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sethg

4,490 karma · joined May 4, 2007

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sethg··on Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
The Romney campaign’s equivalent was apparently some system called “Orca”, which involved volunteers on the ground sending information to a central location about the conditions that they saw. It wasn’t as extensive, and now we know that it gave misleading information to the campaign.

Two other things to keep in mind:

(1) The Republican leadership has been really really invested in the “fake it ’till you make it” school of persuasion: if you act like a winner, this will persuade the people who want to get behind a winner, and then you will win.

(2) Democratic operatives have known for decades that the demographic groups more likely to vote for them are also the groups that are less likely to vote at all. The Clinton-era solution to this problem was to pitch a message that was more likely to resonate with the population that was already voting; the Obama-era solution is to get more of those unlikely voters into the voting booths. Republicans don’t have as much headroom to improve their turnout.

sethg··on Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
Speaking as a former Chicagoan: the way you swing an election is with the connivance of the people who administer it, e.g., by making sure that the ballot boxes from “unfriendly” precincts end up in the bottom of the Chicago River.

Voter ID does nothing to prevent this sort of thing: the election officials in “friendly” precincts can just wink at forged or missing ID.

And voter ID makes a certain kind of election-skewing even easier, since officials in “unfriendly” precinct can discourage people from voting by rejecting valid ID, or simply by spending so long examining the IDs and arguing with the voters that everyone has to wait for hours in order to vote.

sethg··on Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
Obama took PA by five percentage points, which is consistent with his margin in the state-level polls that were taken throughout October. In absolute numbers rather than percentages, his margin is about 300,000 votes. Are you really trying to argue that a voter ID law would have taken enough people out of the electorate to flip the state?
sethg··on Don’t mess with IBM
Well, if you employ yourself and you could collect unemployment insurance after laying yourself off, some would consider that gaming the system.
sethg··on Don’t mess with IBM
Two years of unemployment benefits are considered “short-term”? Wow.

In the US, benefits usually run out at 26 weeks. Congress took note of the Great Recession and extended that to 39 weeks, or 48 weeks in states with over-6-percent unemployment, but that extension expires at the end of this year.

And Americans only get unemployment benefits if they are laid off; if you quit or are fired for cause, you’re screwed.

sethg··on When A Daughter Dies
A lot of the discussion in this thread seems to be along the lines of “if universal care is instituted in the US, then it will be ruinously expensive, because doctors will authorize every kind of treatment and the taxpayers will pick up the bill” vs. “no, because when this is done in other countries, the agency that finances health care sets standards for what procedures and drugs they will cover under what circumstances”.

I would like to point out that whether or not universal health care is brought to the US (it’s scheduled to kick in under Obamacare, but if the Republicans win they can effectively kill it), the fee-for-service model of paying doctors will have to go away, because right now that model is one of the things running up the cost of private health insurance here. The insurance companies, faced with rising costs, can either impose more restrictive rules about what they will or will not cover, or they can hike their premiums.

In the former case, they’re doing the same thing that a government agency would do, except that people generally change insurers when they change jobs... meaning that any care that costs money up front but would prevent problems five or ten years down the line is not worth spending money on, because some other insurance company would be picking up the savings.

In the latter case, middle- and upper-class families see more of their paycheck going to insurance, while people who can’t afford the premiums but aren’t poor enough for Medicaid just go without insurance, depend on the emergency room if they really really need something, and risk getting bankrupted by medical bills if a serious condition does appear.

(Which is why Obamacare was passed in the first place.)

sethg··on FiveThirtyEight: Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted
Depends on what you mean by “further to the right”.

From WW2 to the early 1970s, there was a two-party consensus on government intervention in the economy, and that consensus moved “right” even before Reagan. (One of Carter’s legislative accomplishments, for example, was deregulating airline fares.)

On the other hand, the country has moved “left” on social issues. Can you imagine any politician in 1975, outside of the most extremely liberal districts, saying that same-sex couples should have legal protections equivalent to those of a married couple? And now that seems to be the “safe” position for right-wing Democrats and left-wing Republicans to take. The ERA hasn’t passed, but the courts have been more critical of laws that have a disparate impact on men and women (the technical term is “intermediate scrutiny”).

Regarding protracted military interventions in foreign countries, the parties seem to have moved “left” in the aftermath of Vietnam and “right” again with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

sethg··on On sexism in the tech industry - rebuttal
Gloria Steinem once remarked that women in our culture are valued when they are young and pretty, while men in our culture are valued when they are old and rich: therefore, as they grow older, women become more radical and men become more conservative.

(As a man, I thought this was a very insightful observation... when I first read it... many years ago. :-)

sethg··on Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship
All countries—especially small and/or underdeveloped countries—need foreign trade in order to develop their economies, and it’s really really hard to engage in foreign trade without credit. And “if you stiff your current borrowers it may be harder to borrow in the future” is a risk that civilians have right now; creating a sovereign bankruptcy code won’t change that.

I forgot to mention that such a code would actually help borrowers, in the following way: For countries in a debt crisis, the lenders holding 90% of the debt may realize that they aren’t going to get paid back in full, and therefore would agree to a settlement where at least they get something back. But the ones holding the remaining 10% can pound the table and say “no, we want payment in full, and we’re legally entitled to it”... which leads the 90% bloc to say “well, if they’re still entitled to payment in full, we’re not going to be suckers and settle for less”... which leads the indebted country to say “we can’t possibly pay you all in full, so screw you all, we’re defaulting”.

sethg··on Some hedge fund managers walk onto an Argentinian navy ship
For private borrowers who can’t make their payments and probably never will, there is bankruptcy law, which lays out a orderly procedure where the borrower asks for relief, the lenders make their claims, and a judge decides who ends up with how much. It’s not a perfect system by any means, but anyone who loans money understands the risk that the borrower will declare bankruptcy, and the credit markets still function.

For sovereign countries, unfortunately, there is no such procedure. If a government borrows money on the international credit market, its taxpayers can be on the hook for perpetuity. I would like to see those taxpayers have at least as much protection as private-sector borrowers—especially when the taxpayers of a democratic government are on the hook for the debts of its authoritarian or corrupt predecessors.

sethg··on A Letter from Tim Cook on Maps
There are two companies that have done the legwork to acquire a really really good database of mapping information:

* TeleAtlas, which is in bed with Google

* Navteq, which is owned by Nokia, which has a deal to provide maps to Bing

So now maps is one of the few areas where both Google/Android and Microsoft/Nokia have a blatant advantage over Apple. Why would they want to give that up?

sethg··on Google Maps' advantage over Apple Maps
I’ve been hip-deep in this kind of thing for years, and it really is hard.

Suppose that data source A has a point for “Logan Airport” and data source B has a point (a few hundred feet away) for “General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport” and data source C has a separate data point for every terminal.... on a case-by-case basis it’s not hard to resolve questions like this, but when you try to come up with an algorithm that scales to tens of millions of map features, you spend a lot of time scratching your head saying “why did it do THAT?!?!”

sethg··on Google Maps' advantage over Apple Maps
Last I heard, Bing was contracting out to Nokia for their maps, as part of the whole Nokia-Microsoft strategic surrend^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hpartnership.

(And I know that for all its faults, Nokia is smart enough to apply human QA to their mapping system, because in my last job I worked on the Web site that those human contractors used.)

sethg··on Why I'm done with Scrum
In my experience (six months at a job that does Scrum and, I think, does it very well), the thing that slows down iteration planning meetings is when the product manager hands down a one-sentence feature description, the engineers say “we can’t size that, it’s too vague”, and then you need a five-to-fifteen-minute discussion in order to expand that one sentence into something resembling a spec.
sethg··on Why I'm done with Scrum
You can code, code well, and then discover that the feature you just implemented was something that the upper management actually didn’t consider to be very important, or that they wanted something completely different from what you thought they wanted. That’s the sort of failure mode that Scrum and other development methodologies are trying to protect you against.
sethg··on Sexual Harassment at DefCon (and Other Hacker Cons)
The slapped puncher is not going to say that. He’s going to say something like “I was in a crowded bar and some crazy bitch hauled off and slapped me, and I don’t know about you, but when someone up and hits me, my first impulse is to hit them back. Now she says I ’touched her inappropriately’ before she slapped me. I don’t know what she’s talking about. Maybe my hand brushed against her accidentally or something, but really, if she’s so hypersensitive she should keep the hell out of crowded bars.”
sethg··on Sexual Harassment at DefCon (and Other Hacker Cons)
Right, but that’s during childhood, not as an adult going to work and attending technical conferences. I can think of only one person I’ve met since turning 18 who was, umm, skeevy to me in a sexual way, and that person was male.

(He didn’t actually assault me, but I later learned that one MIT fraternity had nicknamed him “the NAMBLA man”, and a while after that there was an article in the school paper reporting that he had just done time for rape.)

sethg··on Sexual Harassment at DefCon (and Other Hacker Cons)
From a feminist perspective, it's not very empowering to a woman to have to resort to props and other crazy schemes to get unscrupulous men to fuck off.

People who already have power do not need props and schemes, because, well, they have power. I know that if I grab my boss’s crotch during a meeting and he says ”you have thirty seconds to convince me not to fire your sorry ass right now”, every witness to the event and everybody above him in the corporate hierarchy will back him up.

A man tempted to do the same thing to a woman less powerful than himself does not have the same assurance that he will suffer consequences for his bad behavior, and you can’t just create that sense of assurance by fiat. (As the Readercon debacle indicated, even written policies are no guarantee.) So people of good will are still trying to figure out how to hack the social environment to achieve a better culture, and until the rules of that culture become second nature to us all, then those social hacks will seem like, well, hacks.

sethg··on Show HN: Burner, for temporary phone numbers
Shouldn’t it be called “Burnr”?
sethg··on Men Walk On Moon - July 20th 1969
Really, if you’re going to commemorate it, cite a more authoritative source.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/july-21-1969,10515/

sethg··on Jeff Bezos Taught Me When to Quit
I have developed a theory about this:

Suppose you were hired to do X, and after doing X for a few years, you have developed the skill to do Y instead. But that skill does not guarantee that your current employer will have an opening for a job doing Y. Even if they do have the opening, from their point of view, if they let you transfer, they will definitely need to hire a replacement X, and you might turn out to suck at Y. So a rational manager will feel a strong pressure to leave well enough alone and let you keep doing X.

There are a variety of ways for an employee to escape this situation, but the simplest one is just to find another company with an opening for Y.

sethg··on Falsehoods Programmers believe about Time
What has a non-integral number of seconds?

I just found out today about Calcutta time, which until 1948 was GMT+05:30:21, but I didn’t realize it could be even worse than that.

sethg··on Falsehoods Programmers believe about Time
Imagine a historical database of Russian birthdays, copied from historical archives by data-entry clerks who had no idea when Russia switched from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar. (For extra fun, imagine that half of the clerks doing the data entry converted the dates before entering them, and half didn’t.)
sethg··on Github: United States Code
Sometimes legislators want the law to be ambiguous, because an ambiguous law can get 51% of the votes but a law that actually spells out all the details would only get 49% (or less).

And I’m not sure it’s possible to have a completely unambiguous language for dealing with relationships between human beings. The architects of Lojban have made some heroic efforts in this regard, and while that language does a lot to delimit ambiguity (e.g., if a sentence has no explicit tense markers, then it is not asserting whether the event is past, present, or future), but it can’t eliminate it entirely.

sethg··on After the age of scarcity
Differential pricing is a retail strategy that predates the Internet. If you want to be one of the first people to read a new book by an author you like, you have to spend to get it in hardcover; if you don’t like the hardcover price, wait a year and then buy it in paperback. You can watch a new movie in the theaters, or wait to pick it up on DVD. Pay sticker price for whatever groceries you want, or make the effort to collect coupons and buy the things that are on sale. Etc., etc. It’s all artificial scarcity, in the sense that nothing prevented a publisher from putting out a book only in paperback from day one.

“Exclusive content” is the same idea: the only difference is that the discounted price is zero.

sethg··on Developers: How to get Hired by Every Startup You Contact
I don’t have an open-source portfolio to show off, my blog is pretty moribund, and I spent approximately the second half of 2011 job-hunting.

On the one hand, I did wish I had some code to show off, because a significant proportion of the companies that looked interesting wanted to see some nontrivial thing I had written as a precondition to an interview; “send us a link to your Github page” was not uncommon. On the other hand, I did get interviews and I did accept an offer from a place I genuinely thought was a good fit (and not just “well, it’s a good escape from the previous employer”), so it is possible.

sethg··on FB down 8% at opening
In general, if a company’s stock goes way down and that decline is attributable to bad management, then some entrepreneur can gather together a bunch of investors and say “I can run that company better than the yoinks that currently occupy the boardroom. Loan me enough money to buy up 51% of those undervalued shares, and when I take over and turn the company around, the appreciated stock will make us all rich.”

However, FB Inc. is structured so that Zuck will retain a majority of the voting rights, even if every other investor stands against him (http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/02/face...), so even if the price goes down to a dollar a share, investors’ only recourse will be to sell before it drops to fifty cents.

sethg··on Fatal Collision Makes Car-Sharing Worries No Longer Theoretical
By getting into a car and driving you assume a non zero risk of being injured or killed in a car accident.

By getting into a car and driving you assume a non zero risk of being sued for damages caused by a car accident.

sethg··on Why Quit? Because the other company has bigger monitors.
Yeah, the monitor isn’t the reason; the monitor is a symptom.

Best Buy is selling 27" monitors for about $300 and 30" monitors for about $1,500. As a percentage of a full-time developer’s salary, depreciated over three years, $600 is pocket change and even $3,000 is defensible. So if a company is nickel-and-diming its developers over this kind of thing, what does that say about the overall attitude of the management?

sethg··on Why Quit? Because the other company has bigger monitors.
Ah, yes, now I am recalling the AC Adapter Saga from my last employer. We all got free cell phones (with free data plans), but for some reason mine didn’t have an AC adapter in the box. No big deal; I could just recharge it over USB. But it took weeks if not months before the adapter actually arrived. I pointed out to the HR person that if they would reimburse me, I would be happy to run out to Radio Shack and buy the appropriate adapter, but of course, That Simply Was Not Done.

The kicker, of course, is that my employer WAS THE COMPANY THAT MADE THE CELL PHONES.

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