387 karma · joined January 28, 2015
No it isn't. P(x AND y) = P(x)P(y) only in the special case where x and y are independent. Unlike fuzzy logic, probabilistic logic is not truth functional.
Yeah right :)
But for subjective belief they're still useful. Consider the problem of diagnosing a system with components that fail in rare cases. However we have no idea about failure probabilities. We can then use ranks. A diagnosis for some observed behaviour would then be the least surprising (i.e., lowest ranked) failure state that explains the observed behaviour. This is also the reason for least-surprising-first execution: the most important prediction or hypothesis is the most likely one and thus the least surprising one. There are some concrete examples in the paper which demonstrate this.
I am currently thinking about combining probabilities with ranks so that you can reason about both kinds of uncertainty in the same model. This could be implemented using a programming language that supports both ranked choice statements and probabilistic choice statements.
I don't disagree with your point about probability. However, there are various alternatives to probability which can be more appropriate for certain applications. For instance, with degrees of surprise (or ranks as they are called) you do not need to know exact probabilities, although the price you pay is that the scale is more coarse grained. If you reason about events that are either very probable or very improbable, then degrees of surprise are easier to work with than probabilities.
There's also a computational benefit. Execution of a ranked program is done much like a non-deterministic program where choice points execute "least surprising first". Compare that with the sampling techniques necessary in probabilistic programming that do not even provide exact results.
The Z80000 seems to have been a very obscure microprocessor. Even more so than the Z8000. What was the Z80000 system you worked with?
This couldn’t be further from the truth. There is a wealth of logics that have been developed and studied within philosophy, that aim to formalize various philosophical concepts. See modal logics, deontic logics, logics about knowledge and belief, and so on.
I think the point is not that this statement is incorrect, but rather that it doesn’t accurately convey the severity of the situation. More accurate would be: “manipulation of their audience is their product”.
Definitely not. The term conditional is used for statements of the form “if X then Y”, in computer science as well as logic/philosophy.