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stanrivers

2,158 karma · joined September 29, 2020

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stanrivers··on FDA authorizes one-dose Covid-19 vaccine
Once again, science saves the day!

Glad to see the FDA move quickly and prioritize things. Good work to all involved.

stanrivers··on Taxing Families Like Companies
This is a summary of everything - well done. Taxing profits versus taxing revenues. So deductions and whatnot complicate that slightly, but not much.
stanrivers··on SolarWinds CEO blames intern for password leak
If you have a system setup where a single intern can destroy your company, you are doing something wrong.

Let's even say the intern was malicious and trying to do harm... that is still your fault. One person in the lowest position in the company can break everything? Again, you are setup incorrectly.

stanrivers··on 30k Hours (2019)
Agreed with the idea that at some point you plateau with the thing you are doing. Its frustrating, because you can't always see a way to change it. Sometimes that is life, I guess - because there is more to life than just being the absolutely best at one thing in life. It is ok to plateau and "collect dividends" (paycheck, nice hours, promotions over time, etc) and focus on challenging yourself in other aspects of your life.
stanrivers··on Quitting Twitter
This is the right way - what you see constantly will eventually program you a certain way. If you want to be a troll-y sarcastic person, make sure you see lots of tweets like that. Want to be a person who constantly dunks on the success of others, make sure you have lots of tweets to read like that.

Don't want to be that kind of person? Better make sure you are not consuming that kind of stuff. It starts to come out unconsciously if you are not careful.

stanrivers··on 1,000 True Fans (2008)
This reminds me of the concept of "Pareto distributions"...

>In the early 1900s, an Italian engineer, sociologist, economist, political scientist, and philosopher (but he was probably no fun at parties, so you got him there) named Vilfredo Pareto became fascinated by the ideas of wealth and power – namely, how is wealth distributed across society? (Interestingly, he did not start this work until his forties, so it is never to late to make a difference.)

>Ever diligent, he pulled data from the 1400s through his modern times and found the same pattern everywhere. Whereas people had previously assumed that wealth would be distributed in a flat, upward-sloping line from poor to rich, what Pareto found was in fact a hockey stick – a small percentage of the population holds a majority of the wealth.[1]

So basically, a small number of all the "individuals" account for a large portion of the overall pool... the same would be true for fans... there is a universe of potential fans out there... millions of them. You need to find the ones at the edge of the chart that are willing to pay - those are true fans.

Other examples:

>The majority of scientific papers are published by a very small group of scientists. A tiny proportion of musicians produces almost all the recorded commercial music. Just a handful of authors sell all the books. A million and a half separately titled books (!) sell each year in the US. However, only five hundred of these sell more than a hundred thousand copies. Similarly, just four classical composers (Bach, Beethoven, Mozart, and Tchaikovsky) wrote almost all the music played by modern orchestras.

So I think the takeaway is, focus on making those people that truly care happy. Don't try to make the 90%+ that are not going to pay you much happy. Make the smaller percentage that are going to be with you for years with large money happy... it is easy to chase short term profits or short term incentives... invest in the long term for those rare ones that find value in what you are doing AND are willing to pay for it.

[1] Chart here: https://www.butwhatfor.com/stand-up-straight-with-your-shoul...

stanrivers··on A Simple Way to Reduce Cognitive Bias
Reminds me a bit of David Foster Wallace's famous speech... the idea that the real reason you should strive for education is to control and understand your thoughts? Which is hard - how often I find I am on auto-pilot and then hours later I am in the wrong place with work or trying to solve a problem and didn't even notice. Or worse, a bias puts me in a bad mood and then I am stuck there because I don't pay attention to how this time its different / not the same.

>The really significant education in thinking that we’re supposed to get in a place like this isn’t really about the capacity to think, but rather about the choice of what to think about.

>That is real freedom. That is being educated, and understanding how to think. The alternative is unconsciousness, the default setting, the rat race, the constant gnawing sense of having had, and lost, some infinite thing.

Full speech: https://www.butwhatfor.com/david-foster-wallace-this-is-wate...

stanrivers··on Texas Grapples with Crushing Power Bills After Freeze
>Wholesale power prices on Texas’ main power grid hit the ceiling price of $9,000 per megawatt hour for parts of five straight days. That was exponentially higher than the average price, which was $21.18 per megawatt hour in 2020, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot, the nonprofit that controls the grid.

>Now power retailers and municipal utilities are trying to figure out how to pass on the billions of dollars in costs to customers, some of whom face bills in the thousands of dollars that may need to be stretched out over time.

stanrivers··on Walmart Promises Raises for 425,000 Workers After Strong Holiday Sales
> The country’s largest private employer said it would raise pay for hourly U.S. workers to an average above $15 an hour, up from an average above $14 in January 2020. Its minimum starting wage for U.S. workers will remain at $11 an hour. Walmart employs about 1.5 million hourly U.S. workers and 2.2 million people world-wide.
stanrivers··on Ban on New Foreign Workers Left U.S. Jobs Unfilled, Even in Covid Downturn
>“A deficit of domestic tech workers to fill available American tech jobs is worsened by the lack of access to foreign talent,” said Peter Leroe-Muñoz, general counsel and senior vice president of tech policy for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, an industry lobbying group. He said about 59% of the area’s workforce is foreign-born, including those holding H1B visas.

>Many jobs in such fields as information technology would have been filled by foreign workers holding H1B visas in the past year, Mr. Nowrasteh said, but instead they remained open or were moved overseas.

Interesting to think about how the US is somehow unable to home-grow talent in important fields like this... these tend to be well paying jobs but Americans, for some reason, can't fill them.

stanrivers··on Tell HN: There should be a retract option
I tend to agree with this, we all make mistakes... on the flip side, I see that if you can't delete your comments / posts, then you also have to really think about it before posting / commenting. Maybe helps keep things higher quality?
stanrivers··on Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape
Upvote this one people, the world deserves to know and the traffic HN brings is meaningful.
stanrivers··on Joseph Brodsky: Speech at the Stadium
"Do I know something about life that could be of help or consequence to you, and if I do, is there a way to pass this information on to you?

The answer to the first question is, I suppose, yes — not so much because a person of my age is entitled to out-fox any of you at existential chess as because he is, in all probability, tired of quite a lot of the stuff you are still aspiring to. (This fatigue alone is something the young should be advised on as an attendant feature of both their eventual success and their failure; this sort of knowledge may enhance their savoring of the former as well as a better weathering of the latter.) As for the second question, I truly wonder."

It is an interesting thought - can we actually learn general principles about life from those that have gone before us? I get that we can learn skills and build on their skills... but how much of life has to be lived to be learned?

The fatigue comment also is somewhat refreshing and somewhat depressing... I'm at most half the age of Brodsky when he is saying this, but is it inevitable that the game/race of life will eventually be tedious? Eventually be something that I no longer want to "compete" in?

stanrivers··on China wants to build an open source ecosystem to rival GitHub
And then you have to question why a foreign country would allow the new solution and not GitHub... it seems like it might be used by people used to a certain set of restrictions on them online, while others used to more liberal information flows would not.
stanrivers··on The Missing Piece Meets the Big O – “Have you ever tried?” asked the Big O
“By myself? A missing piece cannot roll by itself.” ”Have you ever tried?” asked the Big O. “But I have sharp corners,” said the missing piece. “I am not shaped for rolling.” “Corners wear off,” said the Big O, “and shapes change. Anyhow, I must say good-bye. Perhaps we will meet again…”

Often times we forget that the first step in getting what we want is making steps and effort to move toward it. I think you can read this like - "No one can love you until you love yourself" because of the missing pieces attempts to find a partner.

The other read is that you can trick yourself into thinking you are making progress by focusing on all these other things around you and looking for someone / something outside of yourself to make the progress for you. But, at the end of the day, you have to make the progress for you.

stanrivers··on Ask HN: Why does it seem like Rust is always on the front page?
This is super helpful and I appreciate you writing it all out. Finance guy here, who invests in the VC space, so like to at least understand some of what is going on!
stanrivers··on The CIA Rebrands with a New Website
Do you think it’s basically a pay gap and career track gap? Or more systemic than that for young people not being interested?
stanrivers··on Quitting a New Job
I agree with this. However, I will say unless there is something major wrong with you or major at the company, you are now going to be fired very quickly. The company also doesn’t want that reputation.

I work in finance and certain hedge funds have a reputation for cutting people quickly they don’t like. It attracts people that are ok with that and most stay away.

That all said - you got to look out for you and your family and friends, so you got to do it sometimes. Just wanted to say that, most of the times, the feeling of a commitment to each other goes both ways during the honeymoon period between company and person.

stanrivers··on The CIA Rebrands with a New Website
Oddly and timely, the Scorpions just posted on Twitter about Winds of Change - seems like they are Reaaly Really good if it was the CIA ha

https://twitter.com/scorpions/status/1346121593915912206?s=2...

stanrivers··on You’re Never Too Old to Become a Beginner
Reminds me of Cicero - On Old Age

> For when Caecilius speaks of ” the old fools of the comic stage,” he has in mind old men characterized by credulity, forgetfulness, and carelessness, which are faults, not of old age generally, but only of an old age that is drowsy, slothful, and inert.

> Yet his literary culture must have been of a high order. He learned Greek in his old age, after despising the language and its writers during the whole of his earlier life. He was a friend and patron of the poet Ennius, and brought him to Rome, though manifestly without any generous provision for his subsistence; for Ennius led in Rome as poor and straitened a life as he could have left in Sardinia, where Cato found him.

https://www.butwhatfor.com/on-old-age-with-cicero/

stanrivers··on Amazon raised $10b in the bond markets, including $1b of debt yielding just 0.4%
>Amazon raised $10 billion in corporate debt markets Monday, including a $1 billion bond yielding just 0.4%. >The Financial Times reported that this was the lowest interest rate for any bond in US corporate history.
stanrivers··on Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
For what it is worth, they say there is an 81% probability, based on their analysis, that it was a lab leak. That is not the same thing as "claims COVID-19 originated in a lab" - so I think the title is a little misleading - which is probably why the title actually seems to be "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?"
stanrivers··on [dead]
https://web.archive.org/web/20201224040221/https://www.wsj.c...
stanrivers··on Ask HN: Co-founder wants me to leave but won't entertain a buy out offer
My assumption is that the co-founder would need the investors to vote to fire you? As in, he can't do so himself? So is his threat that he will leave if you don't leave?

If he leaves, can you run it yourself and do you want to do that? My guess is that you would have to bring in someone to do whatever the co-founder was doing.

Your equity ownership is worth something if you have 60k users. You have a subset of them paying something already it sounds like. This is a great thing, if you enjoy it and believe in it. If that is correct, then if your partner has a problem, and you think he is replaceable, then you don't seem to have to do anything related to his demands.

I think this is also a good lesson in needing to have a really good relationship with the investors as well. If it is correct that they are the swing vote on decisions, you want them to appreciate you, know you well and understand the value you add.

stanrivers··on Tiananmen Square images that China does not want you to see
Just saved me big time! Just changed it to be correct... I often drop the negative when typing / writing. Makes no sense to me... I think the negative but just don't write or type it. Have thought about asking a smart psychologist or neurologist about that... I'm afraid they will just say that it is my own incompetence and nothing else :/
stanrivers··on High-Frequency Traders Push Closer to Light Speed with Cutting-Edge Cables
First - super cool new fiber cable.

Second - I'm not sure high frequency trading adds much to the world itself. But, have the algorithms or technology they develop been taken and used elsewhere? Maybe without them, this kind of cable development would not have happened as quickly? Maybe it creates an increase demand for higher-level STEM degrees given the draw of earnings potential (and not all would make it, meaning some STEMs go on to work on actually valuable things for society?). It's interesting to think about.

>Lumenisity, the startup backed by Jump, is betting that hollow-core fiber will find uses beyond trading, for instance in telecommunications and 5G networks. “We see HFT as an early adopter for the use of hollow-core,” Lumenisity Executive Chairman David Parker said in an interview. He declined to comment on his firm’s relationship with Jump.

>Supporters say hollow-core fiber could be used for high-bandwidth links in places like northern New Jersey where the NYSE and Nasdaq have their data centers, or even under the Atlantic, connecting London and New York, if the technology gets good enough.

stanrivers··on Show HN: An anti-book recommendation tool, to help you escape your echo chamber
Well, my very first recommendation was the Bible.

So, I guess I've got that going for me.

stanrivers··on David Foster Wallace: This Is Water
> In the speech, Wallace digs into higher education and what the true value of it might be. He suggests that its end-game purpose is not to teach students facts and figures or fill their heads with knowledge – but instead, it brings the most value to students by teaching them how to consciously choose how to think from a perspective that is not your own, think about meaning, and act appropriately in everyday life.

The more time I spend alive, the more I relate to the idea that the best thing you can do for yourself is have a good, optimistic mindset. Not a naive one. But one that remembers you are not the center of the universe, that others have problems too (some bigger than your own) and that we are all just trying to survive with minimal suffering along the way.

When you are stuck in your head, constantly thinking about how all the things in the world are impacting YOU negatively, you just end-up in a feedback loop of negativity and lost perspective.

stanrivers··on How the novel coronavirus has evolved
What does the South Asian fish comment mean?
stanrivers··on Zodiac Killer: Code-breakers solve San Francisco killer's cipher
Very cool how they went through their steps etc in the video on Youtube. Lots of intelligence and hard work on show there.

So part of me is excited / impressed / happy for them. Serious effort and seriously impressive. Especially catching Zodiac's mistake and adjusting for it to completely solve the cipher.

They other part of me hates that someone so terrible has been able to capture the imaginations of people for so long with his terrible games.

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