LLMs are likely to replace outsourced devs because your employees that know the context can use LLMs to do what offshore devs did before.
I saw it’s thinking tokens said something along the lines of “I have implemented it correctly but the test is failing. I’ll update the tests so the pipeline passes”
I’ve had it assume I meant the folder multiple times :/
Request: “manual step X should not be part of the automated build script”
Fulfilled as: build script is now split in two. X is still done as a manual step in between. Rather than prompting and waiting for it to be done, the documentation and scripts no longer mention X.
Part poorly written requirements, part implementing under pressure, and part lack of engineering discipline.
The main issue is catching stuff like this early enough to course-correct. Differences in time zone, language and cultural norms can make that a challenge, all of which LLMs have the advantage in.
Outsourced can be anywhere and when you're referring to US, anywhere else is cheaper. Commonwealth devs for example are at least 20% the cost of a US dev. That 20% more than covers the cost of access to a frontier model that this dev could drive.
Thinking of LLMs in human units is super strange and if you wish to consider the economics you have to also account for the lowering of barriers to entry.
I think where were missing each other is that the human agent can also be outsourced. Not all outsourcing involves rote tasks and the lowest skilled workers. The difference between the mean US senior dev salary and everywhere else is large enough to cover a manageable LLM cost. So there's no reason why a company looking to cut costs need stop at the lowest rung to makeup for LLM expenditure.
Another issue is that there are cultural barriers. People in India or elsewhere may say "yes" when they really mean "hmm, probably not" because saying no to a superior could be considered rude.
If you replace a big team with a small team and LLMs, you are actually saving money overall because LLMs are much cheaper than humans. But you may actually need more skilled humans than previously, not less skilled ones, because they need to be able to manage a large volume of code being generated. LLMs are not good news for outsourced developers. They are the opposite: a cheaper substitute for the grunt work that they had been providing.
Simply put, if you want frontier models at API prices, you can make up for that expense by hiring non-US talent. Many who have a good command of English and are willing to overlap US hours. There's plenty in LatAm alone. Whether or not that's a good choice for a business isn't relevant to the point I was making.
Where you appear to be stuck is that you think outsourcing is only workers with poor English who do grunt work. It's a rather myopic view of the situation to be polite.
but for OP's use case, people with some capital and many skills who need additional help, AI is solving a problem in a way that was not solvable before, while improving on coordination abilities and coordination velocity. Offshore developers do not come back into play here.
Latin American countries have become more popular for offshoring lately as you can get cheaper than US rates but still have the same or similar time zones.
Offshore Indian devs make sense when you can have a large Indian division so you can amortize communication infrastructure/process management over a lot of heads, and you're building for international customers so you're not paying an English -> X tax inherently.
And outsourcing certainly became a thing though not in the way everyone predicted. There are far more software engineers in the US today than there were in 2004.
Just recently I asked a dev there for a POC of a feature with decent specificity and ended up with about 8k LOC of spaghetti. I re-wrote it later in a few hundred. This is about in-line with my career experience.
I've had a few standout devs there but it does feel like a lot are putting in the bare minimum or are just working really far outside of their abilities.
What evidence is there of the quality of Indian devs specifically?
One signal I'd expect to see, for example, would be success in programming competitions. Here's the list of winners of the IOI competition [1] - India has won 3 times.
Meanwhile, Turkey has won 4 times, Estonia has won 5 times, and Vietnam has won 22 times!
Why should we suspect that there are more or better developers in Indian than in any of the countries that has produced more winners??
[1] https://stats.ioinformatics.org/countries/?sort=medals_desc
That's true but irrelevant. Nothing is "the same" as anything else. My question was, what evidence is there that offshore Indian devs are of high quality. One expected signal with be ...that they demonstrate their programming skill.
> these countries have way more people trying to use these competitions as a gateway to good jobs
That's ridiculous!! You're claiming that Turkey, with a population of under a million, has "more people trying to use these competitions" than India, with a population in the billions????
> many good engineers emigrate to higher-income countries
Okay, but the claim was, "offshore Indian devs are good" - that cohort (i.e. the ones INSIDE INDIA) excludes the cohort you're talking about (emigrate to higher-income contries).
So, unless your point is, "yes, I agree with you, there is no evidence that offshore (still in India) devs are of high quality, and the reason is that the good ones emigrated" I think this statement is irrelevant.
I work for a global corporation. We have offices in India. For the technical professionals I deal with the wage differential is maybe 30-50% and is actually quite a bit less than the cost of living difference. My personal experience is that there is a tendency for them to massively inflate their qualifications and level of experience to a point that Americans would call fraud. The only kind of people who think this is a good idea are people like Larry Fink, and I would attribute his motives to greed and malice, probably an equal parts.
Not because all Indian devs are bad (this is of course absolutely not true), but most of the good ones are either no longer in India or working in India but for something more prestigious and interesting than an offshoring shop