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paul80808

79 karma · joined June 23, 2021

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paul80808··on Old Soviet Venus descent craft nearing Earth reentry
Only if it is only spinning along one axis. Very likely to be spinning on multiple axis. That said, with enough money and effort I'm sure we could figure something out, like shooting it strategically with small projectiles to slow the spin, etc.
paul80808··on Selling 'Ghost in the Shell'
I have to disagree with both. I help a colleague teach a class in which students often read necromancer, and it often has a deep impact on them. The cloned ninjas and laser weapons are uninteresting to them for the reasons mentioned above, but the Necromancer + Wintermute dynamic and central plot is fascinating to them.
paul80808··on Moirai: A time series foundation model for universal forecasting
Same for my shop - we manage a large pool of cost driven by partially forcastable factors; we've repeatedly rejected methods purely on explainability grounds. Our accountability requirements do not allow us to point the finger at an LLM if we get it wrong.
paul80808··on Permutation City (1994)
Second this recommendation. Blindsight hits much harder and faster than Egan - and in my opinion the writing is much tighter. Similar focus on science-based idea exploration, particularly in regards to theories of consciousness, brain structure, probability, and vampires. If you like Egan I'd be shocked if you didn't like watts. He is one of the hidden gems of science fiction and an absolute gift to humanity.
paul80808··on I Found David Lynch's Lost 'Dune II' Script
But other scenes, like the squishing of the literary agent between the floor and ceiling of a building that had been, up until that moment, supported but some kind of energy field, would be spectacular.

But more generally I completely agree with your comment. I also think the religious symbolism, like the cruciform parasite and the tree of pain, were a bit cheesy and overwrought in the writing, and would come across cheesy in a film, too.

paul80808··on Universities Are Not on the Level
This guy PSEs. I've worked in tertiary education policy for 20 years and this is about the best summary of structural issues possible to fit in a tweet-length post, well done.
paul80808··on First look at Microsoft 365 Copilot
Maybe. But it seems unlikely - are you confident that the filtering were using on weak AI would also work on strong AI? I'm not...
paul80808··on AI Doomers are worse than wrong – they're incompetent
This piece would be a lot better is it didn't spend half the time piling ad-hominem attacks on "doomers". If you see this episode through an AGI-safety lense, it realized/reflects a type of risk that has been very extensively articulated/predicted by the safety community.
paul80808··on 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars
Same here. I commute 3 days per week, 15 km each way. It takes me 35-40 minutes, but I enjoy it and get great exercise. I spend the time thinking about my day, and am happier and more productive if I've gotten that exercise.

I do get the occasional flat, but I learned to change it myself, and can get a new 4$ tube on in about ten minutes.

I pack rain pants and a shell and just put them on if a bit of rain comes. I only give up when the roads are snowed in and haven't been cleared yet, which is only a few days per year.

Most complaints about weather and maintenance are easily dealt with with a few basic skills and simple preparation.

It might sound like year round commuting is extreme - but ive found it far easier and far more enjoyable than I expected.

paul80808··on Chopstick robot handle boxes with ease
I like this shankbot aka Mr. Stabby.
paul80808··on I've overlayed stays on a light pollution satellite map
I'd be willing to bet this isn't the case: even in unsafe areas dogs need to go outside to do their business. I doubt there's a natural experiment out there that could demonstrate causality...
paul80808··on 'Not of faculty quality': How Penn mistreated Katalin Karikó
I've worked in postsecondary policy for a dozen years and while this perspective is cynical,it's painfully close to reality in many cases. "Paying the Price" by Sarah Goldrick-Rab chronicles some horrifying case studies , if you're interested.
paul80808··on OpenAI just replaced its core values with completely different ones
On Android I use the insecure and questionable approach of Kiwi browser, which will run desktop chrome plugins including Ublock. Interested to hear if anyone has a better solution.
paul80808··on The Price-Fixing Economy
Pricing software offers implicit collusion by providing competitors a way to agree on a price that is equivalent to monopoly prices, without them need to formally meet and agree on a price - which would be easily prosecutable.

There are examples in many markets, here is a well-researched example that comes to mind: https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/clark_acex_ja...

This paper discusses how algorithmic pricing produces outcomes that are equivalent to collusion-based pricing in the German gasoline market.

Recent experiences with grocery pricing across North America and Europe look very similar to me. I know some computer scientists who have worked with major grocery retailers to implement fairly sophisticated automatic pricing tools. The goals they work towards are typically fairly simple metrics, like average spend. Even though the goal isn't to gouge consumers, it's easy to see how how this might be the unintended result.

paul80808··on Pollution cleanup method destroys toxic “forever chemicals”
I regularly bike in the rain for 30 minutes or more. My gear is all nylon with a non-PFOA wax coating. It doesn't perform as well, and my jacket will get saturated after about 45 minutes. I deal with that by wearing something under the jacket (usually a fleece). Absolutely worst case, the fleece gets slightly damp but I am still perfectly comfortable for many hours.

The only other issue I see is that I have to reapply the coating about once a year, or after I machine-wash the jacket.

Overall these are very minor inconveniences. I wonder if anyone really needs the performance gains of these chemicals - you only see the advantage in really bad weather conditions over long periods of time. How many people are doing day-long hikes in pouring rain?

paul80808··on FTX faces potential hack, sees mysterious outflows totaling more than $600M
I hear a lot of critiques around effective altruism that boil down to attacks on people who practice it as being immature, naive, or cult like.

At its core, EA asks what the most effective way to contribute to humanity is. Some of the thinkers are mature and have produced amazing projects, givewell being an obvious example.

There are definitely some weirdos affiliated with the movement, but I don't think that that discredits its approach or philosophy.

paul80808··on More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade
Exactly. The past of fusion has been grim, but the future looks (probably) bright. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...
paul80808··on Ask HN: I don't feel like working at all, what to do?
Can't agree more. I've had similar experiences in a competitive environment with bad management. I moved from a small consulting firm where I was top performing and very happy, to a large hierarchical / competitive office where I lost a lot of confidence. Eventually I left and found a new job in a much better team and it made a world of difference.