A lot of this is timing on reopening and how consumers are doing. If you just naively assumed a 1:1 fire to rehire ratio on some time window, there's still an extreme amount of friction involved in rebalancing that to previous levels. Spending is not going to magically bounce back to normal as anyone who had their mortgage or rent frozen is going to have to pay that back in a few months. Or just pay down credit card debt that they racked up. There's a lot of good data out there showing that savings rates (that has a massive effect on consumer spending) go way up during recessions/depressions and I wouldn't expect that to be any different.

I also wouldn't assume that there won't be further layoffs later in the year that hit salaried workers. Airlines are almost certainly going to do massive layoffs as soon as their federal programs expire in October and a huge portion of those people are going to be competing for hourly jobs.

Then think about how many people are going to get laid off after their employer starts monitoring VPN traffic and fully realizes that a good 20-30% of their workforce does nothing all day.