https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/04/08/why-has-the-cor...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-tariffs-trade-... | https://archive.today/iKHbX
I hope in the long term the voting public can come back around to the idea that character and thoughtfulness still have a place in politics, but that might just be wishful thinking in a social/AI age where real truth in any particular domain is too complex for individuals to digest, intellectuals and experts have lost credibility with the public at large, and therefore trust in leadership is entirely based on superficial vibes and talking points that can resonate in a 5-10 second TikTok-ready take.
It's not necessarily that you're smarter, but you have different preferences and concerns given your circumstances.
If you're a low-paid worker you're likely very vulnerable and exposed globalisation. Globalisation is great because it means all the bad jobs low-paid workers used to do can be done even cheaper abroad, but if you're one of those workers you have to watch your opportunities drying up. Not sure it's going to happen now, but there was a hope that with places like India coming online even some of the more expensive digital jobs can now more easily be outsourced would be a huge boom for the IT sector which has historically had to pay very high salaries to employ skilled workers in the West. But again, whether this is good or not really depends on if you're one of the workers in these sectors – if you are you might think that we should protect jobs even if it is bad for GDP.
Plus if you're poor already you're not going to care much about an economic crash because you have no real stake in the economy. Even if this is a bad way to look at it because things can always get worse, the immediate impact of the DOW dropping isn't going to bother you if you have no assets.
Not all, but many people who voted Trump don't want a stable thoughtful character who will continue with the status-quo with a few minor adjustments. They actually want a mad man who will disrupt everything. Many even want the DOW to tank – we're seeing this sentiment all over places like X right now.
I live in the UK, but I saw the same kind of thing with Brexit too. Middle-class people understood immigration and the EU was good because immigration increased GDP and it meant those who went to university could study and work abroad. But these types of arguments are not very convincing for someone who is poor and on welfare (which would be over 50%+ of UK households). Politics needs to be discussed from a different perspective. Arguing something is bad for investors or GDP isn't going to convince people who are poor when the people on the other side of the argument are saying it's going to be good for jobs and the average American. Of course whether that's actually true or not is another conversation, but that's the way arguments need to be framed.
A lot of regular people are going to postpone that new MacBook purchase, pass on buying junior a car, cancel their second streaming subscription, etc.
If I were to fund a company now (not that I have the funds to invest in anything bigger than a lemonade stand!) I would fund something essential, or something that prospers in hard times.
Exactly how lucrative that makes the car repossession business, or the others, in any era, I don't know.
Investors will likely increase investment in other countries or keep their money liquid for a while to see what happens.
US tech is effectively dead unless the tariffs go away, and it may still be dead if the go away in a way that feels like it could be temporary.
Best case scenario is for SCOTUS to rule they're unconstitutional in the very near future.
My understanding is lower interest rates = more money for VCs and investors. Digital products, which most startups are building, aren't subject to Tariffs, unless you are shipping physical copies which most software startups are not.
If that is the case, would this mean more money for startups in non-US countries?
In the long-term however, I think Australia is in a strong position to thrive, assuming the tariffs don't get rolled back (admittedly, a very big assumption). Australia isn't as reliant on exports to the US as other countries. Australia is one of the few countries in the world that recorded a trade surplus against the US.
The biggest concern is what happens to China, where most of our exports go. Any problems there will impact Australia.
At the moment the future is uncertain, and that uncertainty spooks markets. But markets recover once certainly is restored.
Right now the uncertainty is mostly around the US consumer. Individually they're the big losers here. The goal of the tarrifs is to drive up consumer prices (to the point where local production is attractive. )
But local production takes time to create, so in the meantime they'll have to buy less. Once local production is in place, that will price output at market levels (meaning it stays expensive. )
The market for, say coffee, will fluctuate and production will rebalance somewhat. Americans will likely drink a bit less. But in the long run it'll just be normal.
So yes, the market hates an uncertain future, but certainty arrives pretty quick.
It's like how sandbags are really useful at preventing floods from getting into your house. But if you see a bunch of sandbags being distributed, it's not because there is about to be less flooding.
I would say wait for things to level-out before pursuing capital. Everything has gone to shit for the time being.