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BearOfNH

263 karma · joined April 7, 2007

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BearOfNH··on Electric car maker Aptera in disarray as founders fade away
planned to be affordable

Got any firm numbers? The article managed to avoid conveying any facts along those lines.

BearOfNH··on The U.S. Currency Problem and the Return of the Wooden Nickel
You speak in contradictions. For example, a 1946-1964 Roosevelt dime has a face value of $.10 but a "melt value" of $1.2022 (today) according to http://www.coinflation.com/

The U.S. government may not like it but there is little they can do about someone melting down coinage, especially outside the country. (But don't do it -- silver coins are worth more than their melt value).

Paper money is different, of course.

BearOfNH··on The Five-Minute Rule 20 Years Later
The author was careful to restrict his comments to SLC drives, which have reasonably long lifetimes.

The newer, cheaper MLC technology flash drives have far less useful lifetime, somewhere in the vicinity of 5,000-10,000 erase cycles. These drives just won't cut it for usages defined here, though they will work fine in your cell phone.

See (e.g.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_memory#Write_Endurance

BearOfNH··on Investors view default by U.S. Treasury as more likely than Coca-Cola
New York City defaulted on its debts 25 years ago, despite having a huge tax base and some very desirable assets.

California has been teetering on the edge of default -- not always making payments on time -- despite having the ability to raise taxes. CA also owns vast assets it too can sell off.

Admittedly we'll probably see places like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal default first, but it can happen here too.

BearOfNH··on Paul Volcker: How to Reform Our Financial System
My take: if it's "too big to fail" they need to create a "living will" to direct how to liquidate the company when it does fail. This avoids a sudden, unexpected shock to the system and any resulting dislocations.

In my mind it's debatable that something like that can be done practically, or that a "living will" would really work in practice. I am reminded of the "duck and cover" drills from my youth. Still, something needs to be done.

BearOfNH··on Macmillan Publishing's letter regarding Amazon ban.
I don't see how Macmillan has a long-term future under their current business model. Arguably their best hope is to go into competition with Amazon and sell eBooks directly, at razor-thin margins. Technology is driving their margins down just like everybody else's; the only question is if Macmillan will be around (and lean) in ten years, or just a memory.
BearOfNH··on 6 Features Your E-Commerce System Should Have
Good points, but there are even more basic ones. I've been to sites that don't even have a Search box and could have used one.

Or sometimes the Search box doesn't work well (try entering "allen wrench" to the Search box on WestMarine.com).

BearOfNH··on Trapping a Transcendental (take 2 - sorry)
I don't get why the interval is divided into three pieces. Wouldn't the same reasoning work if the interval were divided into just two pieces and you always select the sub-interval not containing the Nth algebraic number?
BearOfNH··on Tesla Is Going Public
If they choose to locate the factory in high-cost California, I have to wonder what's going on. It makes no business sense unless CA has some outstanding tax benefits for green industries.
BearOfNH··on Indian court orders seizing a startup's machines based solely on allegations
Obviously we don't know all the facts but if it turns out that Just Dial is wrong and Infomedia 18 is innocent, the court will have egg (?curry?) on its face. In which case there should be some harsh downside for Just Dial like, say, reimbursing Infomedia 18 for lost revenue, plus damages.

As a general rule I don't like ex parte hearings for all the obvious reasons. There needs to be a means to limit their use, and a heavy fine for being wrong is about all that comes to mind.

BearOfNH··on The Battle Over Rare Earth Metals
At $205 a pound I don't see how these metals can be so rare.

Nevertheless, I suggest it would be wise for the USA to maintain its own stockpile of REs, much as we have a strategic petroleum reserve. While the dollar can still buy something, go buy a million ounces of Terbium and put it on an empty :-) shelf in Fort Knox. That may drive the price up enough to stimulate domestic production. Even if not, it would provide a cushion against the day China embargoes exports. There's a lag between (say) the time you reopen the California mine and fabricated metals are created; the strategic reserve would be used during that interval.

The point behind stockpiling is not to raise the price. I don't see this as a subsidy any more than I see education funding as a subsidy. The USA is trying to ensure an adequate future supply: metals in the one case and capable workers in another.

This is not to imply there's an equivalence between people and essential materials. The obligation to children today is clearly greater than the obligation to have materials tomorrow. But you really should have both.

BearOfNH··on NFL Games Have 11 Minutes of Action
this explains why football games are so exciting

I agree, and often ponder what play I would call were I a coordinator.

Note this is also the argument political columnist George Will used to enshrine baseball as the "thinking man's sport", where there's no hard limit between plays. But I prefer football precisely because of the time pressure; it's rather like chess without clocks vs. chess with clocks. (Pitcher checks the runner, steps off the rubber, runner retakes base, pitcher steps on the rubber, gets sign from catcher, winds up, checks the runner again, batter steps out, grabs some dirt, rubs bottom of bat, reseats helmet, steps in box, pounds plate with bat, pumps a couple times, pitcher gets sign from catcher ... lather, rinse, repeat. I've had my fill long ago.)

Back when I was a tyke, televised baseball games (with Dizzy Dean and Buddy Blattner, sponsored by Falstaff, Pabst or Hamms beer) usually took about two hours. Now it's three hours for the same amount of action, and the beers are only slightly better.

BearOfNH··on 8 Things That Suck About iPad
No multitasking means there's a whole pile of apps that will get written for Android but not iPad or iPhone. Personalized news aggregators, traffic alerts, proximity detectors and all kinds of things not yet envisioned. A passive "delivery" model as opposed to an active "fetch" model. Then again, when you're tied to AT&T you probably don't want a bunch of data-munching background processes anyway.
BearOfNH··on How geek communication differs from the norm.
It isn't clear from the article but based on the newsgroup name this talk was part of a sci-fi convention. Should we assume that HN readers share language characteristics (and maybe cultural interests) with sci-fi fans?

I would think so, but maybe there's self-selection bias involved.

BearOfNH··on [dead]
My apologies. Fixed.
BearOfNH··on Google Toolbar Tracks Browsing Even After Users Choose "Disable"
How long before we have a plug-in to report random page fetches to the toolbarqueries site? A la FF's Track Me Not.

(Edit: "random" meaning unrelated to the user's page fetches, as opposed to "a random sample of actual pages fetched").

BearOfNH··on Ask HN: Cases where software patents have prevented progress?
There certainly have been cases where alleged software patent violations result in lawsuits. There the lawyers get rich while very senior engineers cool their heels in court or give depositions in places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant.

I don't know how measurable this is but it is patently obvious it is preventing progress.

BearOfNH··on You want more good jobs, spawn more Steve Jobs
Thank you for trying to keep the politics out.

Do we really need more Steve Jobs's? Based on his examples it looks like Friedman is asking for more engineers instead. The USA can of course import more engineers, e.g., statistically India probably has 4 Steve Jobs types but maybe 400,000 engineer types.

On the other hand, there are a lot of unemployed American engineers who can't find work currently so that's not likely the solution either.

Given that YC applications always exceed the funding slots, I suspect what we really have here is a shortage of capital. For Obama, that actually makes the problem easier to solve: increase funding for NSF and (say) NIH, i.e., promote science and health. To fund this I would suggest we take money away from NEA and CPB (arts and public broadcasting) not because I'm Pat Buchanan, but to incentivize students away from those areas into more productive fields, as implied by Obama and Friedman.

BearOfNH··on The Quants: Formula for a Meltdown
In any case, I was expecting more from the WSJ.

Amen to that. The article mentions "The secretive trading operations within banks that use large doses of leverage, or borrowed money, to make huge bets on the market". This is just not true -- and the WSJ should know that. You can generate leverage without borrowing a dime. Options contracts can be highly leveraged yet involve no borrowing. Futures contracts can be highly leveraged with no borrowed money. In both cases the exchanges have put in place elaborate mechanisms to ensure a losing side can pay up, and guarantees the winning side will collect even in case of complete counterparty failure. There is no borrowing here but there's plenty of leverage.

Unfortunately a lot of the bad trades behind the meltdown (AIG derivatives, etc.) were basically private contracts, with no exchange mechanisms in place to mitigate counterparty risk. That's also one reason nobody knew what was really going on.

BearOfNH··on UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters
Science is progressive. If something turns out to be wrong we can fix it next time around.

Good science. But it's kind of difficult to undo mis-spending of taxpayer dollars, not to mention the economic damage caused by policies based on such mistakes.

BearOfNH··on Legal analysis of the personhood granted to corporations
If you are not eligible to vote, you should not have to pay taxes.

I'm with you on reporting donations. Sunlight is still the best disinfectant.

BearOfNH··on Beware Developers: App Removed From App Store At Request of Competition
Because apparently they (Apple) took sides by ejecting one manufacturer. This might even be a conspiracy.

And more generally, because here in America there is little downside risk in filing a lawsuit.

BearOfNH··on Some Musings on Mathematics
0 and the negative numbers turned up very late in our history

I believe it's also true that the ancients distrusted polynomials (e.g., x^3+7x^2+2x+9=0) because who would be silly enough to add a volume to an area to a length, etc.

If they had just done the mathematics without relating the numbers to real world, we might have far more advanced maths today. All the more reason to pursue topics for their own sake.

BearOfNH··on Why I Think the iPhone is Doomed
I think that this is all it really needs to be dominant for the time being.

I agree with that, but things get murky another year out. Apple's well-earned dominance is maybe 50% apps and 50% cool/fashion. A year from now Android will have most of the important apps as well, plus maybe a few fancy ones Apple can't support currently. As for fashion, well, that's fickle and not reliable.

Of course Apple may already be one move ahead, and next year we might be arguing about tablets or E-readers or two-way wrist TVs. Maybe then Apple won't mind competition in the phone space, having once again redefined the "must-have" product.

BearOfNH··on Sphinx: Python Documentation Generator
I think the authors should show an example or two on the main page, instead of hinting how one might go about seeing what things look like. Much as I like Matplotlib's documentation, I don't have the time budget to follow what appear to be obscure directions.
BearOfNH··on A global fiasco brewing in Japan. (Will the US follow?)
One difference is that gold is in limited supply, and cannot be instantly materialized by the State. Its scarcity, beauty and durability make it a natural store of value when the printing presses are running overtime.

Of course the State knows this too. In April 1933, less than one month after taking office, FDR signed an executive order confiscating all the private gold in the country. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again some day.

BearOfNH··on Ubuntu primes music service
I like this idea. Are there similar follow-on plans for video? It looks like 7Digital is currently only music.
BearOfNH··on [dead]
Federal funds are often disbursed to researchers. What is disturbing here is that Economic Stimulus funds were spent on a climate researcher who was already employed. There's no stimulation in this "stimulus".

FTA: "It's shocking that taxpayer money is being used to support a researcher who seemingly showed little regard to the basic tenets of science - a dispassionate search for the truth," said Tom Borelli.

BearOfNH··on Think the Internet Will Replace Cable ? Read this first
Cable is cheaper now because of sunk costs, but cable companies are much too fat to innovate at this point.

I disagree in one respect: cable companies are still highly innovative when it comes to lowering their internal costs. It's not something a customer would notice (well, not if done right) but the technology curve helps them deliver more data bits over the same wire for the same cost, or the same data bits for lower costs.

Not that you'll ever see a dime of it, but some very sharp people are squeezing every drop out of their cash cows.

BearOfNH··on Never Mind the Valley: Here's Boston
"The thing that's amazing is we don't have to worry about attracting people into the Boston community, [...] The challenge is to retain people."

I would say that challenge might exist because unemployed people are desperate enough to take jobs in Boston, only to find the job isn't worth it.

To be fair, I've worked in MA and NH for over 30 years now (yes, you can call me a geezer) and indeed there are a lot of tech companies of varying maturity and markets. But there are a lot of techies here too. I've got a pal with 20+ years experience, good C/C++ coder, does great Eclipse plug-ins, unable to find a job for over a year now. And I've known other guys (C/C++ coders, mostly) who have made (downward) career changes for the same reason: no jobs.

This is kind of a rah-rah article and maybe we can excuse the author because those numbers might be real. But don't infer that companies here are hard up for employees -- like most-everywhere nowadays each advertised job opening invites a thousand applications.

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