HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

verteu

1,404 karma · joined August 28, 2013

submissionscomments
verteu··on US High school students' scores fall in reading and math
Good point, a true apples-to-apples comparison would be based on age rather than grade level.
verteu··on US High school students' scores fall in reading and math
Hard to conclude much from this, given New Jersey is consistently rated one of the top 2 states in the nation for K-12 education.

The lesson may even be the opposite: "If your school's biggest problem is 'too much money', outcomes will be pretty good."

verteu··on US High school students' scores fall in reading and math
Maybe California just has more rich people. When you control for demographics/SES, Texas schools seem far superior:

https://www.chadaldeman.com/p/which-states-actually-have-the...

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/States_Dem...

verteu··on ETFs now hold more than $3.1T worth of just top US companies
Wealthfront does US Direct Indexing for tax-loss harvesting, they're 25bps/yr.
verteu··on Why are anime catgirls blocking my access to the Linux kernel?
As mentioned in the article, mining one token gets you unfettered access for 7 days.
verteu··on Newsmax agrees to pay $67M in defamation case over bogus 2020 election claims
Yes, of course all four trials were rigged, along with the 2020 election.

And MEXICO is going to pay for the Wall!

verteu··on Why are anime catgirls blocking my access to the Linux kernel?
> PoW increases the cost for the bots which is great. Trivial to implement, sure, but that added cost will add up quickly.

No, the article estimates it would cost less than a single penny to scrape all pages of 1,000,000 distinct Anubis-guarded websites for an entire month.

verteu··on Newsmax agrees to pay $67M in defamation case over bogus 2020 election claims
The Russian collusion was real - that's why Trump's campaign chairman, foreign policy adviser, personal lawyer, and National Security Adviser were all found guilty in court.
verteu··on 19% of California houses are owned by investors
From my cursory analysis, "# of new housing units authorized" is by far the strongest predictor of rent & home values decreasing: https://i.imgur.com/BMsPrKY.png (r^2 = 0.47, P-value 0.000)

Nothing else ("% of housing owned by investors"?) is even close.

edit: Yes, obviously I included a time lag (3 years).

[1] https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-m...

[2] eg, https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/#/

verteu··on People kept working, became healthier while on basic income: report (2020)
Well, many people are on all the programs, and 2/3rds of Americans get no government assistance.

Thus, any UBI that doesn't cut the poorest people's benefits would cost 3x the current amount.

I don't think a 200% tax hike would be very popular.

verteu··on People kept working, became healthier while on basic income: report (2020)
Ballpark numbers: About 1/3 of Americans get government assistance, and typical administrative costs are 1-10% of the program.

Making these benefits universal would require spending 200% more, and save at most 10% in overhead.

Thus, optimistically, you'd be spending +190% more.

verteu··on People kept working, became healthier while on basic income: report (2020)
> If you put together all of the money we spend for all of that, I wouldn't be surprised if 90%, or even 100% of the cost of a UBI could be covered.

Administrative overhead is nowhere near as high as you estimate.

SNAP covers ~12% of the population with 5% overhead costs.

Medicaid covers ~20% of the population with 5-10% overhead.

Social security covers ~20% of the population with <1% overhead.

The extra spending to make benefits universal is an order of magnitude higher than any savings from eliminating bureaucracy.

verteu··on The US dollar is on track for its worst year in modern history
VXUS is a reasonable choice given those concerns.
verteu··on Jane Street Boss Says He Was Duped into Funding AK-47s for Coup
> Their actions are what you'd expect any firm to do to hedge their exposure

No, their actions were the opposite.

They were pushing the price in the same direction as their derivatives holding. A hedge would push it in the opposite direction. (Eg: If you're long calls, you would hedge by selling the underlying, bringing its price down.)

verteu··on Tesla's energy storage business gets sucked into the company's downward spiral
> Most of your other "big" car companies are also experiencing down-trending sales.

But they're priced at P/E of 7, while TSLA is P/E of 170.

Negative growth at 170 P/E is... Much, much worse than negative growth at P/E of 7.

verteu··on US Supreme Court limits federal judges' power to block Trump orders
The Supreme Court explicitly rejected this reasoning in Plyler v. Doe (1982).

> This Court's prior cases... cannot be distinguished on the asserted ground that persons who have entered the country illegally are not "within the jurisdiction" of a State even if they are present within its boundaries and subject to its laws. Nor do the logic and history of the Fourteenth Amendment support such a construction. Instead, use of the phrase "within its jurisdiction" confirms the understanding that the Fourteenth Amendment's protection extends to anyone, citizen or stranger, who is subject to the laws of a State, and reaches into every corner of a State's territory. Pp. 457 U. S. 210-216.

verteu··on US Supreme Court limits federal judges' power to block Trump orders
This is false, per US v. Wong Kim Ark, and the attempt to reinterpret "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" was shot down by courts in Plyler v Doe.
verteu··on The Tech Job Meltdown
> the tax is still proportional to revenue, which for many early stage startups is small, and should be growing rapidly enough that the marginal investment in your meager R&D team is worth it

This may hold true for "moonshot" startups, but the tax would still devastate "small-business"/"lifestyle" startups, where cost ~= revenue.

verteu··on RFK Jr.: HHS moves to restore public trust in vaccines
https://youtu.be/G4vP4GdHhoA?si=Tp890ELXvAfBp4cz&t=252
verteu··on See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]
For reference, CAGR from 1926 to today:

Milk: 2.5% (*low-quality data)

CPI: 2.9%

Copper: 3.4%

Gold: 5.2%

verteu··on Texas' annual reading test adjusted difficulty yearly, masking improvement
No, it looks like they are both getting worse and underperforming the nation: https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/subject/publications/s...
verteu··on Careless People
Though a far cry from steroids & doping, DeflateGate was found NOT to be explainable by the ideal gas law.

https://web.archive.org/web/20191107043435/https://static.nf...

"we have concluded that it is more probable than not that Jim McNally (the Officials Locker Room attendant for the Patriots) and John Jastremski (an equipment assistant for the Patriots) participated in a deliberate effort to release air from Patriots game balls after the balls were examined by the referee

...

Our consultants confirmed that a reduction in air pressure is a natural result of footballs moving from a relatively warm environment such as a locker room to a colder environment such as a playing field. According to our scientific consultants, however, the reduction in pressure of the Patriots game balls cannot be explained completely by basic scientific principles, such as the Ideal Gas Law, based on the circumstances and conditions likely to have been present on the day of the AFC Championship Game. In addition, the average pressure drop of the Patriots game balls exceeded the average pressure drop of the Colts balls ...

...

Based on the testing and analysis, however, Exponent concluded that, within the range of likely game conditions and circumstances studied, they could identify no set of credible environmental or physical factors that completely accounts for the Patriots halftime measurements or for the additional loss in air pressure exhibited by the Patriots game balls, as compared to the loss in air pressure exhibited by the Colts game balls. Dr. Marlow agreed with this conclusion. This absence of a credible scientific explanation for the Patriots halftime measurements tends to support a finding that human intervention may account for the additional loss of pressure exhibited by the Patriots balls."

verteu··on Air pollution fell substantially as Paris restricted car traffic
It's proportional to weight, so I imagine bicycles are negligible.
verteu··on How a $2k 'Made in the USA' Phone Is Manufactured
I'm guessing a few weeks of higher prices will change consumers' minds.
verteu··on Ask HN: How will the tariffs affect investor funding?
Exactly - Current thinking is we are headed for recession:

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

verteu··on Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
You are correct -- the (bid,ask) price can change with no trades taking place.

GP is hinting at a common fallacy -- I call it the "strong hands fallacy." It's common in crypto: "Every time the price of $fartcoin goes down, it's moving from weak hands to strong hands. Price drops are just more reason to be bullish!"

verteu··on Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
There was widespread institutional selling, and typically dip buyers are non-professional traders who underperform the market [1] [2]

At the end of the day, does it really matter who's the marginal buyer and who's the marginal seller?

Do we learn anything about the value of Apple Inc by learning that the marginal buyer was an HFT hoping to offload inventory in 500ns, a mid-frequency shop who will hedge delta at end-of-day, or a value investor who will hold for a lifetime?

I claim any such information would be rapidly priced in by flow-analysis algos, and thus reflected in the closing price.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/retail-bought-stocks-largest...

[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-investors-buy-dip-tru...

verteu··on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_ra...

> The European Commission says it charges an average tariff of just 1% on US products entering the EU market, "considering the actual trade in goods". It adds that the US administration collected approximately €7 billion of tariffs on EU products in 2023 compared to the EU's €3 billion on US goods.

> A World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimate puts the average tariff rate on US products entering the EU slightly higher at 4.8%.

> In both cases, this is far off the 39% figure quoted by the Trump administration.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/03/fact-check-are...

verteu··on Meritocracy doesn't exist and believing it does is bad for you (2019)
> I will never know why the rich ( north of 10 million in the US) feel a need to keep working though. Start a band, travel, etc.

I suspect it's selection bias: Non-workaholics rarely build vast wealth.

verteu··on Oregon abandoned its drug law. Then came the mass arrests
And https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37556870/
← PreviousPage 5 of 16Next →