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skolos

1,603 karma · joined September 22, 2008

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skolos··on Tesla Sales Fall Off a Cliff Globally, Including Germany, Australia, and China
They did operate on a "continuous refresh" basis. However, it mostly stopped for almost 2 years now. Other than HW4 I don't think anything else is different between current models and their iterations 2 years ago.

Edit: mostly speaking about Model Y, as Model 3 had actual refresh recently.

skolos··on Microsoft is bringing Python to Excel
Here you go: https://blog.adaptiverisk.com/post/2023-08-22-dataslicer/ Calculations are local, not in the cloud.
skolos··on Volkswagen’s ID. 2ALL Is a $26,000 EV Hatchback You’d Want to Drive
> shit build quality

That's old news. If build quality is your only concern, I suggest you to check them again. They supposedly improved build quality significantly after initial rollout of M3. As a data point: my family owned and drove 6 different Teslas over last 3 years - we did not have build quality (or any other) issues with any of them. All recent horror stories you heard are because of current Tesla scale and media negative bias against the company - you don't hear similar stories from other manufacturers.

skolos··on Ford CEO says EVs will be sold 100% online with nonnegotiable price
Last two years used Tesla prices were higher than new ones. You need to wait up to a year to get new Tesla though. So you could actually make some money while driving newest versions of cars.
skolos··on Ford CEO says EVs will be sold 100% online with nonnegotiable price
> the company optimizes delivery numbers of cars sold by sacrificing quality control

How do you know this? Did you see their internal data? There are lots of anecdotes going around about Tesla's quality. However, with all the TeslaQ it is hard to believe that there is real correlation between anecdotes and data. Here are my anecdotes - I owned 6 Teslas over last several years. Not one of them had any QC issues. I had one service done because I hit tire debris and front break dust shield started making noises. Tesla fixed that for me quickly with no charge. As for the data - during earnings calls they mentioned that they do pay close attention to their customer experience data and they had period of time where service was lagging. But they started addressing this issue and saw improvements. The way they are growing I do believe they need to keep close eye on customer experience, but looks like they understand that themselves and use data to make sure they are on top of this. Unfortunately there's not much reliable independent data to have better understanding of this issue.

Add: The intent of my comment was to ask if parent info is based on specific data or just anecdotes. As an example, I gave my own anecdotes and mentioned that they are not reliable correlation to the data. Somehow the responses I've got are all about anecdotes, mine or others, also some personal judgement of my ability to appreciate cars or judgment of my life circumstances that required me to have these many Teslas. Can we get back to discussing the main point I'm making - do we have data to make any of these judgements?

skolos··on Two-minute battery changes push India’s delivery riders to switch to e-scooters
It does work: NIO does it (they have 700 battery swap stations already). CATL also announced that they will produce swappable car batteries.

I, myself, don't see how this can be more competitive than superchargers. But I do see that some customers would like to have this option.

skolos··on Two-minute battery changes push India’s delivery riders to switch to e-scooters
They did try it in 2013, but abandoned the idea: https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event
skolos··on ICANN's rejection of Ukraine's request to sever Russia from the internet [pdf]
How Russian people would know about this? You are underestimating efficiency of Russian propaganda machine. Russian government does not shy away from inflicting damage onto Russian people and pointing finger to the West.
skolos··on Putin orders Russian peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine's two breakaway regions
Interesting point. How would you resolve this chalantly? 144 million people who probably will struggle to purchase their next iPhone vs 44 million people many of whom might die, loose all property and homes. What is a good way to resolve this in your opinion?
skolos··on Putin orders Russian peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine's two breakaway regions
I bet the polls will show overwhelming support - after 8 years of wall to wall Russian propaganda and extermination of opposition most think Putin is their savior from Fascist Ukrainians. (Source: I have relatives who still live there)
skolos··on Will it rot my students' brains if they use Mathematica? (2002)
I am using a lot of Numpy and Pandas at work and hate them. When I come home I open Mathematica and enjoy every minute of it. It is much more polished, consistent and faster than anything in Python land.

The only place where Python is better if you need to share your code - not everyone has Mathematica license.

skolos··on Part of Windows 11 is a revamped Windows Subsystem for Linux
Without "the best" the title reads to me as that they somehow removed chunk of original Windows and replaced it with WSL. That's why I came to this topic. I thought to myself - really - so they now replacing windows code with Linux? Original title is clear and not clickbaity.
skolos··on Why in the world would you own bonds?
This is almost 150 years of data. There were regimes with very different macroeconomic conditions (great depression, wars). However I do agree with you that there is a chance that we will see something even more exotic.
skolos··on Why in the world would you own bonds?
For me this type of analysis is always suspicious because it doesn't consider timing. How do I know that when I buy stocks I'm not buying at a peak, or when I need to sell them I'm not going to sell at the bottom. So I ran an analysis [1] where I just used random timing and checked what distribution would be. Turns out if you are long term investor (> 10 years holding period) it is more beneficial to hold stocks than bonds.

"Even if you had to sell your stocks at the bottom of the Great Depression, but held them for more than 20 years before that, you would not suffer a loss in value of your portfolio"

[1] https://www.investingrus.com/blog/safest-bet/

skolos··on Why in the world would you own bonds?
Your point is anecdotal. I actually ran the analysis and found that if you are long term investor - stocks beat bonds hands down. See it here: https://www.investingrus.com/blog/safest-bet/

"Even if you had to sell your stocks at the bottom of the Great Depression, but held them for more than 20 years before that, you would not suffer a loss in value of your portfolio"

skolos··on Two days with Volkswagen’s electric ID.4
We sold both of our gas cars and got Tesla (don’t need two cars right now). We are doing more road trips (1k miles or more) right now than ever. Teslas are awesome on long drives (mainly due to autopilot).
skolos··on Electric cars are coming fast – is the nation’s grid up to it?
The same article I linked discusses model X that had battery replaced under warranty at more than 300k km. The reason for the replacement was not battery degradation. Here's another article showing graph for up to 200k miles. Looks like Teslas holding capacity quite well even beyond 100k:

https://insideevs.com/news/429818/tesla-model-s-x-battery-ca...

skolos··on Electric cars are coming fast – is the nation’s grid up to it?
Not everywhere. In Texas most extra renewable capacity is actually at night since at night wind is stronger.
skolos··on Electric cars are coming fast – is the nation’s grid up to it?
Tesla Model 3 has 100k miles warranty for battery with guarantee that battery will have at least 70% capacity remaining. Actual numbers indicate that degradation usually is significantly less - closer to 90% battery capacity at 100k miles: https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...
skolos··on Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
To be able to swipe your card you also need internet connection. Very rare, but I did have experience at a gas station when I couldn't fill up, because the internet connection was down.
skolos··on The Capitol Attack Doesn’t Justify Expanding Surveillance
Russia took Crimea by first just simply taking buildings. So once you physically possess important buildings you can do all sorts of interesting stuff.
skolos··on Starship / Super Heavy
Where do one finds out when SpaceX performs test launches? I would love to take my kids to see them.
skolos··on Photos from inside a Typhoon class submarine
Things in Soviet Union lasted forever not because they were purposely built that way, but because you either fix things or don't have them - it was almost impossible to get a new replacements. For example you would need to wait more than 10 years in a queue to get new car. Very few domestic made things were considered more desirable than foreign, and usually reliability was terrible.
skolos··on LyX – The Document Processor
I work as a quant (developing pricing models for power and gas trading shop) - I use LyX to write documentations for my models. And yes, I did use it to write my PhD thesis and several papers.
skolos··on Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 compared to SARS-CoV-1 [pdf]
21-23 degrees Celcius, 63% humidity
skolos··on Elon Musk: Tons of C++/C engineers needed
Especially with C++ its very easy to shoot yourself in the foot and experience is invaluable.
skolos··on U.S. drinking water widely contaminated with 'forever chemicals': report
Nitpicking: Chernobyl happened in Ukraine, so initially communists in Ukrainian Soviet Republic covered things up, not Russian. But I imagine they did consult with Central Party Buro in Moscow.
skolos··on China Set for Coal Expansion in Threat to Climate Goals
> The nation has 148 gigawatts (GW) of new coal fired capacity under construction. That is compared to 150 GW of existing capacity in the European Union and 105 GW in the works for the rest of the world
skolos··on Hospitals pledge to fight admin price transparency plan in court
This kind of stuff is even more ridiculous with higher cost procedures: course of radiation therapy to treat cancer - in network hospital sends bill for more than $1m, insurance pays about $3k, bills nothing to patient.
skolos··on SAT Scores Fall as More Students Take the Test
Could you please provide references to these "pretty well documented" studies?

Thanks.

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