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worldvoyageur

2,875 karma · joined March 22, 2011

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worldvoyageur··on Spider venom kills varroa mites without harming honeybees
Update: we'd burn and call the inspectors for foul brood, not varroa. Foul brood is a nasty, fatal and highly contagious bacterial infection.
worldvoyageur··on Spider venom kills varroa mites without harming honeybees
I don't really know the bee science, but a) our bees were just the generic European bees and b) the bees on sentinel duty at the hive entrance were pretty good at noticing whatever didn't belong. Varroa mites are very noticeable, especially at the bee scale.

That said, varroa absolutely could overwhelm a colony. Then you had to report it, burn the infected colonies and wait for the inspectors. Not fun.

worldvoyageur··on Spider venom kills varroa mites without harming honeybees
A typical winter day would be a high of -6 Celcius and a low of -20, but there would be cold snaps of -20 or colder. Winterization itself was several things.

1. In late fall we'd make sure each colony had enough honey to fuel them through to spring (a quick lift would tell you). If short, we'd put sugar saturated water in a tray on top of the colony. The bees would move the sugar into the colony and a couple days later we'd take out the bone dry trays. Failing to ensure enough fuel meant certain death for the colony, though for some in the trade the math was that it was cheaper to buy nukes (a colony nucleus of a queen and some workers) in the spring. Our math was that We liked to have strong colonies in the spring to sell nukes.

2. A bee colony is basically a rectangular box sitting on a frame. We had rectangular insulation that stored flat but easily expanded to slide over each colony before the first snow. The colonies would get buried in snow, which was excellent extra insulation.

3. The bees themselves did the work to survive the winter. They'd huddle in a ball, burning honey to generate heat (a bee could heat itself to something like 40 degrees C), fanning their wings to spread the heat. The bees in the centre of the ball would move out to the periphery while those on the periphery would move into the center.

A cold snap that lasted too long was a disaster as the bees would tighten the ball for greater warmth and then run out of honey within the ball. Those colonies would die. In the spring you'd find the tightly clustered ball of bees, dead, surrounded by honey not that far outside the ball.

You needed at least one brief warming period in a cold snap in which the ball of bees would expand, find a new patch on unconsumed honey in the hive and then recontract around the honey.

If we did our work properly in the fall, we'd have 90% or more of our colonies make it to spring, most strong so we could make nukes to replace our losses and sell on the extras.

worldvoyageur··on Spider venom kills varroa mites without harming honeybees
I grew up on a farm on which the apiary and all connected with it was a major part of the farm's output. Honey, beeswax, nukes (a queen and 10K or so worker bees as a starter colony, sold to other apiaries in the spring if they'd had too many winter losses), fertilizing services (drop a couple colonies off at a berry farm after dark, pick the colonies up two weeks later, profit!) and other products.

It's been over ten years since I spent any serious time with bees, but the bees themselves did a great job on the varroa mites. Sentinel bees at the hive entrance would pick the mites off the incoming bees. The problem was if the colony had a solid floor the mites would just climb back onto the next bee that passed nearby. If the solid colony floor was replaced with a mesh, the mites would fall through to the ground below while the bees could still go about their business.

We would still sometimes treat for varroa, but making it easier for the bees to handle varroa how they had evolved to was the first line of defence.

This was Canada, regular Italian bees, hard winter kills of whatever wasn't properly winterized.

worldvoyageur··on What We Can't Measure About AI Yet
A new tool atrophies some skills and creates new skills that did not exist before. It is easier to identify which skills atrophy than the new skills being created as even the language to describe what is new has not yet come into focus.

" What changed was that the cost of preliminary exploration collapsed. I could sketch an argument, identify the first serious objections, test whether they were fatal, and reach a provisional verdict in an afternoon rather than a fortnight. [...] Dropping a question after an afternoon’s work feels nothing like dropping one after three weeks. When the exploration costs are low, the sunk cost attachment disappears, and you find yourself dropping bad questions earlier and more often, which means the questions you keep are better. I explored far more ideas, and my working portfolio became both larger and better curated. [...] The skill that improved most, and the one I would never have thought to look for, was something I can only describe as question-identification – the ability to find problems that are both tractable and important. This is the thing an academic career is substantially built on and which nobody, so far as I know, has ever tried to teach directly. [...] nobody told me that working with LLMs would reorganise my research practice around finding good questions rather than producing answers to the ones I already had. There is a further wrinkle here that I find harder to set aside, which is that the language I have for describing what these tools have done to my thinking is itself partly a product of working with them. "

worldvoyageur··on France pulls last gold held in US for $15B gain
It's the rules of how they must account for the value of the gold they have. Gold is valued at the price paid. Then, it is valued at the price sold. If there is no sale for more than a century, it stays on the books at the price paid. Once a transaction happens, the numbers update. Then, the gain that everyone knows is there is 'realized'. It's like if you mined Bitcoin in the early days. Your gain is only 'realized' when you actually sell it. Until then, it is only theoretical.

Mark-to-market accounting systems are one way to deal with this quirk, but they create their own issues.

worldvoyageur··on France pulls last gold held in US
The US gold would have been on the books at the original purchase price, so something like US$35 from 1910 (when a penny had a purchasing power of 38 cents now). Having deemed it more efficient to sell that gold and buy the same amount to replace it, the new gold is on the books at the 2026 purchase price. As the 2026 money price is far higher than the 1910 price, the value on the books shows a dramatic realized capital gain.

No gain would have shown for the gold that was simply moved, even though in this case the buying and selling was simply a more efficient way of doing the equivalent of moving the gold.

Gold that was simply moved wouldn't show the same gain.

worldvoyageur··on Benchmarking LLM social skills with an elimination game
Diplomacy is a multi-player board game. Successful play tends to involve well timed betrayals.
worldvoyageur··on The Reasoning Token Explosion
From deep in the article:

" Jensen drove the point home by discussing how these innovations have made him the “Chief revenue destroyer”. He further illustrated this by highlighting that Blackwell had an up to 68x performance gain over Hopper, resulting in an 87% decline in costs. Rubin is slated to drive even more performance gains – 900x that of Hopper, for a 99.97% reduction in cost.

Clearly, Nvidia is pursuing a relentless pace of improvement – as Jensen puts it: “When Blackwells start shipping in volume, you couldn’t even give Hoppers away” "

worldvoyageur··on Can a Geothermal Startup Vaporize Rock to Drill the Deepest Holes?
Eavor is a Canadian geothermal company that does closed loop systems with diamond drills and insulated drill pipe. https://www.eavor.com/technology/

Closed loop and insulated pipe allows a geothermal project to be drilled into hot rock, which is pretty much everywhere, even if there is no water.

They have a demonstration project in Alberta, a 'commercial' project in Geretsried, Germany (4500 meters, 64MW thermal, 8.2MW electric) and a deep demonstration project in New Mexico (5500 meters, no news since early 2023).

From the company website, it looks like the projects work though Eavor doesn't give any data on their projects that would help calculate the economics. The heavy presence of government in their media suggests that, at least for now, significant government involvement is required to get projects built.

worldvoyageur··on TheMoment researchers learned that tigers hunt bears
Ecologist and The Wild podcast host Chris Morgan recounts the moment Chinese researchers discovered Siberian tigers hunt and eat bears, offering new insight into the dynamics between these two apex predators.
worldvoyageur··on Meta Wants More AI Bots on Facebook and Instagram
It makes sense to me. Meta knows who their real users are and what their real users want to consume. They know who their real advertisers are and what they are willing to pay to reach their real users.

This means they know what their real users would like to consume but can't, because that content isn't being created.

Why wait and hope that content your real users want to consume gets created? Have AI create that content. Now you have more product for your advertisers to pay for, plus it is the juicy, premium rate stuff you know they'd want to buy.

With all your data, it practically automates itself.

I'm not saying all this is good, just that it totally makes sense if you are in the business of making money and see yourself as doing that by giving both your users and your advertisers what they want.

worldvoyageur··on The First 50M Prime Numbers (1975) [pdf]
Of note that even then, for the seemingly impossibly large prime numbers, they gave dual credit to the researcher and the computer used. So, credit for the largest prime in 1963 went to Gillies and ILIAC 2. When that record was broken in 1972, credit went to Tuckerman and IBM 360.
worldvoyageur··on Nvidia's Unique History and Culture
" At a company meeting, he famously said, “We’re always 30 days away from going out of business.” This time it was true. He told employees, “Intel is out to get us. They’re out to kill us, and we have to acknowledge that and fight back. We have to kill Intel.” "
worldvoyageur··on Orcas start wearing dead salmon hats again after ditching the trend for 37 years
Needs an actual photo of a salmon hat:

https://assets.iflscience.com/assets/articleNo/76971/aImg/80...

worldvoyageur··on The Crime Messenger
"His father designed the data encryption algorithm.

“My dad's a genius,” said Eap. “It had the highest level of encryption available.”

Not only did Sky ECC provide end-to-end encryption, like Whatsapp or Signal, but unlike those free apps, it also redirected the data on its own secure network. "

This was the basis for users to think the system was secure? Seriously!?!

I'm reminded of the saying 'don't roll your own crypto'. Obviously the authorities were able to crack the crypto, probably at multiple points.

worldvoyageur··on Big Data for the Leviathan
No paywall on the original source for me.
worldvoyageur··on Blue whale skeleton at New Bedford museum still oozing oil
Crude oil saved the whales from extinction.

Kerosene, refined from crude oil, was at least as good as whale oil for lamps. It was also cheaper, so that was the end of the whaling industry. There were pathetic advertisements from the whale oil people of that time arguing for 'pure' whale oil over 'impure' substitutes. However kerosene was so obviously a better deal consumers switched with lightning speed anyway.

As an aside, gasoline was a waste product of the crude oil refining process that produced kerosene. That meant very cheap fuel for the internal combustion engine which was starting its climb up the technology s-curve at the same time.

worldvoyageur··on New images show state of preservation of Ernest Shackleton's ship
If you don't count the dogs.
worldvoyageur··on Nobel Prize in Economics to Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson
" This year’s laureates in the economic sciences – Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson – have demonstrated the importance of societal institutions for a country’s prosperity. Societies with a poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better. The laureates’ research helps us understand why. "

There is an excellent overview on the Marginal Revolution blog:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/ac...

Alex Tabarrok writes:

" I think of Daron Acemoglu (GS) as the Wilt Chamberlin of economics, an absolute monster of productivity who racks up the papers and the citations at nearly unprecedented rates. According to Google Scholar he has 247,440 citations and an H-index of 175, which means 175 papers each with more than 175 citations. Pause on that for a moment. Daron got his PhD in 1992 so that’s over 5 papers per year which would be tremendous by itself–but we are talking 5 path-breaking, highly-cited papers per year plus many others! (Of course, most written with excellent co-authors). In addition, he’s the author of a massive textbook on economic growth. More than any other economist Daron has pushed the cutting-edge of technical economics and has also written books of deep scholarship still accessible to the public. In his overview of Daron’s work for the John Bates Clark medal Robert Shimer wrote “he can write faster than I can digest his research.” I believe that is true for the profession as a whole. We are all catching-up to Daron Acemoglu. "

worldvoyageur··on Mathematicians prove Hawking wrong about the most extreme black holes
" In principle, a black hole can reach a point where it has as much charge or spin as it possibly can, given its mass. Such a black hole is called “extremal” — the extreme of the extremes.

These black holes have some bizarre properties. In particular, the so-called surface gravity at the boundary, or event horizon, of such a black hole is zero. "

It had been thought impossible for such black holes to exist. However, new work now demonstrates that such black holes are indeed possible.

None have been found, however. Though this seems unsurprising. How would you detect one?

worldvoyageur··on Launch HN: Sorcerer (YC S24) – Weather balloons that collect more data
These guys [https://www.scientificballoonsolutions.com/news/], as of October 2018, claim the world record. [edit: the site linked says Alan Adamson but an upstream post mentions Lee Meadows. That thread also credits Bill Brown as a pioneer - https://www.stratoballooning.org/membership#!biz/id/5f4d7b97...]

The world record balloon was launched on September 21, 2016, stayed up over 767 days, circled the world 35 times and traveled over 1.5 million kilometers.

Their website, still from 2018, indicates they are working on even better designs.

worldvoyageur··on Launch HN: Sorcerer (YC S24) – Weather balloons that collect more data
In reading the documents google's Loon made available before shutting down (and saying that hydrogen airships were the way to go) [https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%...], the bottleneck on staying up longer was helium loss. Lots of things, mechanical failure etc, caused flights to end early. But the ultimate limit seems to be either helium loss or the impact of helium absorption on seals etc causing failure. Helium is a very small molecule, so very hard to keep confined.

However, as they learned from experience, Loon was slowly increasing their upper limit on how long their balloons could stay up.

worldvoyageur··on The Viral Paleontologist Who Unearths Pathogens' Deep Histories
The main flu in circulation every year, H1N1, has likely a direct descendant of the Spanish Flu from the 1918 global pandemic.

" In 2022, he published a complete genome of Spanish flu from a lung taken from a 17-year-old girl who died of pneumonia in 1918. From this genome, he learned that our seasonal H1N1 influenza virus is likely a direct descendant of that pandemic-causing pathogen. "

The same scientist found measles from 1912, that it was substantially the same as measles 2024, that a measles 2024 vaccine worked against measles 2012 and that measles likely originated ~2500 years ago, at the same time as a surge in the development of urban areas of sufficient size to support the sustained spread of measles.

worldvoyageur··on Scientists believe they now know where the dinosaur-killing asteroid came from
From the abstract of the paper the article is based on:

" Our data indicate that the Chicxulub impactor was a carbonaceous-type asteroid, which had formed beyond the orbit of Jupiter. The five other impact structures have isotopic signatures that are more consistent with siliceous-type asteroids, which formed closer to the Sun. The ancient spherule layer samples are consistent with impacts of carbonaceous-type asteroids during Earth’s final stages of accretion. "

The link to the paper itself: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk4868

worldvoyageur··on Japan's Nikkei Posts Biggest Single-Day Fall Since 1987 After Weak U.S. Data
That, plus the trade was highly leveraged, so when yen rates went up the traders were asked to provide more margin. To meet the extra margin required they needed to unwind at least some of their position.
worldvoyageur··on Why Levittown didn't revolutionize homebuilding
While the slow strangulation of Levitt's mass production formula for building large volumes of homes that were affordable for people who otherwise couldn't afford housing was the saddest part, in 1994 Levitt died in poverty close to the well over 20,000 affordable homes he had built in Long Island.
worldvoyageur··on How do you find a good manager?
"

Good managers have roughly twice the impact on team performance as good workers. People who nominate themselves to be in charge perform worse than managers appointed by lottery, in part because self-promoted managers are overconfident, especially about their social skills. Managerial performance is positively predicted by economic decision-making skill and fluid intelligence – but not gender, age, or ethnicity.

"

worldvoyageur··on The fascinating and complicated sex lives of white-throated sparrows
Two sexes (male, female), each with two variants (white throat, yellow throat), creating four genders (wM, yM, wF, yF).

Males and females need to pair or there will be no new sparrows. However opposite variants also need to pair or for behaviour reasons there will be no successful young.

For instance, wM-wF spend so much energy fighting with each other they fail to raise young.

The y variants are less aggressive but better with young and are the most popular mate choices. The y-variants are also monogomous while the w-variants are not.

The aggressive w-variants grab all the y-variants as partners. The result is that y-y pairs are rarely (never?) seen, even though they could produce young.

The article notes that yellow throats have different food strategies from white throats. This will also tend to reinforce alternate gender pairing.

An MF pair is going to bring in less food if both are going after the same sources (they might start fighting!) while if each has a different strategy the young are less vulnerable to food shortages should one strategy or another not produce at any given time.

The four gender outcome seems to be in a sustainable equilibrium. If one is favoured, say wM-yF, then these sparrows would become like most other birds, with males having one colour pattern and females another.

Instead, behaviours have somehow distributed themselves across genders so a successful couple needs to match both if they are to raise the next generation of young.

worldvoyageur··on Dr. Ruth Westheimer, America's pioneering sex therapist, dies at 96
The 'Ask Dr. Ruth' documentary is on my list of all time best documentaries.
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