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the_watcher

4,769 karma · joined March 18, 2012

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the_watcher··on Sheryl Sandberg stepping down as Facebook COO
What I read was that she will be leaving in the fall, but they are immediately starting to transition her team, which is exactly what I'd expect.
the_watcher··on Sheryl Sandberg stepping down as Facebook COO
Completely agree with this, matches my experience as well.
the_watcher··on Why isn't there a replication crisis in math?
Thanks for this, cryptography is a good example where this could be a problem.
the_watcher··on Why isn't there a replication crisis in math?
The social science and medical replication crisis seems like it would be far more impactful than a mathematics crisis, right? Politicians, policy-makers, doctors, etc. all make decisions based on potentially flawed or outright incorrect studies in a way that I don't think is true for the equivalents in math, simply because there aren't decisions and policies up for debate related to much of them (if I am wrong about this, please correct me).
the_watcher··on AirPods don't “just work”
Annoyance 4 is the one that really bothers me (although to be fair, I have Beats Studio Buds that have exactly the same issue). Also, they get _really_ dirty and are very irritating to clean. Really not sure how Apple hasn't produced a good cleaning tool (or at least identified one and listed it in the store).
the_watcher··on IRS Will Soon Require Selfies for Online Access
I had to use ID.me for something earlier this year (I forget what), and while it was not a terrible experience technically, I literally had to shave off my beard to complete it, as my drivers license photo is me with a freshly shaved face.
the_watcher··on Skillsoft Buys Codecademy for $525M
I discovered Codecademy in late fall 2011, while miserable in my first semester of law school. I had no idea how to code, and had only found it after stumbling on PG's essays for the first time (which led me to google "learn to program"). I dropped out of law school after a year and ended up a self-taught data scientist. Codecademy was only a part of my journey, but you kicked it off. Congrats, and thank you.
the_watcher··on Death by Coconut
I recently read Cryptonomicon, and there's a moment in the book where a Japanese (IIRC) soldier is instantly able to tell that someone is new to the south Pacific because they're standing under a coconut tree.
the_watcher··on The Great SPAC Scam: SPACs a Great Deal for Sponsors, but Not Others
Byrne Hobart noted recently that SPACs are interesting for spinouts, which matches their history as a vehicle designed to take something public that would have trouble in a traditional IPO process.
the_watcher··on Bitcoin Price Tumbles After Wall Street Selloff
Are you able to share how someone could see that this is what happened? I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, I am genuinely interested.
the_watcher··on Bitcoin Price Tumbles After Wall Street Selloff
I'm find myself agreeing with this more and more. Packy McCormick's framing as "The Great Online Game" seems like the best way to approach crypto and web3, to me. Go in for enough to play, if you're interested (it's honestly pretty fun), but you better have pretty extreme conviction if you're risking anything you can't afford to lose (I don't).
the_watcher··on The Frenchman who pioneered the modern mercenary industry
That book is fantastic. I found it via Byrne Hobart, who accurately pointed out that it's as much about project management as it is about a coup.
the_watcher··on Steve Jobs emails Eric Schmidt (2007)
Found this from 2014: https://techcrunch.com/2014/03/24/sheryl-sandberg-facebook-r...
the_watcher··on I like e-readers now
This is pretty similar to my POV. The front light is huge for reading in bed (or anywhere dark, like a plane). Also, you carry essentially every book in print with you, everywhere. But the biggest reason I find myself reading on my Kindle despite preferring real books is that on a Kindle, I can start reading that new book now.
the_watcher··on Tyler Cowen is a curator of talent
That's why I mentioned Byrne Hobart and David Perell, two people I regularly read and built businesses partially funded by EV.
the_watcher··on Tyler Cowen is a curator of talent
You should email him and ask him if he's considered this. Of all funders, he seems like one of the most likely to consider doing this (and given some of the people he funds, it may actually be possible to run some sort of experiment while minimizing moral hazard). I'm fairly certain he'd at least answer the question though.
the_watcher··on Tyler Cowen is a curator of talent
While it's true he will give grants to accomplished people, he also makes far more grants to smart young people (often from non-Western, lower income nations) that are _not_ accomplished, for things like "general career development". People like Byrne Hobart and David Perell launched their writing careers via EM. And even in the list you linked to, there's a 15 year old and a high school junior.

Regarding success rate, his explicit goal is to fund extremely ambitious people and projects that would otherwise struggle or not get funding at all. This could mean funding the most speculative or risky (or highly societally beneficial but lower financial return) ideas from already accomplished people or funding talented people that would struggle to get funding otherwise (due to age, access to capital, etc). I believe (and I think TC agrees) that there are likely many people and projects whose course could be substantially altered for the better if given access to a reasonably small amount of money early enough to convince the person to work on it full time.

the_watcher··on Tyler Cowen is a curator of talent
The episode with John McWhorter is my favorite example of this - McWhorter is audibly delighted by Cowen's questions about linguistics.
the_watcher··on Tyler Cowen is a curator of talent
He regularly says something like "my superpower is that I respond to all of my emails". And from what it seems, he truly does.
the_watcher··on I Fired Myself
Yea, the first thing I learned was that nuts are an excellent snack if you stick to the serving size, but the serving size is shockingly small and easy to _blow_ past. I ended up just not buying them anymore, too easy to eat half a bag as a snack.
the_watcher··on I Fired Myself
Minimizing added sugar/processed carbs while at home (mostly ate what I wanted when out to eat with spouse, made slightly healthier choices with friends), stopping all drinking outside of special occasions (weddings, anniversary's, birthdays), and exercising 3x/week (using Fitbod) led me to lose 25 pounds in ~8 weeks. My main cheats were dark chocolate and a weekly trip to In-N-Out.

I didn't need to lose a ton of weight but I had some elevated liver enzymes and my doctor was mildly concerned about fatty liver disease so I looked for the easiest changes for me to make. The biggest lifestyle changes were no more almond lattes (almost all non-dairy options are sweetened) and eating a ton of eggs instead of a daily breakfast sandwich.

the_watcher··on In California, a journey to the end of the road: the Salton Sea
I grew up within an easy drive of the Salton Sea and had the same reaction: it's a pretty sad and gross sea, and it's a tragedy for the people who live there, but it's not a Mad Max wasteland (seriously, Indio is a 20 minute drive away). I don't know much about Slab City though.
the_watcher··on Reporters are leaving newsrooms for newsletters
About a year ago, I stumbled on Substack's page that shows writers what they'd make, net of fees based on number of subscribers * price. 400 subscribers at $10/month works out to ~37,000/year. That's not a way to get rich, but it is almost exactly the US median income, and not far off the media journalist salary.[0] If you're willing to write well, reliably, the math of paid newsletters seems pretty friendly for making an ok living.

[0] https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Journalist/Salary

the_watcher··on Why it’s hard to kill the Bloomberg terminal (2019)
I was hoping this would be by Byrne Hobart! If you haven't checked it out, he writes daily at diff.substack.com and is up there with Ben Thompson and Matt Levine in terms of quality.
the_watcher··on Concorde ‘B’ (2014)
The government doesn't bankroll air travel, at least not in the same way. I believe the quoted statement is referring to propping up the prices of flights via the pre-deregulation era. The government no doubt supports airlines in plenty of other ways, but the mechanism has changed, as have the behaviors it incentivizes.
the_watcher··on Ask HN: Ways to generate income when you're at home without pay?
The same reason resellers exist in pretty much all industries: The buyer doesn't actually care who they purchase from. When you're a reseller, in many ways your true customer is the vendor you are reselling, who are simply purchasing the service of customer acquisition.
the_watcher··on Show HN: Fantasy Congress – a fantasy sports website for politics
My reaction was basically "this is emblematic of a whole lot of the problems seemingly endemic to our current politics, but at the same time, this also accurately represents what our politics has become, and there's real value in holding up the mirror."
the_watcher··on How to prepare for losing your programming job
I don't even acknowledge it. I just say something like "Just wanted to let you know that I'm on the market, are you free for a chat?"
the_watcher··on How to prepare for losing your programming job
The only thing I use email tags/folders for is to tag recruiters. Last time I looked for a job (in September), I just ranked the companies in order of my interest, and went down the list. 80% of the recruiters were happy to hear from me (even those who I had ignored)
the_watcher··on Twitter Will Allow Employees to Work at Home Forever
I disagree that this is a likely outcome. For many people, this is a worst of both worlds - still requires all the costs of living within commuting distance of your employer (particularly for SFBA and NYC) and likely shrinks the average size/perks of the office you commute to. Partial remote doesn't seem to solve any problem in a way that is any better than the status quo.
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