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probe

446 karma · joined December 31, 2015

https://twitter.com/pchopra28

Feel free to get in touch - love particularly talking about technology, business, finance, psychology, and politics!

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probe··on Inkling: Our Open-Weights Model
Do you think 3 is better than 1 & 2 as context gets larger? I think for smaller data sets its mostly fine no. It's an interesting bet by TM. End state does seem some form of continual learning (model weights update like dreaming)
probe··on Scientists edited genes in a living person and saved his life
Very dumb question, but how exactly does gene therapy work in vivo? Don't you have to modify every cell (or affected type of cell) with a new copy of the DNA? How does that actually.... happen?
probe··on ATProto and the ownership of identity
I strongly also think we're going to have a social network for humans-only (and one for AI-only, and one for humans + AI)

have you looked into world.org? They're scanning eyes and giving robust human identities. Before immediately dismissing, I'd check out the video -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXnwoMxKHV8

I think atproto + worldid can one day be very interesting

probe··on Show HN: ChessCoach – A neural chess engine that comments on each player's moves
Is there any good training software like this but for poker?
probe··on 'Nakamoto's innovation is real,' says SEC Chair Gary Gensler
If interested, here's the course Gary Gensler taught on "blockchain and money" before becoming SEC chair - https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s1...

The last lecture especially gives a sense of how he's thinking through things.

probe··on Why DeFi is not a Ponzi Scheme
What about the current DeFi framework makes it impossible to address?

Imo smart contract engineering has much more in common with firmware, hardware, etc. than the mindset a typical React/web2 engineer might have (i.e. try things and iterate). I think that point is not talked about enough.

probe··on Why DeFi is not a Ponzi Scheme
Yes for the most part it is. One reason being that it's just a lot easier to code and cleaner when everything is on-chain and tracked the same way.

But that's starting to change (https://centrifuge.io/) - still a long way to go ofc. I also know people who have done non-crypto collateral or just completely unsecured lending, but it does involve trust that is off-chain (legal contract, know the person, etc). I think that's a fine stepping stone (and may end up being necessary) as people figure out how to do everything on-chain and in decentralized ways (ex. using on-chain reputation)

probe··on Why DeFi is not a Ponzi Scheme
To be fair, you do have to start with over-collateralized loans before you can get under/no collateral loans with plenty of projects trying to do the latter. That's how lending itself started (https://www.provenir.com/resources/collateral/history-of-len...).

But I agree that if it's always overcollateralized then there is obviously much less utility created (though definitely some - similar to how you can get a loan against your home).

The project mentioned, Goldfinch, has already distributed 4.5M in uncollateralized loans to emerging markets using DeFi rails and liquidity already (https://medium.com/goldfinch-fi/goldfinch-raises-11m-from-an...). My 2c is that it's a sign of what's to come.

probe··on What I Worked On
> "How should I choose what to do? Well, how had I chosen what to work on in the past? I wrote an essay for myself to answer that question, and I was surprised how long and messy the answer turned out to be. If this surprised me, who'd lived it, then I thought perhaps it would be interesting to other people, and encouraging to those with similarly messy lives. So I wrote a more detailed version for others to read, and this is the last sentence of it."

I loved the ending. The essay was primarily for him. It seems that some of the best writing, similarly to the best products, is when you yourself are the recipient.

probe··on Bitcoin's fundamental value is negative given its environmental impact
This is also literally how oil/fracking projects work and are decided
probe··on An Update on Market Volatility
This was an awful PR response.

I actually buy the reasoning behind it - but putting out a corporate speak like this instead of trying to emotionally relate to upset users? Smh

probe··on Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”
TSLA and Comma.Ai aren't only ones. Ghost (https://driveghost.com/) is funded by top VCs (incubated at sutter hill ventures, same firm that incubated Snowflake) with a highly technical second time founder in John Hayes (first company is the public company Pure Storage).

They're taking the same bet (i.e. CV + ML advances on a large and high quality enough data set are enough). After listening to Hoetz on podcasts, I wouldn't underestimate this approach. People trying orthogonal technical approaches win surprisingly often.

probe··on Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”
Why? You can argue that CV is enough for SDC AND add extra LIDAR sensors to make it even better/safer (esp if the cost curve of the sensors make sense for consumers).

Just because I can ride a bike doesn't mean I shouldn't wear a helmet

probe··on Jim Simons proved the textbooks wrong, almost
I’ve found RenTech to be fascinating over the years and highly recommend the book on it “Man who solved the market”

Two big takeaways for his success -

1) He was pretty early, and quite contrarian, in betting on computer and quant strategies and thus took the “low hanging fruit” early on (def wasn’t low hanging back then when no one knew or believed in computer trades strategies)

2) From the book, Rentech’s main strategy was based on “reversion to the mean” - I.e “We make money from the reactions people have to price moves”. Trading on how you think OTHERS will trade and systemizing it (ex vol and momentum) is powerful but clearly doesn’t scale when you become the market yourself

And a bonus one - despite being a math genius, he basically was failing till he brought on others. He hired the right people (ie those interested in math not finance), created the right environment, took care of logistics, and pushed on a key insight (model to trade). He couldn’t have done it by himself.

probe··on My Conversation with Coda CEO Shishir Mehrotra: Stealth and the Future of Work
This was great! Really cool to hear the backstory of Coda & founder, esp given how popular its getting
probe··on Show HN: Publicly share your stock portfolio
That's great feedback, thanks! Yeah we also need to do a better job converting options into something readable too.
probe··on Show HN: Publicly share your stock portfolio
So this wasn't built on AirTable but definitely could have been (and I think our next iteration may to make it look even nicer)
probe··on Show HN: Publicly share your stock portfolio
We’ve been playing around on the side with ways to share trades with friends for some time, excited to share the latest iteration with HN - a personal page for your stock trades and holdings! Once you create your own custom page (see sample - https://rob.withlaguna.com/) you'll be able to import your trades automatically (Plaid), notify followers/friends through text, and grow an audience.

In our beta we have casual users sharing with friends & family to keep them updated, new traders sharing on their social media to build an audience, and existing traders more deeply connecting with their loyal followers through text. We even have someone using it as a faster way to see their portfolio holdings over Robinhood.

Would love to get some feedback from HN! What do you like/dislike? What features should we add?

probe··on I sold Baremetrics
I don't think OP's points would - VC really is about getting into 100x deals, and the "cost" multistage funds would take on to do that is quite high.

See Sequoia walking away AFTER giving $21M funding b/c of a conflict of interest with Stripe - https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/09/sequoia-is-giving-away-21-...

probe··on I sold Baremetrics
Yeah close rate is a good alternative way to look at it. GC can always have Josh as a founder reference to chat with a founder on the fence - at current market they could probably turn over in one deal (i.e. opp to invest in another business they wouldn't have won otherwise, at the same amount as Baremetrics). Great move for everyone!
probe··on Underrated predictor of success: willingness to be low-status
Whose biographies did you read and what else did you learn from this study? Sounds like a fun adventure
probe··on Origins of Venmo (2014)
The second point is really interesting - how instrumental was having a semi-public feed in them taking off? I use venmo b/c everyone I know has it, it has my bank info anyways, and it's easy to find people. Even now with a gazillion options I still default to venmo.

On the latter point of finding people though, a public feed has been useful. Often when I venmo someone new (ex. dinner), it's helpful to see my friends also having venmo'ed the person so I know I have the right account.

probe··on Robinhood now valued at $11.2B with new fund backing
The more people invest in ETFs/indexes/passively, the more opportunity there will be for active traders (indices by definition are adjusted to average and leave underpriced assets in the index), and so I don't think it's that surprising we're seeing more people try.

What to do with money is kind of like politics - people have different risk preferences/processes/deep rooted beliefs on what is right. And like politics, there is "no one right answer" but instead what compromises one wishes to make and what is relevant to their specific situation (ex. gun holders in middle of nowhere farmland vs. anti-gun urban dwellers).

I think Robinhood is net positive and kind of like political voting in that way - it empowers people to do something they couldn't before, and allow them to test their value systems in the real world.

probe··on The most important part of a product is actually the text
"Over coffee, John Saito once mentioned to us that the product of Dropbox itself had more words than a Harry Potter novel!"

Wow that is actually super cool to think about. I wonder what they mean by this (i.e. is it the product itself or does it include things like T&C)? I wonder what a comparison looks like for a more documentation heavy company (ex. Stripe)

probe··on Invite Rick to Rick Roll Your Zoom Calls
Super cool!! Is he manually joining these Zoom calls or is there a script running to let him join automatically (seems to be the former)?

Was looking into a side project that was a Zoom Timer (i.e. dial into Zoom with a timer background to keep everyone on track), but was worried we'd hit captcha if we tried to automate. Curious if he solved this :o

probe··on Unofficial APIs
Thanks for creating this - super cool!
probe··on Uber discusses plan to lay off about 20% of employees
Is there any empirical evidence of Price’s law? Would love to see it.

I could only find this study (admittedly from 1986) that disproved the original hypothesis - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/030645...

probe··on Show HN: How we reduced our Twilio costs 80% by switching to iMessage
We can tell whether the number is iMessage compatible (similar to how when you type in a new number to text on an iPhone you can tell whether it is iMessage compatible or not). So if it's not iMessage, we can send that number an SMS like normal. If they are iMessage, but for some reason delivery fails, we can also send an SMS as a backup.

Happy to chat more on privacy depending on your use case and how you want to set it up!

probe··on Show HN: How we reduced our Twilio costs 80% by switching to iMessage
You're spot on - iMessage returns a date_delivered so we know if it's successful or not, and send an SMS backup via Twilio.
probe··on Show HN: How we reduced our Twilio costs 80% by switching to iMessage
Yup great callout, something we think a lot about. We haven’t run into any rate-limiting yet, though are aware that it’s a possibility. iMessage returns the date_delivered which has been valid and we send an SMS in those cases.

As for Apple shutting us down, it is a valid concern, although right now the service looks no different than if one were to type out a message on their own device.

Happy to share more details and go through any concerns you might have - maybe there's ways we can help with appointment reminders!

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