There are a decent amount of banks that were in the middle of this process, covid hit, and they are now stuck with those loans on their books.
5,409 karma · joined February 5, 2015
There are a decent amount of banks that were in the middle of this process, covid hit, and they are now stuck with those loans on their books.
But seriously, not charging SOME sort of fee on capital that is likely to be uninvested on a short-term horizon is giving investors a pretty valuable free option. I'm assuming they have a flexible mandate and are able to invest more given some sort of market conditions. Gauging that capacity and properly modeling trade sizes is extremely important for a strategy like this and is not free.
This omits part of the investing dynamic and is too simplistic of a conclusion for what's going on right now. There has been sky high investment grade issuance over the past two months and there doesn't seem to be a lack of demand for it. What changes is the price the market demands to hold any asset. There is always a price and that's why companies (cruise and airlines) that are in way worse shape than Uber have been able to raise money both in the debt and equity markets.
>if Uber were to try to sell bonds, the spread over, say, treasuries, would probably be above 8-10%.
> In other words, corporate debt isn't priced according to lowered rates.
These two statements are contradictory. Nothing exists in a vacuum but all else equal, if rates are lower, issuers are usually able to issue for lower all-in yields. Additionally, high yield is a much more idiosyncratic market with way less interest rate sensitivity and new issuance is almost always priced on yield; not spread.
> The only way the Fed would help would be if the Fed bought Uber's bonds, but that would require Uber to be investment grade, which would be laughable, or a "fallen angel", a company which was investment grade before the crisis but has since been downgraded.
The Fed has already helped Uber as well as other high yield companies through the various facilities it has announced. They are not directly affected by any of them but as with all central bank policies, it creates a reach for yield that flows all the way down.
https://www.passeidireto.com/arquivo/73586616/john-c-hull-op...
https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/PPP%20Deck%2...
I also wouldn't assume that there won't be further layoffs later in the year that hit salaried workers. Airlines are almost certainly going to do massive layoffs as soon as their federal programs expire in October and a huge portion of those people are going to be competing for hourly jobs.
Then think about how many people are going to get laid off after their employer starts monitoring VPN traffic and fully realizes that a good 20-30% of their workforce does nothing all day.
Several IG airlines could have issued over the past few weeks but haven't for a reason. We have had a flood of IG new issuance and not a single airline or adjacent industry. CCL which basically has the same problems as airlines right now (gov basically making business illegal) was able to raise quite a bit of money. Difference is, they know that they aren't going to get bailed out.
And as of today my initial comment is out of date since DAL got downgraded.
I'm not waving away rating agencies. I'm saying that General Motors has less liquidity than Ford. In your "no bailouts" world, Ford would be in better shape than General Motors. General Motors is investment grade, does that magically make them better than Ford even though cash on hand says different?
Ratings really mean nothing right now as far as the health of a company goes and ratings agencies have specifically mentioned that they are backlogged with assessing all consequences of what's going on right now. Ratings have and are always backwards looking data. How the "largest funds" in the world invest is completely irrelevant for this.