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danielvf

9,793 karma · joined December 13, 2013

daniel at leancoder dot com

Long time builder: - Web applications - Embedded firmware - Blockchain applications and security.

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danielvf··on 66% of renters say homeownership is ‘hopeless’
65.8% of Americans live in their own home. That's a higher percentage than the UK, France, or Germany. We aren't talking about there not being homes, it's that the youngest aren't able to. It's also a higher percentage of ownership than the US in 1940,1950,1960,1970, not 1980, but also higher than 1990.

What it isn't higher than is the peaks of home ownerships hit during the low the low interest rate booms before the recessions of the '80s and 2000's.

I don't think the current housing crunch will be forever - we've seen shortages like this several times before in US history. While some cities are fighting new housing furiously, other's aren't. Over time, the population migration to the places that are building will continue as it has over the last decade. Building houses is a boom and bust phenomena, and I've seen nothing to say that it's never coming back.

danielvf··on California’s population declines, again, as state grapples with housing crisis
The full report from the Department of Finance is here:

https://dof.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/352/Forecasting/...

Unsurprisingly, the change is not even. Central agricultural areas are still moving up in population, and large costal cities are down. Los Angeles lost 1% of its population last year.

danielvf··on The “baseline” scene in bladerunner 2049 was written by Ryan Gosling (2022)
Here's the full version of the text as written Ryan Gosling. (7 minutes long, vs 40 seconds in the movie)

Interestingly enough, the original author version doesn't follow the part in the article about each key word appearing in the prompting sentence.

https://old.reddit.com/r/bladerunner/comments/76hea1/full_te...

danielvf··on I got a job as a Waffle House server that pays $2.92 an hour
Looked up a Waffle House job listing in the Deep South. Looks like the answer is yes on health insurance:

Server

Requirements:

· Entry level, no experience required · Must have a positive and friendly attitude · Teens welcome but must be 16 years old +

Benefits:

· Dental insurance · Employee discount · Health insurance · Paid time off · Vision insurance

https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Waffle-House/jobs?jk=a214a1778ba9...

danielvf··on Ask HN: American friends life is falling apart badly. What can I do to help?
I pulled my number off full time Amazon driving, vehicle provided, which is about $20/hr here. Most low skill jobs in my area are around $12-$17 an hour. Eleven or below is there, but rare. We're probably a slightly more happening town than Chattanooga though.

But even so 30K is still a huge difference from having to scrap for food, or make a computer from spare parts. Changed post from $40K to $30K.

danielvf··on Ask HN: American friends life is falling apart badly. What can I do to help?
Chattanooga has a 3.3% unemployment rate. By comparison Berlin, Germany has 9.1%. It's definitely an super hot labor market right now.
danielvf··on Ask HN: American friends life is falling apart badly. What can I do to help?
I live in the southeast US, not Chattanooga, but not too far by US standards. At the moment basic, low skilled jobs are in high demand - almost every restaurant or store has a now hiring sign out, and the wages are 50% to 100% higher than before the pandemic. Similar story with manufacturing / warehousing. Amazon wants drivers, Walmart wants drivers, every grocery store wants drivers. I've never seen anything like it.

It sounds like most of the short-term emergency things could be fixed with a more steady income stream. [ $30K ] a year in a low cost of living area goes a long way compared to being homeless. It makes the car run, gets a Chromebook, plays for a cell phone plan with tethering.

I'm a programmer. I love it. As a teen I did manufacturing for six months, and I hated it. So I certainly understand grabbing a low skill job right doesn't look attractive, but it would stop the financial bleeding, and prevent things from getting out of hand while they find a software dev job.

On the immediate food side, I don't know about Chattanooga, but my town has super tiny food banks all over. There's not one centralized organization, and almost all of them are stocked at any one time. The are mom's on Facebook groups who keep track of them, and restock when low. (Some are as simple as a fridge on the side of a building, or a little library style box on a pole.) Most aren't listed on google. Not sure how to find them outside of asking around. Chattanooga has nine food banks listed on google. Odds are that they aren't all out of stock.

Good luck to both of you.

danielvf··on Human or Not? A Social Turing Game
Lol, for the "human" just doing discord spam.
danielvf··on xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition
I did do my math wrong. 220 gallons of gasoline for 3,000 lbs of timber
danielvf··on xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition
Another way of thinking about this: if you burned 1,600 gallons of gasoline to sequester one 3,000 lb pine tree, you'd be net ahead.

Unless I'm really off on my math.

danielvf··on xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition
Trees are roughly 50% carbon by weight. Each pound of carbon represents 3.67 pounds of cleaned carbon dioxide.

Each pound of lumber represents 1.8 pounds of carbon dioxide our of the air. It looks like both logging trucks and flatbed timber trucks can carry around 24 tons of lumber, which would be 43 tones of carbon dioxide.

Sawmills are efficient, and would make a negligible contribution to total carbon. Transportation would be the biggest carbon cost. At least on the East Cost US there's a lot of timber growing so distances aren't too far. Let's say 200 miles total from logging to sawmill to use. 400 miles round trip. Using average US freight truck emissions that's about 0.07 tons of carbon dioxide released.

So let's round that up a bit and say 43 tons sequestered for for 0.1 tons expended. Seems like a win.

danielvf··on Why do ships use “port” and “starboard” instead of “left” and “right?”
For stage directions there's also "House Left" and "House Right", which are from the perspective of the audience.
danielvf··on The biggest EV battery recycling plant in the US is open for business
Atlanta does have trains, and in fact has the 8th most annual riders of any US city, right behind the Bay Area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MARTA_rail

danielvf··on FTX stored private keys to crypto assets in plaintext, without access controls
I mean FTX had over 300 million dollars moved out of company funds, without company authorization, by parties unknown, and with insufficient monitoring to even know it happened until third parties let them know. So kind of depends on your definition of hacked, I guess.
danielvf··on Wronger Than Wrong
An LLM like ChatGPT ends up with a bunch of probabilities for the next word-ish. A random number generator then picks from them, weighted by probability, and then the process loops. So while the weights are static, the actual execution is very much non-deterministic.
danielvf··on AAD misconfiguration led to Bing.com results manipulation, account takeover
Or for an even more funny take, see https://rekt.news
danielvf··on AAD misconfiguration led to Bing.com results manipulation, account takeover
Most large crypto bounty programs are paid in things that are instantly convertible to dollars (mostly USDC, some DAI/USDT or occasionaly ETH). There are a few out there but in general the dollar numbers are real.
danielvf··on AAD misconfiguration led to Bing.com results manipulation, account takeover
Say what you want to about crypto, the bug bounty payments are enormous:

From the https://immunefi.com/leaderboard/

#1. 4 paid reports: $13,010,000 total earnings

#2. 2 paid reports: $10,020,000 total earnings

#3. 8 paid reports: $8,010,000 total earnings

danielvf··on Universal Speech Model
gmail
danielvf··on After a decade, South Dakota's Amish are moving on
The Farm only lasted 12 years as a commune, before switching over to people earning their own income and paying rent. Still perhaps comparable to the amish though.
danielvf··on CFTC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao [pdf]
A line item under reasons that Binance falls under US jurisdiction. "Binance relies on the Google suite of products for information management and email services."

That's got to make companies around the world feel more comfortable using it!

Oh, and AWS too!

danielvf··on CFTC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao [pdf]
USDT is actually from "Bitfinex", not from "Binance".
danielvf··on CFTC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao [pdf]
> ...“Like come on. They are here for crime.” Binance’s [money laundering reporting officer] agreed that “we see the bad, but we close 2 eyes.”

[Edit: Used to link to the PDF from the CFTC in this comment, removed since hn story now goes to it. Thanks, dang!]

danielvf··on Private opulence, public squalor: How the U.S. helps the rich and hurts the poor
The USD 90% income is 200K USD. That's 300K AUD. The Australian 90% percentile income is 131,000 AUD per tax office stats. [1] That's less than half that of the US 90%. In fact, the threshold to move to a 99% income in Australia is lower than the US 90% income.

And that's even before taxes. Even a high tax US state like California has a lower total tax Australia.

But it's not just income, outside of health care, things are much cheaper in the US too. Sydney is an odd choice for talking about cheap housing. As you said, a median house price of 1 million USD. My local US city of comparable size has a median home price of $375K USD. I spot checked comparable vehicles, and they cost about 33% about more in Australia after currency conversion than in the US. Food, electricity, petrol, all more expensive than the US averages.

Government retirement plans is a similar story. As far as I can tell from [2] the maximum Australian pension payouts for a couple is 41,704 AUD per year. The US equivalent maximum social security would be 74,356 AUD. But Australian pension payments reduce based on your assets. As far as I can tell, having 1.5 million USD (2.2 million AUD) would zero out your pension payments.

[1] https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_1240/t_resize_width%2Cq_...

danielvf··on Private opulence, public squalor: How the U.S. helps the rich and hurts the poor
90% is a a poorly chosen threshold for making America look bad vs other countries. American has a ridiculous number of upper middle class.

The 90% percentile income in America is around $200,000 per year. (Pre-tax). The 90% percentile household wealth in the US is around 1.5 million.

danielvf··on Are you ok?
The advice about going outside is great. It's really good to have repeatable weekly interactions with people too. Your hobbies, or your kids hobbies are easy ways.

But how bad things are online, I've only only heard about, and rarely seen.

I use twitter. Web only, no notifications, timeline view (only people I follow, chronologically). If anyone retweets drama, I block the author. Second time, I unfollow.

My feed is full of awesome smart people in different industries building things that matter. I learn, and I can interact with great people in my industry. It's as good (though different), as ICQ/AIM back in the day or the early days of Facebook.

danielvf··on Generating aerial imagery with your iPhone's Lidar sensor
Link 2 is clearly content marketing.

It's a blog with only one post. Though it claims to be a comparison of tools, it only mentions the name of Dot3D, refers to all other tools by number, so you can't look at them, and is written by someone on the Dot3D team.

danielvf··on Plunge in regional bank stocks triggers spate of trading halts
SVB was literally insolvent though. Not only that, but they couldn't put together a rescue stock sale - it fell through. This was not a bank run caused by panic, but a run caused by an already failed, insolvent institution.
danielvf··on An Update on USDC and Silicon Valley Bank
That's not true, Coinbase has active USDC/USDT, USDC/EUR, and USDC/GBP pairs. I've traded on them overnight. They just disabled the 1-1 conversion with USD.
danielvf··on Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2022 Preliminary Data
This looks roughly like map of "number of days per year it's warm outside". It looks just like this summer temperature map:

https://www.currentresults.com/Images/Maps/usa-state-tempera...

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