not easy to get a sub to that depth) and simultaneously incredibly stupid.
Funny enough, I've also seen "it doesn't even have a toilet" repeated around HN in the last couple days.
IIRC an earlier design or planned design used cameras only.
Edit: Wow, they were actually sued by a whistleblower over the pressure rating for the window on an earlier design! https://newrepublic.com/post/173802/missing-titanic-sub-face...
I am smart enough to know that I'm too dumb and ill-equipped to make a safe tourism business out of a homebrewed submarine.
These people are smarter than me, but too stupid to know that they aren't smart enough to make a safe tourism business out of a homebrewed submarine.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/how-do-you-know/2020...
What could possibly lead you to presume that? Do you feel in a better position to make that call than all the engineers who actually work on that task at a professional level?
Looks like at most, about half a mile: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_king_crab_fishing#Equi...
Then take a look at how much weight a string can hold up.
Then you're ready to be taking on space elevators
There are materials that are a bit more dense and others a bit less dense than water. It should be possible to craft a string with a "weight" of zero, when submerged.
A spool 20 feet wide has a circumference of ~60 feet, and 3 miles of cable is ~15,000 feet, so 250 loops around the spool. Seems doable.
For volume: Volume of 4km of rope is 0.009^23.144000 = 1.02m^2 which seems like an amount that would fit on a large spool on a ship.
For weight: rope itself weighs about 60g per meter so 0.06*4000=230kg of rope. It has a breaking strength of 22kN, which is roughly 2000kg static load. Given everything is probably roughly neutrally buoyant seems like enough.
Not saying its practical but it seems like the actual volume/weight of rope would not be a problem.
But then surely you could just cut the rope and free the vessel.
I think your son is onto something!
I know nothing about it and I was surprised to read about this situation because I would have assumed a submersible would be in fairly constant sonar contact with its surface vessel. I would've thought it would be followed a rigidly planned route and its location relative to the surface ship would be well understood at all times, i.e. "you are 3508.3m below us, 340m east, 233.1m south."
How does a submersible "get lost"?
I'm not an expert, but I think this is an incorrect assumption. We can navigate it decently on the surface (even then, plenty of ships sink/go missing each year [1]) but underwater is a whole different story.
> Why is this vessel unable to stay in contact with its parent
That is kind of the big question here.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_shipwrecks_in_2022
The support vessel relies on acoustic pings to track the submersible. If the submersible stops responding, or is out of detection range, you'd have no idea where it is.
"Rigidly planned route" is not really the case either. You're not going to drop in at the exact same GPS coordinate, and there might be currents that push you.
Sure, but you'd know the last location, wouldn't you? Especially if it's pinging at least once a minute? And if the craft failed, surely they would just set down on the floor nearby, not travel miles in a random direction sideway.
At one point they were at the bottom of the sea and the gamepad just stops working, as in the mapping of the gamepad keys to the controls of the sub weren't working correctly. They were stuck spinning around in circles on the sea floor.
The owner, on a boat in the middle of the ocean, had to call whoever it was that set up the gamepad for him on a cell phone, while his team and customers were at the bottom of the ocean, to figure out how the gamepad worked. That person never answered. They eventually troubleshoot it and find out that 'left' on the gamepad was actually forward in real life and all of the keys were mapped incorrectly.
The software that they depended on was just as buggy as you'd expect, and having watched the BBC special, I would never get in any submersible that this team designed or touched.
BBC Special Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLI9SpUDdwo
BBC Special Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLOhOAJV5II
edit: apparently they were made private. You can find the show here on BBC Travel's website, they're the "Take Me to Titanic" episodes:
Part 1: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001d2ml
Part 2: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001d7b6
Some other horrors from the episodes if you can't access them:
- They didn't have navigation systems on the sub, so they were basically dead reckoning and trying to confirm their location with their team at the ocean's surface.
- They lost control multiple times.
- There were multiple incidents where they almost aborted the trip 16+ hours into it.
- It looked like they didn't even have voice or video communication with their team at the surface, they were communicating using text on what looked like an 1990's AIM client.
- It looked like everything was rigged together with consumer hardware, using older versions of Windows and custom software.
True enough on the surface. Not in a mini sub. They couldn't carry spares of everything.
5 Billionaires go missing on a rickety sub and multiple nations respond with everything they have.
Double standards much?
Ask people how long search crews should look for migrant boats, citing the cost, youll get some very mixed responses
Ask people how long search crews should look for a submersible containing a billionaire, his son and whoever else and it will be longer on average
- Some kid lost in my country? Resources deployed for search, community helps, hundreds if not thousands do the land sweeping.
- Remember boys stuck in thailand cave? Whole world was trying to help.
- Just a moment ago plane crashed in amazon, killing adults, leaving 4 kids. Massive search effort they say was underway - 150 soldiers, dogs not knowing if they are alive - until found after 40 days. Not everyone can help there, you have to know the jungle and the dangers.
- Apollo 13 - I read that the whole world was holding the breath.
Looks like the more complex the rescue, the more popular it is in the news, the more everyone tries to do something about it.
And by the way, the vacation company will likely get a fat bill from the Coast Guards.
https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/sound01/backgrou...
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2005/02/secrets-whales-long...
The sub should have had an acoustic transponder that broadcast telemetry which could also be used to locate it.
So perhaps the best you could do here are something like emergency buoys that either one can record data on or perhaps automated recording some stats/location/whatever that can be released in an emergency and send a broadcast once topside?
According to my back-of-the-envelope math, using the density and tensile strength of typical glass, it would have a breaking load capacity of around 10 newtons (roughly 2 pounds of force). Even a steel cable with the same weight would only be about 20 times stronger.
I would expect to see some sort of emergency button (internally) that you could press, that would release some sort of buoy, that would float to the surface and start transmitting with gps etc. I think that would help narrow down the search.
The buoy would be in an external container (to prevent pressure problems), with explosive bolts or something to release.
I don't think the former system would have worked here anyway, since the sub is supposed to get very close to the bottom.
Naval subs in trouble?
They go "forever on patrol." A naval sub is an espionage watercraft; signaling an emergency isn't exactly in the playbook for most of their mission cycle. ;)
I would expect some e2e encryption satellite communication, however that might be still traceable to the enemy listening posts.
Man, I now need to watch "Hunt for Red October" again [0]. lol
There's so many, it's hard to pick!
I'm quite fond of the Bond film where he was disguised as a Japanese man, and all the actors pretended to be fooled. 6'2", with chest hair poking out of his kimono, an obvious wig, and speaking broken Japanese with his typical Scottish brogue. "Arigatoo gozzzimash"
Is your phone waterproof? Stick it a sink full of water. Watch it lose all network connectivity.
That should work if it's floating I would think?
They already know about where the sub should be, somewhere around the Titanic wreck. If an untethered buoy pops up a few miles away, does it really do much to help clue you into where they are? And if its not much to put a tether on the buoy, why not just have the craft be tethered from the start?
A buoy ascends at 2.8 m/s. 3000m would yield, meaning about 18 minutes of rise time.
If we assume that water is at max speed the whole way through, we'd be talking about 1-2 miles.
Realistically, because most of its rise is in deep sea conditions, I imagine it'd be less than 1 mile.
But, if it made contact as soon as it reached surface with a GPS location, I'm sure some scientist could calculate about how far it drifted from the water conditions. I'd imagine they could get it down to a few hundred foot radius?
”The submarine's emergency rescue buoy had been intentionally disabled during an earlier mission and it took more than 16 hours to locate the sunken boat, which rested on the ocean floor at a depth of 108 m (354 ft).”
They obviously didn't do this. They previously lost the sub for five hours. Why this doesn't have an emergency buoy, or an locator beacon that works when the ship surfaces, I don't know.
But anyway, this controller debate is probably irrelevant anyway. I think it's unlikely to have been the cause of the problem here. Hope the sub is found soon so we can know what happened exactly.
True, but doesn’t that apply to most if not all parts in the submarine? In fact, you can easily pack like 10 of these joysticks in the submarine inventory.
But yeah I agree, I don’t think it’s been a controller issue.
Edit: Unless it was “lost” on purpose, it’s probably the crew doesn’t want to be found in the mean time, and having a billionaire on board also make things more interesting, maybe they are after some treasure hunting stuff.
>This is not the first time the Titan has gotten lost. On Monday, Pogue tweeted that during his report last summer about the Titan, the submersible got lost for a few hours as well (while Pogue was on the surface),
Some devs are so cheap it's grotesque bordering on delusional. Just splurge on the controller that's 100$ dollar more or maybe buy the lamp that's not from alibabas camping section, i promise you that's not what is going to tilt the budgets.
The xbox controller is already used by the military and other industrial environments exactly because of reliability - if you can't research your way to that info from just googling and instead want to "stock up on probably good-enough controllers, or have an extra one lying around (because there's lots of space in a sub??)" or "just be economical" or "i used the controller and it was good" - i'm happy you are not working with any software i would ever use, and for gods sake never anything mission critical.
Imagine being able to 100x the reliability of large parts of the one and only prototype you have, but instead you save 300 dollars of your 50 million dollar budget.
I was under the impression that the exceptional strength carbon fibre is only in tension, and that it isn't particularly good in compression.
Why would OceanGate use carbon fibre? Other similar deep-diving submersibles used either steel or titanium, which are isotropic and have high compressive strengths.
6” of steel is impenetrable..
Also relevant (and discussed in the piece) there are multiple independent systems to increase buoyancy and bring it back up to the surface, including some that should trigger automatically even if everyone aboard is unconscious.
Not discussed was whether any of them would operate if it lost pressure containment.
Obviously, it is easier to get a replacement Xbox controller to a US base than a lost submarine—so the circumstances are different. But sometimes off the shelf parts are the best option.
"All of these submersibles have been kind of janky," Pogue said.
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/19/1183057832/a-search-is-underw...
Once you start doing the opposite: special-puprose building a fixed controller, you have to deal with all the issues that arise. It needs to handle corrosion, you need redundancy etc. It's going to cost thousands. The question asked should be "why should we not use the cheap off the shelf solution" and only choose something else when there is a good reason.
Using off-the-shelf parts is par for the course even on military boats and submarines. They are far cheaper than custom made parts with fault rates which are acceptable. With proper maintenance and redudancy, this is not at all an issue.
The issue here is the carelessness of the team, the lack of proper safety engineering and an utter disregard for industry best practices. The equipment is not the issue. These specific practices would have led to an unsafe submarine even with custom made parts.
> This letter is sent on behalf of our industry members who have collectively expressed unanimous concern regarding the development of 'TITAN' and the planned Titanic Expedition. Our apprehension is that the current 'experimental approach adopted by Oceangate could result in negative outcomes (from minor to catastrophic) that would have serious consequences for everyone in the industry.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/marine-technology-soc...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/us/oceangate-titanic-miss...
https://www.itpro.com/hardware/368293/why-cutting-edge-space...
The commercial controller has statutory requirements to provide warranty and would financially damage the company if it had a high failure/return rate.
I thought the idea of using it in Bluetooth mode was sketchy, but the selection of a commercial controller didn’t bother me.
Why on earth do they have any controller, aside from some sort of emergency up button.
Furthermore, what the hell is the emergency plan??? This is going to cost taxpayers millions of dollars. The CEO who should be held criminally liable is inside the sub. I really, really hope they're found alive so that he can be held to account for this.
With regard to the people talking about COTS reliability of Microsoft, Logitech or whichever non mil spec components etc.
* Nobody tested that device when they had been working on an ocean going vestle.
* Nobody checked what happens if you have saltwater on your hands when you pick it up.
* Nobody checked what happens if it is exposed to salt fog for periods of time.
This is a potentially tragic event that I hope has a happy ending.
The ultimate indemnity.
I imagine you’d need some kind of sea floor SLAM which sounds… really hard?
If you use inertial sensors, you're in a moving fluid which really messes up your ability to dead set navigate.
That said, it seems like it would be much easier for a computer to handle this than a person, especially if it had already mapped the area.
No, it’s quite an engineering challenge to develop any robust self driving code, especially in safety critical applications.
Having human controls would still be necessary as a backup even if they did have autopilot.
Some of these armchair engineering comments about this project are incredibly optimistic or pessimistic.
Surely its been sent down to dwell at these depths autonomously dozens if not hundreds of times, right?
it would still be as good if you were sitting on the deck of a ship in front of a screen or a VR headset watching a live feed. it would be much better than being picked into a tube with 5 people and only 2 people being able to see anything at one time
Surprise: mass production makes a $30 gamepad from a $30k prototype.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65960217
> Unusually though, it includes a private toilet for customers at the front of the sub. A small curtain is pulled across when it is in use and the pilot turns up some onboard music.
> However, the company's website does recommend "you restrict your diet before and during the dive to reduce the likelihood that you will need to use the facilities".
I wonder if they forgot spare batteries.
Well, they did deliver on their promises I guess...