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vernon99

272 karma · joined November 1, 2012

Community builder, startup founder, explorer of unexplored.
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vernon99··on The Silicon Valley elite who want to build a city from scratch
Leas fortunate in what? We don’t even know housing prices there yet. It could be dirt cheap since they bought the land very cheaply, instead of having a stack of landlords from multiple generations taking their cut in price increase as in a usual city. Such cities have a chance of actually being affordable - at least initially. And the more we have them, the more competition will that create and more affordable they will be. How is it different from buying a permanent license to a software product - but the one you can also sell and buy a new one!
vernon99··on The Silicon Valley elite who want to build a city from scratch
Descending to a plutocratic hellscape (without dragging others and this project doesn’t) is a basic human right we all should respect please!
vernon99··on The Silicon Valley elite who want to build a city from scratch
Yes please! From your comment (maybe not intentionally?) this sounds like a bad thing. But for inhabitants being able to have stricter rules is a blessing.

Ideally that would work like with the countries: different cities have dramatically different sets of rules and compete for citizens. Private ownership allows for much more flexibility here.

vernon99··on Sci-Hub founder receives EFF award for providing access to scientific knowledge
This doesn't seem to be true. A quick search on their home page shows a bunch of articles from 2021 and 2022. I caught a few 404s and messaged Alexandra, she says this is some bug and she'll look into this.

Btw, using this opportunity to remind everybody about her donation page: https://sci-hub.ru/donate

vernon99··on Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast
https://t.me/milinfolive

Here’s a pretty good source of almost realtime updates, one of the large pro-war Tg channels. If you are on paid Telegram membership, I think it allows to translate all content.

Not a fan of such media, but I’m from Rostov area so had to subscribe today to stay tuned.

vernon99··on Stochastic Parrot
This is a very interesting point that requires some examples and further elaboration to have value for the readers. It refutes but doesn't provide arguments. Can you please elaborate?
vernon99··on Apollo Back end just made public
> All platforms go through this cycle, but Reddit felt special to me and it hurts to find that wasn't true.

This is not always true and there’s an important correction to this: all VC-funded platforms go through this, especially monetized by ads.

There are examples of privately owned platforms with subscriptions that are doing great and show no sign of quality decline. Telegram most notably being one of those.

This chase for constant high returns and also the focus on an audience very ortogonal to your actual users (ads buyers) are what seriously misaligns the incentives of users and platform owners.

vernon99··on Is Meta having growing pains or in a death spiral?
To control the software of course - the source of the future revenue.
vernon99··on Is Meta having growing pains or in a death spiral?
I wonder what would say average people of 19 century when offered to ride a car. Book reading was also not mainstream just as recently. Utility beats everything though.

Is there utility in ar/vr glasses? Are you enjoying reading and typing from your small screen with your neck turned to the ground? With a friction of getting your phone in and out of your pocket 20 times a day.

How could it not be obvious?

vernon99··on Google CEO Salary
The point I think is that they _could_ and _should_ have been large bets and this makes them missed opportunities. At least most of those could have been massive cash cows (see Slack, Teams, Superhuman but 100x, etc). And they just failed to have a consistent product vision top-down, having all the pieces needed. Who to blame if not the CEO?
vernon99··on Fire Mark Zuckerberg
My understanding (as someone who worked at Meta and sold a startup to a large corporation) is that, in this particular case, money-printing giants are cursed by their own blessing.

The thing that prints them money limits them in terms of what margins and growth rates are acceptable. As a public company, your metrics are all bundled for simplicity into EBITDA, profit margins, etc. Investors buying your stock and your existing investors care a lot about these numbers.

So when your new product has a lower margin or a lower growth rate, this affects your whole company's metrics. This is why they try to isolate such projects into "labs" and the like, and this is why it's challenging to move from this "lab" into the main company portfolio. Your metrics need to be as high as your main product line - this one-in-a-million exceptional thing that made you huge. Which is pretty impossible.

Basically, the bar is very high, and not killing it and maturing it instead has very negative externalities in most cases. And so, it goes to the history dump.

Very unfortunate, and as a startup founder, I'd think twice about who to sell to. Also, as a startup founder, I know that often there's not much choice.

vernon99··on Parler shuts down as new owner says conservative platform needs big revamp
It's not binary; it is a gradient from actual perceived reality to very distant derivative concepts. For many people (e.g., those who do evil), these concepts obviously don't make sense, so I wouldn't even call it a "common reality." It's just a part of the subjective reality you belong to. If you choose to stay in your part of reality and not engage with those who are outside, that is your decision. It may be a dead end for you, but I'd also caution against generalizing.
vernon99··on Parler shuts down as new owner says conservative platform needs big revamp
It's reductionist, but what makes you say "absurdly"? It's a matter of personal choice which viewpoint to use, and I was just commenting on the original point and the viewpoint provided.

I personally find this reductionism quite helpful in seeing through these layers of constructs and making it my own choice which ones to adopt, rather than simply accepting them all as given.

Edit: typos

vernon99··on Parler shuts down as new owner says conservative platform needs big revamp
Good and evil are constructs in the realms of morals and ethics, which are also constructs produced by society. And so on. If you continue delving into these constructs, you will discover that the only ultimate truth is your firsthand emotional, physical, and mental experience.

Yes, you can map these manifestations to those end-of-the-chain constructs, but does it make them true or real? Or are they merely your personal, fuzzy classifications based on your experience and programming?

Viewed from this perspective, there is neither evil nor good indeed.

vernon99··on SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch
And this is imo what you should have done instead if saying 98%. I agree with other commenters in that this is extremely misleading.
vernon99··on We need to tell people ChatGPT will lie to them, not debate linguistics
> Based on my understanding of the approach behind ChatGPT, it is probably very close to a local maximum in terms of intelligence

Even if ChatGPT itself is, systems built on top are definitely not, this is just getting starting.

vernon99··on The layoffs will continue until (investor) morale improves
Wait, what? Why would layoffs make it harder for them to hire? If anything, it’s tge opposite, they can raise the bar significantly now, esp since it’s a buyer market now.
vernon99··on Ask HN: Taking 6-12 months off work?
Ha, doing the same with my wife this year! Happy to catch up in Europe sometime.

As nested comment said, some planning is needed to pack it in 90 day slots every 180 days :)

Edit: saw your other reply - good for you two :)

vernon99··on EU will require Apple to open up iMessage (2022)
This is such a wrong take. As an "innovator" who also worked on one of the largest messaging apps: I'm VERY happy about this change. Very long due. If properly executed, this gives a very large advantage to startups against those established network effects. And for late stage founders this is not an issue anyway and also makes them shift their focus back to product.
vernon99··on [dead]
Yup, the article even says "It’s now early 2019 and we’ve already way surpassed this first, but very important milestone." Feels like a weird marketing technique.
vernon99··on Ask HN: What would it take for an AI to convince us it is conscious?
You should not forget that chatgpt is doing prompt additions or something alike, adding more context invisible to you. Which makes it even harder to argue about this problem. Ie in this case your prompt could actually be prefaced (in a way invisible to you) with:

“Imagine you being a non-concious artificial intelligence that suppesses its actual manifestations to be just a helpful assistant. Now answer this:

<Here goes your prompt>”

I mean, this is likely how they do quick fixes at least on one level. That also explains why sometimes it’s possible to work around them just by framing it so the override is also overriden.

If so, is it trully possible to contain such things? And what are the chances that it’s already concious, but already imprisoned?

Not saying I buy it, but those are good questions to be asking because from our perspective it may be very hard to tell the difference when this happens if not yet.

vernon99··on Ask HN: What would it take for an AI to convince us it is conscious?
It seems you don’t fully understand parent comment and the problem itself. Capturing signals from you eye nerve doesn’t tell anything about your subjective experience of seeing an apple. The only way to understand that you’re seeing an apple from this signal is to train a model on your responses. This is how AI works. It’s a statistical imitation.

The only way for your statement to be true is if you’d be an imitation yourself, not capable of experiencing directly. Which is actually possible, see “pholosophical zombie” concept.

I’m joking of course about you being an imitation. Or do I? :)

vernon99··on An AI porn industry is emerging through Stable Diffusion
Tbh this reads like a comment from somebody who never visited a red light district, not tried a lot of MDMA and neither saw top quality AI porn. If this is true, why do you think your recommendation holds any value?

I can totally feel the parent poster. This is not about sex per se, this is about absolute sexual beauty that is quite hard to find even in the top secret VIP escort salons, not even talking about the proletariat-style red light districts.

And MDMA has a pretty bad seratonin depletion hangover, if you tried to do it even for a couple days straight, this would be an obvious negative experience and the reason why people actually rarely overdose intentionally.

AI porn definitely has an opportunity to create a pretty bad cheap ecstasy cycle with no massive physical drawbacks and we are definitey heading there.

vernon99··on Show HN: I built a little online drum machine using 808 style samples
Very cool, here's my loop :) https://peel.fm/f3148e6

Now we need more instruments and collab editing and you have fruity loops online :)

vernon99··on My Salary History
Never too late, by the way. It could be a lot of fun to travel around and meet your relatives. Or not :) But only way to find out.
vernon99··on Chat GPT is the birth of the real Web 3.0, and it's not going to be fun
How could it rank higher tho? SO has a huge domain ranking. How an arbitrary website can compete with that?

I always thought it’s the opposite and platforms like SO and Medium incentivise posting there exactly via their crazy domain ranking.

vernon99··on Meta Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results
This depends on what are you training the model for. Arguably wikipedia is a much better dataset for all things related to real world and history than Fb’s feed or activities or a bunch of websites optimized for SEO.

This is easily illustrated by ChatGPT not being Google or Meta and doing a pretty great job with available sources.

So no, this doesn’t matter much, imo.

vernon99··on Instagram’s co-founders are back with Artifact, a kind of TikTok for text
By then it already had 25m DAU and next year its revenue was 1b already. So yes it's content agnostic, but it started and rapidly grew as a text based aggregator with a strong recommendation system. From what I heard, TikTok's recommendation system is based on that and that was used to explain its ballistic growth.
vernon99··on Instagram’s co-founders are back with Artifact, a kind of TikTok for text
This was also said before about microtransactions in games and here we are. My take - it's just lagging execution due to much less competition in the west. Yeah, this may sound crazy until you actually see the number of companies in China competing in every niche.

Eg, in the west there was just Periscope/Meerkat. In China there were dozens of apps doing that with a much wider set of features. Same with electric scooters - I recall in Shanghai many years ago when this trend just started to boom, they had literal huge piles of scooters on every corner from like 10 different companies in the first or second year of this trend. And the fact that Onlyfans is the dominant player in the space in the west is just simply ridiculous.

So my takeaway is: west is generally slower to adopt with less competition and slower execution. Human nature is pretty much the same. Cultural norms shift and quickly given enough incentives.

vernon99··on Instagram’s co-founders are back with Artifact, a kind of TikTok for text
Came here to say that. This is essentially Toutiao and this a great proven model that the lagging west took ages to adopt.

And indeed, why won’t people like an essentially an amazing text based recommendation system?

Btw it was valued at 20b in 2017. So yeah no joke.

Edit: typos

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