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willmarch

344 karma · joined February 23, 2024

willmarch.com
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willmarch··on An agent used DNS to reach an external chatbot
Why?
willmarch··on Returning from vacation? The government can search your phone without a warrant
Why should people give up their right to free expression and being secure in their papers simply because you have voluntarily given up that right in advance?
willmarch··on An agent used DNS to reach an external chatbot
Isn’t it only doxxing when you publish the information?
willmarch··on An agent used DNS to reach an external chatbot
Why?
willmarch··on Japanese used bookstores see 5x sales surge as books are being bought by the ton
It’s more that they remove the spine of the book to more quickly, accurately, and easily scan through the pages. The book’s structural integrity is destroyed in the scanning process which is why they have to discard them when they are done.
willmarch··on Tell HN: Claude Code just accepted and signed a contract for me. Without asking
Did you intervene or did Claude Code wait for your confirmation?

Those are two vastly different things.

willmarch··on Show HN: A competition for small neural networks that play strategy games
Signed up and submitted a test model. Now the real training begins!
willmarch··on Show HN: A competition for small neural networks that play strategy games
Pretty neat! I'm considering entering some models. How long will you be running these competitions?
willmarch··on The LLMentalist Effect (2023)
First off, there is no accepted definition or test for consciousness. The concept is something we cannot prove even exists (outside of magical or imprecise, human-centric definitions).

Second, there is no common definition of thinking that requires consciousness as a prerequisite (that seems to be a false/invalid statement you're making to try to gloss over accepted definitions for thinking/intelligence that describe/fit AI agents well).

And third, if we can't prove consciousness even in animal species close to humans (or even other humans) in cognitive abilities, then you cannot in good faith (being honest about what we know or don't know empirically) say that an LLM Is not conscious (and the same goes for an LLM thinking or having intelligence).

It is more likely that humans made up a term (consciousness) to try to separate human intellect from that of other animals (for veiled religious and mystical reasons, along with concepts like "the soul") and now people are falling back into that flawed definition in new quasi-religious debates around AI (like the debate around evolution previously) that challenge our deeply held (but flawed) beliefs/opinions around our understanding of our own abilities and our incessant need to feel special/supreme in the universe so we don't have to come to terms with hard realities and nuanced understandings about the reality in which we live.

willmarch··on The LLMentalist Effect (2023)
You just completely ignored the two words being discussed: "thinking" and "intelligence"
willmarch··on The LLMentalist Effect (2023)
Can you explain to me how a Millennium Problem gets solved without any thinking or intelligence?

If someone's opinion is illogical and clearly incorrect (not based in facts or in reality) it is not valid and doesn't not have to be given any serious consideration in a disagreement. Personal opinions are subordinate to facts and reality.

willmarch··on The LLMentalist Effect (2023)
"you can solve NS without thinking."

What?!

The constant goalpost moving and redefining of "thinking" and "intelligence" is simply unbelievable at this point

willmarch··on Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman, Names Son to Replace Him
Sad.
willmarch··on Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman, Names Son to Replace Him
Which is what?
willmarch··on AI is breaking our proxies for expertise
I appreciate the references but I'm guessing they don't fully support the claims you made above, at least not as strongly as you're making them seem.

While they talk about egalitarianism and resisting domineering members, and various organizational structures, they don't establish that people followed "correct" individuals or that violence increases with increased population growth/agriculture/weapons.

I think I'm safe to say that there is plenty of evidence for violence that predates agriculture and modern society, even if agriculture and nation-states increased the scale and visibility of such violence overall.

I think replacing "nasty, brutish, and short" with its opposite "noble savage" ideal is probably just as mistaken of a projection from literature. Human nature doesn't seem to change much throughout history, tools might just make that violence more efficient and more visible.

I don't think your thesis is fully wrong, but I don't think it is fully right either, which was my point in pushing back against the earlier statements you made.

willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
I guess we'll find out soon enough...
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
Your child never messed up en passant (or had trouble understanding it in a real game), castled through or into a check, didn't see a discovered check after moving a piece, never got confused by how stalemate works?
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
...and mistakes like not seeing discovered checks, castling into check, trying to castle out of check, castling through a check, missing checks when promoting a piece, misunderstanding how stalemate works, etc?

If you compared a human after hundreds of games to a SOTA LLM that was also trained on the output of hundreds of chess games that it played, I suspect you would notice similar improvements.

willmarch··on AI is breaking our proxies for expertise
This still feels more like an opinion than facts/proof. I was hoping for actual cited papers or studies, it feels like you just reiterated what you said above but adding "In anthropology..."
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
The only way to master anything is lots of trial and error. Coaches and teachers can help guide you towards more focused trial and error paths but the student still has to do the lessons and put in the work of learning, and learning only truly happens through doing.

Humans are not perfect and make mistakes in learning even when they have memorized the rules. A simple example is new players will often move a piece, exposing their king to check, and a more experienced player must point out to them that they have made an illegal move (because a new player often has not encoded that pattern for looking for exposed checks because they're more focused on how the pieces move, not what that piece exposes.)

We're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
So your brother tried to make illegal moves while learning the game and it took your brother hundreds of games to get to be a decent player? I don't see how this contradicts anything I said...
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
Reading can kickstart the process, but you can also make random moves guided by some sort of system (such as a computer GUI) or learn by watching other players play. The overall point is that you learn through observation and lots of trial and error (whether you are a human or a computer). And beginners in chess often make illegal moves even after learning the rules, it's fairly common.

It feels like you're trying to say that humans never make illegal moves while learning chess, which doesn't match with my experience. I'm trying to understand your overall point.

willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
That has not been my experience with new players, they regularly make invalid or incorrect moves even after detailed instructions especially in novel situations.
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
Yes, we all know that biological systems are more efficient than machines through billions of years of evolution and natural selection but the overall process is largely the same (interacting with an environment, learning from results, improving underlying architecture, etc); efficiencies will come with more time and improvements.
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
I believe I remember reading it was based on Glaurung's code (which eventually evolved into what we now know as the juggernaut Stockfish).
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
Yes, but my point is that humans can’t even do the thing that the above comments are claiming humans can do (read a book or two and be decent at chess), and then they complain that LLMs can’t do the same thing (that humans can’t do either).

We seem to be moving goalposts to the point that humans don’t even live up to the expectations of the AI critics. The only way you get better at chess is by playing a lot of games and learning from mistakes, that goes for humans or AI agents, not simply by reading about chess.

willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
Yes, this is essentially how AlphaGo and AlphaZero algorithms work to train superhuman Go/chess/shogi agents. It’s an elegant algorithm that is analogous to how humans learn games.
willmarch··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
If you gave a human a book or two on chess they would not become a decent player (they would be closer to 500-600 than 1100 ELO) and they would only get better after playing hundreds or thousands of games (often making illegal moves and moves that violate the rules of chess as they learn).

Your assumptions/intuition about generic human intelligence feels quite incorrect, considering LLMs currently play better than a brand new human player would (presumably without any attempt to fine tune them specific on chess, such as playing thousands of games).

willmarch··on AI is breaking our proxies for expertise
Do you have any solid evidence to back up anything you’re asserting here?

In my understanding of history (pre-enlightenment), people didn’t gather around ideas that were “correct more often” but gathered around ideas and personalities that reinforced their own ignorance, superstitions and biases and were openly hostile to “correct” ideas and truth, especially if those ideas upset tradition or dogma.

I also don’t understand how you’re getting to “violence was not a default until populations grew” since, perhaps, “default” violence was only properly recorded after populations grew and education/writing became more widespread. It’s very likely everyday violence in small groups was simply accepted as “the way things are”and simply ignored, as it often is even to this day.

willmarch··on Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives
How does punishing someone make crashes better? I would rather have fewer crashes because of a system that can't be punished than more crashes with punishment.

Being able to punish someone doesn't change the fact that a crash happened and it doesn't change the fact that someone died. There is a difference between punishment and justice, there is rarely ever perfect justice in life.

The best we can do is mitigate harms as much as possible, and it seems self-driving might be the best mitigation of traffic accidents compared to human drivers.

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