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whatok

5,409 karma · joined February 5, 2015

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whatok··on Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy
Private equity firms raise funds (usually have a 10yr investment horizon) and use these funds to serve as the equity tranche for a buyout that the remainder is financed with debt. Banks (or other investment firms sometimes nowadays) will provide financing for these buyouts and that financing is later refinanced with syndicated financing through loans or bonds.

There are a decent amount of banks that were in the middle of this process, covid hit, and they are now stuck with those loans on their books.

whatok··on Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy
Can you explain how the creditors of 4bn in Neiman Marcus debt are making money off this?
whatok··on Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition [pdf]
Ah my mistake. Didn't recognize the domain.
whatok··on Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition [pdf]
The book is also available on Prof Gelman's department site which I would probably link to instead:

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/

whatok··on California sues Uber and Lyft, claiming workers are misclassified
What "bad work" were people doing before Uber and Lyft? Were all of these people previously unemployed before these companies came around? Did any of these drivers quit other employment to be an Uber or Lyft driver?
whatok··on Universa tail fund returned 3,600% in March
Private equity does it. Why not these guys?

But seriously, not charging SOME sort of fee on capital that is likely to be uninvested on a short-term horizon is giving investors a pretty valuable free option. I'm assuming they have a flexible mandate and are able to invest more given some sort of market conditions. Gauging that capacity and properly modeling trade sizes is extremely important for a strategy like this and is not free.

whatok··on Universa tail fund returned 3,600% in March
% returns are usually quoted vs AUM; not invested capital.
whatok··on Boeing, expecting a long slump, will cut 16k jobs
Boeing has received no bailout money.
whatok··on Boeing, expecting a long slump, will cut 16k jobs
Delivery has taken so long that they are going to run into refund periods soon. There's normally massive down payments for these which deters cancellations but these aren't ordinary times. You are almost certainly going to see consolidation within the airlines and there's little to no chance of more plane purchases in that case.
whatok··on U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
Nearly half (2.25%) of the decline was in healthcare. "Elective" procedures on hold played a large role in that and conventional wisdom would suggest that this $ would get pulled forward into Q2. I don't think it's that simple as we have had major job losses and with healthcare being tied to employment, you may not see the rebound in this that you would think.
whatok··on Uber discusses plan to lay off about 20% of employees
Uber eats is still a small but growing part of their business. I'm pretty sure Uber is still losing money on Uber Eats and many of their large markets are trying to pass legislation to cap the fees they can charge. If they aren't making money now, they aren't going to make money with fees lowered by 50-60%.
whatok··on Uber discusses plan to lay off about 20% of employees
The Fed has announced a bunch of facilities but the only one affecting corporates that has made purchases has been the commercial paper facility. The primary and secondary facilities are still weeks off from being active. That's not to say that the announcements haven't had an effect on the market but even the CP facility is barely being used.
whatok··on Uber discusses plan to lay off about 20% of employees
>people are less likely to hold corporate debt and instead hold cash. People are less likely to hold corporate debt because the corporation has less revenue to service its debt.

This omits part of the investing dynamic and is too simplistic of a conclusion for what's going on right now. There has been sky high investment grade issuance over the past two months and there doesn't seem to be a lack of demand for it. What changes is the price the market demands to hold any asset. There is always a price and that's why companies (cruise and airlines) that are in way worse shape than Uber have been able to raise money both in the debt and equity markets.

>if Uber were to try to sell bonds, the spread over, say, treasuries, would probably be above 8-10%.

> In other words, corporate debt isn't priced according to lowered rates.

These two statements are contradictory. Nothing exists in a vacuum but all else equal, if rates are lower, issuers are usually able to issue for lower all-in yields. Additionally, high yield is a much more idiosyncratic market with way less interest rate sensitivity and new issuance is almost always priced on yield; not spread.

> The only way the Fed would help would be if the Fed bought Uber's bonds, but that would require Uber to be investment grade, which would be laughable, or a "fallen angel", a company which was investment grade before the crisis but has since been downgraded.

The Fed has already helped Uber as well as other high yield companies through the various facilities it has announced. They are not directly affected by any of them but as with all central bank policies, it creates a reach for yield that flows all the way down.

whatok··on Why we listen to new music
Aphex Twin is not a "they" and he's probably more prolific on a larger scale now than he ever was.
whatok··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
-$37 now
whatok··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
Trading at negative $1.43. Incredible stuff.
whatok··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
John C. Hull - Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives has details on an accidental cattle futures physical settlement.

https://www.passeidireto.com/arquivo/73586616/john-c-hull-op...

whatok··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
The percentage of contracts that result in delivery is only a marginal factor in this case. The fact that physical delivery exists makes it so that positions must be closed out; even if the May contract is down 44% on the day and you thought you would be clever buying the dip on Friday when oil couldn't possibly go lower.
whatok··on Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
This doesn't make any sense. Issuers don't need to pre-fund acquisitions before making offers so BRK wouldn't need any JPY before acting and in the event of an acquisition closing, they would easily be able to issuer in any currency on earth. Don't know the name well at all but BRK issued in JPY last year as well so I'm guessing they have some recurring JPY liabilities.
whatok··on Ask HN: How is your PPP loan application coming along?
Some stats on the program so far:

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/PPP%20Deck%2...

whatok··on Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
The US government is receiving warrants as part of the airline bailouts. In the case of AAL, they could potentially dilute existing shareholders by 10%. Ridiculously generous terms on everything considering the alternative.
whatok··on Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
The recent Fed announcements mostly served to reopen the high yield primary market and the investment grade markets were wide open well before that; especially for a strong issuer like BRK.
whatok··on Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
BRK issues regularly at the insurance company level. I wouldn't overthink it. Even with the recently issued USD bonds much wider, they're still yielding around the same at issue with rates much lower. Strong issuers like BRK should be taking advantage of much lower rates and extreme demand for investment grade bonds right now to refinance higher coupon debt.
whatok··on More Than 5.2M More U.S. Workers Filed for Unemployment
A lot of this is timing on reopening and how consumers are doing. If you just naively assumed a 1:1 fire to rehire ratio on some time window, there's still an extreme amount of friction involved in rebalancing that to previous levels. Spending is not going to magically bounce back to normal as anyone who had their mortgage or rent frozen is going to have to pay that back in a few months. Or just pay down credit card debt that they racked up. There's a lot of good data out there showing that savings rates (that has a massive effect on consumer spending) go way up during recessions/depressions and I wouldn't expect that to be any different.

I also wouldn't assume that there won't be further layoffs later in the year that hit salaried workers. Airlines are almost certainly going to do massive layoffs as soon as their federal programs expire in October and a huge portion of those people are going to be competing for hourly jobs.

Then think about how many people are going to get laid off after their employer starts monitoring VPN traffic and fully realizes that a good 20-30% of their workforce does nothing all day.

whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
Ok, I'm just pointing out that this does not bail out airlines at all. It helps on the margin but airlines are very idiosyncratic right now and likely are going to require much different and flexible funding needs than what these facilities are designed for. Congress will (and already is) be bailing out the airlines; not the Fed.

Several IG airlines could have issued over the past few weeks but haven't for a reason. We have had a flood of IG new issuance and not a single airline or adjacent industry. CCL which basically has the same problems as airlines right now (gov basically making business illegal) was able to raise quite a bit of money. Difference is, they know that they aren't going to get bailed out.

And as of today my initial comment is out of date since DAL got downgraded.

whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
I'm well-aware of what "those letters" mean. I hope you're able to contextualize that quote with the rest of that post as well as my subsequent reply.
whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
Yes, HYG has some HY airliners but that doesn't make the actual issuers available for any of these facilities. That's the point that I was making.
whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
You're making wildly sweeping statements about "extending and pretending" without having any of the underlying facts. I'm clarifying those statements with some underlying facts. Up to you to incorporate that into your worldview.
whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
Ford was only downgraded by a single rating agency in September and only recently downgraded by the rest last month; well after the initial model of these facilities was announced. Ford has been preparing for being downgraded and has the liquidity to support themselves even without Fed action.

I'm not waving away rating agencies. I'm saying that General Motors has less liquidity than Ford. In your "no bailouts" world, Ford would be in better shape than General Motors. General Motors is investment grade, does that magically make them better than Ford even though cash on hand says different?

Ratings really mean nothing right now as far as the health of a company goes and ratings agencies have specifically mentioned that they are backlogged with assessing all consequences of what's going on right now. Ratings have and are always backwards looking data. How the "largest funds" in the world invest is completely irrelevant for this.

whatok··on Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
The Fed buying junk bonds is completely misleading and likely only has consequences for a single company; Ford. Ford has more liquidity on-hand than GM (investment grade which means nothing right now) and can likely ride this out better than they can. Which one is more "overextended"? Do you have any idea of how large the universe is that this covers? Are these non-high yield companies not "overextended" somehow because a random rating agency put some different letters next to their name?
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