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rscale

1,019 karma · joined August 18, 2011

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rscale··on Announcing Kiln Harmony: the Future of DVCS
I could be wrong, but I don't think the git/mercurial integration is the big point of Kiln.

Rather, harmony seems like an interesting side effect generated when Fog Creek built some swank tools for mercurial-based corporate developers, and git won the war while they were doing so.

Most of the value I see in Kiln is in the activity filters, the notifications, the code review tools, the ACLs, and FogBugz integration. Git/Mercurial interoperability is just a cute feature.

rscale··on LinkedIn is a Virus
This won't fix the past, but it's not a bad idea to go to: https://www.linkedin.com/settings/ and 'Turn off activity broadcasts'.
rscale··on LinkedIn is a Virus
How to unfollow a company:

1. Go to this page: http://www.linkedin.com/companies?dspFllwed=&trk=hb_tab_...

2. Click 'Stop following' under the company you wish to stop following.

rscale··on Things about being a founder I wish I knew years ago
The only thing I'd consider changing on this deck is point 6 about hiring and firing.

The point has validity, but I've seen more (and larger) problems caused by likable but not-quite-qualified employees than I have by unlikable but qualified employees. A good board of advisors and broad feedback can help spot this problem and offer appropriate prescriptions.

rscale··on Forget Your GPA
If you're really struggling with the material and can't get an A after giving it 110%, you're just not at the top of the curve.

This was me in my first collegiate art elective. I put in enormous effort, but there was no there there. It was a valuable and humbling experience.

I'd used the author's "technique" in high school by making sure to get As in math and science, and simply not trying in the humanities classes. This plan backfired terribly, and in multiple ways.

Backfire #1: I was accepted by my top choice (CS @ CMU), but I wasn't offered any scholarships, and finances pushed me towards a less expensive option.

Backfire #2: it delayed recognition of the gaps in my abilities. I thought I was getting 'B's because I wasn't trying, when I actually had (sometimes serious) unaddressed gaps in my skill set.

Backfire #3: it delayed the realization that I really enjoy some of the subjects I'd blown off.

rscale··on Web Scraping 101 with Python
I recommend Selenium before I'd recommend PhantomJS in situations where Mechanize/Nokogiri don't cut the mustard,

I've found Selenium scripts much easier to comprehend, modify, and maintain over time than the PhantomJS scripts.

rscale··on The money of big data is in analytics
> Any stories of inadequate examples or meaningless correlations?

A customer's marketing group was tying visitor data to geodemographic data. They put together a database with tons of variables, went searching, and found a multiple regression with a Pearson coefficient of 0.8+, a low p, decided to rewrite personas, and started devising new tactics based on the discovery.

Fortunately, they briefed the CEO and the CEO said that the dimensions in question (I honestly don't remember what they were) didn't make intuitive sense, and demanded more details before supporting such a major shift in tactics. More research was done, and this time somebody remembered that this was a product where the customers aren't the users, so they need to be treated separately. And it turned out the original analysis (done without fancy analytics) was very close to correct.

If the CEO hadn't been engaged during that meeting, they would've thrown away good tactics on a simple mistake. The regression was "reliable" by most statistical measures, but it was noise.

A similar example holds for validity, where I saw a team make wonderfully accurate promotion response models, but they only measured to the first "conversion" instead of measuring LTV. And after several months of the new campaign, it turned out that the new customers had much higher churn, so they weren't nearly as valuable as the original customers.

> Care to elaborate how how to be more sure of reliability and validity?

I'm not a statistician or an actuary. I'm a guy who took four stat classes during undergrad. I know just enough to know that I don't know that much.

Disclaimer aside: my biggest rules of thumb are to make sure that you're measuring the thing you want to measure (not a substitute), to make sure the statistical methods you're using are appropriate for the data you're collecting, and to make sure you understand the segmentation of your market.

rscale··on The money of big data is in analytics
I also chose my words carefully.

Some people (like you) understand that reliability and validity aren't just "p < 0.05", but that's far from universal understanding. I've seen intelligent people accept and reject hypotheses with woefully inadequate evidence, and I've also seen wild hypotheses built on the backs of strong but meaningless correlations.

Dangerous beasts can be useful, but they must be treated with due care.

rscale··on The money of big data is in analytics
I get concerned about usages of big data that concentrate on "'discovery' of reliable relationships in the data."

The problem being that as we add more data, the chances of spurious relationships increase dramatically, and the human brain is incredibly good at finding a causal explanation for those relationships, even if none exists. This can quickly turn Big Data into a noise-generating rabbit-hole, leading us down blind alleys, and wasting our time.

I love that it keeps getting easier to test our hypotheses, but a search that begins without a logical and reasoned hypothesis is a dangerous beast.

rscale··on (Presumably) Apple engineer comment on Lightning AV adapter design
It's especially strange because if you want to do that, you can Airplay the video to the TV, and not have to deal with a cable from your phone to your TV.
rscale··on The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food
He seems to have brought his junk food carrots to market, except for one thing: they now contain 200mg of sodium.

http://www.babycarrots.com

rscale··on College Degree Required. But Why?
Community colleges cost money, but they cost less money. In my county in Pennsylvania, the community college charges $7,140/yr for tuition and fees. Unfortunately, they issue 2-year Associates degrees that have relatively little market value. To earn a Bachelors degree, the student needs two more years at another university. My local state university, Penn State, is charging $17,824/yr.

Add in the cost of books, and the total cost of a "budget" college education in Pennsylvania is roughly $55,0000.

As a counterpoint, a private engineering school like Drexel University (also in Pennsylvania) currently costs $51,405/yr, plus books, for a five year program, for a total in the $250-275,000 neighborhood.

rscale··on Mega update: Dotcom's service now accepts Bitcoin
Dropbox has access to all your files at all times, and will honor government requests to view your data.

They used to claim that your data was inaccessible without your password, but this was always a lie.

rscale··on Posterous will turn off on April 30
I did the same after the acquisition was first announced. It took about an hour to get it running, and fully monitored by my Nagios installation.
rscale··on Disqus bait and switch, now with ads
That quote is often wrong.

For example, there are "freemium" business models where the users are segmented by usage level, or by need of additional features. In those models, the "free" users aren't being sold, they're just potential customers and advocates.

Further, this sort of breach of trust isn't limited to free services. There are paid services that start selling advertisements as well.

rscale··on Young Money – Beating “The Man” by Spending Less
A person who owned a few dozen slaves and a huge plantation was incredibly rich, high in the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution.

Given the choice of being rich during the age of slavery, or being rich today, I'd prefer today.

rscale··on David Gelernter predicted Dropbox in 1996
You're right. In 1996 my home directory was stored on an Andrew File System folder that allowed me to securely authenticate from untrusted networks using Kerberos, and then access my files remotely, from multiple machines, and it used local cache used to keep things speedy.

It was incredibly strange that these sorts of capabilities weren't meaningfully commercialized, even though they were ridiculously useful.

rscale··on Why Amazon Is Special and Apple Is Not
This is also starting to become true with the kindle for consumers.

Anecdata: I'm an Apple customer who purchases Kindle books specifically because they're cross-platform. I like that they're at least future-resistant.

rscale··on How To Hire Great Business Development People
I got the idea from his post. The vast majority of BD candidates can't open a CRM and provide detailed information about it's structure and the deals it contains without revealing confidential information.

As such, I think it's a poor idea to make that a standard part of the interview process.

You mounted an unwarranted defense. There are edge conditions where somebody could do so without a problem, but they're the exception that proves the rule.

rscale··on How To Hire Great Business Development People
I'd be extremely reluctant to hire somebody who was willing to give me a guided tour of another company's CRM.

Even ignoring the ethics of the request, if somebody is willing to act against their current employer's wishes, they're almost certainly going to act against my wishes as well.

There are plenty of ways to check an applicant's abilities without requesting access to confidential information. This is as true for biz dev as it is for coders.

rscale··on First mega.co.nz indexer and search engine
Willful blindness isn't a particularly strong defense. Aimster tried it and failed.
rscale··on We Work in Philly – Startup Map
I take issue with a few parts of this comment:

1) Mayor Nutter's office is working to find ways to support entrepreneurship. A concrete example of this was the city working with First Round Capital to get them to move their offices from Conshohocken to their new space on Locust. Another would be StartupPHL. Or the assistance they've given the Science Center and the Navy Yard.

2) I use Philadelphia public transport regularly. There are tokens and swipe cards, but it basically works. The fancy unified smart-card system is supposed to arrive in 2015, for those who care about such things. I'm just glad the city didn't pull a Melbourne and spend $1.5B on a fare-taking system.

Taxes (especially city wage taxes) are probably the biggest real argument against opening in Philadelphia, but there are certainly some entrepreneurs who find that being directly in the city provides enough value to justify the expense. (Just as some decide to operate in California or NYC.) Whether or not this makes sense depends on what you're doing, who your customers and suppliers are, and who you're looking to employ.

That said, the reason for startups in the suburbs could well be simpler than any of the factors we've previously mentioned. Philadelphia proper has a population of 1.5MM and the MSA has a population of 5.8MM.

rscale··on A Russian Gains Prominence Among Fine Watchmakers
I feel like he's describing this: http://www.bamfordwatchdepartment.com/customiser.cfm but I could also be misreading the comment.
rscale··on Delusions that companies have about the cloud
Two key points:

1) Many companies already have most of these skills, or can acquire them cheaply and reliably via a service contract. The cloud isn't the only way to outsource operations.

2) The performance/reliability constraints imposed by certain popular cloud platforms can create very expensive development work, distracting developers from doing things that actually create value for customers.

I worked with a successful firm that was close to outgrowing their dedicated server and was considering going cloud. They sketched out an architecture that would get everything to fit into nice little EC2-shaped pieces. But there was a problem: it would take a ton of developer time.

Instead, they spent a fraction of the expected developer cost on some serious hardware, and they were done nigh on instantly. Their developers then used that saved time to do things that actually delivered more value to the customers.

The cloud is awesome when it fits, but it doesn't always fit.

rscale··on Apple fires Chinese supplier for using underage workers
I found myself thinking of this essay by Mike Turitzin as I read your post:

http://www.miketuritzin.com/writing/how-to-be-a-naysayer/

It's clear, concise, and well worth consideration.

rscale··on Apple fires Chinese supplier for using underage workers
A contract clause withholding outstanding payments until certain conditions are met would do the trick.
rscale··on Kim Dotcom’s Mega Opens For Early-Access Users
Dropbox used to say: "All files stored on Dropbox servers are encrypted (AES256) and are inaccessible without your account password." even though the files were accessible without their account password.

Mega might be doing the same thing: saying one thing to attract early adopters, and changing the marketing language once it gets broader adoption by people who don't care about that attribute. It's dishonest, but it would hardly be shocking to learn that a multiple felon was being dishonest.

rscale··on HBO comedy “Silicon Valley” – pilot script leaked
Maybe they'll surprise you by having a bar empty out after CloudCo's North Virginia datacenter has an outage.
rscale··on If you can’t get into a top-five MBA program, don’t bother
You might be interested in your local chapters of SCORE or the Chamber of Commerce. They often have events featuring that sort of down-to-earth advice, and are also a good way to meet other small businesspeople.
rscale··on Why I Won’t Be Using BetaPunch for User Testing
This list may contain errors, but UsabilitySciences, BugPub, Testlio, UserTesting, UserZoom, RemoteResearch, and uTest all look to offer related value propositions. Craigslist, CrowdFlower, ClickWorker, CloudCrowd, Reddit's /r/forhire and Amazon's Mechanical Turk can probably be used similarly.

When I've done UX testing, I've gone out, located the real target market of the specific product we were testing, and tested in-person. A couple times this process included a Craigslist post, but generally it was fully in-person. As such, I'm not qualified to recommend a specific service.

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