US banks lost $472B in deposits in the Q1 2023
fdic.gov
fdic.gov
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=15IkH
Every day, the US Treasury must issue new bonds to replace those bonds it repays.
Given that the Fed is not stepping in to buy more treasury bonds in the open market, the private sector -- individuals, 401(k) plans, pension plans, endowments, mutual funds, etc. -- must find additional liquidity somewhere to buy the new bonds. The US Treasury will issue those bonds at the market-clearing price.
A similar logic applies to agency bonds.
Every day.
Of course bank deposits are dwindling!
The private sector doesn't "have" to do anything.
The US Treasury HAS TO sell the bonds. It has no choice.
sudo rm -rf M1 M2A $1 dollar bill is a legal document that gives the holder a credit of $1 with the US Treasury.
For central banks this is taken to the next level as I'm not sure they do anything with interest.
You can absolutely see examples of this in city and state governments in the US that have failed to make pension payments. Kicking the can down the road will eventually catch up with someone.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/20...
The Fed buys US treasury bonds for $XB, the treasury pays them the money plus interest, and the Fed then does nothing with the money?
That sounds like a way to lower the money supply, which is exactly what I'd expect of a central bank trying to fight inflation.
Not the best idea if the problem with inflation is on the supply side - energy costs and so on, corporations have to find a way to cover these and the easiest way is to raise prices. Reduction of money supply will make fall in demand and those corporations will find it difficult to cover day to day - either they'll have to increase prices even more or go bankrupt.
If they really wanted to fight inflation, they should have looked at easing supply side problems.
The only thing the Fed Reserve can do is move interest rate policy and other indirect-means of controlling M2 money supply.
But since they have to win elections, their incentives are in the opposite direction.
Which is why independent central banks were invented.
Please name the times in the last 30 years where the Fed has hastily raised interest rates.
Lemme help you out: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
The majority of the Fed's actions has been to drop interest rates.
> rather than reflexively resorting to the same old monetary tricks.
The Fed can _only_ do monetary tricks. That's all they're authorized to do.
https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-50-years-of-us-...
> The Fed can _only_ do monetary tricks. That's all they're authorized to do.
When you only have a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail. Not everything can be solved by monetary tricks, but it seems like they just have to do something for the sake of it, regardless if that means tanking the economy. But hey, once economy dies, there will be no inflation! Genius.
You're not posting very much evidence that the Fed often raises interest rates.
Your graph clearly shows the 15%, 17%+ federal funds rate of the 1970s, and the 5% we're at today, and the 0% we spent the last decade at. The error is clearly that we've overcorrected and dropped rates too low.
That’s not the Fed’s choice. The Fed has a mandate to target specific outcomes with a narrow set of monetary policy tools, acting within the existing fiscal framework.
Congress can make whatever fiscal interventions it chooses, whenever it chooses; the Fed doesn’t pass the baton to Congress when it feels monetary policy is inadequate, Congress passes it to the Fed by inadequate fiscal policy to acheive the goals Congress mandates the Fed to intervene to correct towards.
If you think a situation calls for a fiscal response that osn’t happening, you shouldn’y blame the Fed for not passing the baton, you should blame Congress for not acting. Congress isn't subordinate to the Fed.
Clearly the FED doesn't. If the Fed thought it was primarily a supply issue it would be printing money to allow cheap loans and industrial expansion
By all means, let's keep simplifying complex economic phenomena to fit neatly within preferred policy approaches. It's much easier to adjust the monetary supply levers than confront the thorny reality of supply chain bottlenecks and surging commodity costs. After all, those dealing with these realities on a day-to-day basis – the small businesses, the consumers, the workers – they aren't "anyone", are they?
Supply constraints can be pushing prices up, but demand pressure can be pushing prices up MORE.
If you look at your comodity costs, the question is if less of them are being produced than before, or similar numbers are being produced, but competition is willing to pay more for them.
To take a look at something simple like beef, supply keeps going up year over year. Producers in general have a healthy profit margin. However, people are willing to pay more for beef. Would you call this a supply driven problem or a demand problem.
You could do the same for energy costs.
Ditto for agency bonds that are repaid to the Fed.
Banks bought up a bunch of US treasuries at close to nothing interest rates during the last two years. This is where a bank typically parks their cash reserves because the audit requirements require them to hold a certain amount of cash and cash basically == treasuries.
Now they're holding a bunch of treasuries that won't mature for a while. If they simply sold them they'd have to book a bunch of losses (because as rates rose the price of treasurys falls). They don't do that and instead hope holding them to maturity will be fine to service their existing commitments (i.e., pay interest on deposits).
The problem is that they bought treasurys that yield close to nothing and they have to make a profit on those and pay out an interest to customers, so they take their cut from the 2% and pay the customers a 0.03% interest on deposits or whatever.
The customer sees that their savings account is yielding 0% and they could just go park their money in a money market account that yields ~5% (thanks to overnight rates being that high) and moves their money from their bank to a brokerage account.
Bank deposits fall resulting in a standard bank run. Sure well run banks maybe have their risk profile in a better place (didn't actually go out and buy a bunch of 30yr treasurys like SVB did and instead got more short duration stuff) but they can't just pivot to instantly increasing the interest rates to match the money market account and so will continue to bleed deposits.
You're ignoring Fed Repos. Aka: overnight deposits at the Federal Reserve. Which counts as cash and today is returning 5% APY.
Today, a bank will very strongly consider Fed Repos, because 5% is a much better rate than the rates from 2 years ago (aka: 0% to 0.25%)
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This also means that a 10Y bond you bought at like 2% or whatever is making less than Fed Repo overnight deposits today. So banks who are on 5Y, 10Y, or 30Y treasuries are in practice feeling like they've lost a lot of money. (And in SIVB or FRC's case, collapsed in part because of this mismatch, combined with depositor flight).
Do you know what the mechanics are when you put some money in to VMFXX? Who does vanguard get the treasuries from?
Jerome Powell is a polisci major. That’s a great degree for getting drunk daily and still graduating. He’s not the brightest bulb that has sat in his seat. Yellen at least was a PhD in economics from Yale who was famous for her meticulous attention to detail. Notice when the regional banks blew up the treasury and associated executive functions stepped in and shored up the Feds mess, and the fed just stood there saying “oops!” The fact he was picked by DJT, the Jerome Powell’s primary qualifications (given the cabinet selection process) were likely looking the part and flattering the boss.
The current bank of america / chase interest rate on savings accounts is 0.01%. No rational buyer should accept that when a money market is yielding 5%. People are moving deposits to money markets. That should force the banks to bump up rates.
Maybe they lose more by bumping up rates than they do by keeping them the same and losing deposits but I struggle to see that.
Goldman is trying to buy their way into retail banking and offer very competitive rates. Other more established retail banks are leveraging their size and reputation to maximize profits as they don’t see any upside to increasing rates. They don’t need more deposits, and they won’t lose a meaningful deposit base.
Can I look up deposit volume per bank somewhere? I assume even banks will care at some point. 1% probably not, 10% probably yes?
Do the decision makers have a similar diversity of opinion on how this works?
I'm guessing it's trying to subtly editorialize the report.
Better title would just be the "Quarterly Banking Profile"
2. Fed has been purposefully destroying money through its policy decisions. This is on purpose, because the Fed's only tool to combat inflation is to destroy money (either directly, or indirectly).
3. In regards to #2: Mortgage rates are higher, car loans are higher, etc. etc. People in practice have relatively lost a lot of money because of this and have to tap their savings. Note that this FDIC document has noted that somehow, we have less delinquencies right now. So it seems like Americans are remaining responsible and paying off their debts.
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Frankly, I'm surprised that "only" ~$500B of deposits have fled classic banks. People really should be moving their money to MMFs to take advantage of these much higher interest rates and the current Fed repo rate.
But when their policies cause M2 to go up or down, its got an effect that largely can be described as "Destroying M2", or "Destroying Money" in more colloquial terms.
"U.S. banks saw record deposit declines [-2.5%] in Q1 as profits remained steady: FDIC"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-bank-deposits-fell-rec...
> "The FDIC said the $472 billion in deposit outflows in the first quarter was the largest it had recorded since it began collecting such data in 1984. The decline was primarily from uninsured funds, as insured deposits actually rose $255.1 billion, or 2.5%, amid the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank."
This apparently means there was a 5% drop in the total uninsured funds, meaning likely about one-third of those funds were broken up into cash sweeps (into multiple smaller deposits, each under the FDIC limit for insured deposits)?
edit [uninsured funds exodus = 472 + 255 + ? offshored] ?
Fed policy for the last year has been to disappear money, which should eventually fix our inflation problem.
Cash is dwindling for the first time in a generation. The economy will act differently than most of us have seen in our lifetimes.
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M2, a measurement of how much money is in our economy, has been shrinking for months.
Then again, M2 expanded too much during the COVID-19 era policies (we overreacted to the problem. But I don't blame policy makers for taking bold action). So this is a somewhat natural backlash that the Fed needs to manage.
We are, and have been, undoing QE and raising interest rates simultaneously. This causes lending to be more expensive and savings to be better.
Alas, we all have debts to pay (lots and lots of individual debt, record high mortgage rates and car loan rates). We all have a bit less money as a people compared to last year.
So in practice, we are seeing personal savings dwindle and credit card debt (and other debt) balloon due to these interest rates.
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EDIT: Downvotes? Lemme explain further.
Since the peak in M2 of April 2022 at $22 Trillion, we're down to $20.9 Trillion, or roughly a loss of $1.1 Trillion in M2 (a measurement of how much money is in existence). The easiest place for cash to disappear is from liquid-savings accounts. Its very indirect: Fed raises interest rates, indirectly raising mortgages and car loan costs, raising what people are paying each money, eventually lowering savings accounts. But the "buck stops" somewhere, and its probably going to be in a liquid savings account.
It causes M2 to drop, and M2 includes savings account balances and MMFs (so it cannot be explained with "Oh, people just moved money to MMFs", because Savings+MMFs is dropping in general)
This excludes pension fund, mutual fund company, bank, insurance company, or any other large institution.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WRMFNS
Retail component of money market funds remains part of M2. Meaning that if depositors switched their money to VMFXX (or other retail money market funds), then it'd still be part of M2.
Raising interest rates has this explicit effect. There is a lag for this affect to be noticed in the system.
Total deposits is the money individuals placed in banks, (e.g. cash in a checking account). If a bank gives you a mortgage, it does create money due to the fractional reserve, but it doesnt change the underlying deposits (The deposits are the reserve)
The titular loss is simply people moving cash savings to money markets.
The amount of money in the system made up of currency deposited into a bank is less than 10% of overall money in the system (I think it was 7% in the UK last I checked). The rest is money (deposits) created from thin air at the moment that a loan is granted. The Bank of England website actually has some very good articles on these subjects. Loans literally create money. Paying off a loan destroys it, minus the interest paid to the lender, that stays in the system.
Banks do have a minimum reserve amount that they have to hold with the central bank, in the US and the UK this reserve percentage is currently 0 (zero).
I have a few downvotes it seems. I'd be very interested in where the gaps are in my knowledge as it's something I've been learning a lot about recently.
>The rest is money (deposits) created from thin air at the moment that a loan is granted.
You are conflaiting deposits and money in cirulation but they are not interchangable. Deposits refer specifically to cash held with a bank, not debt. As such, deposits do not change when loans are granted or repayed.
>Money is destroyed when these loans are repaid.
Similarly, Money is not destroyed when loans are repaid. Loans are repaid with real money, which remains in circulation.
> money is not destroyed
My understanding from my research is that this is exactly how it does work: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/how-is-money-crea...
Think about what you're saying for a second. If you take $100 loan from a bank to go to the pub and repaid $200 for the principal and interest, do you think they delete the full $200? Of course not. Do you think they delete the $100 you spent at the pub? Of course not. The bank keeps $100 profit on the loan and the barkeeper keeps $100. You now have $200 in circulation, the total loan repayment amount.
Your research on how Banks calculate their total deposits is incorrect and your research is insufficient. Take a look at this link and scroll down to the real world example[1]. Deposits are the some total of money people have deposited in the bank. It is not marked down by the loans a bank has made. The total deposits held by a bank minus the total loans the bank has made is called the net worth of the bank.[2]
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-macroeconomics/chapter/...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/loan-to-deposit-ratio.a....
Do you mind explaining this? The linked article has an example very similar to yours, explaining how bank loans create money. Does this not apply to your scenario? Or is it talking about a completely unrelated concept on the banking system? Or is it that you simply think the article is wrong.
I’m asking in an attempt to better my understanding of the subject. Please don’t turn this into an unnecessarily heated discussion.
Loans create money - nobody is disputing that. Deposits do not create or destroy money. Repaying a loan is not making a deposit.
Total deposits in banks, for example in the title "US banks lost $472 in deposits" is not calculated as the total deposits minus loans outstanding.
This sentence makes no sense and is incorrect: >Money (deposits) are created at the point that loans are made.
Maybe this article articulates better what I'm trying to say, as I think I was saying the same thing as it unless I've worded something badly.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022416/why-b...
Specifically the section: "How Banks Make Loans in the Real World"
> Contrary to the story described above, loans actually create deposits
For the last few months, especially the smaller, regional banks in the US felt the effects of fear the recent collapses have caused. That said, with the general slow-down and the risky game the SVB and others were playing, this had to happen eventually.
This seems like good news, and what we would want to happen.
No it doesn't.
Declined makes sense, "lost" doesn't.
"US banks declined $472B in deposits in the Q1 2023" (fdic.gov)
So they turned the money down? No, that doesn't sound right...
I also read "lost" as "lost track of", as in "we received these deposits but then don't know where they went".
a) No it doesn't. Here are mainstream news outlets that uses the word "Lost" in the context of bank deposits decreasing, and we all know what they mean, and no way implies that they don't know where the money went.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/economy/first-re... https://fortune.com/2023/04/24/first-republic-bank-loses-bil...
b) The report itself doesn't use the word "Lost" once, so its a useless nitpick.
No, the readers of fortune and the NYT business sections do, "we all" do not.
> The report itself doesn't use the word "Lost" once, so its a useless nitpick.
Actually, it's pretty important, the FDIC avoided the word.
Lets go with dictionary.com https://www.dictionary.com/browse/lost
> no longer possessed or retained:
Now lets substitute that into the editorialized title
"US banks no longer possessed or retained $472B in deposits in the Q1 2023"
Wow, it still makes sense.
Lets go to the FDIC now. https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/crisis/chap6.pdf
> On the other hand, the bank’s franchise value (if any) is lost
> For example, some assets might have lost value because asset management
> In addition to the fees, loan servicing transfers may impose indirect costs, such as lost information or delays or miscommunications in addressing delinquencies.
> A senior tranche is the least risky tranche in a securitization and takes losses only when all the other tranches have lost their full value.
It doesn't seem like the FDIC has any issue with using the word "lost" in the context of "numbers went down"
From that same link, let's do the same thing with the other definitions of lost:
"US banks can no longer find $472B in deposits in the Q1 2023"
"US banks $472B in deposits have gone astray in the Q1 2023"
It's not clear without reading the article and, given that the other definitions are FAR more newsworthy, it's an important distinction.