HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

es09

196 karma · joined June 18, 2014

submissionscomments
es09··on San Francisco bans public events holding more than 1,000 people
If you assume a random person has a probability of carrying the virus at 0.001, here's the probability of someone in a crowd of N people being sick -

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+%281-%280.999%29%...

At around the 700 mark, the probability is > 0.5. So if you are in a crowd of 700+ people, someone's likely sick. Of course, you need to have some reasonable estimate of how many are carrying the virus in a given population to do this calculation.

es09··on Investing for Geeks
You are absolutely right on the fees being a problem here. I opened a wealthfront account a couple of years ago and added some money because I really liked the interface and I was sold on tax loss harvesting. I recently wanted to compare how my wealthfront account did compared to the S&P500 and I was surprised to see a 0.98 beta (almost the same monthly returns as S&P500) and an alpha of (-0.15 almost the fees they are charging) with very little r-squared error. Atleast for my risk profile (10), I would have been better off investing directly in S&P500. I didn't get high returns nor did I get reduced volatility with the wealthfront portfolio.
es09··on LinkedIn shares drop 40%, erasing $10B of company's value
Even more likely - hiring comes to a screeching halt. That's what brings the rental market down. There are a lot of new apartments being added to the market and bam, oversupply of rental units if the hiring slows down or stops.
es09··on Indian Women Seeking Jobs Confront Taboos and Threats
Good point. It's the fraction of women that are in the labor force - http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
es09··on Indian Women Seeking Jobs Confront Taboos and Threats
The statistic that stood out for me was the drop in the fraction of labor that are women. This is also true for China in the last couple of decades, admittedly from a much higher level.

Anecdotally, I hear from business people in India that hiring is very tough at all levels and there are simply not enough qualified people available. How does that square with declining participation of women? Perhaps the increased wealth is making all of the labor in the lower rung drop out of bad jobs? Is this statistic reliable to begin with?

This wasn't really a focus of this article but I wish it was.

es09··on Posture Affects Standing, and Not Just the Physical Kind
It's all too easy to ignore the admonition to maintain good posture when you are young. I can speak from experience that our back doesn't forgive that mistake and it's very hard to make it forget.

I wish that article had more practical advice in addition to re-iterating the horrors of bad posture though.

es09··on Apple Gears Up to Challenge Tesla in Electric Cars
This doesn't square with the report that says they are looking at manufacturing processes and materials. I agree with you though that this is the most likely explanation.
es09··on Introducing “6-pack”: the first open hardware modular switch
Good points. I doubt if they are aiming at any competition. Their stated goal is to reduce the cost of the hardware for themselves by standardizing it. Their hope is that the other big guys (amazon, google etc) will pick this solution up driving up adoption and lowering the cost. If this happens, Cisco, Juniper et al gets disrupted and that's just a side effect.
es09··on How an Amish missionary caused 2014's massive measles outbreak
I grew up in India as well and I can second this comment. There is something to be said for seeing first hand the effects of a disease.

Speaking from personal experience, my brother developed a bad reaction to a polio vaccine and developed a mild form of polio that eventually went after a year of struggle. That didn't stop my parents from further vaccinations. It was understood that vaccines have side effects but getting the disease would have been far worse.

I worry we need to see an actual measles death here in the US before people start seeing the actual benefit of vaccines in the cost/benefit calculation.

es09··on Google Fiber is coming to Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville and Raleigh-Durham
In the middle of last year, Google announced that they will also look at other bay area cities like Santa Clara for Fiber. I don't see what happened to that and there is no more mention of Santa Clara in the latest post. Maybe it fell through? The last update I see is from the city claiming that the discussions have ended - http://siliconvalleypower.com/index.aspx?recordid=3191&page=...

I wish I knew the reasons for not picking a city.

es09··on Amazon buys secretive chip maker Annapurna Labs for $350M
I doubt if reducing cost can be the only factor. Broadcom chips are going to be pretty much the lowest cost ones because of their scale. It's more likely that they are dreaming up some network architecture that isn't served well by existing solutions.
es09··on Elon Musk Will Build a Hyperloop Track for Ultra-High Speed Transport Tests
The original hyperloop proposal called for the tube to be in the median between the northgoing and southgoing sections of I-5. That's how the 6B$ estimate conveniently avoided land cost.
es09··on I Owe It All to Community College
The 95$ per semester figure is for the State University at Sacramento - not for the community college. The current fees work out to ~5500$ per semester[1] for the same university.

[1] http://www.calstate.edu/budget/student-fees/fee-rates/sacram...

es09··on The Future of Meat Is Plant-Based Burgers
McDonald's does have a veggie burger on their menu in most parts of Europe. Could it just be a matter of we-give-what-people-want here?
es09··on Immigration is about talent, not costs
Not here to give any names, but I can third this observation. The job description ads are absolutely tailored and never intended to hire anyone local. But there is one good reason why that happens - OPT.

Foreign students graduate out of US schools and join companies here and work legally by enrolling in the OPT program that can last upto 28 months. During this time, the only way the company can hire them full-time is through the H1B program. The whole charade with creating these oddly specific ads and posting them where no one can see them is because there is no other way to continue employing the same people.

The same thing is repeated as part of PERM because the company is supposed to post an ad to hire someone for a job to make sure no one local is available, but that person has already been hired!

es09··on Immigration is about talent, not costs
1. Yes, if both applications fail and OPT expires, the candidate has to go back to the home country.

2. Working for a big company will not help in getting a H1B slot in anyway.

3. Typically, these things are done by a resident starting the company and hiring the cofounder.

es09··on Facebook's New Data Center Is Bad News for Cisco
That could be said of Microsoft in the server business as well, but Linux still managed to gain a big share. It's possible for a RedHat model to develop in networking - sell services and support, but not hardware. See Cumulus for example. (Disclaimer: I work for a Cisco competitor, but not Cumulus).
es09··on A Tale of 2 Countries: The Cost of My Mother’s Cardiac Care in the US and India
The discussion from a week ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8323010

And the week before that

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8304019

es09··on Apple Pay
Anyone else seeing a 'Phishing attack ahead'?

Chrome is complaining that Google Safe browsing detected an ongoing phishing attack.