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tablespoon

11,990 karma · joined February 23, 2021

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tablespoon··on Not by AI
> Unlike in the 80s - most programmers no longer need to know assembler/machine code to do their jobs. The skill floor has been lowered - so that programmers like me can get a job.

Assembly isn't that hard. You'd have still gotten a job, but your employer just wouldn't have gotten as much productivity out of you (so they'd either have had to hire more programmers or write less software).

tablespoon··on Xiaomi has been in violation of GPL for years
> What they are doing is morally repugnant regardless of legality.

Not honoring the GPL very, very far down the list of moral wrongs, and certainly isn't in the "morally repugnant" category.

tablespoon··on Not by AI
> Labor will shift.

Until it doesn't. I mean until very recently the narrative justification for extreme automation was it would free up our time to create art and stuff. Now that's in question.

It's all excuses to avoid thinking about the problems the automation technology will cause. Avoidance worked OK in the past, but as these technologies get more and more extreme, the problems will get more and more pressing, and the old lazy excuses won't cut it anymore.

> ...but we should do so in the context of celebrating greater individual leverage to create and produce.

And the end point of that is a small cadre of elites who control the machines, and hordes of people left with no economic value (except, perhaps as slaves for elite amusement, like gladiators and prostitutes).

tablespoon··on Xiaomi has been in violation of GPL for years
> The GPL has strict "give back" requirements, which they are not honoring.

What's the status of the GPL under Chinese law? Because maybe they're not required to honor it. IIRC, the GPL was written in the context of certain Western legal systems and depends on certain characteristics of those systems.

Even in a Western country, there's probably situations "give back" requirements become unenforceable (e.g. the copyright on the code runs out).

tablespoon··on Not by AI
>> No true original ideas and there was just remixing natural phenomena? Really? So writing was just remixing all the writing that people saw volcanoes and rainstorms do?

> Writing was a remix of pictorial representation, which was a remix of the way things like ox heads, flowing water, and birds look.

That's the kind of absurd reasoning when you take some proposition and try to defend it to the death even though its wrong.

tablespoon··on Farmers' protest party win shock Dutch vote victory
>> Most environmental action being taken out seems to be exclusively acts of religious-like penance.

> There's a much simpler explanation: people are worried about the environment and global warming, so they are willing to try out a lot of different things that they think might help, but lo and behold, it turns out that some of those things actually help and others turn out not to...

It's not one or the other, it's both.

There's also the factor that people are more comfortable with changes that inconvenience others, but don't inconvenience them much; so there's often a major lack of consideration and empathy with the proposals. Couple that with religion-like moral urgency, and you get a lot of unnecessary conflict.

tablespoon··on Farmers' protest party win shock Dutch vote victory
> Keep in mind that in this case the threat comes from within the groups that agree with her ideology, but believe she is controlled opposition.

Really? It's not very believable that someone on the right would phrase a threat like that (i.e. "go away or you'll end up dead, like the last right-wing leader killed by an left-wing environmental activist").

I did some digging and all I could find (in English) was some comments attributing the threats to the "the anti-farmer or anti-BBB lobby" (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/07/pro-farming-mp-cancels...).

tablespoon··on Studies Link Marijuana Legalization to Positive Public Health Outcomes
> ...in people who are already disposed to these disorders.

So? If the disorder would have otherwise remained latent in an individual, and marijuana was the environmental factor that caused it to manifest itself, then that's definitely a negative health outcome of marijuana.

tablespoon··on Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities
> After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not really be able to convince businesses to take the hit and pay high capital cost to produce a worse version just as a stepping stone. The investment capital is likely to be wasteful, or misspent - since the "fallback" of western products are available (until they go to war like russia, and the cut off is abrupt and sudden).

What do you mean? This is China we're talking about. Every major company has a cell of Communist party members. If the government makes a decision, you follow and don't complain too loudly or risk political consequences. And, IIRC, the Chinese government already made the decision to build up their chip industry years ago (Made in China 2025).

IMHO, it's quite plausible that not implementing an export ban would have just allowed them to make the transition to domestic production more cheaply and more smoothly.

tablespoon··on Farmers' protest party win shock Dutch vote victory
> She had to step back from public campaigning last year because of death threats. She was told the same fate awaited her as Pim Fortuyn, a populist leader assassinated days before the 2002 Dutch general election.
tablespoon··on The Internet Archive's battle for libraries
>> Make these things less emotionally charged and political, and you'll get more support

> Are we using the same Internet? Clickbait, outrage and emotionally-charged drivel triumphs over measured rational discourse every day of the week

Yeah ... for ad-driven content and messaging about wedge-issues meant to hold together electoral coalitions. Is this one of those things?

If you actually are about issue X, it's probably not a good strategy to let it get polarized along political lines, you might slightly increase your support with one polarization, but you'll increase opposition from the other. That's a recipe having your issue stagnate.

tablespoon··on Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities
> which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then.

That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are delaying tactics, they'll make things harder but not impossible for Russia and China to do certain things, and they might have to make unwanted compromises (e.g. force short-term supply chain issues and redesigning using a less robust common civilian grade chip they can get on the grey market rather than the harder-to-get specialized chip they want).

Basically, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

tablespoon··on Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities
> Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics :

In the short term, I'm sure China will be able to get whatever chips it needs (for military applications, at least) that are available on the civilian market, they'll just have to setup front companies, etc.

In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much.

tablespoon··on When did SVB insiders begin to realize they were in trouble?
> I can equally see a scenario where someone on Facebook or Twitter says "Get out of Wells Fargo" and millions of people would do it.

Who has both 1) an interest in bank balance sheets, and 2) enough clout with Wells Fargo's depositors to cause a SVB-style collapse?

Given how large and diversified Wells Fargo is, I think the only people with the reach to get a message like that out on social media (celebrities) probably don't have the interest or credibility to send such a message and have it listened to.

tablespoon··on Why the Mental Health of Liberal Girls Sank First and Fastest
> Here’s the same data, showing three main effects: gender (women higher), age (youngest groups higher), and politics (liberals higher). The graphs also show three two-way interactions (young women higher, liberal women higher, young liberals higher). And there’s an important three-way interaction: it is the young liberal women who are highest. They are so high that a majority of them said yes, they had been told that they have a mental health condition.

That will probably be denied by claiming the the groups with lower rates are lying about their mental health, due to "inferior" ideology, and the higher rates are a reflection of the "true" human condition.

tablespoon··on How to Beat Russia [pdf]
A half dozen general references to things like the New York Times don't count as a source for the claim, since it's totally impractical for someone to track down where you got your information and read more.

> The concrete thing, though a bit curious, does seem to bear out in photos of their ammo dumps and RF's inability to cure a pad before rebar is stolen (WaPo, NYT, and ChrisO_wiki are good on this issue).

However, the reasoning you give here makes the claim more credible, since it makes clear the problem is corruption not technology.

tablespoon··on Videocard Virtual Museum
It was a joke.
tablespoon··on Videocard Virtual Museum
This museum apparently includes jokes:

https://vgamuseum.ru/gpu/noname/videoloca-bitchin-fast-3d-20...

So, typical Russian disinformation.

tablespoon··on How to Beat Russia [pdf]
> And they have nearly no capacity to replace the sophisticated guided missiles they've used up...

That's not true: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missil...:

"Weapons investigators in Kyiv found that at least one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile used in widespread attacks there on Nov. 23 had been made no earlier than October."

> ...whereas those are available to NATO, and we've seen those be a lot more effective than the dumb artillery.

They are, but I'm under the impression that NATO/the US would also quickly use up their cruise missile stockpiles in the event of a hot war.

> NATO has large stocks of 155mm shells. But they can also buy them because it's become a standard outside of the non Russian influence world. South Korea has a huge production and stock that is under negotiation.

South Korea isn't allowing any of their equipment or ammunition to be exported to Ukraine. The best that enables is for Western countries to play musical chairs and give Ukraine a greater share of their stockpiles/production from other sources.

tablespoon··on White House backs bill that could give it power to ban TikTok nationwide
> I think TikTok is a garbage app that numbs the mind of the already willfully ignorant people, but I absolutely do not support the idea of banning it. The US is supposed to hold itself up as a beacon to other countries on the core ideas that people are free to express themselves and as function of that expression choose which peoples to listen to, even TikTok trash.

> Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

The Constitution also says "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed." The Chinese are people and tanks are arms, but that doesn't mean the Constitution protects their right to drive a column of tanks up to the White House.

The Constitution is not a suicide pact, but broad and literal readings of certain sections would make it so.

tablespoon··on How to Beat Russia [pdf]
> I'm unsure of what source would be appropriate here. I can't point you to a lack of a thing, by definition.

1. You can point to a source with some authority talking about the lack of a thing. Which shouldn't be too hard, since, unless you're ex-Russian Army logistics, you must have learned those claims from somewhere.

2. You can point to a source talking talking about Russian Army logistics, that shows them "moving things by hand" when forklifts would be more appropriate.

3. You can point to a source talking about how all forklifts require really flat concrete, and not all countries can make it because [reasons]. However, you probably can't do that because that would contradict the example I gave of a forklift operating on gravel.

tablespoon··on How to Beat Russia [pdf]
> RF also has virtually no modern logistics for ammo storage or transport. They have no forklifts and few cranes. Most ordnance is moved via rail and then by hand (!). They can't seem to pour a flat enough concrete pad for forklifts to run atop.

Do you have a source for that. The last part (especially) is pretty unbelievable. I would assume that the techniques for pouring flat concrete isn't new, and even if they didn't have it, they could just make forklifts with bigger wheels or something. For instance, here's a US military forklift driving on gravel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forklift#Counterbalanced_forkl....

I do understand the Russians are much more focused on rail for military transport compared to the US, which then let them make design choices that have made it hard to switch to truck transport.

tablespoon··on Signal is for everyone, and everyone is different
> They won't let you decide where the backup goes.

I don't think so. At some point I setup my Signal to send backups to (I think) the "/Signal/Backups2" directory on my phone. My phone doesn't support SD cards, so there may be some quirk with those, but I definitely had some control.

> And I don't want it only as an encrypted blob to bring back into Signal though of course that option should be available. I would actually like the abilityt o export it in a format of my choosing.

That's a nice to have, but it's totally reasonable for them not to support a bunch of random formats someone might like, but hardly anyone would ever use.

If you want a different format, just write a converter. It wouldn't be very hard. The backup is literally an encrypted SQLite DB, and there's a command-line decryptor available (if you have your key).

tablespoon··on Signal is for everyone, and everyone is different
> So can I please be allowed to back up / export my messages and call history?

You can totally back up and export your Signal messages on Android. You export to a file (encrypted with a generated pin), copy that file to a new device, and import that file into Signal. I've done it several times and have never lost a message.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> It is the basis of US-Taiwan relations as a starter.

Only in the context of the PRC. The reality of US-Taiwan relations would be much clearer if it was not PRC policy to sever diplomatic relationship with any country that recognizes Taiwan.

On the topic of Taiwan, it's a mistake to reason about de facto relationships from de jure "official positions." Basically, the "official positions" are lies, and the actual positions are not directly stated. For instance, if the US really considered Taiwan as "part of China," it wouldn't be war-gaming how to militarily repel an invasion from the PRC.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> Russia doesn't have pipelines that connect all their oil facilities to China; the facilities that do connect to China are pretty high-tech, have depended on western companies for maintenance, and don't have a lot of spare capacity.

I believe Russia is already working on building new pipelines to fix that. The Chinese also know how to build things fast, so that doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

> To get the oil from other regions, they'd have to rely on ships...

Is that a problem or just a small inefficiency? Because it doesn't look like a problem to me, short of an all-out war where you've got submarines attacking commercial shipping.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> Maybe they could control simultaneous large scale insurrections. But it would be wise not to be overconfident in that regard.

Why do you think they'd have to deal with any "large scale insurrections"? They easily delt with one HK, once they imposed a Mainland-style security law, because fear evaporated the protests. Those protests also didn't inspire much of a response in the Mainland. They also didn't have to deal with on in Xinjiang, where they implemented so much direct oppression that you'd think they'd have inspired a response if one were possible.

The PRC security apparatus is strong, well organized, and its actions aren't constrained by liberal sensibilities. The PRC population is thoroughly disarmed, disorganized, and dis-informed, so cannot resist it. I think you're indulging in wishful thinking and fantasy.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more.

Why would they be "scared shitless"? They've demonstrated the ability to crack down hard and defeat those movements. For instance: the Hong Kong protests ended almost immediately once China decided to take the gloves off.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it.

The question is, can Taiwan get there? I doubt it, and if it tries and fails to reach the threshold, it will only provoke China (or more specifically, the Chinese leadership).

Limited nuclear war is an automatic loss condition for Taiwan, but it's only very costly to China. I believe nuclear weapons in Taiwan is one of China's stated red lines that will trigger war.

tablespoon··on Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
> Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

I think you missed my point: there's synergy between the West's two pariahs. Russia can provide the food and oil China needs, and China can supply manufactured goods to Russia (and Africa and all kinds of other places that won't fall in line behind whatever the West wants them to do).

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