The Mars Delusion
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I would agree that any notion of a large martian settlement (much less a comfortable one that people actually want to live in) on any shorter timeframe is not realistic and that Mars cannot be treated as a "plan B" in the case of climate change making Earth uninhabitable, but total dismissal of the idea (as well as the idea that humans will forever [and potentially should] be permanently Earth-bound) rubs me the wrong way.
Yes, it's an unfathomably difficult and complex project that should not be in any way underestimated. Realistically, it will take many decades at minimum and probably in excess of a century. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be attempted however, and it's not as if any of it will magically get easier in all the time spent not trying. This could wind up being a self-fulfilling prophecy sort of situation if it's allowed to be.
I think you've vastly underestimated the difficulty and the timeline, ironically. It's unrealistic to use the words "decades" or "a century". On the contrary, that's the delusion.
Consider: more than 50 years after putting a few people on the Moon very briefly, we're no closer to a colony on the Moon. And rocket technology won't help at all. Among the problems: the Moon has very little gravity, and we can't handwave like Q, "just change the gravitational constant of the universe."
By the same token "we don't want to be defeated" isn't a good reason to create a planetary exploration timeline driven by false urgency. Mars isn't going anywhere.
And yes, Mars is not going anywhere, but the same cannot so confidently be said about our ability to get there. Our species has been capable of spaceflight for a tiny fraction of our existence and there is plenty of precedent for catastrophic loss of knowledge and capability.
tl;dr There is no reality in which it's easier or more reliable to "back up the species elsewhere" than it is to act in our interests here. That doesn't imply shutting ourselves off from space, but it means treating it more like the deep ocean where rovers and drones are simply a better fit for such hostile environments. I'm hopeful that will change someday, but anyone who's thinking in terms of decades doesn't understand the scope and depth of the problem.
My recommendation is to read some of the books and articles suggested in this thread before imposing your wishes on reality.
> I'm hopeful that will change someday
And part of my point is that these things don't just magically change on their own, but because a lot of smart people are actively working on changing them. Absent those efforts, the status quo remains.
In the case that we don't lose our ability to get into space, cool, development in that field gets a bit of an earlier start. If we knock ourselves back into the Stone Age, well, at least we can say we tried our best in that small window of time. The worst outcome is losing the ability without having even tried.
We have limited resources, and every investment is a tradeoff. We can play with rockets, but how does SpaceX solve the problem of humans living with much less gravity than Earth, for example? It seems to me that this is a vastly greater problem than traveling to another celestial body.
Has anyone ever conceived a child off the Earth, much less given birth or raised one? Don’t talk to me about space colonies until we’ve done that.
As for the problems, we solve them like we always have: one at a time. Additionally, some of these things haven't even yet been studied to the extent necessary to take a crack at solving them. Taking the humans in microgravity problem as an example, we know it's a problem but have done precious little in figuring out things like exactly where the minimum threshold sits for gravity, whether simulated gravity via centrifugal force is adequate, etc.
I do think that SpaceX is jumping the gun a bit. I'd rather take it a touch more slowly and first do things like put a centrifugal space station in orbit to perform studies on. That said, after how crewed spaceflight beyond earth's orbit came to a screeching halt with the end of the Apollo program, it feels like a miracle to be getting anything.
This statement is too hand-wavy, and I doubt that "nobody" bats an eye. Do you have specific examples?
Also, there's no reason why overspending in some areas should be redirected to the space program rather than to vital, underfunded problems on Earth. Again, it's always a tradeoff.
Many things could be funded if that were cleaned up, and even if none of that cash goes towards space it reduces pressure to further cut existing funding toward it which would still be a massive win.
No, because you said, "nobody bats an eye about any of that", which is not even remotely true of military spending.
It's worth noting that the Apollo space program was controversial in its day, simultaneous with prominent civil rights movements, because it was felt that the government was ignoring the economic problems of minorities, for instance, in order to put white guys on the Moon and play golf.
I mean, it must not be taken that seriously because little has been done to change it. Instead, just about everything else gets constantly gets chipped away at to significant fanfare.
And yes I'm aware of the controversy that surrounded the Apollo program and to a large degree empathize, but even at that point in time we probably could've found a way to walk and chew bubblegum if we really wanted it.
I'm probably as skeptical as most about a Martian colony - to my mind it's 100's of years but will almost certainly happen in that time frame. That said the amount that's being spent on it happening today seems about right.
I would also say that the money being spent now is working at engineering problems. Most (All?) of the vital underfunded problems on Earth that you allude to are political problems. I'm not saying money can't solve them but they are way more complicated.
I don't know. Too much, probably. Certainly there's too much land devoted to golf courses. However, "humans should not spend money on leisure activities" would not be a serious proposal. Should we never enjoy life? I suspect that even people who are hungry and homeless also aspire to enjoy leisure activities in addition to having food and shelter.
If we could go to Mars only by abolishing fun then to hell with Mars.
> I'm probably as skeptical as most about a Martian colony - to my mind it's 100's of years but will almost certainly happen in that time frame.
No, you are definitely not as skeptical as most.
Now there exists some evidence about that threshold.
Experiments with mice on the ISS have shown that at least for them a third of the terrestrial gravity is necessary for avoiding severe health problems and two thirds of terrestrial gravity is the threshold necessary for avoiding all health problems.
That means that even the gravity at the surface of Mars is likely to be insufficient for avoiding all health problems.
This does not mean that travel through the Solar System or life on Mars or on the Moon are impossible, but it means that for any of these it is necessary to use rotation to provide artificial gravity for the spaces where humans will spend most of the time.
This will increase costs for spaceships or for surface bases, but technically it is a relatively easy problem to solve in comparison with the efficient recycling of all materials.
Sometimes it make lot of sense not to even try. I mean technically we could save a few lives in northern countries during winter by heating all roads in such a way that there is no ice or snow... Doable maybe... But not worth trying...
We can't yet.
The alternative I seem to see suggested most often is that we should be dedicating more of our resources to maintain the status quo as long as possible, which honestly sounds more insane to me.
Maybe the timeline is much longer out, but we don't have an infinite amount of resources on this rock and if we don't figure out how to get off it before we run out of those resources we may be stuck forever. Accepting that as inevitable feels wrong.
How will Mars be populated? Adam and Eve?
"Packing for Mars" by Mary Roach
Kennedy was describing one of the most fundamental human ambitions; to try to achieve the impossible. Think pieces like this betray their fundamental lack of any ambition whatsoever
We went to the Moon as a bit of Cold War posturing, to plant the American flag and demonstrate superiority over Soviets. After that was accomplished, we lost interest.
You know what's really hard? Solving longstanding social issues. How about we try that instead.
This is an exaggeration.
Nonetheless, it's true, is it not, that government budgets are not unlimited, and economic tradeoffs have to be made? Of course the government can engage in deficit spending, but that raises additional problems, creates another tradeoff.
There are literal beggars in the United States. What are we doing about that problem, and couldn't we do more, spend more? What exactly are you willing to sacrifice, which worthy causes, in order to achieve your very specific exceptional thing?
It's interesting that Kennedy did not choose to cure cancer, for example. That's a hard thing, isn't it? Though I've heard that LLMs may do it any day now.
200 years? 300? Timescales like that are going to create solutions to all the problems they listed. It's why they spend time knocking people suggesting we'll have boots on the moon in 50 years.
The modest stuff being done now - say setting up something equivalent to the various Antarctic bases on the moon seem like a reasonable step today towards something in the future.
That wasn’t my read. They said there is scientific and engineering work to be done before we attempt colonisation. Work done more cheaply in LEO and on the Moon.
One that stood out is the lack of low-gravity trauma medicine. Another was the lack of an in-space toilet. (Since developed!)
That doesn’t mean we can’t do manned missions or even establish a base in the meantime. But it won’t be a colony. It will be a research outpost whose greatest ambition might be to resemble the ones we have in Antarctica.
https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm
https://idlewords.com/2025/02/the_shape_of_a_mars_mission.ht...
““”Twenty years of tinkering with the much simpler systems on the space station have brought them no closer to reliability. And yet to get a crew to Mars, we’d need to get this stuff working like a Swiss watch. Humanity does not need a billion dollar shit dehydrator that can work for three years in zero gravity, but a Mars mission can’t leave Earth without it.“””
and his article l’affair siloxane:
https://mceglowski.substack.com/p/laffaire-siloxane
And Charles Stross’ “The High Frontier Redux” (2007)
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2007/06/the-high...
“”” Mars is ... well, the phrase "tourist resort" springs to mind, and is promptly filed in the same corner as "Gobi desert". As Bruce Sterling has puts it: "I'll believe in people settling Mars at about the same time I see people settling the Gobi Desert. The Gobi Desert is about a thousand times as hospitable as Mars and five hundred times cheaper and easier to reach. Nobody ever writes "Gobi Desert Opera" because, well, it's just kind of plonkingly obvious that there's no good reason to go there and live.””””
I remember reading a while ago if water you drink distilled water and only distilled water long term, it will do you harm. I wonder if the same could apply to water on other planets ? IIRC, it has to do with minerals or something in water here.
This might also be one problem as whole. Whatever food you eat must cover all needs or be supplemented. So there is need to ensure that either sufficiently varied items to fill needs are shipped in or whatever is produced locally covers absolutely all needs.
it's physically impossible with current technology for humans to survive a trip to Mars and live on the surface
space really, really wants to kill life
cosmic rays will kill humans before they even make it to Mars
there is no current technology that shields from cosmic rays
we should appreciate the earth greatly for its atmosphere and magnetosphere that shields us from them
best emulation idea so far is to surround astronauts with several feet of water
but we don't have the lift capacity for that much water weight
the total time on the moon outside the capsule per person maximum was 22 hours
the astronauts kept seeing bursts of light even with their eyes closed
when NASA inspected the helmets there were microscopic groove where some had made it all the way through
cosmic rays are physical particles traveling near the speed of light
the bursts of light were their nerves and other cells being destroyed by the cosmic rays
it was happening to their brains and CNS too
mice exposed to simulated cosmic rays became slow and stupid
You seem to say this as if it’s some sort of enlightened reason to “not”
Instead, I suspect for many, enumerating, quantifying and solving the impossible is precisely the reason we venture into the unknown.
Spaceflight oriented radiation shielding will also improve over time.
On Mars, radiation won't be much of a concern at all, since all living quarters will be underground, either under piled regolith, or deeper underground.
We call moon shots “moon shots” because we landed on the moon and generated incredible generational wealth from the technology in the process.
Had we not, we would call moon shots something else.
https://phys.org/news/2026-07-permanent-magnets-astronauts-s...
not unless there is a leap in shielding technology
and as someone 60, let me explain you have no idea how your shift in desire will become quality of life, less pain and suffering
but we'll actually get technology to improve aging and quality of life in aging way before humans are able to travel to Mars and live there
I mean what's there if you aren't going to survive?
Go live in a desert if you want a living challenge, it's same thing but far less radiation
Longer term habitation will involve Martian agriculture. Microbes have already been developed to transform Martian soil into an arable form.
Back to the radiation question, after some quick research it's clear that as long as the living quarters are shielded (as above), a few hours of exposure a day are very low risk. The average dose rate at the Martian surface is well under 220 micrograys per day, and the levels only very rarely exceed that value. If one were out on the surface for five hours a day, the yearly dose would be less than that allowed for radiation workers in the USA. That level is considered negligible for increased cancers and other health problems.
Given that survival is assured, what's there is a new world, virtually unlimited resources, and unlimited potential.
Hydrogels.
https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Techn...
but it's at least a decade away from practical use
Space exploration nay-sayers really are the lamest people imaginable.
No, it wasn't. For one thing, the moon is a heck of a lot closer than Mars.
> The whole POINT of the space race was inventing the technology to solve those problems.
The point of the space race was to demonstrate technological superiority, especially with regard to missile capabilities, in the Cold War.
Calling people "lame" isn't going to address the realities of space travel, from the destructive effects of radiation on pregnancies to the physical and cognitive decline from living in a non-Earth environment for extended periods of time, effects that have been measured in astronauts who spent time on the ISS. Sending humans to Mars would practically be a death sentence for that subset of the species.
Humans on Mars will live in radiation shielded environments, and people have already endured longer space radiation exposure than received during the trip. At least the astronaut's sleeping habitat will be heavily radiation shielded on board the spacecraft.
Nuclear interplanetary craft will also shorten trip times appreciably within a decade or so.
See my other reply for more details...
Humans have survived in orbit, exposed to full-strength cosmic rays, for much longer than for the trip to Mars. Improved shielding will become practical as nuclear powered spacecraft come into their heyday, which will be sooner than you think. I believe that within ten years, nuclear transporters will be receiving Starships for docking, then making the trip to Mars substantially faster than using Hohmann type orbits.
Once on Mars, life will be mostly underground due to the high background radiation. Most surface activity will be via teleoperated robots, though surface vehicles should have enough shielding to be safe. Short excursions in suits should be fine too, subject to a yearly radiation dose limit.
Life underground can be as luxurious as effectively unlimited energy and resources can provide. Very large underground habitats can eventually be excavated, perhaps with the assistance of nuclear explosions. Large lava caves are also known to exist, and may provide sites for early settlements. Regardless, radiation exposure will absolutely NOT be an issue.
Martian gravity, while fun, may pose physiological issues. It may be necessary to construct large centrifuges providing some higher effective gravity level for some portion of Martian's days. Perhaps sleeping in those conditions will be sufficient, more research is needed for sure. I do think a large orbital hotel with simulated gravity would be a great SpaceX project, both for space tourism and research. It's a shame NASA has dropped the ball on simulated gravity for decades...
At any rate, the future is incredibly bright, and the spirit of human exploration will live on! I'm excited for the first Starship orbital flight in a few minutes!!!
I think it’s important to hold Mars enthusiasts to specific timelines. What will humanity do in a hundred thousand years, or a million years, if it survives that long? Who knows. Humanity hasn’t even had agriculture for that long. The relevant question is, what will humanity do with regards to Mars within the coming decades? Let's be honest: nothing much. Elon Musk had made predictions about the future that have already passed and proven false. How many times will you allow him to kick the can down the road before you stop believing lies? Let’s also stop pretending that launching some rockets now will somehow prepare for the hundred-thousand-year future. The best way to get to that future is to preserve the only currently habitable ecosystem in the solar system, by immediately stopping pollution and global warming on Earth. Sadly, Musk is financially backing politicians who are doing the opposite.
But what’s with the obsession of sending humans?? Robots already do the important space science (at least the data collection parts) and are well adapted to working in space, unlike humans who have to drag a chunk of Earth around with them everywhere. Robots are leaving the solar system, while no human would be interested in such a journey, no matter how interested they are in the data.
Frankly, the people who act as if it’s important to have humans in space, as rather embarrassing.
On the other hand, I’m perfectly supportive of human spaceflight for tourism and recreation. But let’s not pretend that humans should be involved in the important work out there, except from Earth.
Never send a human to do a machine’s job.