prng2021

The problem is that when you bundle products, you can maintain your market dominance even when competitors have a better product. Microsoft has shown this to be true countless times, most recently with MS Teams (vs Slack).

Furthermore it doesn’t cut it to be marginally better than Google Search when they’re the default search engine. You have to completely blow them out of the water and for that you likely need long term, sustained investment to pour into R&D. How many VCs are willing to play that long game and invest when you have an incumbent paying $20B+ to block user choice?

The creation of Firefox and Google Chrome are examples of competition that tremendously benefited consumers, but which took many years to play out, after the government ruled against monopolistic behavior.

This is a nonsensical article to me.

"I ultimately believe that OpenAI in its current form is untenable."

Followed by a bunch of reasons why. Later they write:

"What I am not saying is that OpenAI will for sure collapse, or that generative AI will definitively fail"

What? Didn't they just explain 100 different reasons why they think think OpenAI will fail? There was also this:

"To be clear, this piece is focused on OpenAI rather than Generative AI as a technology — though I believe OpenAI's continued existence is necessary to keep companies interested/invested in the industry at all."

To be clear? So they are trying to separate OpenAI from gen AI. Then they throw in a hyphen and say, oh but without OpenAI, companies would stop spending time and money on gen AI. Ok, thank you for the..clarification.

I stopped reading after that.

Agreed it's biased, but no one working for a fortune 100 company would doubt Java's relevance

Are you kidding me? 50% is peanuts given that AI has been touted for years to be more profound to humanity than electricity or fire:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-ai-...

AI is supposed to be a huge new revenue driver and my point, echoing others, is that it's nowhere close. They've spent double on AI compared to last year:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-earnings-top-estimat...

"In the second quarter, Alphabet reported spending $2.2 billion building AI models across its DeepMind and Google Research organizations. That's up from $1.1 billion in Q2 2023. When exactly AI starts to generate revenue for Google’s Cloud business, let alone its ad segment, is still up in the air."

Their revenue grew 14% YoY. That's nothing special at all if you look at their historical top line growth.

I just listened to their earnings webcast. It looks like it's going to be yet another earnings release season of tech companies spending billions on AI infrastructure with nothing to show for it. And they're promising continued levels of intense spending on compute. Sundar's comment was that it's better to overspend than underspend and fall behind the competition. Time to buy more NVIDIA.

Lina Khan is our modern day superhero. She may be losing most of her lawsuits against big tech, but she has clearly struck fear in stakeholders on both sides of every tech acquisition.

Huh? We're talking about hypotheticals here. You're saying availability is clearly more important than data integrity. I'm saying that if a buggy kernel loadable module allowed systems to keep on running as if nothing was wrong, but actually caused data integrity problems while the system is running, that's just as bad or worse.

What is the importance of data integrity? If important pre-op data/instructions are missing or gets saved on the wrong patient record which causes botched surgeries, if there are misprescribed post-op medications, if there is huge confusion and delays in critical follow-up surgeries because of a 100% available system that messed up patient data across hospitals nationwide, if there are malpractice lawsuits putting entire hospitals out of business etc etc, then is that fallout clearly worth having an available system in the first place?

Availability of a system that can’t ensure data integrity seems equally bad though.

Have you ever worked for a company larger than a 3 person startup? When you work at a company with hundreds of thousands of people, how can you “easily” move data into cold storage without destroying employee productivity? Don’t be hand wavy. Be specific about your solution.

Do you move all old files, emails, internal knowledge articles, code repos, chat messages, etc etc to cold storage? You can’t search for anything you’re looking for in OneDrive, Outlook or Slack if the data is in cold storage so are you going to develop custom applications to support the same search filters as each original source application, but which searches your cold storage?

Once a user finds something in cold storage, you have to load it back into the SaaS app to display it. Why? A variation of the following applies to all enterprise data: A Slack message has tons of important metadata tied to it besides the text content. For example Slack user Id of the message sender, channel ID it was in, file ids of any file attachments in the message, and so on. How do you load that back into Slack from your cold storage?

You can put any data in cold storage. In the real world, that often makes the data almost useless for employees.

Whether you’re talking about enterprise file storage, email, or chat messaging software, they all have APIs and/or admin user interface to allow retrieving any and all data to support eDiscovery.

I just did some quick research on these IDs. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like each user account would be tied to one device. It also seems like the user, at least on Apple devices, has to opt into advertising tracking in order for your app to even get access to this.

Ignoring the security pitfalls of phone numbers, it really doesn't seem like these advertising IDs are a drop in replacement for using phone numbers.

The article explains a $600B gap in AI revenue expectations vs actuals. Rather than addressing that, you're posting about some dietician you know who worries their job will get replaced, as if it has any relevance whatsoever to the big picture.

We should have seen massive revenue growth and raises in future quarter revenue forecasts in the most recent round of SaaS company earnings reports. I think tons of companies have hyped up AI as if it's just on the cusp of AGI. The lack of massive top line growth has proven we're not even close, but the enormous investor speculation these companies triggered is the main reason for this $600B gap.

I'm not at all saying AI won't be transformational because it definitely does bring revolutionary capabilities that weren't possible before.

You're not the intended audience. You can read the cliff notes on Engadget later.

Not that hard if he's just trying to create something smarter than himself. I'd say we're there.

I love the idea but I think they really need integrations to make this useful. They need connectors to cloud storage and other SaaS apps. No one wants to manually monitor a Box/Google Drive/One Drive folder for new or updated documents and manually upload them into a Claude project.

I'm not following. Are you implying that malware can't infect data and remain undetected?

Thanks, those are great points. After more thought, I somewhat agree I was overweighing the value of visualizing things in my mind. I don't know if there are people out there that can actually conjure tastes of food as part of remembering something. I only remember food tastes through language descriptions like sweet, salty etc. So maybe that's analogous to aphantasia. It's just that we're talking about the sense of sight versus taste. From a practical standpoint, there isn't much value even if I could taste something as part of a memory. It would make the memory even stronger and more vivid though.

Based on the article and the comments here, it sounds like the way you remember things must be missing a lot of details. I'm speculating here because I just saw a movie today at a theater and I can playback scenes in my mind. I can certainly describe a scene with words but that's clearly very limiting. At the very least, I don't have words to map to all the colors my eyes can detect. Do you think that's accurate?

That's said, I imagine if you rewatched a recent movie, you would recollect every scene during the act of rewatching, just like someone without aphantasia.

For anyone who has a hard time believing this condition is real (because I initially did) here's how I think about it. When I first learned there are people who are color blind, I was stunned and skeptical that I could be looking at a certain colored flower and someone next to me didn't see the same reality. I can also easily believe that someone can imagine something in their mind way more vividly than I can. I'm willing to bet you could do an experiment where you give various people step by step instructions to do origami in their mind, draw a top-down view of the final shape, and there'd be a wide range of accuracy even among people without aphantasia.

Ah, I see. I’d be interested to see a study on that. I find it hard to believe it would make such a stark difference but it’s possible.

And what makes you so confident that all those people are using different prompt styles when comparing models? You think most people don’t even understand the bare basics of how to compare two products?

I used to distinguish investing from gambling, but I view them as the same thing now. Many are just chasing meme stocks at this point whether they’re labeled as such or not. Apple makes more profit in a year than NVIDIA’s forecasted top line revenue for FY2025 but their market cap is now eclipsed. It seems that concrete metrics like this are irrelevant relative to pure human emotion when it comes to estimating fair market valuation. So much so that a stock can be valued by trillions of dollars more than what you might calculate based on these business metrics.

Looks very promising, congrats! I would remove the claim on the “Why Teo?” doc page that claims Teo is “Bug Free”. That’s an outrageous and impossible to achieve claim that turns people off.

You can use both search methods by using hybrid search. Here’s an implementation:

https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/search/hybrid-search...

I think everyone knows that Apple and MS provide a lot more value to their lives and the companies they work for than NVIDIA does. The problem is every tech company and countless startups have promised a very near term revolution to life on earth as we know it, due to AI. Now every single one of those companies is thinking the following:

1. A competitor might actually make the visionary future a reality, and so, falling behind is a corporate existential crisis

2. They’re nowhere close to making their vision a reality. I think companies knowingly continue to sell a healthy dose of BS to their customers in terms of AI capabilities, but I also think they’ve fooled themselves with their own arrogance. For example, Google learning in realtime with the rest of the world that their AI generated search results are sometimes outputting nonsense.

This is why I value NVIDIA over all software companies. I’m confident the latter group has hyped everything so much that most will eventually fail to meet expectations. NVIDIA just gets to sit back and watch it all play out.

I do think they’ll eventually deserve a $3T valuation some years down the line as models continue to improve and some industries truly get revolutionized.

Nvidia’s founder isn’t a fortune teller. He didn’t create his company to become the world leader in running AI workloads. CUDA has been around for a long time and it didn’t give them any significant advantage over AMD. If generative AI hadn’t exploded very recently, NVIDIA and AMD would just be battling it out with their GPUs for gaming as before.

I haven’t used Windows in over a decade and hate it but if you think Windows is not widely accepted for desktop users on planet Earth while Linux is, you live in an alternate reality.

I’m curious if using these sites through a remote desktop session would be a lot better experience. Keep a computer running at home. Connect to it from Antarctica and do what you gotta do. I don’t know how well VNC/Windows Remote Desktop do with such poor network conditions though.

Isn’t that like saying Apple’s iPads will only maintain a moat for a few more years because MS Surface tablets match in hardware and “only” lag in software? My general point is that the core software (and the software ecosystem built around it) is half of the product. NVIDIA isn’t going to stand still either.