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shostack

6,040 karma · joined October 1, 2013

I like digital media and have been in the online advertising and analytics space for a long time. If you're interested in reaching out, my email is "michael.myHNusername@gmail.com".
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shostack··on Launch HN: Modern Realty (YC S24) – AI Real Estate Agent for Home Buyers
I don't know a single home buyer who likes that though. You have an opportunity to differentiate by moving away from the obnoxious dynamic that exists today.
shostack··on Why Scrum is stressing you out
What was the opportunity cost of potentially deprioritizing other work?
shostack··on The Expert Mind [pdf] (2006)
I'm not sure how you can link these test results to lack of memorization when so many other factors are likely at play from the worsening parental support many children face with school due to economic decline, to the pittance teachers are paid, to the war on education some states seem to be playing (curiously they are all heavy red states).
shostack··on Yandex Cooperating with FSB to Single Out Dissidents
[flagged]
shostack··on Deals with the devil aren't what they used to be
If you like the structured nature of deals with Other beings and the intersection of that with magic, you might really enjoy the Pact web serial and its sequel Pale by Wildbow.

They contain an exceptionally intricate and well thought through magic system in a modern "hidden world" setting.

My favorite part is how litigious it all is. Power is gained, lost, and traded through deals practitioners make with Other beings, and these are mired in details and exploitation of nuanced language and such. It even features diabolist lawyers!

https://pactwebserial.wordpress.com/

shostack··on Attribution is dying, clicks are dying
This is a topic near and dear to my heart.

First, didn't realize this was Rand Fishkin writing it. He knows his stuff. He also has another linked article in there that is more prescriptive on incrementality measurement being all that matters and how to think about it at a high level and I completely agree it is all the matters.

https://sparktoro.com/blog/how-to-measure-hard-to-measure-ma...

That in turn links to another respected analytics leader, Avinash Kaushik:

https://www.kaushik.net/avinash/marketing-analytics-attribut...

That is also a must read.

The bottom line is what used to work no longer does, and marketers (and finance and leadership) need to get used to having less fidelity and availability than they were used to. It also means marketing teams who are thrashy trying a new low impact tactic every week instead of constructing experiments likely to deliver statistically significant results on incremental lift are going to be spinning their wheels and wasting dollars. And that's something to watch out for.

Unfortunately, setting up proper experiments, controlling for bias, getting clean data, etc. are material challenges that require skills, scale (to get a read on bottom of funnel especially), and resources/budget.

There aren't great options out there for that now if you're a smaller or mid size company that I'm aware of, though if anyone is aware of them I'd love to have them on my radar.

shostack··on Big Tech says AI is booming. Wall Street is starting to see a bubble
Would ants be more applicable, with the Fed setting and changing rates equivalent to the queen putting out different pheromones to increase harvesting of food, expansion, etc with investors being individual ants or the more abstracted flow of capital?
shostack··on In the Beginning Was the Command Line (1999)
It feels like while the marketing of launches may still be like that, it is purely to usher along adoption of the target future state which seems to be doing away with versions and having you simply locked in to forever paying an ever-increasing subscription fee to continue to use your computer in addition to data collection which can be separately monetized.

This is markedly different from how it was in the past when they needed people to get up, go to a store, and buy the disc containing the new version of the OS.

shostack··on CrowdStrike Update: Windows Bluescreen and Boot Loops
There's a lot of comments knocking the due diligence, but the call out of the threat vector and timing of this make it a bit hard to brush off as coincidence.
shostack··on Living in a Lucid Dream
Similar to my experience. I also find my control of my body is still somewhat linked to my real body.

For example, one way of maintaining and strengthening the lucid experience is supposedly spinning around in place with your arms spread. When I do that, I find a dream sensation that feels a bit like my arms trying to move out from under my pillow or caught in the sheets. I then wake up shortly after that.

Other times I'll know I'm lucid and can do some tricks, but still feel a bit limited, whether by the dream or my beliefs of what I think I can do in the dream. I cannot manifest scenery or people. Mostly I can get a small hop glide for flying, sometimes I can shoot a magic projectile. This may be due to limited control and practice.

shostack··on Aphantasia: I can not picture things in my mind
A good way to think about what it is like to be color blind in a world where others see more colors is to consider tetrachromats. From Google:

> "People with tetrachromacy have a fourth cone in their retinas, called a tetrachromat, that allows them to see up to 100 million colors, compared to the average person's 1 million. This extra cone gives them access to new color ranges within the yellow and green spectrum, which can create millions of new color variations. "

I can only imagine how much more vibrant the world looks to them in terms of sunrise and sunset, walking in a forest, etc.

shostack··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
Completely missed that somehow. Thanks!
shostack··on Nobody knows what's going on
With regards to politics, wasn't that found to be a Russian active measures tactic where they'd get low quality or inaccurate comments up voted to the top, down vote actual informative comments, and flood their up voted comments with low quality replies and threads to push the informative stuff so low that users likely will give up scrolling before they see it?
shostack··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
What about using drones to spread and plant seeds? Is that something being done?
shostack··on FTC sues Adobe for hiding fees and inhibiting cancellations
I use Lightroom and Photoshop very irregularly. I now can't access Photoshop 5 that was installed on my Macbook because it doesn't work with the current MacOS. So now not only can I not deauthorize the license to free it up for my Windows machine, I can't actually use it either.
shostack··on FTC sues Adobe for hiding fees and inhibiting cancellations
Which is where they shift focus to lock in and growing the amount of your things that live in their walled cloud garden.
shostack··on Oracle is shutting down its ad business
What sort of measurement setup and process are you running to compare these and properly control your experiments?
shostack··on Cost of self hosting Llama-3 8B-Instruct
How is inference latency for coding use cases on a local 3090 or 4090 compared to say, hitting the GPT-4o API?
shostack··on From Steampunk to Solarpunk (2008)
Two anthologies are:

Sunvault: stories of solarpunk and eco-speculation

Glass and gardens: solarpunk summers

shostack··on Recall: Stealing everything you've ever typed or viewed on your own Windows PC
I think the idea is a good one, I just have zero trust in Microsoft to have my interests in mind so it becomes a question of when, not if, it becomes abused, if not by them then some bad actor.
shostack··on Trump found guilty on all charges related to the hush money case
And Reddit comments are down (on Android at least). Coincidence?
shostack··on &udm=14 – easy access to an AI-free Google search
Is there anything that can get this to replace the results from the default Android search bar?
shostack··on Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
For sure a healthy dose of privilege enabled that. I was surprised to learn my father even owned NVDA shares from even further back for some reason.

The most valuable thing he taught me though was not buying individual shares, but low fee index funds. Ie. the Boglehead approach.

shostack··on Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
I'll do it one better. As a gamer when I was younger, I knew they were the future. I asked for shares for my bday at the time and got them at least at $22.88 a share as that's as far back as my records go.
shostack··on China builds first dedicated drone carrier
When you think about Russia and China and not adhering to international law, you could imagine a total war scenario where they use chemical and biological weapons to do just this. Imagine a drone force deploying over a city at night, dispersing the agents into the air and water. People would never know what hit them.
shostack··on Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira
Why do you say that?
shostack··on Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira
Can you ELI5 this?
shostack··on Discord has been using ML to determine the gender and age of some of its users
This isn't just useful for their own marketing as some may imply. My guess is building out an ad network/platform for 3p advertisers to run ads on it.
shostack··on We've been put in the vibe space
A thousand times this. I distinctly recall going to a Columbia store to get a new basic fleece jacket years ago and all they had were jackets with that stupid breast zipper pocket which I didn't want. It clearly seemed like the new style as anything without it was nowhere to be found on the floor.

I begged the sales person who dug one up in a box in the back room without the pocket.

My guess is slapping an extra pocket on there let them justify increasing the cost and margins because "you're getting more!"

shostack··on Rabbit R1: Barely Reviewable [video]
The problem is with the lack of transparency and expectation setting. If you sell something with lots of hype and then deliver half of it, you've failed.
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