safog

[Citation needed]

I don't think any country invites and then carries out a massive purge of existing labor as it sees fit.

If it does, then it won't be appealing to the class of person you're seeking to attract.

I think the problem is that people aren't cloud capacity you spin up / down. There was very definitely a shortage of qualified SWEs pre-AI, during the boom times from 2010-2022 or so. Sure some American SWEs exist but big companies were desperate for talent and there definitely weren't enough SWEs that were

(a) competent enough to pass the hiring bar (b) willing to move to places like Seattle / SF / NYC where these companies were hiring.

You only need to scroll back to a couple of years ago where people were turning their noses up at all forms of recruiter outreach and complaining about how aggressive the recruiters were. What privileged times we lived in.

Since 2022 / post COVID interest rate hikes / AI, the hiring dropped and college kids can't get jobs. The first bump in the economic road you hit, you want to scale down H1B capacity, cancel green cards, banish people. What happens if hiring picks up again? Do you just re-instate the H1b program? Or be resigned to getting high tax paying / high spending jobs shipped off shore? Will people really come to the US on a H1B if they know they can get scaled down like a cloud server at the first sign of economic trouble or the first sign that some politician wants some brownie points?

IMO this is all very short term thinking / political theater to score brownie points with the republican base for the elections.

Nothing here is good policy. Sure there's fraud, fix the fraud. You don't like the ad process, make it better.

But even the narrative that hey microsoft fired 1k citizens and hired 1k H1bs that are lower paying is false. These companies are huge organizations. If you laid off 2k people during your annual cycle in Xbox and start hiring 2k people in cloud 2 months from now (some of whom maybe H1Bs who are also impacted by layoffs), it's not the equivalent of firing an American and hiring a lower paid H1B.

As far as I know there isn't any wage discrimination at these big companies like Adobe or Microsoft. Everyone gets paid basically in-line with what levels.fyi says as a band for their level.

This is just a straight up lie and it'll take you 2 seconds to talk to the AI to figure out how the immigration system / referrals / "chain migration" work.

Yes this might be a bit too noob linux but I have the AIs maintaining an env.md + logs / updates on that md whenever they change anything about the env. Even things as simple as getting tmux to be fast, they do an excellent job at.

Drivers, Coding environment setup etc. are great too and it's nice to have everything logged so the next (more powerful) agent can come and improve the thing once in a while.

I wonder if it's a harness thing or a model thing at this point. I feel all coding models are quite capable for most tasks I want them to do.

Most of the time I don't need what the bench tests and I'm not really giving them completely ambiguous tasks without any refinement.

I only find marginal differences between models at this point and it almost feels like personality quirks in each model than anything.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't think a privacy friendly alternative is going to exist. It's going to go the way of show me your drivers license to use my site.

What happens if / when you eventually find a job? Can you file another change of status to a H1B? Does the status of the original change of status app matter? (e.g., can you apply for a COS to H1 while the COS to H4 is still pending?)

Thank you!

This is great! Thank you. I'm trying to figure out where I can stash the link so I don't forget about it.

Old man yells at cloud vibes. If these services were so devoid of value, competitors will spring up and eat their lunch. Capitalism still works. Silicon valley startups have made their money disrupting broken customer experiences in basically every single vertical. They are not immune from the same disruption.

Hi - could you tell me a little bit more about the interview process at HRT? Is it your standard FAANG-style leetcode / system design interviews? Or is it more math focused?

faux pas from a time traveler

We're barreling towards an internet that requires an id before you can use it.

It's a bit upsetting but I don't harbor the early 2000s naiveté about the free internet where regulation doesn't exist, the data exchange happens over open formats and connecting people from across the world is viewed as an absolute positive.

Govt meddling on social media platforms, the filter bubble, platforms locking data in, teenage depression stats post Instagram, doom scrolling on tiktok have flipped me the other way.

Internet Anonymity is going to die - let's see if that makes this place any better.

FAO: People who're claiming GenAi will replace artist jobs.

It might happen but it's extremely difficult even using state of the art models like stable diffusion v6 to get consistent results. There's usually some part or the other of the picture that's broken and it takes a lot of work with prompting, blending, varying to get it to work.

Buy the subscription for 30$ or whatever and give it a shot. First you'll be amazed but then you start noticing the minor flaws and how much effort it takes to make it good enough.

It's still possible that some jobs will get replaced, not every NPC detail needs to be hand drawn perfectly, but let's see.

I think HN should come up with its own Internet Artifact Museum :)

I'm happy to collab if folks want to.

r/cscareerquestions is pretty good even if most people there are the leetcode griding new college grads.

It also seems like you have to be wary of the tax consequences here. Who do you pay on the payroll? If it's a US Citizen in America it's one thing, but if it's anything else, then you may tax issues.

I assume they can manipulate their currency w/o making it obvious. Is there any thing else that might be a problem?

And yet somehow it's better to say transformer models and not AI?

It reads like your standard west coast liberal eat the rich piece. You need more unbiased economic analysis than that.

Big tech would much rather commoditize the telcos and treat them as dumb pipes. You don't have to eat everyone upstream of you, as long as you capture most of the value and leave some bits to the commodity suppliers it's fine.

On the internet, most of the value (ads, shopping, socia etc.) is captured by tech cos. The pipes (despite the net neutrality reversal) continue to stay dumb pipes.

> They are sitting on too much deposits as is, but even without that fact it is purely greed - or, to use another phrasing, it’s the right business decision for maximizing profits. They literally have no reason to improve returns on deposits.

Can I look up deposit volume per bank somewhere? I assume even banks will care at some point. 1% probably not, 10% probably yes?

Why don't larger banks (who presumably have hedged properly) not pay a real interest on deposits at this point? I don't think it's just greed.

The current bank of america / chase interest rate on savings accounts is 0.01%. No rational buyer should accept that when a money market is yielding 5%. People are moving deposits to money markets. That should force the banks to bump up rates.

Maybe they lose more by bumping up rates than they do by keeping them the same and losing deposits but I struggle to see that.

I'm not sure of the mechanics, I know for a fact that most people are moving $ to brokerages and parking it in something like VMFXX (or equivalents in Fidelity etc.)

Do you know what the mechanics are when you put some money in to VMFXX? Who does vanguard get the treasuries from?

I don't think it's that simple.

Banks bought up a bunch of US treasuries at close to nothing interest rates during the last two years. This is where a bank typically parks their cash reserves because the audit requirements require them to hold a certain amount of cash and cash basically == treasuries.

Now they're holding a bunch of treasuries that won't mature for a while. If they simply sold them they'd have to book a bunch of losses (because as rates rose the price of treasurys falls). They don't do that and instead hope holding them to maturity will be fine to service their existing commitments (i.e., pay interest on deposits).

The problem is that they bought treasurys that yield close to nothing and they have to make a profit on those and pay out an interest to customers, so they take their cut from the 2% and pay the customers a 0.03% interest on deposits or whatever.

The customer sees that their savings account is yielding 0% and they could just go park their money in a money market account that yields ~5% (thanks to overnight rates being that high) and moves their money from their bank to a brokerage account.

Bank deposits fall resulting in a standard bank run. Sure well run banks maybe have their risk profile in a better place (didn't actually go out and buy a bunch of 30yr treasurys like SVB did and instead got more short duration stuff) but they can't just pivot to instantly increasing the interest rates to match the money market account and so will continue to bleed deposits.

It's not worth discussing this because the reasons are well documented.

You need to adjust for cost of living, universities, hospitals, non profits don't pay as much etc.

There is a prevailing wage determination check for granting a H1. That rule was revised a few times, that's the right lever to pull.

You could make the prevailing wage requirements == median wage for a given experience in an area. Right now it's the 35th percentile.

I mean.. sure. There are still more job openings for SWEs than there are SWEs. The inflated comps from the last few years are an outlier, as long as you don't expect that you should find a job pretty quickly.

Seems like a home building problem then. Even if you're right (big if given out of country investment from rich Chinese ancestors was the cause of the Canadian housing bubble in the first place), you're ignoring the tax receipts and spending generated from high income techies who are only there because US immigration is shit.

You're not going to have doctor salaries for engineers by cutting immigration. Jobs will just move elsewhere.

There was also a lot of propping up of currencies that happened due to dollar strength. A lot of central banks sold UST they held for their local currency to stop currency free fall as rates rose.

This is a symptom of rates rising really quickly in the US than any de-dollarization I'd wager.

Engineers are getting paid 200k p/y out of school and you think there's some magical downward pressure on wages?

Even now companies are giving up on the legal immigration system and hiring outside the US. Canada has a much saner system. Gigantic engineering offices in India and China.

The US treats it as some zero sum game between citizens / immigrants and is losing out on taxes, economic spending (every HC outside the US is less spend in the US local economies).