328 karma · joined January 9, 2015
Seems appropriate.
This surprised me. I had thought that S&P 500 was an objective list of large cap stocks, without subjective decisions about which companies to include.
Restaurants will remain available, but will movie theaters? They were already being disrupted by streaming services.
I agree that new Senate conventions could cover these cases.
Of course before going this route, check with a reputable source.
Lying erodes public trust.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecastin...
The idea is to make lots of time-limited, falsifiable predictions with percentage estimates attached and check your track record.
I hope the public conversation will shift towards a culture of wearing face covers and having temperature checks and that governments will mobilize to make it happen. The status quo can't hold for 18 months while we test the vaccines.
The idea of Polar is also intriguing. I found a visual bug on your page: