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Comment by compcoffee | Hacker News Reader

Good, I hope Tesla can find their space and actually become a feasible company. My "commuter" vehicle is paid off in 2 years, so I hope in 3 or 4 EVs are widespread enough to buy one. I drive about 120km round trip, so an EV makes a lot of sense. Don't let my comment history fool you; I'm pro EV, and even pro Tesla. I simply believe TSLA is overvalued, because they aren't going to rule the world.

That said, there's a big gap between "theoretically" profitable, and GAAP profitable. Tesla's problem won't be the margin on their assembly and parts; it will be the ongoing maintenance and potentially demand for cars that, up to now, are far more expensive than advertised.

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I'm in the same boat. I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy. I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue. What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station.

You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today.

I wish my friend. I'm in Canada. I looked on autotrader.ca. Postal code C0A1Y0. Nissan LEAFs are going for > 30k Edit: Seems I was mistaken, however I would have to drive to Montreal to get it. Worth looking at when the time comes I suppose.

>You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today.

Doesn't meet my requirements, unfortunately.

I need 2nd gen.

Why?

Why on earth do you go by car for 4km?

Rain. Wind. Snow. Freezing temperatures. Hot & humid temperatures. Bad neighborhoods. Heavy briefcase.

All sorts of reasons.

Several years ago in Houston, we (there were several of us) drove across the street to have lunch most days. Over the course of a year, I never walked the route. Line of sight was maybe 500 yards, but a busy freeway was between the restaurant and our office. While you might think I'm crazy, I don't recall ever seeing any other business-dressed people walk under that freeway. you would be soaking wet from the heat & humidity by the time you got to lunch.

Y'all need pedestrian tunnels.

Funny enough, we have them downtown. They've flooded a few times due to the monstrous rains we get here (see hurricane harvey).

I think Minneapolis figured this out the best with a downtown connected by skybridges on the 2nd floor connecting tons (most?) of the buildings).

>Y'all need pedestrian tunnels.

Yeah, and? Most people also find pickup trucks excessive. And yet, they are the most profitable vehicles on the planet. So much so that Tesla wants to make one. There's a whole world outside the urban bubble, for better or worse.

> I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue.

You could just get a long extension cord ;)

First, batteries are the critical path for EVs. That is, cost, adoption, range, power, etc all a function of the quality of the battery.

Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far. Unfortunately we can't know this for sure, because businesses like Munro & Associates charge millions of dollars for this info, but what they and others do reveal points to that. There's no reason to believe that any other manufacturer can make a better EV. Nissan, for example, can charge you less, but also give you less battery.

Unfortunately for everyone involved, batteries as a whole are still expensive, so it'll take time for the industry to spin up and for used models to become available. My personal guess is that in ~5years, Tesla will be able sell you a $25k car with 400km range.

In the meantime, you could look into used Leafs, Volts or i3s, or just wait. For ~4km you also don't need a charging station for those, just a cable.

>Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far.

So you base this on, what, Elon's tweets?

Big tradeoff in batteries...expense, reliability, durability. Where are they?

Where Tesla excels is in the Model 3's skateboard-like, lithium-ion battery pack and related power electronics. "We are shocked by the advanced integration and advanced manufacturing techniques" used in the electronic control center, Chief Executive Sandy Munro told members of the Automotive Press Association on Wednesday. "This is the brilliance of the Tesla Model 3."

"Everything that's below the floor pan is amazing."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/04/25/teslas-b...

A CPO i3 might be just what you’re looking for today, particularly if you live in a CARB state where you get the super-extended battery (and generator, if you get the “back up plan” range extender).

I picked up a 2015 CPO with the Tech Package for the very low end of your price range late last year.

i have a similar commute, i just bought a 2013 leaf for $7k cash. I plug in a regular extension cable to my wall once a week. It's easier to upkeep than a boosted board.

How do you justify commuting in a car with poor crash ratings? Leaf is a small (tiny) car from a relatively low rated manufacturer. I understand that somebody may not be worried about dying in a car accident, but the problem really is being hurt and surviving. Assuming you are an engineer, concussion, brain damage, can't work, can't support family, burden on everyone, financial ruin. The car cost is a minor issue, considering.

Leaf has a 5* safety rating in Europe. And it is not a tiny car.

https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/10939

At 4km, why not ride a bike?

Because, like, it's a death wish? Riding bike in a city environment in US us very very dangerous.

I mean, I know that's the case in a lot of places.

But it's also not the case in a lot of places so I figured I'd see if OP had considered the possibility.

Legit point. In the summer I do on sunny days. I live near Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada where it doesn't make sense/isn't possible in the winter.

I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy.

You can't give a used < 2018 Leaf away. Go buy one of those, or if you must have new, see if you can find a leftover 2017 (the old version before the '18s came out). You could tolerate riding a wooden plank for 4Km, you're not going to notice the niceties of a Tesla anyway.

What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station.

With your commute, you could charge off house mains (110V/220V, depending on country). Especially Europe, where AFAIK a lot use 220V for house mains, meaning faster charge times than the glacial 110V we get in the U. S.

US houses have 220V. Electric dryers and ranges require it. It's divided into two 110V phases in the electric box.

US houses have 220V.

A fact I was made well aware of when I wired the charging station in our garage. But you're not going to use the 110V charger that comes with the car on a dryer outlet. Parent's issue was having to wire a charging station. I'm saying that with a short commute, you can just use the mains charger that's in the trunk. And that's going to use the same socket that your desk lamp uses, not a dryer outlet.

The mains charger comes with adapters for both 115V 15A or 240V 40A.

Must be a more recent thing, then. Our 2011 has 15A and that's it. Do you know if it actually charges at a faster rate on 40A, or is it just a "cheater" to use in a pinch? Because I'd be tempted to seek out a more recent charger if it would actually charge faster.

My 2013 Tesla Model S charges at 240V 40A (or sometimes 35A) with the plug-in adapter. Maybe you're talking about a different car?

Sorry, our wires are crossed. I was referring to the Nissan Leaf. OP said they couldn't afford a Tesla, and they were hoping for a cheaper Leaf, but they still needed a charging station. I was suggesting buying a used Leaf, and using the "emergency" charger that only offers 110V/15A. Apologies for the confusion.

>You could tolerate riding a wooden plank for 4Km

Im Canadian so in the winter my Pomeranian drags me to work. I want the LEAF for the AC :)

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