Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
teslamotorsclub.com
teslamotorsclub.com
For those that don't understand, that is called "naked shorting", and that constitutes fraud by NASDAQ and the major investment banks.
In the end, all of the investment banks that he sued, except for two (Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch) settled. The banks that did settle? Ended up getting their junk kicked in when their shorting scheme failed to work, and they lost a lot of money because the suit against them signaled there was no truth to their claims and the Overstock.com price went back up.
I have no reason to believe that is not what is happening to Tesla currently. Given that this example and the example given on the forum post are very similar, and both turned out appropriately, maybe Elon Musk should consider suing the largest firms shorting his company.
Naked shorting is selling stock you have not even borrowed to create a short position. The scenario you describe did not require naked shorting in order to exist.
To keep things simple, imagine a corporation that has 100 outstanding shares on the public market. Bob owns them all. Mark wants to short them, so he borrows all 100 from Bob and sells them to Mary.
At this point, Bob is "owed" stock from Mark, and Mark owes Bob stock. Mary owns all 100 shares of stock. No one shorted anything naked.
Now say that Craig wants to short this company as well. He borrows 100 shares from Mary, and sells them to Sally.
At this point, in addition to the above positions of Bob and Mark, Craig is short 100 shares of stock, which he owes to Mary. Sally owns all 100 shares of stock.
Looking from the perspective of any one person, they are not short more shares than there exist in the company. No one shorted anything naked. And yet, on the macro level, there are 200 short positions, and one person owns the 100 shares of the company.
No one shorted anything naked. And yet, the situation you described arose.
Should the need arise for Craig and Mark to return the stock they borrowed (someone calls in their shorts), they will probably need to pay a lot to convince the people who own the actual stock to sell to them, especially if the owners are aware of the macro situation.
Even though lots of people like Tesla, it's not an injustice for other people (or the same people, I guess?) to short it.
In your scenario there are only 100 shares available! If Craig and Mark get margin called, how are Sally and Bob each going to end up with 100 shares?
There exists a price for which Sally or Bob are willing to sell their shares. If Craig needs to offer $100K per share, Bob or Sally is likely to take it.
During the year, you have to pay $40/day, so you pay the rental company $14,600 to rent the car for the year. At the end of the year, you buy an identical car and return it to the rental company. This is possible because cars are fungible in this example.
If the car's market price goes down to $10,000, then $30,000 profit less $24,600 costs gives $5600 in revenue for the short.
If the car's market price goes down only to $20,000, then $30,000 profit less $34,600 costs gives $4600 in loss for the short.
-----
Naked shorting sounds like gaslighting - putting lots of ads in the paper that advertise this car for $5000, hoping to lower the price...and answering the phone that it's definitely available, even though someone already put a deposit down on it.
Shorting is as natural as going long... It's an important characteristic of any market. But the articles point is that the shorts might be clustered in the hands of some influential hedge fund guys... Who basically wage an information campaign to crush the stock... Whether they're right or wrong.
In that sense, I disagree with the articles premise that Musk should ignore the short sellers. Fight fire with fire... Or a flame thrower. Musk's company is a super speculative one at this stage. So a lot of it runs on gut feelings and perspective. Not actual fundamentals.
What is “speculative” is the aggressive expansion tesla is engaging in. It’s why they need cash and what is making them a target.
Part of the short thesis is that they are hiding warranty repairs in "Services and Other" - underreserving for warranty would make those margins artificially high. They reserve $3000/car - considering that just the 3 people I know with Model S's have all had a drive unit replaced, one had a battery replaced, between them I have lost count of the number of door handle replacements - I think there is something to that.
Even if their per car margins are high, they still have a negative operating margin. If you can't make money selling cars, does it really matter what your automotive gross margin is? I think the focus on those margins is a major misdirect away from the fact that the capital they've been raising has been used for operational costs as well as capex - which implies that they aren't "reinvesting profits in growth" but dependent on cash infusions for survival. And it seems to have worked based on the TMC and Reddit TeslaMotors threads - people think that the gross margins on the cars means they are making money if you ignore their investing in the future, which just isn't true.
Aside: My favorite bull response while sharing this information so far was "source" on my claim they had negative operating profit from someone who was "heavily invested in the stock" -- it's those stripey pages at the beginning of those reports you should be reading as an investor. I try to follow the bull reasoning as much as possible but it's really hard when a lot of it is just based on faith in Elon - I don't really know how to model that.
https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1014812194297573376 "Pay type: Warranty"
https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1017651046376706048 "Pay Type: Goodwill - Service"
I think that a blown pyro fuse within the first couple months of ownership should be a warranty cost.
However, even if these "bad actors" (as the article calls them) do indeed influence the stock price: missing goals by a year, dwindling cash reserves, etc. are valid reasons for concern, but the article only mentions them for context, without addressing them.
And he doesn't label all short sellers as "bad actors", but only those that engage in opinion manipulations at scale.
They are like the people searching for software vulnerabilities motivated by big bounties.
Your short position depresses prices below "value", which means that for example an eco-friendly sovereign fund could move in and buy the shorted stock with a discount, if they believe that it's unfairly targeted.
Price was 50, tycoon shorts it down to 45, sovereign fund starts buying until it's back to 50 (let's say they got average price 48), now price is back to 50, yet tycoon is short and if he wants to exit his buying will push price to 52.
So he literally allowed the sovereign fund to buy the shares cheaper, and he paid the delta.
Of course, now price might go up or down, we don't know who ultimately wins.
You should read about how the Hunt Brothers tried to do a thing like this to silver (artificially depress it's price) and how they got burned really hard because smart people saw through it and got on to the other side of the trade.
'freerobby had a good point, somewhere up the thread. I regret taking part in your inane and patronizing distraction from that.
The fact that it doesn't happen should tell you that it's not such a clever idea as it might naively seem. And I just gave one example of how such a strategy could back-fire, by attracting long term investors who like to buy at discounted prices.
The examples you gave don't fit the model. They are all profitable, they do not constitute an existential threat as Tesla does to big oil, and the relative differences in market cap is nowhere near as big between the parties. It's hard to overstate the proportions here -- the entire $12B of short interest in Tesla represents less than 2% of the Big Oil market cap. And that's without touching Aerospace/foreign governments that might want to starve SpaceX by way of Tesla.
The majority of the article is backed with references and evidence, but there's no escaping of the reality that a lane-keeping cruise control being marketed as autopilot has and will take lives. That's not just some negative sentiments being drummed up, it's reality and human beings that are being harmed or killed.
And all of that is very much on Tesla.
Or they have a history of missing production and profit targets.
Or that you believe that the existing car industry can learn to make electric cars faster than Tesla can learn to scale profitably and consistently.
Or that you believe that Tesla will be unable to maintain its premium pricing once it has luxury competitors who take EVs seriously, because their actual QC is pretty poor.
If you don't believe those things, then Tesla having a greater market cap than GM or Ford makes sense, because Tesla's future cashflows would be greater than GM's or Ford's.
Production deadlines aren't very compelling to me except to the extent that they starve a company of its operating budget. Heck, other car companies routinely show off concept cars that aren't only late but in fact never ship. It's not a big deal though, because those companies aren't betting the farm on those cars, whereas Tesla has needed the Roadster, S, and 3 to be successful to continue operating. That will be less the case on future cars though. So it may have been a reason to short up until now, but not so moving forward.
In the case of Tesla the arguments are different - that it won't make much money because model 3 production is delayed and Porsche and BMW are launching competing products. Time will tell I guess. I haven't seen them do anything outrageous like sending a private investigator to harass Prem Watsa's pastor. Prem sued them for $8bn after that and quite rightly I think. While he lost, it probably gave the shorts second thoughts about those kind of tactics https://www.vccircle.com/prem-watsa-led-fairfax-loses-8-bn-l...
It argues that short sellers want to kill Tesla and they have a chance because Tesla somewhat resembles a financial company.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17522791
and downthread:
SolarCity failed because it was a bad business. Shorts believe the same about Tesla, which may or may not be true. Do you think short-sellers randomly choose companies to sell, or do they look at fundamentals and decide the company isn't viable?
This idea that you can simply short a company until goes out of business is asinine. It's far riskier. The downside of shorting is unlimited. Fairfax still exists.
People like to bring up Chanos and Farifax when talking about Tesla, but they rarely mention he was also early on Enron.
Is there another reason? Could you enlighten me?
My evidence is that it had to be bailed out by Tesla, then wound down. They spent vast amounts of money to grow; you know the old selling a dollar for $0.80. Borrowing short, lending long. Most of the time, that doesn't work. Solar power is a commodity, and prices are rapidly falling. I think the onus is on others to prove that it was a good business that couldn't handle short-sellers.
Again, if it was so simple to destroy a company through shorting, why isn't it happening everywhere, all the time?
Furthermore, who is "they"?:
>They are not shorting because they think Tesla will go bankrupt. They are shorting during specific periods when Tesla is most vulnerable, and covering when they fail to achieve their targeted goal. They are shorting to bankrupt Tesla.
I've been short TSLA twice (but net long through ETFs). The first time was early, and I lost money. The second time was in the recent run up after the 5k/week news, when I made a few bucks.
Was I trying to bankrupt Tesla?
I don't think it's simple - on the contrary if the writer is correct, it seems to require a great degree of organized and concerted effort. It's probably not something that would normally be worth it, but it used to happen in the Chicago futures markets and early NYSE all the time. It's pretty well known now that the rating agencies are not disinterested third parties, and none of this is all that outlandish, really.
>Furthermore, who is "they"?:
the author alleges a group of hedge fund managers led by Jim Chanos, presumably including Stamford Capital's Steve Cohen.
”Incredibly, over the next three years was stories of harassment of Fairfax workers, the CEO Prem Watsa, his wife, even his pastor. While this was happening Fairfax was besieged by accusations of fraud sent to rating agencies, regulators, even Fairfax's own business partners. Nearly all of these troubles could be traced back to Spyro Contogouris, a man hired by Chanos, Loeb, and Sender to "bring down Fairfax". Contogouris’s strategy would be to sink Fairfax by “closing access to the capital markets”—cutting off its access to funding by undermining its reputation. This was old-school Sun Tzu stuff, isolate-and-destroy tactics, “attacking by stratagem”: General Contogouris would cut off his enemy’s supply lines by, among other things, sullying the firm’s standing with ratings agencies and shareholders and others in a group he termed “FoF,” for “Friends of Fairfax.” He wanted to “get them where they eat,” cutting off their credit lines, particularly going after their ratings by agencies like A. M. Best. All this Contogouris promised to Chanos, Loeb, Sender, and others from the start. He pledged to “get the message of what I think is a massive fraud to these long term value holders” by creating a “crisis of confidence” that would frighten investors and “shake them out of the stock.”