This is a very long article which seems to just reveal the author doesn't understand the difference between percentages and percentage points.
50% to 62.5% in the simplified calculation is a 25% improvement, not a 12.5% improvement. It's a 25% improvement on already low odds (after all, nobody is actually saying that it's 100% probability that your D will stop the next drive and then you will score another touchdown. It's just assuming that those things have to happen either way so the odds cancel out, and this is looking at win probability assuming that those things happen). Laura's calculations, for a similar scenario (4 possessions remaining), projects the overall probability of winning going from 11.2% -> 12.9%, which is a 15% improvement, roughly the same order of magnitude as the simplified example. I don't have the exact breakdown for a two-possession scenario, but in her slideshow she says this, which seems to be what the author is citing:
> If down by ...16 (before the 6 TD points), the strategy improves the win probability by <1%.
But I am convinced she is talking about absolute percentage points here (e.g. 10% to 10.9%), not a <1% change (e.g. 10% to 10.09%). Why? Because the slide has this before it:
> Rationale: if you are down by 15, you have to score two touchdowns while keeping your opponent from scoring
She is demonstrating that it's not a silver bullet given it's exceedingly unlikely you will win anyway.