treis

Everybody talks about this stuff all the time

That's pretty far away from where we're at. If things do get that far it's not going to be a problem. Eventually the robots will murder us in our sleep and our worries will be over.

ChatGPT still says walk but adds:

>The main reasons to drive such a short distance would be if you're bringing the car specifically to be washed, carrying something heavy, or the weather or walking conditions make it impractical.

>If your goal is to get your car washed, you'll need the car there—so driving makes sense. If you're just going to talk to someone at the car wash or check it out, walking is probably faster.

Could you have predicted in 1920 that in 2020 that 48% of the country would stop farming and some would be programmers?

There's not going to be much additional poor unemployed people. They're going to get different jobs.

Enough that it's effectively infinite, yes. Especially if we are imagining a world where subways cost 1/20th of what they do today.

Demand and primary resources are effectively infinite.

What is?

>The construction worker it replaces isn't going to start managing a team of robots construction robots

Some of them will. You've slashed construction labor cost to 5% of what it was before. With that and a similar reduction throughout the supply chain means we're going to start building a lot more stuff.

Obviously I'm not immune from the anxiety everyone feels and it's going to be bad for some people. That doesn't change that historically the jobs aren't from programmer to cashier. They're from shoveling shit or screwing caps on toothpaste tubes to software engineering.

The trajectory of the West has been good for a long time and the rate of improvement is increasing.

This isn't how the economy works at all. We're not all unemployed because farms mechanized. We're not all unemployed because factories automated. We won't all be unemployed if AI takes over white collar work.

This tracks and IMHO some of the disconnect between technology innovation and productivity is that engineers are soaking up the excess by working less. They're not banging out more code/functionality because by and large that isn't rewarded

That is one confusing chart

There's at least two markets here. Consumer ad driven and worker augmentation markets. Likely a 3rd as a backend infrastructure provider to a bunch of value add companies.

I think Google has caught up enough to certainly be a player in the consumer ad driven market.

I also don't think only one foundation model adds up. Now that the trail is blazed a dozen companies can likely make a good enough model. The question is if there's a moat to make it winner take all

Feels like everyone should be on one hand. On the other hand it also feels like a massive recalibration of what companies can/should do. They spend massive amounts of money on AWS, Datadog, GitHub, CircleCi, et al. If it becomes easier to host/roll your own it's a big increase in the demand for engineers.

Ultimately software is everything these days and the economics make the demand insatiable. We've gone through many cycles of "X" but on computers/web/mobile. There's going to be a massive amount of "X" but with AI companies that will need engineers.

Or at least this is what I tell myself to sleep at night.

This entire narrative is just made up. Managers know not to reward spending. At best you had some tracking to see who was using it and encouragement for those that aren't to start.

My God what do you do to your feta?

That doesn't sound like very few stores in walking distance.

And yes things have drastically changed in the 10+ years or whenever growing up was.

It's not literally 0 but for most casual users it is. Programmers are heavier users and the ones that have 10 agents going wild are even more so. In that case the cost is above 0 but economies of scale means the effect is the same.

Go on...

I think this misses the forest for the trees. Working with ChatGPT is eerily similar to working with offshore Indian devs back in my enterprise days. Productive if guided explicitly but if let run wild there's lots of WTF moments.

LLMs are likely to replace outsourced devs because your employees that know the context can use LLMs to do what offshore devs did before.

Historically the winners in software have a flywheel that turns faster with more users. Facebook the more of your friends on it the better the product was. Google tracked how long users were on pages to improve search.

The frontier models are going to win that way. They won't feed your code back into the system but they will track which code you keep and what code gets a "try again claude".

They're not going to lose on price. No consumer software ever has because ultimately it's not that expensive relative to salary and the marginal cost is 0.

It's not really true. Almost every neighborhood in Atlanta has a cluster of shops or food hall kind of thing to walk to.

It's true that it's a massive lifestyle leap to go to no car. But walk to the park. Walk to get ice cream. Ride bike to school are all easily doable in atlanta.

The system doesn't stick to principles enshrined in the constitution and law. Often or usually it does. Certainly not always. Theoretically there are other humans to force them to when they stray but that's gated behind 10s of thousands to appeal and is up against a system designed first to protect itself.

It also ignores the reality of going to a jury. Yes you have the right to trial by jury. But the price to exercise that right is to risk an much much more severe punishment, a lot of money, and a lot of time.

There's also tremendous upside here. Think getting a letter from your landlord withholding $2,000. Upload it to JudgeGPT for your jurisdiction and instantaneously find out it's legal.

I'd still trust ChatGPT over the median recruiter.

And ChatGPT has the benefit of being able to do 10-100x as many screens as with a human. Even if it's grossly wrong half the time I'm ahead on volume.

Have you ever successfully appealed a failed HR screen?

IME the reality of the modern world that there's little genuine appeal or reconsideration anymore. There is some sort of process but it's Byzantine and if we're talking the government, expensive.

I guess everyone has had different lives but between humans and algorithms I take the algorithm every time.

Everyone is feeling it out but the vast majority of spend has been subscription based. Some outliers may have used a massive amount of tokens but companies didn't pay for that.

That VC funded gravy train is likely coming to an end. But fortunately there are also reasonably efficient models now so that the tokenmaxxers can still make the (much cheaper) tokens go brrrr.

No, I mean they're constantly crawling the web. That gets fed into the next model but it's also searchable by the current one. For example, if you ask chatgpt what the latest shooting at the white house was it will tell you about the one from two days ago.

ChatGPT has effectively assimilated Google search. You can tell it to look up the latest version of the zig docs and do whatever.

Please. These are the same people that force their employees to use Microsoft teams because slack is $5 an employee a month. They're not going to sit idly by while employees burn thousands a month in tokens.

Again, that there is no evidence of a burial and them explicitly stating that it was deliberately buried are not mutually contradictory things.