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verteu

1,404 karma · joined August 28, 2013

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verteu··on How each pillar of the First Amendment is under attack
If managing clients' shares gives them such colossal power, how come the founder of Vanguard was worth less than the founder of In-N-Out Burger?
verteu··on S&P 500, Nasdaq drop as tariffs spark recession fears
Nuclear Phynance was one, but it's dead now.
verteu··on How each pillar of the First Amendment is under attack
> They cut and pasted answers from a different question

No, the transcript you pasted shows it's part of her answer from the same question.

verteu··on How each pillar of the First Amendment is under attack
Asset managers do not control the news. Jack Bogle died with a net worth of $80mm. He was not even powerful enough to afford a top-tier penthouse in Manhattan, let alone control the media.
verteu··on Oregon abandoned its drug law. Then came the mass arrests
See also: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
verteu··on Oregon abandoned its drug law. Then came the mass arrests
It doesn't seem like the law worked very well. Overdoses went up, and while this was largely due to covid & fent trends, it certainly was not an obvious success: https://imgur.com/a/45WAB6F

https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.cfsecosystem.com/m110/Presen...

https://www.rti.org/event/oregons-ballot-measure-110-symposi...

verteu··on The average college student today
I think the core problem is that administration would not allow you to do this.

> What am I supposed to do? Keep standards high and fail them all? That’s not an option for untenured faculty who would like to keep their jobs.

verteu··on Utah becomes first US state to ban fluoride in its water
Seems to cause problems at lower levels than that:

> The NTP monograph concluded, with moderate confidence, that higher levels of fluoride exposure, such as drinking water containing more than 1.5 milligrams of fluoride per liter, are associated with lower IQ in children.

https://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/whatwestudy/assessments/noncancer/...

verteu··on Real Time Chess – A physical chess board without the concept of turns
He made a great move in the game, but completely mis-analyzed the reason it works during the post-game interview [1]. Several GMs found that suspicious, especially given revelations that he'd previously admitted to cheating.

Specifically, move 19. Qd3! [2], appears to hang the knight. When asked how he'd respond if his opponent simply took the knight (19... dxc4), he says he is "completely winning", then proceeds to give some moves that lead to a flat-out losing position. (Eg: Any GM or sufficiently strong engine agrees that r2q1rk1/1pbn1p2/2p1b1pB/p3P3/P1p2P2/2P3QP/1P4P1/3RRBK1 b - - 0 1 is lost for White.)

To be fair, he's been playing incredibly well recently, and no other evidence of cheating came out, so I'm inclined to believe it was just a "bad interview."

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI9jAU0jhJU

[2] https://www.chess.com/events/2022-sinquefield-cup/04/Niemann...

verteu··on Supply constraints do not explain house price, quantity growth across US cities
But "people and companies changing markets" is encoded in the slope of the demand curve, and "building happening at different price points" is encoded in the slope of the supply curve, right?
verteu··on Supply constraints do not explain house price, quantity growth across US cities
> the first order term has to do with how much money people have (well and there's the interplay with where those people want to live).

That is the demand curve in a supply-demand model.

verteu··on North Korea Launders Billions in Stolen Crypto
Depends on the scale. Withdrawing millions of dollars to a bank account will require more than the median user's cookies, passwords, & 2FA.
verteu··on North Korea Launders Billions in Stolen Crypto
> do we really think that an entire nation state is unable to set up the apparatus to cheat a few measly KYC checks?

To withdraw a few thousand dollars? Easily. To withdraw 5 billion dollars of fiat? You'll face much more than "a few measly KYC checks."

verteu··on Supply constraints do not explain house price, quantity growth across US cities
Really? https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.png

Seems to correlate pretty well to me. Per [1] and [2], YoY home prices are decreasing in most regions with high % change in homes built ("New housing units authorized per 1k existing (2021)"), eg: Austin, Jacksonville, Houston, Phoenix, Nashville, Phoenix, Raleigh.

[1] https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-m...

[2] https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/#/

verteu··on The New York Stock Exchange plans to launch NYSE Texas
Why would a new exchange result in worse retail fills? They're obligated to get the NNBO price across all exchanges, and much of the retail flow doesn't even hit exchanges at all (internalized by Citadel/Virtu).
verteu··on CDC Study Finds Silent Bird Flu Infections in Dairy Veterinarians
I'm not too concerned, as it doesn't spread very well from human-to-human (R0 << 1).
verteu··on US prosecutor in New York resigns after order to drop mayoral case
He is, of course, cartoonishly guilty:

> At one point during her voluntary interview [with the FBI], the Adams Staffer excused herself to a bathroom and, while there, deleted the encrypted messaging applications she had used to communicate with Adams, the Promoter, the Turkish Official, the Airline Manager, and others.

> Adams claimed that after he learned about the investigation into his conduct, he changed the password on November 5, 2024, and increased the complexity of his password from four digits to six. Adams had done this, he claimed, to prevent members of his staff from inadvertently or intentionally deleting the contents of his phone because, according to Adams, he wished to preserve the contents of his phone due to the investigation. But, Adams further claimed, he had forgotten the password he had just set, and thus was unable to provide the FBI with a password that would unlock the phone.

verteu··on Our phones are killing our ability to feel sexy (2024)
The decrease seems largest from 2010 to 2016, which correlates quite strongly with smartphone ownership rates, doesn't it?
verteu··on Caltrain's electric fleet more efficient than expected
Surely the relevant metric is population density?
verteu··on Ross Ulbricht granted a full pardon
A few moments' research reveal many reasons to think the evidence was real, eg:

Ulbricht's right-hand-man Roger Thomas Clark, who was involved in one of the murder-for-hire conversations, admitted the conversation was real during his trial:

"In his own remarks, Clark didn't comment on that murder-for-hire conversation—which he at one point claimed had been fabricated by Ulbricht but later conceded was real."

https://www.wired.com/story/silk-road-variety-jones-sentenci...

verteu··on Ross Ulbricht granted a full pardon
What about when his (non-FBI, now-convicted) right-hand-man Roger Thomas Clark convinced him to hire someone for murder?

Surely that can't be entrapment.

"Clark didn't comment on that murder-for-hire conversation—which he at one point claimed had been fabricated by Ulbricht but later conceded was real"

https://www.wired.com/story/silk-road-variety-jones-sentenci...

verteu··on Ross Ulbricht granted a full pardon
> it was never real and no one was ever in danger.

Because one of the hitmen he hired was a scammer, and another was an FBI agent. Still clearly a crime to hire them for murder.

Ulbricht's right-hand-man Roger Thomas Clark, who was involved in one of the murder-for-hire conversations, admitted the conversation was real during his trial:

"In his own remarks, Clark didn't comment on that murder-for-hire conversation—which he at one point claimed had been fabricated by Ulbricht but later conceded was real."

verteu··on Ross Ulbricht granted a full pardon
Attempting to hire a hitman who turns out to be an FBI agent is still a crime, and likely not entrapment in the legal sense.
verteu··on Why is the American diet so deadly?
Update: I also found a dissenting letter, with some references: https://www.ejinme.com/article/S0953-6205(21)00241-7/pdf

"Metabolic adaptation is not a major barrier to weight-loss maintenance" (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000291652...)

verteu··on Two fire experts interviewed about L.A. wildfires
Whoops, I did. Thanks for the correction!
verteu··on JPMorgan Workers Ponder Union in Wake of Return-to-Office Mandate
I've found that RTO is mainly useful for new employees. They have lots of novice questions, false assumptions, and sub-optimal workflows that are most easily corrected in person (where the barrier to talking or noticing issues is lower).

For ICs with good experience/independence, I haven't noticed any benefit.

verteu··on Two fire experts interviewed about L.A. wildfires
GP is referring to these fires: https://apnews.com/article/af0ec776efd4b3049f7800ff981bff88

> Pacific Gas & Electric’s outdated equipment ignited wildfires in California that killed more than 100 people, wiped out entire towns and led the company to confess to crimes driven by its greed and neglect.

> The decision by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Dennis Montali clears the way for PG&E to pay $25.5 billion for losses from devastating fires in 2017 and 2018.

verteu··on Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)
Agreed -- It also helps the rich by keeping rents & home values high (compared to the ideal solution of "allow tons of housing to be built, increasing supply and decreasing cost-of-living.")
verteu··on Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)
They're referring to psychiatric civil commitment
verteu··on Finland's zero homeless strategy (2021)
They also do a lot of compulsory psychiatric detention: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychiatric-bulletin...

> Finnish mental health legislation takes a medical approach to compulsory measures, emphasising the need for treatment of psychiatric patients over civil liberties concerns... Finland has the highest rates of detention per 100 000 inhabitants, about 214 compared with 93 in the UK and 11 in Italy.

> If at the end of the 3-month period it is considered likely that detention criteria are still fulfilled, new recommendations MII and MIII are filed and the renewed detention is then valid for 6 months. However, this second period of detention has to be immediately confirmed by a local administrative court.

edit: I should mention that I've seen fairly convincing cross-sectional evidence that homelessness is more related to the housing market than mental illness: https://www.ucpress.edu/books/homelessness-is-a-housing-prob... , https://www.nahro.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/NAHRO-Summi...

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