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EA-3167

5,368 karma · joined April 14, 2023

"For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law."
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EA-3167··on AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom
It's the old Upton Sinclair line, at the end of the day there's so much money on the line and so much pressure to buy in that people just do. People are easily influenced and overwhelmed by their environment, especially when economic and social incentives are strong to do so. We saw it here with the blind worship of Elon Musk many years ago, then Crypto, then NFT's, and now with this. In every case it wasn't as if there was NOTHING there to admire, whatever I feel about Musk personally SpaceX has achieved remarkable things. Admittedly crypto and NFT's are a lot less useful outside of speculation and some really dark use cases. ML really is incredible and it's going to be something that helps humanity cope with the sheer volume of information that's become available.

But that's been conflated with "Actually a $2T Anthropic IPO makes perfect sense because they're going to replace white collar work."

EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
You’re making a lot of wrong assumptions about my argument based on what appears to be an expectation that anything less than a tonal echo of you is a rejection of the concept of providing housing. All of this in an environment that explicitly instructs us to charitably interpret what others are saying.

The internet is full of places to pick a dumb fight and declare your moral superiority, this doesn’t need to be one of those places.

EA-3167··on Nicholas Polson has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 (so far)
It certainly isn’t perfect, especially when it gives a probability below 100%z .
EA-3167··on Nicholas Polson has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 so far
https://www.pangram.com/history/51744f24-1896-4d5c-8bfc-786c...

It isn't even partially human written, it's just an LLM's output.

EA-3167··on AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom
Please don't cover up one insane claim with an even less plausible one.
EA-3167··on AI needs $6T in annual revenue to justify data centre boom
I truly don't think anyone serious believes that, but if they pretend to believe it and preach it aggressively they might make out with an historic payday and stick the rest of us with the bill. People did the same with Crypto, with NFT's, with a bunch of things for as long as the ball is rolling.
EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
All of that is true, and I don't deny any of it. I also don't think it's unreasonable to conclude based on my initial phrasing that I was somehow against housing. I'm not. I'm for housing the homeless *but also we need to do more unless you want their lives to continue to be hell*.

I'm sorry, but the idea that having a place to sleep is enough to save a life is sorely mistaken. A third of chronically homeless people have at least a serious mental health issue and those don't go away. Likewise substance abuse is a hard thing to kick EVEN WITH A HOME. It's doubly so these days when drugs are routinely cut with fentanyl, designer drugs, and worse. A good friend of mine died three years ago very much homed, but almost totally unable to find meaningful, quality, and lasting treatment. In the end after a DECADE clean someone abused her, tricked her, and she was gone three months later.

PUTTING PEOPLE UNDER A ROOF IS NOT ENOUGH.

EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
I linked to multiple sources, why cherry-pick the one you deem the weakest?
EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
https://www.humanrightsresearch.org/post/the-intersection-of...

https://americanaddictioncenters.org/rehab-guide/addiction-s...

https://www.samhsa.gov/communities/homelessness-programs-res...

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44302#_Toc437336722

It’s not exactly a cryptic relationship, and it implies the need for more than just housing, people need serious inpatient care or structures outpatient programs and those are hard to fund. It’s doubly challenging because of how the US mental health system changed in the 1980’s… very much for the worse.

At least you didn’t assume I was arguing against housing.

EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
If you don’t want to respond honestly to my question that’s your right, but at least don’t get on a soapbox over it. This is HN not TikTok. You aren’t impressing anyone by avoiding the question with a deflecting rant.
EA-3167··on The End of a Fair Price: Dynamic Pricing and the Normalization of Gouging
Are you under the mistaken impression that chronic homelessness is caused by lack of housing supply? It’s much more correlated with mental illness and addiction in people who can’t be forced into care, but still desperately need it.
EA-3167··on Does Reddit have an astroturfing problem? What the data suggests
A non-trivial number of the newer accounts that do that are bots, ban-dodgers building karma, people aging accounts for general resale and so on. Even a lot of "human" activity on Reddit isn't in good faith before you even get to the general triviality 99.9999% of it represents.

Plus at this point if you really want to ask what Reddit thinks ask an LLM, it'll tell you in painful detail without exposing you to that place. Just remember to check claims and sources (a good practice for human claims as well as LLM ones).

EA-3167··on California farmers are struggling to sell grapes as demand for wine drops
In the real world telling people to make the hard choice you support (such as abstinence only stances) makes a large majority dismiss you completely. It’s mostly self-serving sort of advice that might apply to individuals, but we already know you can’t enforce it on a society.
EA-3167··on AI and the Revenge of the Non-Techies
> A serious technological transformation is taking place. Denying its existence or impact would be about as useful as insisting the internet was a fad in 1998.

Well yes the internet was here to stay, but if you used that line of thinking to invest heavily in the DotCom sector at that time you were in for a rude awakening.

There’s a major difference between rejecting a technology and rejecting how it’s being packaged and sold.

EA-3167··on Pirating the Pirates
Oh my God… I’d heard it was a disaster, but I really missed the scope!
EA-3167··on AI is eroding the barriers that kept biological weapons rare
Archive link: https://archive.ph/tbKFv

Note that this is an opinion piece by someone who sells a biosecurity product. A respected person in a respected publication, but still.

EA-3167··on Pirating the Pirates
The (believable) rumor is that it was originally scripted as ~5 episodes of the show when management said "We looked at our release schedule and yeah, make it a theatrical release". It's ironic, so much of what's going on now is taking movies (Cape Fear for example) and stretching them in 8-10 episode seasons; it's interesting to see someone try and fail at the opposite maneuver.
EA-3167··on Schools are experimenting with AI with little evidence or policy to guide them
Exactly! Hell the single greatest thing we could do for schools is to pay teachers more and hire more of them. After that better textbooks and resources would be a good step, with physical plant coming last.

“Where do we put the screen to replace the chalkboard, and how much AI do we stick in everything?” Is deep counterproductive.

EA-3167··on Pirating the Pirates
Massively profitable afaik, up until the last of the new trilogy which underperformed (still made ~$300mil box office using standard metrics). Andor I agree was the first Star Wars property I'd call genuinely excellent, after 'The Empire Strikes Back', but obviously that's hugely dictated by my personal taste.

On the other hand there are signs of the brand wearing thin in places, Mandalorian vs. Grogu was a critical and commercial flop (assuming the usual 2x budget for marketing, if it was more for marketing then it might have been significantly worse than just breaking even).

The trend is really clear though, and it's not going in the right direction for Disney. Obviously they have the resources to reverse that, but the question is if they have the vision and the will.

EA-3167··on Pirating the Pirates
It's pretty funny, he took something that was very much a product of its time and beloved in large part for that reasons, and slowly turned it into something even hardcore fans want nothing to do with.

Very little was really lost IMO if you look at those movies with an eye free of nostalgia, but I'm sure many MANY people would disagree with that.

EA-3167··on Sudan has created the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. How did it begin? [video]
Well it's had a lot of external support as these conflicts usually do, but unlike certain other parts of the world horror in Africa seems to engender minimal action, attention, or empathy. I'm sure people could write novels on the topic of why, and I can't imagine there's value in that debate here and now, but the pattern itself is unavoidable.
EA-3167··on Schools are experimenting with AI with little evidence or policy to guide them
The public school system in the US represents hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending annually and that's *always* a target of marketing and political interests. "The kids need this! The kids need that!" Usually translates into, "Time to buy a bunch of stuff from people who are donating to a senator's campaign" and then it trickles down.

Screens everywhere were arguably less about better education and more about selling billions in kit to a captive audience. AI everywhere in schools follows a similar pattern with similar motives.

The lack of a scientific approach to education is driven by these factors, but also the reality that parents aren't open to the concept of double-blind studies (or any other sort of randomized study) involving their precious offspring. The result of course is that they still take those chances, but now uninformed by the scientific method.

EA-3167··on How Pew Research Center is – and is not – using AI in our work
Pangram says 100% human and that’s how it reads to me too.
EA-3167··on Israeli Settlers Can Get Away with Murder [video]
I’m giving credit where it’s due, I’m here because the mods are so good at what they do despite the influx of AI posts and the rest.

You misread what I said.

EA-3167··on Israeli Settlers Can Get Away with Murder [video]
Almost as though there’s a prevailing culture opposed to it and backed up by stringent moderation. Think of it as an immune system, you let it go and then body is overwhelmed.
EA-3167··on Why Are So Many Adults Cutting Off Their Parents?
The article is pretty interesting, it gets into the perspective from a leader in the backlash to the "estrangement movement" and into the backlash to the backlash. There's an honest acknowledgement that some people are abusive and need to be shunned, and at the same time social media, changing trends in therapy, as well as an altered sense of normalcy has driven the trend. There's an open question about whether or not this is really a new trend or just an old one coming to light now that everyone involved is willing and able to air their dirty laundry publicly.

It's a really interesting conversation to have.

EA-3167··on Israeli Settlers Can Get Away with Murder [video]
You can go literally any place online to preach this, why is HN trying to carve out something that isn't the same slop you see everywhere else so objectionable? It's the internet, you aren't the only one with a cause, and once that ball gets rolling nothing is ultimately left in its path except purity tests and fights without any intellectual dimension to them.
EA-3167··on The Mars Delusion
Mars is not a safeguard against Earth going to hell, even in the most extreme Mars fantasies you don't end up with something independent of Earth for an indefinite period of time. We're also more than capable of exploring our Solar System in immense detail without sending people or colonists. Our greatest achievements on Mars have involved rovers, and frankly suggest that as a planet it has little to recommend it.

tl;dr There is no reality in which it's easier or more reliable to "back up the species elsewhere" than it is to act in our interests here. That doesn't imply shutting ourselves off from space, but it means treating it more like the deep ocean where rovers and drones are simply a better fit for such hostile environments. I'm hopeful that will change someday, but anyone who's thinking in terms of decades doesn't understand the scope and depth of the problem.

My recommendation is to read some of the books and articles suggested in this thread before imposing your wishes on reality.

EA-3167··on The Mars Delusion
If you throw yourself off a cliff because only defeatists accept that they can't fly by flapping their arms, you aren't brave taking chances, you're committing suicide.

By the same token "we don't want to be defeated" isn't a good reason to create a planetary exploration timeline driven by false urgency. Mars isn't going anywhere.

EA-3167··on The Mars Delusion
It’s an interesting article, but my advice is to skip the middleman and get a copy of the book discussed, ‘A City On Mars’. It’s entertaining, informative and well researched/cited. It’s also my go-to recommendation for people coming at this from a layperson/enthusiast perspective because the reasons why “colonize Mars anytime soon” is comical and an obvious lie once you dig in are complex. Unfortunately said reasons are multidisciplinary to the extreme so an overview in digestible form can be helpful for people who’ve been emotionally invested in this fantasy.
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