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Comment by verteu | Hacker News Reader

Seems to correlate pretty well to me. Per [1] and [2], YoY home prices are decreasing in most regions with high % change in homes built ("New housing units authorized per 1k existing (2021)"), eg: Austin, Jacksonville, Houston, Phoenix, Nashville, Phoenix, Raleigh.

[1] https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-m...

[2] https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/#/

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It seems more correct to say that supppy/demand drives a ~second order effect. But the first order term has to do with how much money people have (well and there's the interplay with where those people want to live). That is what distinguishes low vs high cost of living areas, after all. It's also what differentiates prices today from prices twenty years ago. And gentrification is not driven by supply/demand per se but by the hand-in-hand growth of desirability and income.

> the first order term has to do with how much money people have (well and there's the interplay with where those people want to live).

That is the demand curve in a supply-demand model.

Sure, but is a lot more complicated than that when you factor in people and companies changing markets, building happening at different price points, etc.

But "people and companies changing markets" is encoded in the slope of the demand curve, and "building happening at different price points" is encoded in the slope of the supply curve, right?

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