Why I Think the iPhone is Doomed | Hacker News Reader

Why I Think the iPhone is Doomed

blog.herlein.com

4 pointsgherlein4 comments

Every time I see a link that claims that the "iPhone is doomed", I click hoping to find a new argument that makes sense. Except, it's always hyperbole, and disregard for the facts. Consider that _despite_ the reasons he's mentioned, it's still selling more, not less. It turns out that consumers do NOT care about multitasking, the app approval system, etc.

I'd really really like to see a new reason.

PS- Besides, once any of these reasons really DO start affecting iPhone sales, imo Apple will recognize this and make changes to the iPhone OS, which will retroactively apply to all the previous models.

I agree, there's not really anything I haven't already seen elsewhere in this argument. Ultimately, the iPhone's target audience isn't computer geeks who care about open platforms and robust architectures. Consumers love it because it's the right combination of useful tool, conversation piece and status symbol. I think that this is all it really needs to be dominant for the time being.

I think that this is all it really needs to be dominant for the time being.

I agree with that, but things get murky another year out. Apple's well-earned dominance is maybe 50% apps and 50% cool/fashion. A year from now Android will have most of the important apps as well, plus maybe a few fancy ones Apple can't support currently. As for fashion, well, that's fickle and not reliable.

Of course Apple may already be one move ahead, and next year we might be arguing about tablets or E-readers or two-way wrist TVs. Maybe then Apple won't mind competition in the phone space, having once again redefined the "must-have" product.

Imo, John Gruber put it best here - http://daringfireball.net/linked/2009/10/28/dalrymple

"You know who thinks the iPhone 3GS stinks? Steve Jobs. No one is working harder on an 'iPhone 3GS killer' than Apple."

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