Why do Harvard kids head to Wall Street?
baselinescenario.com
baselinescenario.com
I think a lot of what this says is accurate, but I think it downplays something important. It's not just that there's a lot of money in Wall Street, it's that it's not a great time to be (for example) a physicist in this country, or at least it wasn't when I graduated. I remember a friend of mine telling me how you were typically looking at two postdocs after your PhD, and then your options were either to be an academic or to build weapons. (That guy, ironically, is the one who stuck with physics.)
So apparently a lot of people took the money. Those kids could grind, and it all must have just seemed too easy. I find it hard to judge too harshly. A part of me feels like we failed them as a society, in the way we collectively assign value to human activities. Because their minds are capable of things I can only imagine, but we couldn't think of anything better for them to do than this.
This dynamic creates a nice positive feedback loop. Once you have a high enough concentration of sharp people, it's easy to get more. Good startups leverage the same phenomenon.
Also, why should "we [...] as a society" think of something "better" (who defines that?) for these bright minds? Surely, they know best how to make their own choices (where I'd emphasize _make_)?
> Surely, they know best how to make their own choices
People don't generally make their own choices. People tend to gather 2 or 3 options (4 or 5 if they're from top schools) and then they "decide" by picking one of those options. It's completely baffling, but people are guided by the choices in front of them, not by where they want to go.
Disclaimer: I'm of the opinion that it's better for society's best and brightest to use their skills to improve society for themselves and everyone else in the most universally helpful manner.
When I later heard about this supposed pipeline of Ivy League people going into finance, I always wondered what the deal was. I assume it's primarily a geographical thing. Firms like McKinsey are all over the place, whereas finance is centered on Wall St., so they go for more local recruiting.
Of course some of my college friends did eventually end up going into Wall St. stuff. One after being a physics prof at MIT, another after doing a physics post doc and not finding any other physics jobs, and another left McKinsey and got a PhD in finance. Stochastic calculus FTW!
To the extent that this is true, it applies equally well to most people who excel in school, and I think there's a point there that the author leaves untouched.
And that is that it's emotionally very hard to watch your friends — especially people who appear less intelligent, diligent, or otherwise "worthy" (that's subjective, obviously) — make significantly more money than you. In the long term, that can strain friendships, and I think it's a major explanatory factor in why smart kids go "waste" their talent in finance and consulting.
In other words, appearing to be less successful than one's peers is something that few overachievers are emotionally capable of handling.
So you have the big bad world of the unknown, or this nice bunch of people, who also went to your school, and really want you to come over to New York and hang out with them.
Risk avoidance, ironically, is a fantastic skill for risk takers to have --- as they end up minimizing risks skillfully.
I am also not sure that in this regard risk and reward are proportionate. Again I have no data, but I think a random sample of 100 people from Harvard who went into finance 5-15 years ago may have made more money to date (and taken far less risk) than a random sample of 100 college students who started startups 5-15 years ago.
I think the fear of not knowing what else to do, not the money, is the primary force that leads most to finance or consulting. Anecdotally, 0-10% of my friends from college have any concrete thoughts at all about what they really want to do.
As for the risk/reward ratio, you may be right, or you may be wrong, but since neither of us have any data we should probably default to the assumption that they're proportionate.
If one startup in five "succeeds" and the average return is 5M after 5 years of work, then the expected annual "salary" is 200K. Not a completely unreasonable figure for investment banking (I have no clue what the real numbers are. Plus, not everyone can work in wall street or do a startup)
If that's the case, then a startup would be similar to a lottery ticket. Do it for the thrill, do it for the experience, but don't do it for the money.
I suspect if you look at the new inclusions in Forbes 400 list over the past 10 years, that list (of deltas) would be dominated by Finance. This is not a good thing.
Only one post-Bubble company (Facebook) currently looks like it has a good shot at making its founder a billionaire. Compare to newly minted finance billionaires Steven Cohen, James Simons, Peter Thiel (also the founder of PayPal, but he made his billion in finance, not software), Ray Dalio, John Paulson, Kenneth Griffin and dozens more.
However, you could do a crude back of the envelope calculation now, based on average exits for series A funded companies. I believe the average (again, dominated by the big wins) is on the order of $100m. If you assume founders have 10% at exit, that's $10m. Currently 20-25% of YC funded cos raise series A. So if you ignore startups that don't raise series A (which could be an increasingly large mistake), you get a lower bound of $2m to $2.5m per founder.
Interesting. I'd never done that calculation.
The bogusness of it, of course, is evident from the fact that your expected value is so dependent on the performance of the other startups we accept. If 100% of the startups we funded went on to raise series A, the expected value would jump to $10m. And of course we have no idea how well YC funded startups will do compared to series A funded startups in general.
Side question: You seem more aware of YC contribution to startup performance. Does this mean you see YC more as competing with other investors and less with graduate programs (I think I recall you mentioning that on some old thread).
If the really big exits are dominating the figures, then that will make the odds of your startup "solving the money problem" seem larger than they really are.
But for a back-of-envelope calculation this could be a pedantic quibble.
Present value for $2.5m received in 5 years using a 15% rate (say you are accounting for high risk) is about $1.2m.
Solved?
Is that counting all the series A funded companies which never exit? $100M sounds about right to me as an average exit size, but only after excluding non-exits.
In aggregate startups should actually provide greater than proportionate rewards as they're not merely more risky, but also more poorly defined and require more internal motivation.
It's a very different world now where Ivy League overachievers are writing blog posts about choosing between startups and investment banking. Google is the new model. From a weirdo outsider's perspective the Google era startup story sounds very similar to the investment banking path, with a few keywords switched here and there. Elite educations, maybe going all the way back to Montessori school. Please list your GPA and take this quiz for a chance at a week long interview hazing session. Operate under the context of "changing the world" but stay focused on maximizing return in the markets of eyeballs, clicks, keywords and ads. Complicated business models; make something which you don't sell and makes no money, but the data can be packaged into a new form of financial instrument for the online ad market. Sell off the thing in a couple years for a few mil, buy an Audi, try to do it again. Goal is to ultimately hit it big enough so that you can avoid building stuff entirely. Dream about ultimately becoming an investor yourself, coaching other type-A wunderkinds through the difficult life process of choosing one high-paying career over another one, and maybe complaining about taxes and poor service at French Laundry on your blog.
It's a little oversimplified, but wanted to bring back the notion that the startup scene also represents a path to success for creative and strange people without otherwise great career options. It's not just a way for Harvard kids to make as much money as they would in banking without having to wear a suit.
I'm speaking as a senior at a college to which a huge number of firms come to recruit and a huge percentage of the senior class heads into banking or consulting.
I'm doing neither, but the draw was definitely there. Especially the part about lifestyle appeal over money appeal. When companies recruit, they never explicitly talk about how much they pay, but their recruiting videos and the demeanor of the recruiters and employees who come to visit say everything needed.
I heard someone say that during the height of the dotcom boom, Yahoo made over a billion dollars by putting a big purple chair in the lobby. Something about social signaling to attract the right sort of people on the cheap.
I would like to disagree, and recall the second paragraph of this comment by xxzz: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1242980
Thats the issue I see with it. I guess only time will show if my perspective changes.
All I'm saying is that perhaps society would be better off if the resources were allocated a little less efficiently, but those "best minds" were applied to some other field.
This is largely because pure technology companies can succeed by culturally incentivizing good engineering, which is timeless. Banks have much shorter horizons in building systems of comparable complexity, and thus have a far greater need to constantly mobilize and change architectural direction. This is just a fact of the industry: technology advances, finance is cyclical. One of the cultural side effects, which certainly can have sinister implications, is that financial institutions lean heavily on monetary incentives to provide such mobility.
There has obviously been a lot of bad press on structured credit, but the basic concept is ultimately a great innovation in risk management.
Surely there was excess. But before ye great engineers start throwing stones, consider how much your current occupation is aided by the massive corridors of fiber optics constructed during the tech boom.
Instead of taking a wireless signal and deciphering what bits were transmitted, you take a stock market signal and decipher where the market will move next.
So, instead of solving engineering problems and getting paid decently, one can solve financial problems and get paid much much more.
If the intellectual stimulation is there in both cases I don't see why someone would choose to be an engineer any more.
Of course, this can't go on. The Wall Street guy doesn't actually create anything, just uses arbitrage to make some cream off of all the dollars these investment banks move around. Or exploit some foreign imbalance. They are the ultimate middle men.
You still need actual people to solve the problems in this world. Or will this all be moved off shore?
We absolutely need smart minds to go into finance because some sort of economic system must exist and everyone will admit the current one needs improvement. Still, there's not reason to resent people who invest in companies that succeed and make a lot of money doing it. This is almost certainly good for the economy, and I would bet that the majority of people who read HN do the same thing Wall Streeters do on a smaller scale by investing in the market.
This is one of the reasons Google went for a dutch-style auction process for its IPO, and wall street was pissed, since they couldn't use their usual methods to make money from that.
The other things Wall St does is mergers and acquisitions, where they make huge amounts of money on consulting fees.
I mean, sure they do a lot more. They increase liquidity in the market, they help companies get loans, but most of it is moving money around, and getting a fee for it.
- it ensures that the cost of goods in separate markets remain aligned,
- it creates capital, which can then be invested in other ventures.
Markets would be less efficient without arbitrage.
*I read people's minds.
Basically, people in general are depressing. That's not a finance thing, that's a human nature thing.
I'm certainly afraid of what the future holds. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't. And this fear almost had me applying to McKinsey and Goldman (along with 30% of my class). But in the end I realized that doing something I'm deeply passionate about (hacking) far outweighs any of the apparent benefits of a cushy Wall Street gig. I think it's time for me to stop worrying about leaving doors open, and start sprinting through one. Maybe I'll end up choosing the wrong door, but I'm confident that I'll learn more at that pace and with that passion than I ever would have in the monotony of a chic midtown office. I've never been so scared in my life. But I've never been so hungry. We'll see how it goes.
(Btw, incidentally, my brother (one year younger) is interning on Wall Street this year. I'm interested to compare notes...)
All the time, you could be looking at someway to make their job easier -> there is your startup.
I strongly agree with the building up capital thing, though. If you can save up 50k, and you can handle everything yourself, your runway becomes extremely long. Just have to be careful not to get addicted to the salary.
If it's expensive, banks like it. Quality is a plus, but not required.
There's no question that there's lots of money to be made on Wall St., but such activities don't really seem to improve the world or anybody's life other than the bankers. Compare that to people who form startups that can literally change the world for the better.
Wall St, with its massively inflated salaries and bonuses creates a huge brain-drain which attracts bright students away from more socially-useful activities. I think anger about that is the primary source.
There is plenty of software that does not really make the world a better place. How much of the time do we engineers spend complaining about crappy code that doesn't work? Or take video games, sure they provide entertainment, but do they have a net positive impact on society? It's dubious at best (not that I don't love SC2).
I don't want to sound too negative, but maybe a lot of finance people aren't adding much value, but neither are most programmers. And there are clearly counterexamples in both industries.
Furthermore, try to imagine our economy without the stock market. It would be very different. That's a clear indication that there is some value there. Granted the market is surely not an optimal system, but that's a hard problem that smart minds absolutely need to be working on.
Of course you may have a point when games like World of Warcraft ruin people's lives, but from a monetary (and thus time) magnitude, wall st. has wiped out people's savings that have taken decades to build.
Also, I didn't say there wasn't value in entertainment, I said that it probably doesn't provide more utility than Wall Street's activities although really it's comparing apples to bowling balls.
Do you blame sick people for not being smarter than a doctor in diagnosing their own sickness?
Do you blame people for dying in a bridge that collapsed because they weren't smart enough to see it was poorly designed?
I could go on and on. The point is that Wall Street has somehow become the only place with no accountability, and everyone is supposed to be an expert.
* working in finance is bad
* working in corporate law is bad
* working in consulting is bad
* working at a startup is bad
* working as a college professor is bad
* working a "public interest" job is good
I don't see anything here that makes me want to take this person's point of view seriously.
What he's implying is that it's "bad" to throw away your life-long ambitions for a bit of extra money. If your life-long ambition is to be a kick-ass corporate lawyer or investment banker, then there's nothing bad about that at all.
Go down to your local franchised fast-food shop. Chances are the kitchen equipments been leased from the franchise and financed by a finance lease from an investment bank. The impact of risk-tolerant financing on the economy is huge, it's pretty much everywhere when you scratch under the surface.
The same applies for FX spreads. If you're importing or exporting any goods (pretty much everyone these days) then you're benefiting from the tighter spreads created by investment banks that are market making.
People make decisions based on their sense of what is possible. We hang out on HN and join things like YC to be surrounded by people who reinforce the possibility of our big crazy dreams.
College career offices are the single most antiquarian institution on college campuses, and the institution most letting a generation of people into the embrace of the only external groups who are willing to pay for the privilege to be there.
Still, there is massive movement against this tide. Teach for America is outrecruiting these firms at many of the best schools - which demonstrates the opportunity for alternative organizations and just generally alternative thinking.
But most schools are not Stanford, and most students don't think in terms of startups yet. Finding ways to spread an entrepreneurial culture on campus and connect it to the broader movement towards a new shape of the American business landscape has huge potential to shift what is at the root of this story.
First of all, not everyone at Harvard is going to law school or pursuing law in any manner (including graduate students there).
Of my friends who attended Harvard, surely some have moved into the finance field but I think part of it is that it is one of the few fields that can (and will) compensate and challenge them properly. Others have gone to work for Google and Microsoft. Others have gone into consulting firms and others have struck out on their own and ran their own consulting firms and companies. By no means is it a clear pipeline that funnels everyone over.
From MIT I see a lot of people going into defense related areas, and not Wall St (more so than Harvard).
And while some Harvard (or any) undergraduate students have little experience at 'life' or getting things done, just look at last weekend's ROFLCon for an example of what a handful of recent Harvard undergrads can do in their spare time.
I feel like the passion and creativity required to do a startup aren't any more common in the ivy league population than they are in the general population. Every intelligent person doesn't have the ability to make things happen. And job in the public sector or for a non-profit doesn't seem appealing, especially not to competitive people. So if you're going to get a regular job, Wall St seems like it's as good a place as any, especially if they're actively recruiting you.
Whew.
im going get downvoted like hell for this but saying all finance jobs are soul sucking cushy jobs is like saying your startup, yes YOURS, is the next google/facebook/twitter/blah
The following program, sponsored by VCs: VC firm takes you on as a protege. You don't know anything; you're not expected to. There's no guarantee of funding, although the door is open, and you draw a meager stipend (if needed) rather than a salary. You work for startups for the next 7+ years, possibly in the VC firm's portfolio companies, possibly elsewhere. At the end of the 7-year period, you choose between (1) partnership in the firm as a businessman, (2) the same but as EIR, or (3) to remain in startups as a serial entrepreneur. You spend a day per month at the VC firm, shadowing senior partners, but most of your time you spend with your head down coding.
I would have loved to have had such an opportunity coming out of school, and would have easily been one of the few most qualified applicants in the country... but this program didn't exist when I was 23 and, as far as I know, still doesn't.
VC firms out there need to make this happen for the next generation of young people.
Also: analyst programs are designed to filter for the people with an unconditional work ethic-- people who will cut corners and work 100-hour weeks but simply will not miss a deadline, no matter how arbitrary, and people who will take the most awful work with a smile on their empty faces. This is a bad employee from a startup's perspective, because startups need people who write quality code (hard to do if you're working till 3:00 am) reliably and are willing to question others' decisions.
So, 15 years ago smart people were making money on Wall Street, while smart techies making money in Mobile and Communication sectors.
They were a good opportunities to those, who was smart enough to see them, while the rest of us were coded PHP and HTML (or J2EE - the luckiest ones) for food. =)