xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition
xprize.org
xprize.org
The issues are more often political, economic and systemic than they are not knowing effective ways to further reduce risks and harm. Things like properly managed controlled burns are under-utilized because they are politically controversial. Enacting and enforcing codes mandating land management around private structures are politically unpopular. Out where I live, the local fire rangers just point-blank tell property owners "If you don't clear out all the brush and downed trees within a couple hundred feet of your structures, we're defending your house after the others that meet code" but no politician is willing to tell voters that. Worse, land owners continue to get permits issued to construct permanent dwellings in isolated locations which are extremely difficult to defend. If they want to build there, I say let them but also issue fair warning if they choose to proceed, they are on their own in the event of fire. Volunteer firefighters shouldn't need to risk their lives to defend houses which should never have been built in inaccessible, indefensible locations.
History of wildfire suppression in the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wildfire_suppressio...
Controlled burn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_burn
> A controlled or prescribed burn, also known as hazard reduction burning, [1] backfire, swailing, or a burn-off, [2] is a fire set intentionally for purposes of forest management, fire suppression, farming, prairie restoration or greenhouse gas abatement. A controlled burn may also refer to the intentional burning of slash and fuels through burn piles. [3] Fire is a natural part of both forest and grassland ecology and controlled fire can be a tool for foresters.
Hydrogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogel
Aerogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerogel
Water-based batteries have less fire risk FWIU
"1,000% Difference: Major Storage Capacity in Water-Based Batteries Found" (2023) https://scitechdaily.com/1000-difference-major-storage-capac...
> The metal-free water-based batteries are unique from those that utilize cobalt in their lithium-ion form. The research group’s focus on this type of battery stems from a desire for greater control over the domestic supply chain as cobalt and lithium are commonly sourced from outside the country. Additionally, the batteries’ safer chemistry could prevent fires.
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1572664456210948104 :
>> What about #CO² -based #hydrogels for fire fighting?
>> /? Hydrogel firefighting (2022) https://www.google.com/search?q=hydrogel+firefighting […]
>> IDEA: How to make #hydrogels (and #aerogels) from mostly just {air*, CO², algae, shade, and sunshine,} [on earth, and eventually in space,]?
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1600820322567041024 :
> Problem: #airogel made of CO² is an excellent insulator that's useful for many applications; but it needs structure, so foam+airogel but that requires smelly foam
> Possible solution: Cause structure to form in the airogel.
Backpack shoulder straps on e.g. Jansport backpacks have a geometric rubber mesh that's visible through a plastic window.
## Possible methods of causing structure to form in aerogel
- EM Hz: literally play EM waves (and possibly deliberately inverse convolutions) at the {#airogel,} production process
- Titratation
- Centrifugation
- "Volt grid": apply volts/amps/Hz patterns with a probe array
- Thermal/photonic bath 3d printing
- Pour a lattice-like lens as large as the aerogel sections and allow solar to cause it to slowly congeal to a more structural form in advantageous shapes
- Die-casting, pressure-injection molding
CAES Compressed Air Energy Storage and Gravitational potential energy storage also have less fire risk then Lithium Ion batteries.
FWIU we already have enough abandoned mines in the world to do all of our energy storage needs?
Could CAES tanks filled with air+CO² help suppress wildfire?
Here's a prompt for this one, for the AI:
"Let's think step-by-step: how much depth or volume of empty mines are needed to solve for US energy storage demand with gravitational potential energy storage drones on or off tracks in abandoned mines? Please respond with constants and code as Python SymPy code with a pytest test_main and Hypothesis @given decorator tests"
We also widened the access road on our property to support larger fire trucks and dozers. Obviously, fire-resistant construction materials and techniques are a huge help and not all require extensive retrofitting. There are spark resistant attic air access covers which are easy to install. We needed to re-roof and remodel anyway so we went with fire-resistant roofing and concrete siding. It's also important to have non-cellular local communications because the cell towers often go out first (our community uses 2-meter handsets for emergency comms). Doing those things along with the fact we've cleared all trees and brush out beyond 300 feet and only have metal out-buildings caused our local fire chief to comment that if everyone did what we've done, protecting the whole region would be three times easier. We also have enough generator power (on auto-failover) to pump our own well water to wet down our house and surroundings. With that our house has a really strong probability of surviving with no external help even if our property is directly hit by a major wildfire.
Edit to Add: I forgot to mention another key thing. If you live in a place like this, there's often only a single narrow public road serving your property and others nearby. Make sure you have transportation that'll let you get out cross-country if the road is blocked by either fire or heavy equipment. We have AWD ATVs fueled and always ready to go (plus they are handy around big properties like this). Between us and our neighbors we have a plan to get everyone on our road out without outside help - including a few elderly folk who will need assistance. Firefighters needing to rescue unprepared residents diverts vital resources from fighting the fire and clogs roads - which just makes everything else worse.
When we rebuilt the exterior, I installed a set of sprinklers that ring the house and cover the roof/deck. They are not designed to fight the fire, instead I can activate them before a fire arrives to get things good and wet. This perimeter reduces the available fuels, reduces the heat load on the structure and reduces the risk of ember cast. It was a fun project with an ESP controller to sequence the valves and provide remote control.
Over the last few years, the Alert Wildfire Camera system, now over 700 cameras, has been a valuable resource. [1] Early detection of the fire, before it grows to extreme size has made a big difference. In the North Bay of California last year, this early detection and CalFire having nearby Air Attack resources on standby kept many small fires from becoming large ones in this area.
Another great resource is the Watch Duty app. [2] This is a non-profit, volunteer, but extremely professional service. They started in Northern California and are rapidly expanding. It is the go-to resource for Wildfire related information in the area.
Lastly, if anyone is looking at the X prize for satellite detection, I’d spend some time researching MODIS/VIIRS data products from NASA. [3]. A good starting point in some of the challenges of wildfire detection from space.
[0]. Fire tornado outside my window. https://youtu.be/1tZjWqh3-EU
[1]. https://www.alertwildfire.org/
I searched a bit and couldn't find any smart home integrations that automatically hopefully turn the lawn and garden sprinklers on when a fire alarm goes off.
Are there any good reasons to not have that be a standard default feature if both smoke detectors and sprinklers are connected to a smart home system?
Fire resistance rating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire-resistance_rating
R-value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-value_(insulation)
Here's a prompt to help with selecting sustainable building materials: """Generate a JSON-LD document of data with citations comparing building materials by: R-value, Fire Resistance Rating, typical structural integrity longevity in terms of years, VOCs at year 1 and year 5, and Sustainability factors like watt-hours and carbon and other pollutive outputs to produce, transport, distribute, install, and maintain . Include hempcrete (hemp and lime, which can be made from algae), rammed earth with and without shredded hemp hurds, wood, structural concrete, bamboo, and other emerging sustainable building materials.
Demonstrate loading the JSON data into a Pandas DataFrame and how to sort by multiple columns (with references to the docs for the tools used), and how to load the data into pygwalker."""
Isn't that the whole point of this X Prize, to improve the tools available?
The low tech solutions are typically fuel load reduction, fire breaks, controlled burns, and community education. The first two are standard techniques used by the forestry industry, and they funnel a lot more than $11m into R&D.
That being said, new tech for monitoring and controlling controlled burns would be great.
Biden-Harris cut loose almost $200m for wildfire defense a month ago. California got more than half of it, WA got $25m, and OR got $24m. I'm very interested to see the results.
https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/03/20/biden-h...
It reminded me of the excerpt from the film 'Tending the Wild' about California natives where one argues one needs to learn to 'smell the smoke': https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=42&v=Z-EXQ9be8mE&feature=you...
To me, this is more of a predicament around what our human expectations are and how to appropriately live, especially if populations are desiring to build settlement structures in ways that create wildlife urban interface.
- Bury your power lines. If only PG&E would invest in fire safety… check list of funders in TFA… scratch head.
- Rake your forests. (Or “remove ladder fuels”, as it is now called.)
- Controlled burns.
I’d like my $11M now. Can we spend it on burying lines under an emergency order that bypasses California permitting?
If we prevent them long enough a huge one will happen at the worst time (dry, windy with lots of material to burn. At this point there very little you can do.
In the east cost there is rain regularly, so the usual thing is that wood, leaves rot instead, fires happen rarely.
some craft ong parasites infiltrated it and now it's a huge money maker for them. and they sell the prizes to anyone needing PR. did you just leaked oil near first world waters? let's do a xprize on oil clean up drones ny highschoolers!
the org chart is a bunch of VPs taking home a cool mi a year, with a bunch of sales person underneath (director of charity. director of giving. etc. look at their open positions page at any point in time. they churn these fast too.)
they will not focus on any meaningful result, like you outlined. only on the innovation as a cult PR.
for example, their rain forest one can be solved tomorrow by keeping the US out of couping countries with rainforest, if you were to trust data. but i guess that won't get the vote of a Hollywood actor or a swiss professor who literally have a course on using drones for ecology preservation.
Humans are actually the biggest issue, once again. Prescribed burns are healthy for ecosystems and for the planet itself.
“Track A: Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence
In the Space-Based Wildfire Detection & Intelligence track, teams will have one minute to accurately detect all fires across a landscape larger than entire states or countries, and 10 minutes to precisely characterize and report data with the least false positives to two ground stations.
Track B: Autonomous Wildfire Response
In the Autonomous Wildfire Response track, teams have 10 minutes to autonomously detect and suppress a high-risk fire in a 1,000 km2, environmentally challenging area, leaving any decoy fires untouched.”
I think these would be a fun problems work on. You can reach me at: Fire(AT)cynical.io
I don’t work in this space normally, currently I work as an SRE, but I am motivated. :)
The negatives are supplying things like cheap paper to the post office for marketing departments to across to spam people using US Postal Mail. _Thats_ what needs to be stopped, as it's just a waste.
Each pound of lumber represents 1.8 pounds of carbon dioxide our of the air. It looks like both logging trucks and flatbed timber trucks can carry around 24 tons of lumber, which would be 43 tones of carbon dioxide.
Sawmills are efficient, and would make a negligible contribution to total carbon. Transportation would be the biggest carbon cost. At least on the East Cost US there's a lot of timber growing so distances aren't too far. Let's say 200 miles total from logging to sawmill to use. 400 miles round trip. Using average US freight truck emissions that's about 0.07 tons of carbon dioxide released.
So let's round that up a bit and say 43 tons sequestered for for 0.1 tons expended. Seems like a win.
Unless I'm really off on my math.
Absolutely not. The amount of carbon sequestered is inconsequential relative to the habitat destruction, habitat fragmentation, species going extinct, etc.
also, the rural property owners.
$5M Autonomous Wildfire Response Track
$5M Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence Track
$1M Lockheed Martin Accurate Detection Intelligence Bonus Prize
For example, for low-frost areas of California -- which is about half the state currently (expanding all the time), we developed models for planting bananas and irrigating with recycled water, producing a profitable crop yield and providing a non-flammable barrier at the wildland-urban interface:
https://raghavan.usc.edu/papers/ediblefirebuffers-biorxiv21....
Xprize stuff is of course somewhat self-serving and this requires real investment to address (I am writing about one such effort in another tab) but better awareness and intelligence is not a bad thing. No one is talking about eliminating controlled burns or other measures, in fact as the environment macro factors shift we need more information to make informed decisions about when and how to do those.
It does serve the logging industry sure, but also major national forests and parks that serve many purposes. Fisheries and fishing companies benefit from watershed restoration and species-based protections but we don't think of it that way. Besides logging is not inherently evil, where do you think all those compostable paper products come from? A better timber industry is needed to support renewables and wildfire mitigation is a part of that evolution.
The real problematic fires are currently man-made and entirely purposefully lit, i.e slash and burn agriculture. They are destroying the air and huge amounts of rainforest and jungle in places like Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Brazil, etc.
So while I commend the effort I think the bigger problem at hand is working out how to switch these agriculture systems over to more modern techniques and prevent further destruction of perhaps irreplaceable forests.
Most wildfires are generally in fire-prone areas where fires is a frequent and necessary part of life, detecting it sooner to save lives is good, developing better back-burning techniques to reduce intensity during fire season is also good. Just not as much impact on the world as aforementioned agricultural burning.
Even though we are at the tail end of the burning season in SEA you can still see how massive the problem is from this satelite detector run by NASA: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/
Just travelling opened my eyes to much bigger fire problems is all. The pollution caused by slash and burn is estimated to cause ~11k deaths a year in Thailand alone, I imagine the numbers are much worse in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.
I'm not saying I don't appreciate improvements in detecting and maybe preventing bush fires just trying to raise awareness of a larger more dangerous issue in the world that gets little to no attention because it's outside of Western media sphere.
For example, the 2019-20 bushfire season is cited as 33 direct and 417 indirect deaths. Direct deaths vary mostly with fire detection, response, and evacuation. Indirect deaths vary mostly with fire volume and wind patterns (19-20 killed so many because the weather abnormally pushed pollution into heavily populated areas, and kept it there for an abnormally long time). It seems hard to control fire volume (and really hard to control weather patterns), while it seems easy to control detection, response, and evacuation.
I do take your point that it seems easy to control fire volume specifically for slash-and-burn agriculture in South East Asia, as those are mostly artificially created fires and we could stop them from doing that.
He's tipped into the XPrize as well [2].
[1]https://www.minderoo.org/fire-and-flood-resilience/fire-shie... [2] https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/andrew-forrest-chips...
I hope that's enough to generate some innovation in the area to solve a very large and growing problem.
Would it be similar to that of a white paper? Or an actual demo. Or additional working detection hardware…
Under the past challenges, one mentions re-engineering a covid mask, so the end point is clear.
For this one, it feels much more open ended. Exciting, but I’m also quite curious, if anyone has an idea or examples.
Surely some way to detect and extinguish the beginnings - where these escape notice far from human eyes and noses - has a coding or robotics solution?
We also have hot spot detection from himawari and other satellites.
Also very common to have aircraft do FLIR camera runs over the bush on high danger days.
A few startups/researchers are looking at distributed sensor arrays with microphones and thermometers to detect ignitions earlier. That’s mostly in plantation forestry at this stage.
There’s also some work being done to enable the thermal/linescan flights from drones rather than aircraft. Idea being to bring the cost down and thus coverage up.
Buried utilities, thick brick walls, bunker designs, breaker areas around infrastructure, drone tech to identify and, if possible, cull tumbleweeds, etc.
Who does this serve?
https://www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/finns-mock-trump-on-rakin...
Before the downvotes, please read the article. I have no political affiliation in the US, and this may be one of the only things Trump sorta maybe got right.