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compcoffee

195 karma · joined June 5, 2018

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compcoffee··on Amazon Prime Day deals 'not what they seem'
>Prime Day? More like Same-As-the-Rest-of-the-Time Day. It has always been a highly-hyped disappointment of a store-wide sale, and this is not news to anyone except people who have never before shopped on Amazon's web store.

The headline is misleading insofar as the real story is that the site is completely broken right now, and people (me) are unable to order anything. Kinda dumb for an infrastructure company.

compcoffee··on Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable [video]
>The $35k base model made at scale later this year will be profitable."

We've been hearing about it forever. Let's see it. It's always "coming".

>"Musk is a fraudster/bullshit artist" wave that's hit HN and most online forums recently"

Give me a break. You're "wave" is my, finally, balance. Tesla, or more specifically Musk, has got far more postive press than they deserve. I never see any Nissan, Porsche, Audi, or rarely, GM articles on this site. Meanwhile, every time the Tesla blog/Electrek make a post, it's upvoted here.

compcoffee··on Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable [video]
Good, I hope Tesla can find their space and actually become a feasible company. My "commuter" vehicle is paid off in 2 years, so I hope in 3 or 4 EVs are widespread enough to buy one. I drive about 120km round trip, so an EV makes a lot of sense. Don't let my comment history fool you; I'm pro EV, and even pro Tesla. I simply believe TSLA is overvalued, because they aren't going to rule the world.

That said, there's a big gap between "theoretically" profitable, and GAAP profitable. Tesla's problem won't be the margin on their assembly and parts; it will be the ongoing maintenance and potentially demand for cars that, up to now, are far more expensive than advertised.

compcoffee··on A rescue diver on what it was like to save the Thai boys in the cave
How desperate are you to defend this guy that you repeatedly post the same information which, hilariously, contradicts a rescuer on the ground. So much astroturfing.
compcoffee··on A rescue diver on what it was like to save the Thai boys in the cave
One of the rescuers said it wouldn't have got 50 ft and that Musk had no clue what it was like in the cave. Pure PR, just like a bunch of us said in many threads about his submarine heroics on this site.

Sorry you couldn't see through it.

compcoffee··on Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
>I didn't invest in SolarCity, and don't know the specifics of what made it a bad company.

My evidence is that it had to be bailed out by Tesla, then wound down. They spent vast amounts of money to grow; you know the old selling a dollar for $0.80. Borrowing short, lending long. Most of the time, that doesn't work. Solar power is a commodity, and prices are rapidly falling. I think the onus is on others to prove that it was a good business that couldn't handle short-sellers.

Again, if it was so simple to destroy a company through shorting, why isn't it happening everywhere, all the time?

Furthermore, who is "they"?:

>They are not shorting because they think Tesla will go bankrupt. They are shorting during specific periods when Tesla is most vulnerable, and covering when they fail to achieve their targeted goal. They are shorting to bankrupt Tesla.

I've been short TSLA twice (but net long through ETFs). The first time was early, and I lost money. The second time was in the recent run up after the 5k/week news, when I made a few bucks.

Was I trying to bankrupt Tesla?

compcoffee··on Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
>then with SolarCity a decade later.

SolarCity failed because it was a bad business. Shorts believe the same about Tesla, which may or may not be true. Do you think short-sellers randomly choose companies to sell, or do they look at fundamentals and decide the company isn't viable?

This idea that you can simply short a company until goes out of business is asinine. It's far riskier. The downside of shorting is unlimited. Fairfax still exists.

People like to bring up Chanos and Farifax when talking about Tesla, but they rarely mention he was also early on Enron.

compcoffee··on Thailand cave rescue: all 12 boys and coach successfully rescued
Is that the official Thai government, or some random person on Twitter? Just wondering.

Have you looked at Tweets directed at him? People ask him for all kinds of things.

compcoffee··on Thailand cave rescue: all 12 boys and coach successfully rescued
>yes that's the thing you're just a neckbeard who cares shit about others and feels smug about pointing fingers on the internet

Not a hint of irony, huh?

There it is, the crazy Musk fans going full out ad-hominem, just like they did on the BI journalist. Careful OP, these people are nuts.

compcoffee··on Musk’s mini-submarine ‘not practical’ for Thailand cave rescue, say authorities
But Hacker News said it wasn't PR,and that Elon was going to rescue the kids and we'd all eat our words!

2 articles about the useless submarine made the front page. Zero about the uselessness of it,and zero about his disgusting behaviour towards a journalist the day before this stunt started. As planned.

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>You mean, financing a vision?

Do you say that because his wealth is tied up in the companies? Yeah, and Zuckerberg "finances" Facebook, and Larry Ellison "finances" Oracle, and Larry and Sergy "finance" Google...

Tesla has sold vast amounts of equity and debt. That's how the company is financed.

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>If they bring him in and he saves these people, I would hope you eat your words.

And if more journalists get murdered, I hope you eat yours.

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>Major decisions are communicated by CEOs, Presidents, etc on twitter first, welcome to the 21st century.

Can you name anyone who uses Twitter this way besides Donald Trump and Elon Musk?

Because, although I am not a lawyer, there are legal ramifications to disseminating information on social media. For example:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/23/donald-trump-can...

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>His skin seems thicker than yours at least, so I'm not sure you should be the one to judge...

Elon Musk has public events that demonstrate his thin-skin (unlike the poster you refer to). Like when he wrote journalists angrily because they didn't mention him as a co-founder of Tesla, even though, you know, he didn't co-found it?

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>Only recently I learned that he graduated in physics (energy storage or something not far)

He has an undergraduate degree in Physics. There is no focus on "energy storage".

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>he definitely seems to have achieved much more in his life (I mean, last 15 years) in engineering than most other marketers, promotoers, or, well, engineers.

In what sense? Because the companies he runs do great engineering? Was Steve Ballmer a great engineer because Microsoft built great things? What about Steve Jobs?

Elon Musk is great at a crucial skill for CEOs: selling a vision.

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>Cynics will say this is a PR move, but I don't think that's how Musk operates.

You can't be serious...

Musk's #1 trait, for better or worse, is promotion. Or do you really think he's the guy doing the engineering on all this stuff?

compcoffee··on Elon Musk offers to help Thai cave rescue
>not to mention insanely good PR for Tesla.

Yeah, good PR as a deflection of his Donald Trump routine the past couple days of attacking journalists who have criticized Tesla on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1014964102672801792

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1014923546210938880

https://twitter.com/lopezlinette/status/1014983757252780033

Business Insider has formally denied these allegations, but what does it matter in this day age of social media? The author is getting attacked by Tesla fans, death threats, misogynistic comments. It's off the rails. I don't know how people root for this guy, but here we are.

compcoffee··on Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
Software Skills

I'll grant you they could have an edge here, but would listen to arguments the other way. Plenty of talented software people out there, and Tesla has no monopoly

Semi-Truck Project

They were not the first, and are behind other companies right now. No capital to manufacture it.

Supercharger network

You're right, it's like owning the gas stations. And gas station owners will do the same. Installing chargers isn't hard. Very shallow moat.

Expertise in batteries/packs/Gigafactory

Most of which is Panasonic, but they do have some high tech pack management systems. Probably an advantage at this point.

Ancillary battery products, Powerwall and Powerpack.

Low margin, competitive space.

Solar Roof

Solar City bail out is complete and the company is being written off internally. Does the Solar Roof even exist? Last I heard it was still "in testing".

At the end of the day Tesla makes cars. Good, innovative, expensive cars. It's also a low margin, competitive space where companies operate at sometimes single-digit multiples of earnings.

compcoffee··on Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
>My guess would be hedge funds shorting Tesla and then attempting to depress the stock.

Why are the people who are short the evil ones, but the people who are long the stock are never pumping it for selfish reasons?

compcoffee··on Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
>I wonder how much of that is due to the immense pressure they had in Q1 leading to crazy overtime etc to get that 2270 number.

All of it. Anyone following this story knew they would announce 5000 cars produced at the end of the quarter, hell-or-high-water. Do you think they will produce 5000 cars this week?

compcoffee··on Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
>7,000? 10,000? 15,000? It wouldn't be enough to remotely satisfy the demand.

Honest question: where on earth do you get this idea? You actually think there is global demand for ~800,000 vehicles with an ASP of ~$55k USD?

What are you basing this insane demand off of? Tesla won't even report the current backlog numbers. If they were increasing, you don't think they'd be boasting about it?

Where does the unlimited demand come from?

>And when they finally do, in 2-3 years or so, are you going to take a chance on one of the first competitive EVs from VW, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Fiat, Toyota or Mazda or are you just gonna stick with Tesla, which by then comes with even better specs than today?

Wait, you're saying you're not going to trust manufacturers that have been building and servicing millions and millions and millions of cars for, some of them, over 100 years, but instead you will trust Tesla who hasn't even proven they can sustainably build and service the few hundred thousand they've got on the road? Aren't EVs supposed to be simpler than ICEs?

I simply cannot understand this thinking.

compcoffee··on Can Elon Musk and Tesla Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made?
BP just bought a large charging company, while Tesla has suspended their program.

Honestly,how hard do you think it is for a gas station to provide chargers? It isn't rocket science.

compcoffee··on Can Elon Musk and Tesla Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made?
Tesla has been at this for fifteen years. The competition is coming, but it takes time.
compcoffee··on Can Elon Musk and Tesla Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made?
>why everything won't work is depressing

That's funny, because I find the Silicon Valley attitude of "no one knows how to do anything but us" equally depressing.

Tesla is a great example of this hubris.

compcoffee··on Can Elon Musk and Tesla Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made?
>Hope he gets 700 Model 3’s off the line today.

Personally, I don't see the significance of putting all-hands-on-deck to reach an arbitrary production number that they themselves set. Quality is already a question, and I can't see that improving under such circumstances.

compcoffee··on Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates
>I'd prefer to invest most of the money

Is "I don't own a car" the new "I don't own a TV" virtue signalling?

Seriously, you are offering up your opinion on a product you admittedly have no knowledge of,and no interest in owning.

compcoffee··on Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates
Why? Because it has "Russia" in its name?

Seriously,give it a try. Everything has bias,but RT does a better job covering global stories than most American cable networks.

Attacking the source is the weakest form of argument.

compcoffee··on Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates
>are not that stupid

Then why are they producing cars in a tent in then first place? NUMMI was building 6000 cars a week at its peak,and Teslas are supposed to be simpler and the manufacturing process more advanced.

compcoffee··on Take your $85,000 car into service and they destroy it
>It's not about customer service,

You have got to be kidding me.

Tesla is in the wrong, and even if their insurance is going to handle it, there is absolutely no reason for the service centre to absolutely ghost this customer. They are not returning calls or answering email.

They could call and say, "We are sorry this happened, the insurance will handle it, apologies." Simple. This is not a criminal trial.

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