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665 karma · joined March 13, 2008

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startingup··on Google's YouTube Founder/CEO + Google's AdMob Founder Both Step Down
The trouble with the AdMob-like behavior is that acquirers pretty much know founders would flip and go. No rational acquirer these days can expect founders to stick around very long. It may happen - YouTube guys stuck around - but the odds don't favor it.

Golden handcuffs and such only go so far, because if a person's mind is not fully engaged, what's the point in him or her showing up?

This has the effect of lowering the price acquirers would want to pay. I have seen this dynamic play out. When one of the companies I am involved with acquired a small company (note that most such deals are never publicly announced), they simply told the founders to stick around 3-6 months, hand over the technology and go. There was not even a plan to ask them to stick around. Of course, the price paid reflected that. This is the flip-side of the "talent acquisition" deals we read about - pure tech acquisitions, valued only for the code and the jump-start it gives someone else.

startingup··on Hedge fund invests in LinkedIn at more than $2 Billion valuation
I am noticing a trend lately where private market valuations seem higher than what equivalent public companies get. Of course, it is hard to find a public company equivalent of Facebook or LinkedIn, but I would say Google can be a good proxy for FB or LI.

This is puzzling at first: if private parties thought public markets were undervalued, why won't they directly invest in already public companies?

I believe the answer has to be that private parties believe private companies are relatively undervalued compared to what "they should be" in public markets - in other words, they are not undervalued compared to currently public companies, but they are undervalued compared to some notion of what they ought to be as public companies themselves.

This idea is not surprising - after all every start-up investment, almost by definition, reflects the investor's bet that they found something that is "relatively undervalued compared to its eventual public status."

startingup··on Forbes 400 Data Shows Paul Graham Is Wrong
I made that original comment. Thanks for doing the analysis I was too lazy to do! Your analysis jives with the broader point I was trying to make - in the past 15 years, finance has been the surest path to riches in America. It is not just at the level of the Forbes 400. During the real estate bubble, newly minted mortgage brokers (often coming from other fields such as car sales, they found selling debt far more lucrative) were taking home $0.5 million - and not just a few of them. I have had acquaintances in Goldman, at fairly low level in the org chart, who have been taking home similar sums in bonuses every year. I know Unix systems administrators in Wall Street who take home ~$300K/year - and these guys are generally very low in the Wall Street totem pole.

It has been the age of the financier for a while now. No, this is not capitalism at work; it is Federal Reserve policy. It allowed specially privileged entities to lever up (30x leverage in case of investment banks like Goldman or Morgan Stanley, 10x in case of hedge funds), allow them to speculate with easy money, and have them pay out huge bonuses in case of investment banks or huge carried profit in case of hedgies ... and finally bail them out when their leverage blew up on them, only to have them start speculating all over again.

startingup··on Why do Harvard kids head to Wall Street?
pg, unfortunately for America, in recent years most of the highest paid people (to the tune of hundreds of millions per person) have been financiers. Even fairly successful outcomes in the start-up world, such as Mint.com to take a random example, don't make founders that rich.

I suspect if you look at the new inclusions in Forbes 400 list over the past 10 years, that list (of deltas) would be dominated by Finance. This is not a good thing.

startingup··on A new approach to China: an update
I have some colleagues and good friends in Beijing, most of them coming from various provinces to Beijing for their jobs - they are not high up in the ladder socio-economically. The impression I get is that they love China (to the extent of choosing not to go abroad to live and work), but resent the party's overbearing ways. They are not going to go out and protest, but that doesn't mean they like their government much either. They tell me banned publications are fairly widely available, if you know how to find them, and many of them are fairly knowledgeable about stuff the party doesn't want them to know about.
startingup··on Facebook Revenues Up to $700M, On Track Towards $1.1B
My suspicion is that Facebook revenues could be much higher than they are letting on. I say that as a non-Facebook user and a fairly neutral outside observer. If they were being coy because revenues were actually too good, it wouldn't be the first company to do so. Google was coy about its revenue in the 2002-3 timeframe, and it surprised a lot of people when it was later revealed just how much they were making.

Here is my theory: Facebook's traffic, measured in terms of users or page views is about even with Yahoo. Facebook has the added advantage that every single page view is a from a logged in user, who has provided Facebook with a fair amount of personal information, far, far more than what Yahoo has. Facebook has considerable information from the users' profiles as well as their various activity streams that Facebook tracks. This should enable Facebook to target its ads more precisely than Yahoo can, and therefore achieve at least as much revenue as Yahoo. From an advertiser perspective, it would seem like Facebook, with its vastly superior knowledge of user behavior, should be a better bet than old-school Yahoo. Of course, Facebook probably hasn't pushed its sales efforts as hard as mature Yahoo; still, I would expect Facebook to be doing a goodly fraction of Yahoo's revenue, which is running north of $6 billion per year.

If you buy my theory, long term, Facebook should overtake Yahoo in revenue; in fact a lot of Facebook revenue will likely come by stealing advertisers from Yahoo. So the company with the most to fear from Facebook is not Google but Yahoo.

startingup··on Intercourse and Intelligence
I sense too much negativity and frustration on this thread. I can sympathize. I was exactly the same way at 24, a nerd who couldn't hold a conversation with the opposite sex, had rejection after rejection, and was pretty depressed about it too.

I consciously decided to "improve" myself. Here are things I did:

1. Improved my wardrobe. Believe me, it makes a difference. 2. Consciously taught myself to listen, and ask questions that will lead to more conversation. 3. Consciously taught myself to gauge the level of interest of the other person. Move on if the other person isn't interested - as they say, there is always more fish in the ocean. 4. Push the envelope a little bit ... the man has to push - you have to ask for the phone number! And it is a good way to gauge interest. 5. Don't forget that some level of IQ compatibility is critical. Just as "they" don't want the nerd in you, may be some of the "airhead" types aren't great to be around for you either.

Let me just say that I hit success after consciously doing it. It is like doing a start-up. Know your strengths and know how to compensate for your weaknesses - a superior IQ can help you figure out how to compensate :-)

startingup··on The Temporarily Disappearing Estate Tax
This is one of those evil taxes - you pay a life time of taxes and accumulate stuff, and then when you die, it gets dinged another 55%.
startingup··on Git: The Lean, Mean, Distributed Machine
Can anyone compare Git vs Mercurial? This decision is coming up for us, and would appreciate the input.
startingup··on Only 8 of top global 25 companies in 1999 are still in top 25 in 2009
You hit the nail on the head. This is really the effect of the massive credit bubble - natural resource companies and financials. Given the way things are going, we will likely see a lot more of this in the next decade.
startingup··on How China Won and Russia Lost
There is an interesting analogy to India too, which had a sclerotic, state-dominated economic system for 40+ years. India had far less of a dispora than China, but far more than Russia. And India's economic reforms have been half-hearted, and results have been in between China and Russia.
startingup··on Stallman Urges EC to Stop Oracle Acquisition of Sun
In the name of freedom, what the MySQL flavor of GPL has achieved is to give special powers of dual-licensing to the "original author" - all animals are equal, some animals are more equal than the others. The MySQL business model is entirely based on this special power they reserved for themselves. Stallman's defense of it (which is not new) is precisely why I have always been wary of using GPL code and am a passionate believer in BSD/MIT license approach to software freedom.

The time has come for a reevaluation of what constitutes real open source. I believe GPL should be excluded from it, and the MySQL business model is the classic example.

To those who answer "Linux", keep in mind that Torvalds unilaterally declared that applications that run on top of Linux (calling Linux via the standard libraries) are exempt from GPL. This is in effect LGPL, not GPL.

MySQL specifically takes the opposite tack: any application that uses the database using standard libraries comes under GPL, for distribution purposes.

LGPL and GPL are very different animals.

startingup··on Rupert Murdoch Says Google Is Stealing His Content. So Why Doesn't He Stop Them?
I think the real debate here is that value in the internet is moving relentlessly away from content producers towards content aggregators. Even a big newspaper site doesn't have the diversity that you find in an aggregator like Google News; likewise, no tech blog can compete with the diversity of news in Hacker News. I visit TechMeme and Hacker News far more than I visit any single blog, for example. TechMeme makes far more money than any professional tech blogger too.

Aggregators tend to build much more value to themselves quickly by riding on other people's content. Yet, aggregators are worth nothing without the underlying content. This irks many content producers, particularly the professional ones whose output accounts of the bulk of the traffic that aggregators end up sending. This trend of professionally produced content accounting for the bulk of the links is evident even in Hacker News.

If these trends continue, giant aggregators could end up controlling much of the content. Yahoo already produces a lot of content, and licenses content for Yahoo News (which is fitting considering Yahoo News has more traffic than any news site in the world). Google News, Digg etc. could follow.

This is the future I suspect Murdoch does not like, because it appears from his perspective to be third parties building value out of his content, without compensating him. Legally, I am not sure he has a claim - if there is a lawsuit on this, it will reach the Supreme Court, that's for sure.

startingup··on Ask HN: I've tried lots of things but haven't finished any.
When I was in college, I wanted it all - wanted to prove theorems, found companies, join politics and so on. As I got older, I realized that just getting deeply focused on one thing gives you all manner of creative opportunities. Pick one area, and get in deeper and deeper - that would be my advice.
startingup··on What's the Secret Success of Mint.com? The Real Numbers...
This is a great article, but keep in mind that the numbers are illustrative of one type of company. Mint was dealing with financial information, so they had to get "serious" fast and that means spending on things that, say, a Facebook or Twitter would not have had to spend. They project $30/per user for user acquisition (if I read that right), which again is very different for different kinds of companies, and different business models. Extremely high value niche companies would pay hundreds of dollars per user. On the other side Twitter being a mass player, would spend far, far less. Financial sites are valuable, so $30 seems like a good deal.
startingup··on How Private Equity Destroys Businesses and Jobs
I am afraid this is the predictable consequence of the Fed orchestrated monster credit bubble. These private equity players, through investment banking and other financial intermediaries are able to borrow close to the low Fed-orchestrated rate, while the companies they buy could not access the same cheap money, without which there is no basis for these deals. It was the "Age of the Financier" and every such age ended in mass misery. There is a reason all major religions prohibit usury, and in most traditional societies, making money on money is viewed with discomfort. After all, as the biblical story has it, Jesus chased the money changers from the temple.

The past 25+ years have been a mass redistribution of wealth towards the financial class, discouraging real capital accumulation in favor of playing games with money. This is not a free market at work, as some of these fraudulent "Wall Street Capitalists" would have you believe. Without an ever-accommodating Fed, , they would have been wiped out a long time ago.

startingup··on Objective Lua
I agree. This would only complicate the language, without adding much of value.
startingup··on A terrible tragedy: Dan Haubert of Ticketstumbler (fallentimes) has passed away
My heartfelt condolences.
startingup··on Mark Zuckerberg: The evolution of a remarkable CEO
I attended a presentation he made some time ago, and came away really impressed. He has a remarkably clear vision, understands what not to do as much as what to do, and seems to know his own strengths and weaknesses. I agree - he is a remarkable CEO.
startingup··on Working for startups sucks, you'll be happier working for The Man
The reason this "upside" notion is so pernicious is that it's fed by powerful biases. We read about the successes. Even the failures we hear about, we're reading about them by and large because they were "successful".

You hit the nail on the head. I know 4 very talented engineers who have been in silicon valley for 12+ years each. I have tried to recruit all of them at various times, but they have always been swimming in great offers, in good times and bad, so they are good. Between them, they have worked in at least 10 start-ups. While none of them are starving, no one got rich either. They have lived frugally, so they have a decent pile saved up, but that was done the old fashioned way, not through hitting the lottery.

startingup··on Working for startups sucks, you'll be happier working for The Man
I worked in a large successful tech company right after school. One of the best periods of my life. I learned a lot, worked on really cool technology, and I was treated well. I left for reasons unconnected to them, with much regret.

There exist great start-ups, great big companies, lousy start-ups and lousy big companies. And within great companies, big or small, there exist lousy situations. Your immediate boss and your colleagues have more to do with your happiness than almost anything else.

startingup··on 25 years of GNU - support software freedom
My point was that FSF achieved its maximal influence during the reign of Microsoft. And I argue that is not a coincidence.
startingup··on 25 years of GNU - support software freedom
I clarified my point above: forking MySQL will not solve the "GPL-in-the-hands-of-Oracle-salesmen" problem. Any forks will still be bound by MySQL's original terms, which in practice amounted to "You need to pay us if you ever ask us about the license, particularly if you are a rich company, unless you bring a lawyer to argue with us." Keep in mind that Oracle salesmen are 100 times better at it than MySQL salesmen.

My broader point is really about the problems of GPL in the real world, not open source in general. I am a huge fan of BSD/MIT/Apache, and thankfully a lot of contributors these days seem to like those licenses.

I have always viewed open source contributions as a form of charity. GPL is a highly encumbered form of charity (it is still charity, but think of charities tied closely to particular religious points of view). BSD/MIT/Apache is much more freely and liberally given and embody a generosity of spirit ("My charity recipients do not need to follow my religion"). My philosophical preference is the latter.

startingup··on 25 years of GNU - support software freedom
Exactly my feeling. My thesis is that FSF achieved its popularity in the heyday of Microsoft monopoly serving as a counter-force, and as Microsoft's hegemony declined (thanks in part to FSF's efforts), it has become less relevant. Open source (I intentionally do not want to use Stallman's language on this) is thriving but FSF is not.

GPL is way too dogmatic, and given the fact that most free software actually is written by people with a paycheck from those hated proprietary software companies (at any rate, companies that definitely do not buy into FSF dogma), there always has been an underlying tension between their philosophy and the vast majority of contributors to open source. Basically Stallman wants them to feel dirty getting that paycheck.

As a result, we are moving to a different phase in the open source world - focus on code, not on the politics.

I want to add an illustration of the perverse effects GPL produced in practice. MySQL - now in the hands of Larry Ellison ... there must be some irony there - perfectly shows how to use GPL in a very "interesting" way. I have dealt with MySQL salesmen on several occasions, so I know how they "use" GPL. Basically they would assert with full confidence that your use-case (whatever it may be) would violate GPL, so you have to pony up unless you want all your code to be GPL. They knew how to exploit "GPL fear" in companies, but would back down in most cases once you bring a lawyer.

That is the practical real world effect of dogma. My prediction: MySQL will be orphaned intentionally by Oracle. No one else is going to touch it because forking the MySQL code will not let anyone escape the famous Oracle salesmen.

startingup··on Who need XSS when you can simply ask?
Summary (it is all a little meta for me): the reddit link above started as a fairly innocuous reddit thread comparing the sizes of the two books "Javascript - The Definitive Guide" and "Javascript - The Good Parts" - the Good Parts being a good deal smaller as the linked photograph illustrates.

Some wise guy decided to have a little joke, and posted a comment instructing people to copy and paste a snippet of Javascript on their URL location bar. A lot of people (presumably "web programmers") did as instructed. That little snippet posts a comment on that same thread, instructing the next person to do the same. That entire reddit thread is overrun with those script generated comments.

Social lesson: we are fked as far as security is concerned, if that reddit thread is any indication: even programmers would sheep-like do as they are instructed. I suppose that was the "lesson" the wise guy had in mind.

Some good samaritan posted another Javascript snippet to clean up the reddit thread - automatically downvote the spam comments or hide them.

startingup··on Why are the Russians so good at chess?
Simons is worth several billions ($10 billion perhaps?) and the number of mathematicians with at least 3 articles in the Annals of Mathematics cannot be huge (1000 perhaps?). I am pretty sure that was what Simons was getting at. Seeing your smiley, I assume you knew that too!
startingup··on Keynes, Explained Briefly
Government printing money increases capital? Do you even know what "capital" means? By your definition Zimbabwe has extreme amounts of capital ... that seems to have done them a lot of good.
startingup··on Keynes, Explained Briefly
Quote (supposedly "explaining" why unemployment happens):

It used to be, Keynes says, that wealthy men just thought investing was the manly thing to do. They weren’t going to sit around and calculate what kind of bonds yielded the greatest expected return. Bonds are for wusses. They were real men. They were going to take their money and build a railroad.

But they don’t make rich people like that anymore. Nowadays, they put their money in the stock market. Instead of boldly picking one great enterprise to invest in, they shift their money around from week to week (or hire someone else to do it for them). So these days, it’s the stock market that stimulates most new investment.

Even accepting this explanation, it is worth asking why they don't make rich people who invest in building real stuff rather than chasing paper anymore. What happened to the innate human drive, curiosity and so on? Why is it that downturns in 19th century corrected themselves, but now we need more and more government intervention, progressively more every cycle?

In Economics cause and effect are often difficult to separate, but one reasonable hypothesis is that the widespread adoption of Keynesian policies themselves caused rich people to chase paper, leaving it to government/Federal Reserve to manipulate the stock market to try to stimulate investment indirectly. In other words, Keynesian policies beget more Keynesian policies, in the process generating a whole bunch of Keynesian economists who can "correctly" claim "We told you"; we reach the point where the government runs most of the economy, robbing people of initiative ("we don't make real men anymore").

If you travel to socialist countries, you will observe this in effect. The population displays a curious passivity ("that is the government's problem"). No one thinks about taking the initiative because the incentives systems are all wrong.

startingup··on Facts About Entrepreneurs That Will Likely Surprise You
I am not sure I am hot on the startup vs small company distinction, because there exist so many examples of cross-overs. First, there are a lot of tech "startups" (meeting pg's definition) that have preferred to stay small, becoming "lifestyle businesses" as the pejorative term has it (no, it is not my preferred term!). I bet I can think of many that started out as startups, but would not meet pg's definition of startup anymore; there may even be a few YC-backed companies in that list. The opposite also occurs and has occurred, a non-scalable-model based small business morphing into a scalable company.

At some level, all taxonomies break down, but startup vs small business taxonomy isn't very strong to begin with.

startingup··on GPL declines as open source moves to the Web
Personally I generally advise our developers to avoid using GPL-ed software, even as part of web services, as much as possible - only exception being Linux, which we use as a OS, but we are moving to BSD steadily.

Surprisingly (or perhaps not so surprisingly) there are excellent non-GPL open source alternatives today. And my subjective impression is that recent open source projects that use GPL are less popular than BSD/MIT/Apache based alternatives. That may be confirmation bias, of course.

So in that sense, I agree that GPL is declining ... frankly, I am happy with that development, because I don't consider GPL to be a license so much as a political philosophy, a philosophy I strongly disagree with. Which is why we choose not to use GPL software to the maximum extent possible (much as Stallman would choose not to use the software we create, which is perfectly fine with me!).

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