elfbargpt

30 years and counting of nonstop economic woes for China. Hope they can turn it around!

I saw a story today about a new Chinese cancer drug. It retails for 280 USD in China, and for 8,820 USD in America.

American GDP growing 30x the rate of China's, incredible!

His likes give you a pretty good idea of where he stands:

https://twitter.com/karpathy/likes

To an extent you can. Have you used FanDuel, DraftKings, EspnBets? They've only come about in the last couple years after the sports betting ban was lifted.

I'll be honest, I think they're really fun to use and I've been betting more than I ever have. I never would have gone through the trouble of sports betting before they existed. I don't consider it a problem personally, but I can only imagine the problems these apps might cause a lot of people.

Something to consider: the post announcing his firing is now the 7th most upvoted post on hacker news and climbing. Does Sam Altman really deserve that much attention for his role in OpenAI, and is the fact that it's getting this much attention part of the reason he was kicked?

Zuckerberg started Fb in his dorm and Steve Jobs left his mark on every inch of their flagship products. Altman was positioned to be the next "Jobs / Zuckerberg" but I can't say I know he really deserved it as much as people seem to think. Obviously open to completely changing my mind.

I wonder if this is related: https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1725618106427683149?s=20

When I googled his name I saw the same cached text show up.

EDIT: As a few have pointed out, this looks like text from a tweet he quoted, and it's incorrectly showing as the description under his google search result.

Wow this is beautiful, added to my bookmarks bar. Is there some index of livestream cameras out there? Or did you create one yourself?

This is one of the few comments that doesn't actually mention Elon at all, not sure why you posted this reply here. The comment is specifically criticizing slow bureaucracy in the US, somewhat independent of anything related to SpaceX / Elon. I think the same comment would apply if it was ULA trying to get a test launch through

It sounds like he hasn't played in a tournament in 5 months, not much more. By no means is there any reason to believe he's "disappeared" in any kind of malicious way

Hmm China's Q3 GDP growth was 1.3 compared to 1.2 for the US. Try taking a look a the past 5 years as well. Something's not adding up here!

Won't this next BTC "halving" basically wipe out any profit margin that still exists for mining BTC? Anyway, 19 million of the total 21 million BTC have been mined already

Politics aside, there is one mechanical aspect about this I find interesting. Basically if you have a majority vote split down party lines, all it takes is a small group (size greater than the difference between majority and minority parties) to wield quite a lot of influence. Gaetz seems like he's calling the shots in this gambit. I guess this has always been true, but interesting to watch it play out.

Maybe I'm out of touch, but my understanding is that US has historically had lots of Chinese talent, but recently these researchers have been moving back to China at a higher rate because of improvements in Chinese academia, and also red tape in the United States. Didn't think there was an increasing brain drain in China, rather the opposite

I wish more people were excited about robotics right now. Hot take, but all current AI products at the moment are pretty much chat bots or image generators. Which is cool, but I have a hard time thinking that's going to have major impacts on the economy / quality of life. I think there is pretty big potential once we start getting more physical labor and production tasks automated.

I kind of agree with your first part. For a while now, I've considered the possibility that a handheld device like an iPhone is actually pretty close to the ideal way humans actually want to interact with a computer. Even though it seems cool as an idea, I don't think people want their experience with a computer to be too immersive--handheld device might be the sweet spot.

I'm not sure about their marketing claims, but the robot in this video doesn't have wheels and isn't going 80mph on an interstate. Maybe the cars and this robot are using similar sensors, but I doubt there's a ton of overlap between the underlying system and the directions it gives. AGI doesn't exist yet

Honestly the stakes are a lot lower for a humanoid robot IMO. There's a lot of risk around releasing FSD cars on public roads as opposed to testing out robots in a factory / controlled environment.

I'm actually really excited about the current state of robotics, and wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being the most impactful outcome of the most recent AI developments over the next 10-15 years.

I know there's a lot of hate for Elon Musk / Tesla, but at the end of the day he's just the money guy for some really great researchers out there.

As someone who both actually likes Musk and uses Twitter a lot, there's a good chance I'll just naturally stop using it if you need a paid subscription.

Why?

Seeing some (probably very fake) tweets that the unmanned jet landed in Cuba. No reason to believe that's true, but I do wonder whether it would be remotely possible for someone to take the jet over. I imagine it has a lot of proprietary software inside

They look exactly like I would have imagined! Amazing

"The Coming Collaps of China": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China

Published 22 years and 16 trillion dollars of GDP growth ago!

I genuinely don't understand the impulse to underestimate anybody you're in competition with.

I wouldn't say they don't have a clear vision. Given their size / market-share, one of their goals is probably just not to screw up in any major way, which they've succeeded at. I don't plan on getting anything other than an iPhone in the near future, so they must be doing something right.

At the end of the day it's probably just difficult to create new phone related innovations every couple of years.

I think "Propaganda" is something that's difficult to pin down. Clearly when two parties are at odds, each one is going to say the other parties claims are propaganda. Without a doubt, US media spreads propaganda. Russia spreads propaganda. Where does the truth fit in? Usually somewhere in between.

Unless there's some omnipotent, impartial third party to do it, "propaganda" is something that's hard to police.

It’s jarring how much this info feels like “forbidden knowledge” today. I’d be interested in hearing counter arguments, but mearsheimer is an expert, and this seems to line up very cleanly with reality. The fact that difficulties in Ukraine aren’t discussed openly is a shame, and very dangerous for the entire world

What, you think he's wrong because China had a bad economic quarter two years after he posted that? You realize China has had unprecedented growth over the past 15 years, with pundits predicting its collapse the entire time. They have 1.4B people, a very good education system, and a huge head of steam.

China misses GDP targets by 1% for a single quarter, every news outlet reports on it, and in five years everyone is going to wonder how China has gotten to the place it has. That's basically happened repeatedly over the past 15-20 years.

I echo a lot of what the other people in here are saying.

I'm also pretty convinced that AI won't replace software dev any earlier than it will replace the majority of corporate jobs, and at that point everyone has a problem.

Time will tell I suppose

You should also read this book published in 2001, collapse is imminent!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China

I wouldn't be so quick to make that call. It's definitely a serious possibility, but at the end of the day I think it's hard to imagine exactly how people would fill their time and adapt. I think there are a lot of opportunities for challenges / goals outside of the typical profit-based economy.

I actually think that the disadvantages of having few goals would become immediately obvious to almost everybody, and a whole new type of skill / creative / athletic based "economy" might emerge. But with lower stress and lower stakes