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shalmanese

13,002 karma · joined October 8, 2008

shalmanese@gmail.com

I've done so much startup stuff I'm equally bad at all of it.

I currently work coaching Founders globally from a base in Singapore: https://coaching.figuringshitout.com/

I formerly was a 3x Founder and have worked in Engineering, Design, Product & Growth.

I also have a background in Computer Vision (designed a single camera 3D tracking algorithm), Augmented Reality (Designed a AR prototype for FEMA to manage disaster response workers), Tabletop/Touch Computing (Studied how people's collaborative behaviors change when put under time pressure), HCI (Studied it for 4 years), Interaction Design (ditto) and am well read in Psychology (esp. Social Psych), Economics, & other random trivia.

I also cook... a lot.

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shalmanese··on Charlie Munger: Turning $2M Into $2T
> First, the price of a 6.5 fl. oz. bottle of Coca-Cola was set at 5¢ in the 1880s and remained 5¢ through the 1890s, the 1900s, the 1910s, the 1920s … all the way until the 1950s when the price was finally raised.

No, that's explicitly mentioned in the story:

> And thereafter the real Coca-Cola company did lose half its trademark and did grant perpetual bottling franchises at fixed syrup prices. And some of the bottlers were not very effective and couldn’t easily be changed. And the real Coca-Cola company, with this system, did lose much pricing control that would have improved results, had it been retained.

shalmanese··on Circles do not exist
That's the answer to a different question. I was just pointing out that, in most industrial applications, 0.03% tolerances are rarely seen but in the specific question of circular dimensions, it's a pretty common requirement.

And while it's possible to approximate with higher bezier curves, PDFs are auto generated with software libraries and it's going to be non-trivial to dive into the guts of a library of a library of a library and tweak the logic for generating circles for this one specific type of application.

shalmanese··on Google ad exec: “it is a worse user experience to not have ads on the page”
It's funny to see in this thread simultaneously the sentiment that Google's search results have gotten awful over the years due to widespread gaming of the free channel of delivering results to you and also immense skepticism that any other channel could be better than the free channel.

In general, I've found any query that's blogspammed to death, the ads are actually surprisingly useful. eg: I turn off my adblocker for any query that is "Alternatives to X (dropbox/xero/notion/figma etc.)". Every organic search result is some generic comparison website that is scraping from the same public data but the ads are generally actual product companies. I figure the companies paying their way to the top of ads have their LTV to CAC figured out and are generally going to be the ones with the highest predicted retention for me.

In this case, I have a specific intent to buy and the bid/ask mechanism for ads is much more predictive of my intent than the SEO algorithms of the organic results.

shalmanese··on Circles do not exist
It absolutely matters. The type of fit you get between a shaft and a hole differs on the order of 5 - 10 microns [1]. A micron is 0.01% of a cm so 0.03% can consume a large portion of your tolerance budget.

For example, you can make a shaft that fits in a hole like a spring because it can slide freely but air can't get out and you can shave a few microns off and it will sink into the hole at a controlled rate. This is all easily achievable in a home machine shop on a manual lathe. With Wire EDM, you can achieve even tighter tolerances and it would be perfectly possible to generate a part that could fit but could not spin because of the PDF error.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interference_fit

shalmanese··on The Sight and Sound “Greatest Films of All Time“ poll
> Doesn't look the way people voted is in any way public.

Available here: https://www.bfi.org.uk/sight-and-sound/greatest-films-all-ti...

shalmanese··on Drying Fruits (2003)
> Does anyone have an oven that can maintain such low temps?

They seem quite common for ovens outside of the US but most digital US ovens I've used have a minimum temp of 170F for what I assume is some liability reason.

shalmanese··on Designers say only way to fix Tesla Cybertruck is to start over
Yeah, because your truck isn't uncoated stainless. There's a deep psychological reason why painted steel develops a patina with abuse but we overwhelmingly find dented stainless ugly and unsettling.
shalmanese··on We always end up with waterfall
Waterfall is the default resting state of software development same as how _v3_final_FINAL_newedits_Finalv4_revised.doc is the default resting state of version control. It takes active energy to move away from that state and things inevitably drift back towards it without continued application of discipline.
shalmanese··on The entrance fee to America’s museums keeps rising
No, the labor costs are mostly rising because culturally significant cities in the Anglosphere have seen their housing costs blow up to astronomical levels in the last few years.

Supply is hilariously above demand globally, people in the museum space basically make the calculation of what is the minimum I can talk myself into justifying and not live an actively unpleasant life and that minimum bar has simply skyrocketed vs 10 years ago.

shalmanese··on Building the Future of X
This is all just a lame attempt to DDoS https://elonmusk.today/
shalmanese··on For the love of god, stop microwaving plastic
> But, as the article points out, the impacts of these plastics in real life is completely unknown, and considering that these plastics have literally been in use for the better part of a century, that puts a pretty strict upper limit on how bad they can be. If they were more than trivially harmful, we would know by now.

I think you might be overestimating the degree that science has the power to answer these questions, especially when it can't be tied to some obvious grant funding source.

We can't even be sure of the link between CO2 and cognition. If you look at the studies, the bulk of them are done by the Navy and they're not super applicable to office/school settings. Of the ones remaining, most of them are too underpowered to convincingly demonstrate either way and the meta analysis is all a mess. This should be one of the most gotcha easy questions we can formulate but because nobody directly makes a high ROI from funding it, Scientists scrabble around for funds.

There was the famous, now retracted study that showed that judges were much more lenient on cases after lunch than before, that was taken down on methodological grounds. But notice that it wasn't taken down because it was inconsistent with previous literature on other fields and the impact of lunch on decision making... because there was no previous literature. We all know there's some pretty sizable effect that lunch has on cognition and the workplace is full of tips and heuristics about how to avoid that post lunch slump or what tasks to schedule after lunch. Plenty of anecdata that there's a effect but again, no money to scientifically characterize the effect.

shalmanese··on I Paid Off $194k in Student Loans in Six Years. It Wasn’t Easy
It strikes me reading this piece, how insanely high ROI it would have been for this guy to have hired a really good life coach. He learned so many lessons the hard way way after he was ready to learn them and someone who was capable of transporting those lessons back in time to the point where he was ready to hear them would have generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in excess value.

Unfortunately, there are so many "life coaches" that they drown out the people who could have actually been a good coach to this person.

shalmanese··on Fierce Nerds
Context: This essay was published days after PG went on Twitter extolling what a great guy Antonio Garcia Martinez was [0] and got rightfully roasted for it, especially in light of what Antonio Garcia Martinez has become since that post.

[0] https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1392756490138791937

shalmanese··on Why no Roman industrial revolution?
Dan Carlin is not a professional historian and I've always found this explanation one of those layman, just so stories that is way too pat. I've found, for example, that there are people who know 8 things about China and can confidently tie every single Chinese social phenomena to one of those 8 things. As someone who knows 1000 things about China, many of the explanations are patently against the well accepted consensus (ie: change X didn't happen because China is collective vs the individualized West, it happened because there was a change in tax law in 2017 that altered how accrual accounting worked).

Professional Historians are aware of the 8 things/1000 things divide and are careful to caveat the limits to their knowledge and not get too far over their skis. Professional storytellers have fewer compunctions and can confidently believe and assert things that aren't good history.

shalmanese··on How the Cheesecake Factory defied the restaurant industry’s rules of success
The Cheesecake Factory has 2.5% food waste [0] compared to 4 - 10% in the rest of the industry [1].

[0] https://aviyer2010.com/2012/09/05/the-cheesecake-factory-and... [1] https://www.upkeep.com/learning/how-to-calculate-restaurant-...

shalmanese··on How the Cheesecake Factory defied the restaurant industry’s rules of success
The reason why everyone sleeps on the Cheesecake Factory is very simple. The problem CCF solves is simply never encountered by the upper middle class because entry into this stratum is socially coded by having an adventurous palate where outwardly acting like a picky eater is a mark of shame.

Thus, CCF is viewed as a class shibboleth because the problem CCF solves extremely well is getting together a group of people with lots of picky eaters who are all different kinds of picky eaters but who all still want good food and you have to pick a place you can all go. You're simply never expected to run into this problem if you run in upper middle class circles but it's a nightmare scenario for everyone else in cities without a CCF and having a CCF in your city solves it in a way that is a meaningful upgrade in your quality of life.

As a result, people vastly underestimate the difficulty of this problem and how poor CCF's competitors are compared to it and how much brand loyalty people who don't have this social coding have towards this company for perfectly logical reasons.

CCF's great accomplishment is not just realizing this but then designing their entire restaurant from the ground up to totally holistically solve this very hard problem and their near monopoly level profits are a reward for their hard work.

shalmanese··on How the Cheesecake Factory defied the restaurant industry’s rules of success
Mine Safety Disclosures is one of the most slept on blogs! Everything they write is a banger!
shalmanese··on How the Cheesecake Factory defied the restaurant industry’s rules of success
https://www.fsrmagazine.com/slideshows/26-casual-chains-earn...

If you ignore the tiny chain at #1, look at the gap between CCF and their #2 competitor in sales per location. I think at some point I read that CCF was second only to Apple Store in revenue per square foot (I think in prime real estate corridors, excluding luxury or some similar criteria, it was a while ago).

Edit: first watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myRFzVmH1tg . Best way to analogize it is that CCF is the Katie Ledecky of casual chain restaurants. Because people who write about business and tech don’t really go to casual chain restaurants, nobody appreciates their accomplishments like they do Costco or In-n-Out.

shalmanese··on How the Cheesecake Factory defied the restaurant industry’s rules of success
Cheesecake Factory, similar to Costco, is the ultimate example of how you have to know the rules to break the rules. The entire company is fascinating because they holistically designed an entire system where every single part of it works in concert to deliver their unique experience.

Nobody can really copy them because you can’t do it unless you start from a truly ground up perspective. Others who seem superficially similar on the surface simply can’t deliver a comparable experience because of this.

Is there any good public writing going into detail about this? Lots has been written on how Costco is Costco but all my info on CCF has been from geeking out with insiders who are also passionate about system design.

shalmanese··on Why even let users set their own passwords?
Because you might not have unrestricted rights to the files. The Netflix app allows me to download movies to watch offline but they're DRMed and rented to me by Netflix, not owned by me. A Netflix PWA would not allow for such feature.
shalmanese··on Why even let users set their own passwords?
Usernames and passwords are effectively obsolete in China.

It's a combo of:

* All accounts need to be tied to an identity, generally in the form of a Mainland Chinese phone number which is linked in the backend to a Government ID/Foreign Passport

* Mobile first development where mobile is assumed to be the primary or only way to interact with most services.

* Overwhelming dominance of two 3rd party identity providers (WeChat and Alipay)

* WeChat mini-apps taking over most of the small use cases where authentication is baked in.

The usual flow is that you sign up with a phone number as your username and authenticate with SMS 2FA. Because it's a mobile app, it doesn't have to deal with web bullshit and actually remembers you across sessions spanning months. To reauthenticate on a different device, you just enter your phone number and use the same SMS 2FA to login.

The web flow for a lot of sites is that they require you to open the logged in mobile app and scan a QR code to login on the web.

A few legacy sites like Taobao still support password login but they're by far not the majority.

shalmanese··on Age of universe at 26.7B years, nearly twice as old as previously believed
There’s a start to the space dimension as well. Imagine a ball 10cm in diameter, it’s possible to imagine a ball that is 9cm smaller than it but not a ball 11cm smaller.
shalmanese··on Advice for finding a technical co-founder (2021)
IMHO, the main value a tech cofounder should bring to an existing idea is the expertise to avoid tech as much as possible. Most ideas are not doing anything revolutionary technically and you can go very far just by cobbling together stuff from off the shelf tools. You need a strong technical vision to avoid the temptation of overbuilding and focus on just enough tech to support your current phase of validation and that’s a unique and valuable skill.

If you have a company that primarily relies on some novel technical accomplishment to be viable, it should be something founded by a technical co-founder IMHO.

shalmanese··on Google search's death by a thousand cuts
Google's death is deeper than just the corpus, their ranking algorithm is also deeply degrading.

A week ago, a search for < James Palmer manchester foreign policy > wouldn't return https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/23/i-love-manchester-but-p... on the first page while < James Palmer manchester site:foreignpolicy.com > would [1] [2]. This appears to be fixed as of today but this kind of kindergarten level search intent not being fulfilled would have been unthinkable for Google even just a few years ago.

[1] https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1670904508191322112

[2] https://twitter.com/shalmanese/status/1670973880637493249

shalmanese··on Why is there a drink called 手打柠檬鸭屎香 = “hand-made lemon duck-feces fragrance”?
“Shit on a shingle” would not be the first choice of anyone unfamiliar with the dish.
shalmanese··on DIY framework laptops are fully assembled machines that get manually taken apart
Linus Sebastian takes a tour of the framework ODM and there's a brief aside about how, because QA is done via fully assembled machines, the DIY laptops start off as fully assembled and then are manually disassembled by a human so you get the feeling of accomplishment of putting the same components back in the case.

Thought it was a funny aside and revealing of the realities of manufacturing not reflecting our mental models very well.

shalmanese··on Living in Airbnbs full time isn’t easy (2021)
I've had maybe half a dozen friends do the part time AirBNB host thing and I've helped a few of them in managing their business.

You have a lot of leverage when booking month long stays, especially in off or shoulder seasons in highly seasonal towns. It's more work but there's a lot you can do to mitigate risk by doing appropriate due diligence.

I'd recommend at least hopping on a video call with the hosts and ask them basic things like how far away they live from the unit, who you should contact if there are issues, etc. It's pretty easy to tell from a 10m phone call who has a hospitality mindset or not. It's also possible to ask them for a video walkthrough of the apartment as it currently exists where you can inspect how close it is to the listed photos.

Especially for new hosts who desperately need credible reviews to increase their rankings, there's a lot they are willing to do for a reasonable guest, including substantial discounts on the list price. They're also desperate for feedback so tend to be fairly responsive to requests for missing things in the kitchen or upgrades to certain appliances as it's a fairly small investment that will payback over a long period of time.

Overall, people have forgotten how to bargain and negotiate as the platforms ostensibly provide a neutral layer that obviates all that but it's a very leaky abstraction and there's still just humans on both sides of the transaction.

shalmanese··on Microsoft has no shame: Bing spit on my ‘Chrome’ search with a fake AI answer
Where in my comment did I mention anything about IT?
shalmanese··on Microsoft has no shame: Bing spit on my ‘Chrome’ search with a fake AI answer
No, the internet heavily biases towards people who are on the spectrum for Oppositional Defiant Disorder because only the top 1% of people who are the most passionate about any topic ever post and ODD biases people into being passionate about things most people don't care about.

Thus, if you read internet comments, you get the impression that some significant fraction of the world has a massive chip on their shoulder and are willing to go to great lengths to defy authority whereas if you ever run analytics for a company, you realize that group of people are almost always a rounding error in terms of impact.

shalmanese··on How to hire a pop star for your private party
People missed that the infamous Fyre Festival concert was meant to be a promotional event for the Fyre App that was built to solve this exact problem.
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