Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast
swiftcentre.org
swiftcentre.org
Edit:
mailto:hn@ycombinator.com
Is the link at the bottom.
For context, I’m not at all denying the invasion or how awful it is. I’m only saying there is extreme hyperbole at times in the same way there is about controversial political figures in the US
I could not care less what software engineers have to say on the matter.
Agree we shouldn't lose focus but this seems rare and important enough to be worth discussing.
From the guidelines of what is off-topic "Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon."
I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?
The fog of war over Ukraine does continue to frustrate. You really wish there was live, perfect info sources to keep you in the know, but even ten years from now there are sure to be questions.
Edit: just got through the most recent episode and want to warn that it’s a bit crazy conspiratorial, but interesting…
Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co
But Wagner forces are around 25 000. It is not clear how loyal the bulk of them are towards Prigoshin personally (I have my doubts) but many russian russians share the hate for the MoD.
And there is solid evidence, that they control some area.
Or really any other russian source. Russian militar blogger telegram channels, etc.
(It is a good habit btw. to always also have a look at the opposing side of view)
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagne...
Also I do not see, where tanks on the road to moscow were fake. It was the russian way of doing politics.
Tanks on the road to Moscow could be used to give an impression of a coup. For all we know Putin set this up to expose any rogue elements looking to oust him.
I do not know which accounts or news agencies you find reputable, so I do not know which one to link so you trust it. But you yourself should know which journals or accounts you trust.
It is doable. With that strategy, I get more cautious news, not the hottest of the hot stuff, but I am pretty sure thing is happening now.
[1] MOD https://t.me/mod_russia https://t.me/mod_russia_en
[2] Wagner https://t.me/orchestra_w
[3] Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova
Putin doesn't care about diplomatic relations and almost every reputable media has fled the country.
Here’s a pretty good source of almost realtime updates, one of the large pro-war Tg channels. If you are on paid Telegram membership, I think it allows to translate all content.
Not a fan of such media, but I’m from Rostov area so had to subscribe today to stay tuned.
Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin.
In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.
[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...
It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.
His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself.
But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.
I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use.
Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.
My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
"Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president."
https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...
But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect.
What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection.
The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts.
But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car).
It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.
But some people had advance plans to create pressure in the knowledge that it might lead to disorder, and then exploit the uncertainty in the moment. It could really all have happened, and it hinges on small moments of bravery that are well documented now but that many of those involved seem hesitant to admit to in public, which shows you that the landscape of threat still exists.
(I appreciate that I said "exploit the uncertainty" but I meant more the sort of news media confusion, unclear facts on the ground sort of uncertainty -- fast moving events)
Firstly: the Capitol violence wasn't a coup (or putsch) in and of itself. They had no organised plans to seize direct power. It was an armed mob assault, and everyone there knew what their job was: to stop the count. Some of them even went home when they realised they'd achieved it.
Second: it wasn't really stochastic in an important sense.
Stochastic terrorism is what I understand you to be alluding to by analogy. That is usually considered to be e.g. regular lone-wolf or small attacks that are implicitly encouraged by not being condemned. There is no organising thread or support network (unlike e.g. Al Qaeda and the Taliban).
The people encouraging that stuff don't know what specific outcomes there will be to exploit, but they have reason to suspect an increase in exploitable outcomes and they do nothing to stop it (or better, they are sort of notably half-hearted and equivocal in stopping it).
But in this case, the rally was long-planned and there was plenty of evidence online about who it was attracting. And all the other threads in the autogolpe I mentioned are planned and organised by a small group of people. This is widely understood -- the challenge is proving it in a court.
And it's not "stochastic" if you stand in front of that known crowd of people who have turned up to "stop the steal", and you tell them to "fight like hell". There's no defence that it is metaphorical, especially given everything we know he'd been advised. He (repeatedly) tried to get armed supporters allowed into the main crowd. "They're not here to hurt me!"
Almost nobody stands up in front of a mob and issues direct, unambiguous commands. You do that with a team or an army. Not with a mob. That's not the true power of that situation. You stand up in front of a mob, you use dogwhistles and the mob does what you want. Because that means you can try plausible deniability, which might keep you personally out of jail to do it all over again.
Trump is disordered but he is cunning; he knew he had an armed crowd out there, and he riled them up. And Giuliani literally has form for inciting a riot (of police officers!) so he knew what was going to happen too. They had to have an idea what the specific immediate time-sensitive outcome would be, and it is one they desired. That is not "stochastic". It's directed.
(Edited considerably, haven't had coffee yet)
But he's a madman whose organisation has committed atrocities in several countries; if he is Russia's hope for an end to Putin, that is not a good scenario.
This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.
(Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
> Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself.
To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".
>He is alleged to have founded the Wagner Group, with his own call-sign reportedly being Wagner
Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak.
Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real.
But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
Incredible.
For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things.
I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.
I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?
If they don't then it's all over for Putin.
Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
Air power will be the key.
A modern Russian meme is "to bomb Voronezh". A typical joke went like: "Obama ordered new sanctions on Russia; Putin retaliated by bombing Voronezh". Voronezh, a quaint provincial town south off Moscow, is unremarkable by itself, an Anytown, Russia. Bombing Voronezh is a hyperbola describing the favorite game of Russian ruler, - to punish his citizens for his own mistakes. T
Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU
The (very few) videos that I've seen look like Russian state vehicles.
And I see that a few started blaming USA, Israel and nazis for this.
You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational..
True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations such an action would call for is unimaginable.
When you put rational people in extremely chaotic situations, they tend to make very irrational choices.
As of just a few hours ago we just entered a world where the following is an actual possibility, albeit an unlikely possibility: Prigozhin closes in, creating an existential crises for Putin and his inner circle. They believe this is a western backed coup where defeat isn't just personal but also defeat for Russia. Putin & his inner circle are put in a position to consider retaliation under the context of a rapidly deteriorating existential crises.
I'm a voracious consumer of history and I can tell the one thing you learn from history is how a set of seemingly unrelated harmless dominos change the world overnight whether if its the death of a duke from a second tier power or the ambition of a failed artist.
only if maybe Russians will interpret this as super matcho/alpha , to sacrifice entire cities including their future to cleanup your own shit.
Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
Meaning, it would be exactly the same humanitarian disaster as Russia is comiting elsewhere right now. Only difference is that a.) nationality of innocent victims b.) event that harms Russia itself as opposed event that harms countries around Russia.
I guess this will suffice: a nuclear assault by the Russian state, on Russian soil, is not "two killers shooting eachother"; whether they're aiming for Wagner group is irrelevant, since it would also kill thousands if not millions of civilians. Hence, it is an act of genocide.
I thought this was completely obvious, so I left it implied, but clearly things need to be spelled out to the nth degree around here.
What point are you even trying to make here?
> Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
I'm vilifying their leadership. But I'm still amazed there is no revolt there
Do you think the nukes would hit the Kreml? Or potentially millions of innocent civilians?
Note: not advocating for a nuclear genocide, but I do feel that citizens become culpable if they are allowing their country to stop on others and they aren't protesting or emigrating (if possible)
But like you say, genocide is never justified, no matter what. And that was mainly what I was reacting to.
Also russia is already far on genocide scale looking by their actions in current war
Oh my gosh. Did having to wear masks in public and self-isolating make you a badass on the Internet?
J.R.R. Tolkien, 1944, in a letter to his son, commenting on British war-time propaganda.
Offtopic:
Regarding your Ask HN thread - some years ago I used (well, tried to) a small smartphone stylus which 'docked' in the headphone socket so it would be always with the phone. It wasn't good for me, because it wasn't sensitive enough for sketching, but overall it was fine for navigating the UI.
If your phone has no 3.5 jack but you use a case it can be attached to the case.
Maybe you can try to use a notebook style case, so your palms would sweat the case, not the phone and therefore you would have a bit less trouble with false touches.
Eg: https://www.amazon.com/x-girl-P-TPS-XG1-Collaboration-Stylus...
Hah, well thank you! Luckily the hyperhidrosis has since passed, since it was just a temporary side effect from medication. But I'm definitelly gonna get one of these anyway, because it will definitely be an issue again sometime in the future.
Sure. But let also admit that the support for Ukrainian war and actual ongoing genocide in Ukraine is high in Russia.
Oh dropping nuclear bombs on place-where-I-don’t-live is so funny hahahaha it’s not like nuclear weapons have been a genuine threat since WWII and still is hahaha.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/nuclear-...
As unpredictable and irrational as he's become, there's some comfort in Putin's track record of staying off the button. I really hope these events don't cause him to start getting YOLOy
Given the fog of war, I am taking a wait and see approach.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-hi...
Long term it will lead to substantial power movement.
Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true).
But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly.
And the current options for Prigoshin are
a) become a marty
b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison)
c) defect to Ukraine
He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge.
In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them.
Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.
I don't see that happening.
But he knows, that he will confirm in the eye of the russian public, that he is a traitor then. But officially he already is and his loyal forces can never take Moscow.
Doing so will make an already paper-tiger of an army/bureaucracy even worse off, as paranoia and shows of loyalty will be paramount, not effective fighting ability. Think North Korea, but even more so.
Whatever command structure of the army is left will have even worse of a time in Ukraine and, especially, in Crimea.
Vova is running out of cards to play, Wagner having now taken some double-digit percent of his remaining deck.
When Ukraine pushes into Crimea, the chances of nukes going off goes up a lot now.
I still would be surprised, if Prigoshin would die of natural causes.
In either case it shows how weak Putin is, that he has to let him go, after they did an armed uprising.
If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.
The core problem is the poorly managed war; Wagner'd be unlikely to rebel if the war was going well and everyone was satisfied with the Russian leadership.
I agree with your perspective that certain aspects of the war weren't managed well by Russia, but disagree that war isn't going well for Russia - they appear to have achieved 80% of their strategic objectives by annexing Crimea and bordering areas of Ukraine, and holding on to it while Ukranian counter-offensives have failed to dislodge the Russians. In fact military experts in both US (Ukraine’s Chances of Victory in 2023 are Vanishingly Small - https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/ukraines-chances-of-vict... ) and India (Final Battle In Russia-Ukraine War? - https://youtu.be/D0oA-Y5eTs4 ) agree that the chances of a Ukraine counter-offensive being successful are quite low.
Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?
after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?