A Crisis of Confidence Is Gripping China’s Economy

nytimes.com

6 pointsmikhael4 comments

You should also read this book published in 2001, collapse is imminent!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China

I presume that's sarcasm, since the book said collapse would occur by 2011.

On the other hand, a failed prediction in a book 22 years ago doesn't mean that China is in no trouble today.

Someone wrote a book in the early 1900's that due to changes in the world economy that war was obsolete because there was no economic benefit to it.

Then WWI and WWII happened and people realized the book was stupid. But more modern thoughts are the author was right but culture hadn't caught up to the new reality. Why did the British Empire fail? WWI and WWII sapped it economically and it couldn't industrialize it's colonies and provide governance people would accept.

Suspect Xi and his buddies haven't caught up culturally to the new reality either. And so like political leaders in the 1910's and 1940's are making obvious terrible ham-fisted mistakes. China probably would be fine if they ran it like a more top heavy version of the EU or the US. But they aren't.

Time will tell I suppose

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