More invested in nuclear fusion in last 12 months than past decade
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[1] https://vixra.org/pdf/1812.0382v1.pdf
I'm a professional fission guy. I started out in fusion and switched to advanced fission. These days I don't see why we don't just build lots more regular old LWR fission reactors.
Imagining that somehow fusion is going to a) work, b) be cheap (fuel cost is only 5% of total nuclear fission cost so who cares), and c) not have the same stigma as fission is kind of weird in my mind.
For example, there are leaks of tiny amounts of tritium at some fission plants and people lose their minds. Fusion reactors will have many orders of mag more tritium. Will people not lose their minds just the same? Tritium is notoriously hard to contain since it's so small. It can permeate through metal like a hot knife through butter.
Also, lots of people worry about fission and nuclear weapons proliferation. So does fusion get around this? Not really. In fact it's worse. Did you know that the two materials you need to make thermonuclear weapons are tritium and plutonium? Tritium breeding is required by almost all practical fusion power plants (the other reactions are 100s to 1000s of times harder, I don't care what x random fusion CEO says, they're in it for the sweet billionaire side project money).
Plutonium is made by irradiating natural uranium from the dirt with neutrons. Practical fusion reactors have lots of neutrons. Really high energy ones too.
Anyway let's just do fission you guys. It's way easier. It has been working fine since the 1950s. It's zero carbon. Waste problem is solved (see Onkalo, and reprocessing). It net saves millions of lives by displacing air pollution. It runs 24/7 on a tiny land and material footprint. We have enough uranium and thorium to run the whole world for 4 billion (with a b) years using breeder reactors (demonstrated in 1952 in Idaho). Get the Koreans over here to build some ARP1400s or the Chinese to build some Hualong Ones until we figure out how to project manage again and then call it good.
Is that why power plants go years over time and hugely over-budget?
> It has been working fine since the 1950s.
Oh, yeah, just fine, not a hitch:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_power_accident...
> Waste problem is solved
The solution being: Ignore it, I guess?
> net saves millions of lives by displacing air pollution
And we fight wars for peace too.
> It's zero carbon
Not if you count the mining aspect. But even if you didn't: Wind and solar are now 3 times cheaper or more, and take a lot less time to set up. The power output stability benefit is wearing thin.
With containment techniques combined with the ridiculous amount of uninhabited desert the US has, this is a non issue.
(But of course "waste" is not really waste, it's fuel spent for a few per cent; a breeder reactor + reprocessing should burn it again and again and again.)
https://www.power-technology.com/analysis/managing-nuclear-w...
Yes, short term they manage it.
When we are discussing the future, our concern is long term.
If we could build the nuclear reactors now, keep the spent fuel (whether or not we're going to reuse it in breeder reactors) as safe as we know how, and solve the long-term problem later, then we'd have a much better chance of there being a later to worry about.
People proposing nuclear energy as this wonderful overlooked strategy are not consider why it's consistently self limiting.
It's not a "solved" problem inthe long term
Having said that, dry casks are a perfectly cromulent way to deal with spent fuel.
The question of how to dispose of nuclear waste - in a manner that is satisfying to the residents of the state where it is being disposed - remains an unsolved issue in the US. And the current policy is to basically just ignore the waste. It’s being stored for the time being at reactor sites in steel and concrete casks - which I don’t think anyone would argue is a sufficient solution.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste...
> in a manner that is satisfying to the residents of the state where it is being disposed
No, that is basically NIMBY. Of course some residents won't like nuclear waste buried underground, 100 miles from them in a place they'll never go and where no one lives. I don't know how to not sound callous about that.
We do this all the time.
People object to living next to the airport. They object to new roads. They object to schools being built, rail lines, bus stops, even hospitals.
Yet, we weigh the pros for society against the cons for specific people. That's why we have a country with any infrastructure. If we simply gave in whenever someone said no, we would all be dead in an empty field.
As someone else says, "People object to living next to the airport. They object to new roads. They object to schools being built, rail lines, bus stops, even hospitals."
Where I live, the old Orchard Supply store is being turned into a Costco. There are people objecting to that, too.
I have little doubt the NIMBY's are recalling one or more of these incidents.
And this is just limiting the scope to power plant related waste. If you talk about industry in general you have many decades of weird cancers and nonpotable tap water in various parts of the country. The lack of trust comes from precedent.
Treat nuclear the same way. Don’t ask towns to host nuclear facilities out of the goodness of their hearts. Make it worth their while.
If nuclear power starts raising real estate value, the NIMBYs shut up.
The nuclear industry doesn't generate the money for that kind of lubrication; they demand more subsidies and immunities than they already have to build anything as it is.
But that was the problem with Yucca - it was chosen exclusively for its “scientific” value - remoteness. They didn’t event take transportation costs into account.
If you start with the political aspects, it becomes really, really easy to solve.
How many towns and cities are there with plants shutting down? How many with a history of military and nuclear facilities?
I know one town in particular that is trying to specialize in nuclear work. They have consultants, training programs, etc. Why not call them?
> Is that why power plants go years over time and hugely over-budget?
'Late and over-budget' sounds easier than 'has never been demonstrated'.
> Oh, yeah, just fine, not a hitch:
Now show me list of the 8 million people who die per year from air pollution.
https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution
> The solution being: Ignore it, I guess?
I mentioned the solutions but didn't provide a link. here you go.
https://www.posiva.fi/en/index.html
> And we fight wars for peace too.
See the literature https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/kh05000e.html
> Not if you count the mining aspect.
Nuclear has rock bottom full lifecycle carbon emissions of 12 gCO₂-eq/kWh, including mining. C.f. 11 for wind, 40 for solar, 490 for gas, 800+ for coal. Hard to beat.
> Wind and solar are now 3 times cheaper or more
You're comparing the worst US nuclear builds with wind/solar without storage, transmission, overbuilds needed for storage, etc. LCOE is not an appropriate metric for systems costs. Never was. Lazard are a bunch of kooks. Look at Hualong One costs.
Details on cost comparison for deeply decarbonized grid here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006
Yeah, we do with more pro-nuclear propaganda and outright falsehoods (again).
> Now show me list of the 8 million people who die per year from air pollution.
No, it doesn't. Here's the exact quote from your source:
> The combined effects of ambient air pollution and household air pollution is associated with 7 million premature deaths annually.
Not "die from" but "is associated with". What does that mean? "Associated with" here means "reduces the life expectancy", basically. That's a far cry from "dies from". The primary relationship with mortality seems to come from particulates. Some of these are natural (eg sand in deserts), some of it isn't (eg cooking fires). It also includes motor vehicle exhausts.
To give you a sense of the level of bullshit going on here, other conditions are getting attributed to air pollution [1]:
> They linked nine causes of death with the pollution: cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, lung cancer and pneumonia.
One study estimates 100,000 Americans die every year from air pollution [2]. That just doesn't pass the smell test and shows you what's going on: it's attributing air pollution to certain medical conditions and then counting deaths from those conditions are air pollution deaths.
Exaggerations and outright lies do your cause a massive disservice.
Pro-nuclear propaganda doesn't address these issues:
1. Not a single nuclear power plant has been built without significant government subsidies;
2. Nuclear power plant falsely reduce costs by externalizing significant costs such as the processing of fuel, the processing of fuel processing waste, maintenance, inspection (eg by the NRC), switching out fuel, processing nuclear fuel, the time-to-build or the failure modes of nuclear plants. Lest we forget, the Chernobyl Absolute Exclusion Zone is 1,000 square miles 35 years later.
If these next-generation LWRs are so economical, why isn't someone building them at scale? The standard response is political opposition but what about China?
I swear nuclear fan boys are just as delusional as climate deniers.
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/20/us-air-p...
[2]: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-04-0...
Fair enough, I have not checked whether those are the previously mentioned lwrs, but I would argue that those numbers are definitely "scale"
That's still a lot more deaths than commercial nuclear fusion has been associated with in the US. It's also, incidentally, a lot of deaths.
> 1. Not a single nuclear power plant has been built without significant government subsidies.
This is a non-sequitur. Just because something needs government subsidies doesn't make it bad. Things like the Internet, modern solar energy, and the USPS were built with either massive initial subsidies or even complete government involvement throughout their ongoing lifetimes. That doesn't make them bad.
> 2. Nuclear power plant falsely reduce costs by externalizing significant costs such as the processing of fuel, the processing of fuel processing waste, maintenance, inspection (eg by the NRC), switching out fuel, processing nuclear fuel, the time-to-build or the failure modes of nuclear plants. Lest we forget, the Chernobyl Absolute Exclusion Zone is 1,000 square miles 35 years later.
Versus coal and oil plants, which externalize the costs of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, comparing a shoddily built and designed Soviet plant to modern Western ones isn't a good comparison.
> If these next-generation LWRs are so economical, why isn't someone building them at scale? The standard response is political opposition but what about China?
In the West, it's negative perception that largely predates widespread public awareness of climate change. As for China, it looks like China's getting in on the nuclear game too, precisely because of air pollution concerns. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pr...
> delusional as climate deniers
Yeah, no. Even if us supporters of nuclear power are wrong, we don't need to be compared to people who are on the level of flat earthers.
You missed the point about how this is a completley made up number and even if it wasn't, nuclear power plants (vs emissions from burning fossil fuels) would only address a small portion of deaths anyway.
> Just because something needs government subsidies doesn't make it bad.
No one said bad. Try "uneconomical".
> Also, comparing a shoddily built and designed Soviet plant to modern Western ones isn't a good comparison.
Ah yes, nuclear proponents love to exclude Chernobyl as an outlier because they have no answer for it. In this case, it was a "shoddily built and designed Soviet plant".
So anyone who pays attention to regulation in the United States (and elsewhere) should be aware of the "revoling door", which is also called "regulatory capture". This is where in a given regulated industry (eg oil and gas, pharmaceuticals) people will work for the regulator then private industry then the regulator and so on to the point where that regulation becomes ineffective.
We see another clear example of the Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit being staffed by all ex-patent lawyers who weirdly pretty much side with patent holders every time.
Part of the problem with nuclear is the human component. It's easy to ignore maintenance in the interests of profit. The natural tendency will be for the revolving door to weaken regulation.
So you want to dismiss Chernobyl as being "shoddily built" (and likely poorly maintained) but that's exactly what would happen with nuclear power regulation.
How about a non-Soviet disaster: Fukushima. What will be the reason to dismiss that one? Earthquakes? One in a million natural disaster? Some other reason to exclude another inconvenience?
No, some of us actually have operated a reactor for a living, and have first hand experience with the technology, and most of the issues people like to discuss. In my case, I served in the US Navy in nuclear propulsion. This whole debate seems crazy. Truth is the tech works, and it should be inexpensive compared to burning fossil fuels. Then there is the absolutely incredible difference in energy density - a two 13mmx13mm fuel pellets contains roughly the same energy as 1 ton of coal, or 260 gallons of oil. As far as renewables go, it has to be much worse for the world to build the 1650 wind turbines, wire them, and so on that it takes to match a typical single civilian reactor. To those of us who have worked with the technology, we know it could really change the world's carbon problem.
The reason the cost is so high - and remember, the cost of technology usually goes down over time in a normal functioning market, is hyper-regulation at every level of government. From mining and refining fuel to building plants to operating them, there is an insane amount of regulation and litigation over that regulation. The over-regulation argument is really annoying, mostly because it is true.
It's also true that there are some issues around dealing with waste. Most of these are easily solved, but will not be for the same over-regulation reasons. We've taken perfectly good tech and through the power of bureaucracy, made it unworkable.
Ah, the US military, famous for building and operating things at low cost.
> Truth is the tech works
Nuclear propulsion works because it has the US military to secure it but more importantly, a carrier or a submarine benefits from not carrying fuel in a way that has nothing to do with economics. You power a submarine with nuclear simply because there's no other way for such a submarine to spend months at sea without refueling.
You say the tech works. OK, but so what? That has almost nothing to do with anything. In fact you're extrapolating the military use case for using nuclear energy for propulsion and saying we should extend that to civilian commercial power generation.
As for the rest about over-regulation, the first point is that you have to deal with the political and legal reality. But really it's a smoke screen because proponents of nuclear power like to talk about operating costs while ignoring capital expenditure (which is massive). From a total cost per kWh over the lifetime of a nuclear power plant, it's not really that cheap.
Reality: regulatory compliance is the bulk of the cost.
Naval reactor "engineering laboratory technicians" (SMAGs) are reputed among submariners as habitual liars. Strange but true.
This is just dismissing the argument without addressing the assertion that the vast majority of cost in building nuclear is imposed by overly burdensome regulation.
> Naval reactor "engineering laboratory technicians" (SMAGs) are reputed among submariners as habitual liars.
From personal experience, ELTs were held to the exact same zero tolerance for lies standard I was. If you were caught by anyone lying you were out. Rank didn't even mater, nor did it matter if they were nukes or not. If you lied and it was caught, nuclear career over. I watched many people end their careers over how many push-ups they completed in a fitness test, covering for a buddy who was out with a girl when they shouldn't have been, lying about getting a tattoo, or even lying about what they ate for lunch. It was absolutely brutal.
Just an FYI, acidburn is a reactor scientist. It feels a bit silly to call them a "fanboy". Also, I can verify they care deeply about climate change.
I'm also not personally actually aware of any nuclear fan boys or scientists that are climate deniers. They just argue "nuclear + renewables" vs "renewables". Why's that so hard to get? They aren't arguing for coal, oil, or natural gas like climate deniers do.
We let the US nuclear construction industry die, so it's pretty expensive to rebuild a workforce with the skills to build new nuclear plants, and that has contributed to the cost of nuclear power rising above some other power sources [1], but that's only because the cost of CO2 pollution isn't accounted for, which is a massive subsidy for fossil fuel power producers.
[0] https://ourworldindata.org/data-review-air-pollution-deaths
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_electricit...
Ah yes, the Soviet reactor that was built with a known fatal design flaw, then operated well outside of safety parameters during an experiment, is the be-all end-all of nuclear safety.
Are you comparing to coal-fired plants? I'm talking about solar and wind.
As for fossil fuels, the expected deaths and environmental from nuclear accidents are - well, TBH, I don't know the math for that, but I would expect it would be on the order of magnitude of the extra deaths from fossil fuel electricity generation.
> I mentioned the solutions
I will actually look into that. However, the website says: "Finland ... No other country has yet reached the implementation phase of final disposal. ... final disposal of high-level spent nuclear fuel has not yet been launched anywhere."
So, that's not what's being used so far. This company's new approach - maybe it's great, I don't know, but it needs to last thousands of years, right? That's a very high bar - and a significant maintenance and hazard-management burden going forward.
> Lazard are a bunch of kooks.
That's a pretty strong claim. But - since I'm not an expert, I can't outright dismiss it. They're a popular source for a "bunch of kooks"... care to elaborate?
> Look at Hualong One costs.
I would look into them, if I could.
The waste is completely solid and can be safely buried and forgotten. Is that ignorance?
How many industries are there where the list of notable accidents has such few fatalities? I mean, have you actually looked at the accidents on that list? The vast majority of them are basically garden-variety industrial accidents--and there's only so many because people are minded to exhaustively list every mishap that occurs at a nuclear power plant in a way that they're not for, say, a coal power plant.
Nuclear has had non-negligible probability of accidents, including dangerous accidents. The expected damage of the dangerous accidents is millions dead and injured, and potential destruction of very wide ecosystems.
An accident in a coal power plant mean a bunch of coal burning. Which is bad, but several orders of magnitude less.
... And that's all while ignoring the question of waste management; and damage to reactors due to attacks at wartime.
Now, has technology improved in recent decades? I'm sure it has, to some extent. But the credibility and trustworthiness of the organizations building nuclear power plants has not improved, certainly not to the level at which lay-people - like myself - are willing to take their word for it. And that includes key world state governments.
We can look past the damage caused by an accident at a coal plant and just count the damage caused by ordinary routine operation of coal plants and quickly reach damage figures that eclipse every nuclear accident in history combined.
Your second paragraph suggests that we are not at that point yet.
But to be less facetious - after the regulatory systems in the relevant country reach a state of high trustworthiness and no indications of 'capture' + a few decades' buffer for the trustworthy regulation's effect to permeate.
And this is ignoring the question of chances of damage by war and the issue of waste management, so maximum over the minimum period for each of these 3 considerations.
6:08 here: https://youtu.be/0kahih8RT1k
Writeup explaining this with lots of actual scientific references at the bottom here:
https://whatisnuclear.com/blog/2020-10-28-nuclear-energy-is-...
People who say uranium will last 50 years either aren't aware of breeder reactors, which have been the long-term plan for nuclear fission since the 1940s, or they're misleading you. We found a lot more uranium than expected in the interim so they have been put off for a while. But we know they work and have built many.
Now you're saying she's wrong. Very wrong. And you're a nuclear reactor physicist (thanks for comment!) Am I going to go read all of the relevant references for myself and study the state of the art well enough to understand it all? No, I'm not because I'm not a policy maker or advisor.
I feel like there is a legitimate problem with science communication, especially where it can influence government policy.
Don’t get discouraged. This is all part of the process of finding and disseminating knowledge.
She states "To make a long story short, they didn't catch on, and I don't think they ever will."
She states her opinion, and there's nothing wrong with that, but (a) others may have a different opinion, and (b) it may be possible to make them more practical if more effort is put into them that has been in the past.
Is that true? What’s the state of breeder reactors today?
Many Breeder type reactors also exhibit natural safety characteristics, where they can both shut down and remove afterglow heat with no external power or user intervention at all. This is because of low-pressure coolants like liquid metal or molten salt. They can handle loss of heat sink, loss of flow, and tranisent overpower (e.g. rod widthdrawal) without the control rods going in. Normal water cooled reactors could not survive such events without melting.
So there's a strong argument to be made that while regular reactors are very safe, breeder reactors can be even safer.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/002954...
But if you don't buy seawater extraction, check out the Weinberg 1959 reference (https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3060564), which contains a calculation for how much earth would need to be moved to power the entire world on granite. They calculate that we'd need granite mining from the crust about the same order of magnitude of the fossil fuel mining operations at that time. Of course, mining granite is far less destructive than mining fossil fuel, so it's totally acceptable.
Recall that there is 20x more nuclear energy in average crustal rock than there is chemical energy in coal, per kg. So to a breeder reactor, it's literally as if the entire earth's crust is made of pure coal, 20x over.
Will that last long enough for ya? :)
And with that kind of energy density, it's all economical to extract.
This very basic analysis suggests that your link is off by at least a factor of 100, which doesn't inspire much confidence in their results.
Geologically, U and Th have been concentrated over the billions of years by about a factor of 1000 in the minerals that have accumulated in continents. Were this not the case, fission power would be completely impractical.
(Whether breeders are practical or competitive is another matter, but then fusion looks pretty challenged in that respect also.)
I think it’s all a PR issue. The public doesn’t really understand and there are a lot of lobbyists pushing every other kind of energy.
Like when a child (or even an adult) says they don't like vegetables and it's pointed out to them that in fact they do like the vegetable called lettuce, so their statement needs updating. Now their attitudes can be reframed.
Fission costs too much. Fusion would cost way more. Promoters of both have lied to the public continuously from day one. We have heard enough.
What's dismaying and frankly shocking is the utter failure of the nuclear industry to mount even a feeble defense in the public eye.
The people you credit with nixing nukes do not have that much influence. What did in nukes was nukes themselves. They cost too much, always have, and the constant drumbeat of violated regulations, slipshod construction, and lax operation all together make everyone eager for alternatives.
And here come renewables, totally safe, work at any scale, cheap and getting cheaper. No one will miss nukes, their always-dodgy cost accounting, their burden on public funding, or their promoters' constant dishonesty.
The two projects that resulted were unmitigated financial disasters. All AP1000 projects in the development pipeline were cancelled and no utility in their right mind will order one.
This is entirely the fission people's fault.
* Adapted from a consultant proverb
blame politicians ffs, not people who don't matter.
Politicians and parties base their platforms on polling data and voting patterns.Sure -- it's a highly inefficient system, and there are plenty other inputs into their behavior.
But at the end of the day, they still have to actually win elections. It's a crap system in many ways but public opinion definitely matters.
There is also the Robert Heinlein story "Blowups happen". I'm just not understanding how this can all be hand waved away.
While Chernobyl killed people from radiation (around 50, with a hotly debated number between 0 and 4000 from long term effects), TMI and Fukushima did not. We have only directly amd definitively linked about 50 deaths to radiation released in commercial fission accidents. It's like a really bad bus crash. And that doesnt even count the social and emotional costs of fear and evacuation, which are large.
But context matters. Particlates from fossil and biofuel cause more death every 7 hours than the high estimate of deaths from nuclears entire history (using 4000 in chernobyl).
So nuclear fission is very safe. It's not perfectly safe, but it is orders of magnitude safer than the average energy source. Oh and it is carbon free so it prevents future deaths from climate change. So yeah.
I assume you're only looking at the slow and expensive nuclear builds?
China is looking to build 150 new reactors to meet its goals.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-11-03/china-is-pl...
We also have ways of making nuclear reactors extremely quickly if we want to get really serious. In the 1970s we started building a facility in Jacksonville Fl capable of delivering 4 large LWRs per year in a shipyard-like factory. The reactors were to be floated off to their sites (the first of which were offshore). They installed the world's largest gantry crane at the facility. Sadly the oil shocks reduced the energy demand where their first customers were (New Jersey refineries) and the effort failed after they received a construction license from the nuclear regulatory commission. Building zero carbon power plant gigafactories like this can solve climate change, you betcha.
https://whatisnuclear.com/blog/2020-01-26-offshore-power-sys...
I've heard this idea that we should "do everything", but I don't get that, why don't we do the best thing as well and as fast as we can?
First of all, we are investing more in renewables right now than nuclear. Much much more.
Second of all, your statement is true for LCOE, but LCOE is an inappropriate metric for systems costs. It does not include the cost of storage, additional transmission lines to reach thousands of distributed wind/solar sites, extra capacity to fill up the storage, the required smart grid tech, etc.
Quoting just LCOE is becoming extremely problematic. Everyone does it, and it's very misleading.
Details of why it's best to also invest in nuclear from a full systems perspective are published and peer reviewed here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.08.006
But what happens if you have to stop your power plant in ten years because its (LCOE-estimated) cost is not competitive anymore?
So based on an biased LCOE computation, you sold your coal-based kWh at a third of it's real cost. Bad for the investor, bad for the climate.
Japan confirms first Fukushima worker death from radiation https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45423575
"In January 2015, the MHLW [Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare] compiled medical knowledge on lung cancer and radiation exposure in a report resulting from a review meeting of medical experts, and published the immediate view similar to that for thyroid cancer. The first claim for case of lung cancer was approved by MHLW in August 2018, and this was also the first case involving death."
--From "Responses and Actions Taken by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan on Radiation Protection at Works Relating to the Accident at TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant 9th Edition (Fiscal Year of 2021)" https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/2011eq/workers/ri/ar/r...
For comparison, the 23 firefighters who died from acute radiation syndrome at Chernobyl got doses as high as 13,400 mSv, almost 2000x higher than this guy.
"The ministry said he had been exposed to about 195 millisieverts (mSv) of radiation. The International Commission on Radiological Protection recommends avoiding more than 1-20 mSv per year, and according to Reuters, exposure to 100 mSv a year is 'the lowest level at which any increase in cancer risk is clearly evident.'" https://time.com/5388178/japan-first-fukushima-radiation-dea...
It it wasn't acute and accumulated over >1 year, then there's a ~0% chance it was from Fukushima radiation.
Competent engineers are perfectly capable of maintaining a nuclear reactor, _technically_ speaking.
Large projects are vulnerable to all vices of human nature though. Idiots in manglement. Greedy people trying to squeeze out more profit. Terrorists. Maffiosi, whether running a country or not. Let's not forget that scale is not just about money or spatial dimensions, but also time...
We have a perfect example: Enerhodar, Ukraine. A working nuclear power plant is in the middle of a war zone right now.
Number of deaths from stored commercial nuclear waste worldwide? zero.
People always ask: "what about the waste?"
Nowadays we answer: "What about it?"
Air pollution and climate change are vastly more serious and challenging problems than the storage of high-level nuclear waste.
There was just a huge twitter thread related to this with like 33k RTs and over 100k likes: https://twitter.com/MadiHilly/status/1550148385931513856
https://www.iaea.org/publications/7112/implications-of-parti...
Also: "safety issues?" Useless to talk about safety issues in a vacuum. Safety issues compared to what?
- Fossil fuels, which are literally guaranteed to fry this planet?
- Wind, water, solar? Great but not sufficient and/or feasible in all locales.
- An imaginary energy source with zero downsides? Let us know once you work out the details.
You point to Fukushima, thanks to which a region was rendered uninhabitable. I point to climate change caused by fossil fuel, thanks to which large swathes of the planet will soon be uninhabitable. I know which one I prefer. I'd prefer ten or a hundred Fukushimas in exchange for what's about to happen to our planet in the coming decades.
I am afraid we can only have one of those attributes.
And figuring out how to build cheap nuclear in the West is actually a pretty complex thing. The US cannot even figure out why their roads and railroads cost many times that of other countries. If they cannot figure that out, then how are they going to solve a far trickier problem?
Nonsense. The strict regulations are why there have been two nuclear starts in the USA since 1978.
I am afraid we can only have one of those attributes.
While I accept that those two things (safe fission power, and cheap fission power) are in obvious tension with each other, your "choose only one" scenario is a false dichotomy.A well-functioning, technologically advanced, and motivated country could easily overcome this. Standardized reactor designs, simplified reactor designs such as the newer molten salt reactor designs, etc.
We have the technology to do this safely and cheaper than we're doing it now; we just don't have the will.
Also, any talk of cost must include not only the short-term kWh cost, but the long term cost -- ie, the terrible cost of climate change that we'll soon be paying.
And figuring out how to build cheap nuclear
in the West is actually a pretty complex thing
Yeah, no arguments there. The US is no longer capable of tackling long term initiatives like this, because any change will necessarily upset the corporations that effectively own the government.Nothing will change until the ice caps melt and half our coastal cities are flooded, and at that point something might happen but probably not anything good.
Because of this, fusion is likely WORSE from the utility's point of view than fission. While fusion reactors are less likely to have catastrophic accidents with large external effects, they are probably more likely to have localized accidents that ruin the reactor. In any case, a fusion reactor will have to be designed to be extremely reliable because repairing it after any accident will be so difficult, as it will be too radioactive for anyone to get in to repair it. All repairs will have to be done remotely.
Containment field failure should leave the components just as radio active as a controlled shutdown as the plasma distinguishes immediately or am i missing something?
A thousand tons of molten, radioactive lithium could easily ruin your day, if ever exposed to air.
But these are all second-order effects. A thousand tons of molten lithium is a big enough hazard even without radioactivated impurities. And even getting the 0.0000001% fraction of dissolved 3H out seems... difficult.
Maybe the next big VC fad after fusion will be radiation resistant robots.
You are in good company. Lawrence Lidsky, the fusion guy at MIT who wrote the famous article "The Trouble with Fusion" back in the 1980s, also switched to advanced fission reactors. His critique of DT fusion is still worth reading. The big issue, the lousy volumetric power density of DT fusion reactors compared to fission reactors, is still a huge albatross around the necks of all these private DT efforts.
Helion, funded by Sam Altman, is doing DD/DHe3 fusion. Non-thermal fusion with direct energy conversion. They are attempting net electricity for 2024.
If someone held a gun to my head and forced me to invest in a fusion effort, it would be Helion.
Every advanced anything company says net electricity by 2024. I'm not holding my breath.
I'd be thrilled to be wrong.
But after the physics comes engineering. Helion's approach is to be more aggressive on the physics in order to greatly ease the grave engineering issues that face DT reactors. I consider these latter issues to be so serious that, overall, I rate Helion as less of a long shot at achieving practical fusion than any of the DT schemes.
Helion potentially avoids or ameliorates all of these problems. Unlike with DT, where 80% of the power is in neutrons, a smaller fraction of power is from neutrons here (particularly when there's enough 3He available to be using that too.) The neutrons from DD fusion are much lower energy than from DT fusion, so they produce much less helium in the reactor materials (helium produced there migrates to tiny bubbles where the pressure grows until it rips the material apart.) With Helion, reactor materials have a reasonable shot at lasting the lifetime of the reactor; this is not true for first wall materials in a DT reactor operating at adequate power density.
Helion's scheme also directly recovers plasma energy, including fusion energy going to ions, as electrical energy, so it can substantially, perhaps completely, avoid the need for turbines and generators.
Helion does not need to breed tritium. All it has to do is capture and store produced tritium from DD reactions (so it can decay to 3He, which would be used), which will be much easier. There is no need for a breeding blanket with lithium, although one could be added if desired. If so, that breeding blanket doesn't have to allow rapid recovery of produced tritium before it decays.
So actually their idea is to put the shield (or the blanket) outside of the reactor, not between the magnets and the plasma. A lot easier to do.
There are still many uncertainties, some because they are secretive and others because they have to figure out a solution.
They seem pretty confident to reach net electricity in 2024, they might be completely wrong on something and/or underestimating the difficulties. We'll see.
The real thing to worry about in neutron irradiation of coils is damage to insulators, not to conductors. Insulators are very sensitive to radiation damage.
That was largely a product of the times, before high magnetic fields could be achieved. ITER has all those problems, but newer ideas do not.
ITER's volumetric power density is 400x worse than a PWR. ARC's is just 40x worse. Lidsky was pointing out DT fusion reactors are always going to be (generously) 10x lower in volumetric power density than fission reactors, due to limits on handling the power flowing through the first wall. Higher magnetic fields let ARC be better than ITER, but still sucking relative to fission reactors.
People today have really forgotten how much people got lied to constantly about nuclear power. France which they like to pull out as this amazing nuclear country built all the reactors they hype up by faking safety checks on nuclear reactors.
It is just really naive to assume every nuclear plant is run by the books.
People complain about over regulation of the nuclear industry. Yeah… they kind of brought that upon themselves.
The only place I have heard of plans to build literally any coal plants at all is in China, but they have not broken ground on them. China also says it will build hundreds of nukes, but has started only a few. It is building out solar and wind farms like nobody's business. China is always happy to cancel plans for what they turn out not to need. They even abandon things they spent big money on that turn out redundant: lately, a record-setting bridge you can read about.
We read about coal plants being shut down and scrapped, everywhere. The only place where coal plants are brought back online is in Europe in response to a regional crisis involving a war. Are you sure you want to stake claims about long-term policy based on emergency response to a war? That seems like a very courageous position to take.
If we lynched a few of them every time a nuclear reactor blew up we'd have a lot fewer energy related deaths and the market would eventually self correct.
It is now cheaper to build a new solar farm to replace a coal plant than just to operate the already built coal plant. It is as cheap to build renewables as to operate an already built and paid for nuke.
Renewables cost is still in free fall. In ten years, renewables will be so cheap that overbuilding 10x, 20x, will be cheaper than operating a nuke.
What do we do at night?
Build storage for the solar plant? That's more expensive than a nuclear plant of the same capacity.
Build long range high voltage power lines? Again, more expensive than building a nuclear power plant of the same capacity.
People have been spoiled by the incredible energy ROI, portability and responsiveness of fossil fuels and think everything has the same capacity.
It doesn't.
By the time we need storage (after enough renewable generation is built to charge it from) storage will be very cheap. It will not be made of lithium batteries.
Storage is easy. It is just now an overwhelmingly better use of capital to build generating capacity, to displace carbon combustion, than to build storage. It is only after you have more than enough to displace almost all your carbon combustion that storage is a very useful at all.
Reactors have been ready for 80 years.
We keep putting them off because nuclear is scary and vaporware tech will save us.
Here we are, yet again, 10 years away from the green nirvana that was promised every 10 years since the 80s. Meanwhile Germany is building coal plants again and Britain has melted.
I am not committing suicide because of your fetish for solar panels and wind turbines.
>It is only after you have more than enough to displace almost all your carbon combustion that storage is a very useful at all.
I guess we can just turn society off at night.
Germany is not, in fact, building coal plants. Germany is building wind and solar farms.
Until you have enough renewables to charge your storage, you burn NG at night. It would be stupid to burn NG to charge up storage, as stupid as to burn NG when you have storage charged and ready.
Sounds good. Let's build nuclear reactors until we replace all energy generation with them. Dwelling on might-have-beens is to choose collapse after all.
We already need it. During summer we have an overabundance of energy. It would be so nice to have it stored and used in winter, wouldn't it?
Oh wait. "Cheap storage" in no way, shape or form translate into efficient storage. You might have to cover half of Europe in batteries to store just a few weeks worth of energy.
Long term storage doesn't need to be efficient, because the number of charge/discharge cycles is small and the "cost of inefficiency" is proportional to the number of such cycles.
In reality the nuclear lobby heavily got politics to relax safety requirements, operators are corrupt and cut costs at every corner, inspections are not performed at all or not thoroughly, and when important decisions are being made, like where to store the waste, it's where politicians in charge find it convenient, and not where scientists and engineers actually recommend. Then you end up with metal containers in a salt mine, rusting away because thirty years ago who could have known the connection between salt and oxidation.
> Anyway let's ~~just~~ do fission you guys.
So I agree with you. Let's do fission, but not _just_ fission. Let's put a lot of money into it and bring down the costs. The cost of climate change clearly far outweighs the cost of nuclear plants and waste. And that the waste really isn't a problem, as you yourself have extensively written about. These arguments always go "nuclear vs x" and honestly I want to see "fission + fusion + solar + wind + hydro + batteries." I don't see why we can't have it all. The zero sum arguments seem to make such a dream more difficult to achieve.
Also, good to see you back. Always glad to see your input on these posts.
Still, I do feel that some fusion hype is partially due to people not giving fission enough credit though.
Happy to be back, thanks!
But one note, I don't think fusion has the same uphill battle that fission does. You mentioned that the fission industry just hasn't been able to properly demonstrate what they can do, but I don't think this is entirely it. We do have to consider the decades worth of campaigning and lobbying by coal and gas that went after nuclear. That these campaigns even infiltrated the biggest green lobbying groups: Sierra Nevada and Green Peace. Fusion doesn't have this same battle to overcome. I'm in the state just south of you and we're very pro green, but our green politicians still talk about fission and "the dangers." Hanford is still discussed with a lot of fervor. Such history and momentum doesn't exist with fusion other than "20 years away." I understand why a lot of people have effectively given up and why a lot of climate scientists don't bring it up, but will admit that they aren't against fission (usually with that precise wording). Honestly, I think it is more on the climate scientists at this point to be vocal about it.
Honestly, I think it is more on the climate
scientists at this point to be vocal about it.
I think you hit the nail on the head here.It's understandable that science-illiterate, climate change-denier types fear fission. The fossil fuel industry has done an excellent job percolating their pro fossil-fuel agenda and fomenting fear of the unknown. This is the unavoidable enemy.
The only way to counter this would be for green types (Greenpeace, etc, as you say) and climate scientists to unite and promote fission. I do not think this is remotely likely, but it is the only thing that would remotely stand a chance of countering the fossil fuel industry in the battle for public mindset and votes. I would be absolutely stunned if this happened before billions are displaced due to fossil fuel-caused climate change, and I actually don't think it will happen even then. The status quo will continue as long as the fossil fuel companies remain rich... so, basically until civilizational collapse.
Simply put, fission got an extremely raw deal. It was stabbed in the back and buried by the people who should have supported it, based on their stated goals and beliefs.
Nothing can survive that.
Even with the support of greens, government, scientists, etc this is going no where.
Nuclear fission is dead, why trying to revive it? What's the point?
building a fission reactor takes one or two decades
and its kWh is costlier than alternatives
It didn't and doesn't need to be that way. Obviously we need strong regulatory oversight over nuclear power, but a big part of the cost is the need to satisfy incredibly hostile regulations imposed by politicians who are (a) pandering to public fear (b) heavily influence by the fossil fuel industry.Also, talking about kWh cost in the short term is... missing a large portion of the point. Burning fossil fuels is only "cheap" if all the long term damage is ignored. Let's talk about how cheap it is once we start truly paying the price for climate change to the tune of billions of lives and many quadrillions of dollars.
> It didn't and doesn't need to be that way [..] a big part of the cost is the need to satisfy incredibly hostile regulations [..]
(Alleged over-)regulation is only part of the story.
"analysis, done by a team of researchers at MIT, is remarkably comprehensive. For many nuclear plants, they have detailed construction records, broken out by which building different materials and labor went to, and how much each of them cost. There's also a detailed record of safety regulations and when they were instituted relative to construction. Finally, they've also brought in the patent applications filed by the companies who designed the reactors. The documents describe the motivations for design changes and the problems those changes were intended to solve."[0]
"while safety regulations added to the costs, they were far from the primary factor. And deciding whether they were worthwhile costs would require a detailed analysis of every regulatory change in light of accidents like Three Mile Island and Fukushima"
[0] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/11/why-are-nuclear-plan...
I presume the problem is not a lack of engineering talent in America.
Here's the former head of the US Nuclear regulator talking about how he worked to reduce safety regulations to make it easier to build nuclear plants. Now he thinks no new nuclear power should ever be built: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/i-oversaw-the-us-nucl...
Our perceptions of risk are massively skewed by the (literally) explosive nature of nuclear disasters compared to this silent holocaust to which we’re shockingly normalized.
From Our World in Data [2]:
> Nuclear energy, for example, results in 99.9% fewer deaths than brown coal; 99.8% fewer than coal; 99.7% fewer than oil; and 97.6% fewer than gas. Wind and solar are just as safe.
That’s per unit of energy generated.
Curiously, while most can likely name Chernobyl and Fukushima (perhaps fewer Windscale and Three Mile Island), what of the Banqiao Dam disaster, which killed an estimated 171,000 people the 1970s?
All that said, extrapolating the lethality of nuclear generation to a world with many more nuclear plants is fraught, precisely because there are so few data points.
There’s no escaping the fact that these are incredibly complex and expensive machines, which can fail in unexpected ways, no matter how scrupulously they’re designed to be passively safe — especially when compared to a solar PV park.
[1]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00139...
> and its kWh is costlier than alternatives
> It didn't and doesn't need to be that way. Obviously we need strong regulatory oversight over nuclear power, but a big part of the cost is the need to satisfy incredibly hostile regulations imposed by politicians who are (a) pandering to public fear (b) heavily influence by the fossil fuel industry.
That is not true, there was an HN submission which broke down the cost of nuclear construction (am on mobile and can't easily find it right now) and cost is largely dominated by construction cost, which to a large degree (>50%) are the same as a regular thermal power plant. Regarding regulations, the nuclear lobby is actually very strong, they even managed to reduce regulations for the steam-generating cycle compared to other power plants (I think this was in the US).
> Also, talking about kWh cost in the short term is... missing a large portion of the point. Burning fossil fuels is only "cheap" if all the long term damage is ignored. Let's talk about how cheap it is once we start truly paying the price for climate change to the tune of billions of lives and many quadrillions of dollars.
But the comparison is not to fossil fuels, the comparison is to renewables. If renewables are cheaper and faster (which is the case) they will enable us to move of fossil sources faster than nuclear, so the overall emitted CO2 is less.
Solution: build nuclear cores as close to existing coal plants as possible, shut the coal plant down, and move everything from the steam boiler to the wires to the nuclear plant.
Repeat until no coal.
People keep on parroting this, but could you list what these "incredibly hostile regulations" entail?
The only "new" thing I know of is the requirement in certain places (like in Sweden) to have ICSS, Independent Core Cooling System, to prevent a Fukushima situation, plus to prevent a meltdown caused by what happened at Forsmark Nuclear Plant in Sweden 2006[1]
ICSS isn't that expensive BTW. Vattenfall cited the cost of adding ICSS to their 5 reactors to about 3 billion SEK in 2020. That's about 300 million US dollars with today's exchange rate.[2]
[1]: https://analys.se/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/forsmark-incide...
[2]: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Swedish-reactors...
$300m seems pretty expensive to me as a cost to add to what is already the safest energy source in the world by terawatt-hour produced[0]. One-fifth the death rate of rooftop solar. 0.025% as dangerous as oil. Every terawatt-hour of energy a coal power plant produces results in as many deaths as one hundred Fukushima "situations."
[0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/494425/death-rate-worldw...
Considering a single reactor costs €11-19 billion[1][2] to build in Western Europe currently (Olkiluoto 3, Flamanville (we haven't seen the final bill for that one yet)), an additional 300 million dollars is a drop in the bucket and not the thing that will make the project go from viable to nonviable.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant#... (final)
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan... (projected, not final)
Step 2: Nuclear reactors are so expensive it makes no sense to provision new ones when renewables are just around the corner! Just keep the current coal power plants running while we take another decade to increase solar grid capacity by a few terawatts.
Step 3: Go to step 1.
See also; heap fallacy. Seriously, coal power generation is so bad that if we had to reduce safety regulations to the point that we were having a Chernobyl-level meltdown every month to replace all coal with nuclear plants, we would be significantly better off for it. It's not even close. We could literally completely deregulate safety of nuclear power plants and be safer overall.
(Per the stats I shared earlier, coal power kills 100,000 people per thousand terawatt-hours produced. The world produces roughly 44,000 tWh of coal energy, resulting in 4.4 million deaths per year. Casualty estimates of Chernobyl vary wildly, but even the most pessimistic estimate produced by Greenpeace, avowed anti-nuclear activists that they are, only totals 200,000. Coal power is almost twice as bad as having a Chernobyl every month)
E.g.: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-power-could-heat-your-h...
https://www.powermag.com/district-heating-supply-from-nuclea...
Moreover nuclear are slow moving, they typically don't load follow, so even with a combined nuclear/renewables you still either need significant overcapacity or some sort of peaker. So you haven't actually solved the variation problem.
Finally, because cost for nuclear is largely dominated by capex (construction cost, both in dollars and CO2 foodprint), not running the nuclear plant as close to capacity as possible will even more increase the price and also reduce the CO2 lifetime emission. In usual comparisons which puts nuclear on par with renewables, nuclear is assumed to run essentially 24/7 while solar/wind are based on some statistical uptime. If we operate a nuclear not close to capacity its lifetime carbon footprint becomes significantly worse.
Which is not entirely true: https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12...
Even older designs could do load following.
To be blunt: if the sun is shining and it's windy, no-one really wants to buy a nuclear plant's output. Not at an agreed fixed price, or possibly at any price.
The idea of nuclear getting paid the same price - or worse, an index-linked price - for the lifetime of the plant, regardless of what the future holds, and even on those sunny and windy days, just seems horrendously anticompetitive.
If nuclear is as necessary, competitive and flexible as some make out, then go right ahead and build your plant(s). Just don't expect taxpayers to underwrite anything.
Energy isn't just about generation
> If nuclear is as necessary, competitive and flexible as some make out, then go right ahead and build your plant(s). Just don't expect taxpayers to underwrite anything.
By the same logic taxpayers shouldn't underwrite any renewables: they are significantly slower than nuclear, and have literally zero base load capacity.
The cost for offshore wind projects has fallen so fast in the UK that the many of the latest projects don't need subsidies, see this report from Imperial College (London)[0], in fact they'll be paying the government, see this article from Bloomberg.[1]
I'm pretty sceptical about the phrase 'base load', when it comes up, such as in a HN discussion[2] from a last week, it seems to be used to describe wanting to choose slow and/or expensive power plants.
EDIT: See also this[3] recent HN discussion, in which it was pointed out "California has put emphasis on renewables and if the nuclear power station isn't guaranteed to provide base load then it's too expensive to operate"
[0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/200353/offshore-wind-power-c... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/high-powe... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32152588 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31610996
I'll have to check that. Sensational news usually omit quite a few important details.
> I'm pretty sceptical about the phrase 'base load', when it comes up, such as in a HN discussion[2] from a last week, it seems to be used to describe wanting to choose slow and/or expensive power plants.
No. It means that wind and solar literally produce zero output when there's no wind or there's no sun.
However, life goes on: trains run, homes are being heated, businesses operate, factories produce goods. This is base load.
So, to cover a wind farm or a solar farm that produces inadequate power you need to get that power from somewhere.
Where from?
And this is the question that renewables enthusiasts just brush off as not important.
"We can store energy". No. We can't. Not in the amounts required.
"We just build more". How much more? Does this "more" remain cheap then? Yea, you can transmit it from afar, but it's no mean task in itself. And not cheap either.
But sure. "It's all about keeping slow power plants". What the hell does "slow" even mean in this context, when we're talking about wind/solar which can't even be properly used in load following precisely because they are extremely slow.
This is not universally true. Looking at South Korea's construction times for example[1], you'll see that it's averaging between 5-7 years per reactor, all the way into the 2000s and 2010s. Japan shows similar numbers[2], and they're currently in the process of restarting their nuclear investments following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi. Same story for China[3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_South_Korea#B...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_rea...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_rea...
Energy density.
Ha ha, Greenpeace has already per-emptively decided they hate fusion too.
Spend 1/4th that on solar or wind subsidies and you get vastly more carbon free energy sooner without any concerns for politically inconvenient disasters. 1 nuclear reactor can be quite safe, but 500 of them is 500 times the risk. Even a largely non issue Fukushima style disaster is still a major political and economic issue.
Fission is quite useful, and I hope it continues to provide largely carbon free energy into the future. It’s just not a great use of the resources required to make a real difference.
The outlook for Fusion over the next few decades doesn’t look very good, but it’s also received vastly less investment. It’s IMO a low odds but low cost bet that might pay off but probably won’t.
> Spend 1/4th that on solar or wind subsidies and you get vastly more carbon free energy
Have you done the math, or are you just making that figure up? One single LWR generates from 1GW onwards. Do you know how much solar you need to generate the same amount of power? And that's disregarding the obvious issues with non-constant energy output.
Plus - solar and wind, if you factor in the energy required to manifacture the components necessary for their operation, have negative EROI. https://energyeducation.se/wind-and-solar-energy-are-neither...
I have literally no idea why people think that solar and wind are a solution to the energy problem. It's like nobody has actually looked into the math and said "wow this makes me feel good so I'll support it". Let me repeat it, solar and wind have _negative_ EROI. If you invest in solar and wind, you're net losing energy.
> 1 nuclear reactor can be quite safe, but 500 of them is 500 times the risk
Modern nuclear is exceptionally safe. Europe is switching to freaking _coal_ in an effort not to freeze this winter. Statistically, they're killing hundreds of times more people than if they switched to nuclear at the right time. They're shutting down most of their nuclear for unknown reasons as well.
Ran the numbers, people are installing solar without any subsidies. If you look at what subsides could achieve for grid scale solar it gets crazy.
Also, there is no way solar and wind can have negative EROI simply on a cost basis. There is simply no way for an unsubsidized energy source to have a negative EROI and be the cheapest energy source. You believe there is an option for sub 1c/kWh power to be supplying energy to crease that equipment and nothing fits the bill.
You might argue multiple major disasters might result in more reactors being shut down as knee jerk reaction, but shutting down 500 additional reactors is 5x more expensive than shutting down 100.
I wonder if this is more a marketing thing. Fission has a bad rep so people try to evade it by getting funding for fusion or SMRs (I know this is fission too) instead. Which people don't associate with classical nuclear reactor tech. Even though it's probably better to just put that money towards a new AP1000 from a cost perspective.
The only way it could happen is if the feds took on construction risk.
Um, yes until you factor in failure rates due to incompetence + natural failure. Chernobyl, look it up, massive cost, massive loss of land, death/cancer rate of all exposed nearly 100%.
Until you can solve the "corrupt bureaucrat cuts corners he doesn't understand" problem, and also demonstrate that the failure of a single reactor doesn't cascade and cause every reactor to blow (if you increase the density of reactor distribution a single fallout has the potential to cascade to every reactor).
I remain skeptical about the fuel waste issue being solved, I've heard that a number of times and its not exactly been true, what is usually meant is that the fuel can be re-used somewhat indefinitely, after being repurposed in special containment facilities, not that the spent fuel safety issue is resolved.
And, it won't even solve the climate change issue - even after going 100% electricity and/or renewable fuels, we still have a considerable chemical infrastructure to resolve, and we still have the heat waste issue to resolve (making things electrical doesn't solve energy and chemical expenditure affecting weather patterns, albeit it is better than pumping CO2), an infrastructure which will need to be utilized to create said nuclear reactors.
Climate change will slowly roast us all to death, a nuclear failure will, instantly fry us all to molten pulp, I know which one I prefer.
Pretty sure the death rate is 100% for exposure to literally anything given enough time...
If you believe that even the worst nuclear accident at power plant will "instantly fry us all to molten pulp" in any appreciable range (while climate change is worldwide), the you are mistaken
> death/cancer rate of all exposed nearly 100%.
It is completely untrue. Even among https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_liquidators it is not true.
I am not wrong, in a world dotted with miniature fission reactors, as the most extreme pro-fission people would like to favor. If you can build one in space, and it powers the whole earth, that's obviously a very different story than building them every city block.
I am also not wrong about the effects of radiation on the human body, when used as a bomb nuclear weapons literally melt people into goo, ofc with a reactor there are various safeguards but the thing causing the flesh-melt is still occurring, so maybe less instantaneous melt and more gradual boils and blisters leading to severe internal cancers as your cascade of nuclear reactors around the city all blow in a beautiful chain reaction...
> It is completely untrue. Even among https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_liquidators it is not true.
It's not untrue if you define exposed, not to be disingenuous, but those actually exposed to the reactor meltdown, did not survive. Those experiencing second hand exposure in e.g. the town, obviously did not all drop dead, but had increased risk of cancer, death, and those globally exposed, well many fewer dead or at risk of cancer.
So unfortunately when speaking so imprecisely it actually is true, just not in the way you imagine. Even your wikipedia article admits among the liquidators the death rate was almost at least 20% by some estimates, and I would presume these people are wearing some protective equipment, so calling them "exposed" is somewhat disingenous in and of itself...
For example nuclear bombs melting flesh is because of the extreme heat, nothing that is unique to the nuclear process.
You'd be a more effective advocate for anti-nuclear viewpoints by learning some stuff first.
And I think you maybe are more ignorant than you care to admit as well:
"is that a very appreciable fraction of the energy liberated goes into radiant heat and light"
https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/med/med_ch...
To me that doesn't sound like "oh man the temperature in the room just went up", more like "oh man I just got a really bad sunburn".
That's exactly what I said in my previous comment:
For example nuclear bombs melting flesh is because of the extreme heat, nothing that is unique to the nuclear process.
You see exactly the same "flash burn" characteristics from other very hot weapons eg thermobaric explosives.
The unique thing about nuclear bombs is their scale and the fallout afterwards (both of which are horrific). That "melting flesh" thing is caused by the extreme heat, not by some magic "it's nuclear" thing.
Physically as well as "mechanically", I suppose, they are very different things. Heat cannot travel at the speed of light, light can. Light can impart heat, but it is a partical-wave with various properties, heat is a general statistical statement about a set of particalls. They are not the same thing at all.
Now, as for how a sunburn works, it's not about heat. The reason you wear sunblock even on a temperate day (cold, even) but with lots of sun, is because UV light, not heat, burns your skin.
So, yeah, actually, this is different from a pure thermobaric explosive, if you want to get technical.
Now I understand you want to argue about whether "melting flesh" is unique to nuclear bombs - I never said it was. The output of a nuclear weapon, or reactor, is pretty darn unique, compared to a traditional heat thermal heat source. I don't think I ever even implied that there was some magical property of nuclear weapons which makes them "melt flesh".
You claim to be anti-nuclear yourself but you seem more interested in classifying the possible things which could be flesh melting, and/or you seem to have little to no knowledge of actual physics, thus I have extreme trouble taking you at your word.
Heat is just longer wavelength electro magnetic radiation than visible light.
UV is shorter wavelength EM radiation, so same thing (not quite sure why we are talking about sunburn though).
It outputs a bunch of other EM radiation too. That's what an EMP explosion is - one desiged to maximize EM radiation in frequencies likely to destroy electronic equipment.
I sort of assumed people on HN knew this.
Yeah, obviously direct exposure to core kills. In the same way being pulled through hydropower turbine kills, and ending in furnace of gas/coal/wood heated power plant will kill you.
Nuclear power still has vastly lower death ratio per produced energy than other ways generating power anyway.
> I am not wrong, in a world dotted with miniature fission reactors, as the most extreme pro-fission people would like to favor.
You would be still wrong. Building atom bomb factories doubling as power plants (Chernobyl design) in every city, and then deliberately triggering such catastrophe in every single one still is not getting this result.
With miniature fission reactors - also not.
You would not get "instantly fry us all to molten pulp" even in case of deliberate use of all nuclear weapons by omnicidal world government trying to murder as many people as possible.
My concern is - catastrophic chaining failure of nuclear plants, which I must assume you would not think would be a good thing, and would cause 'grave public harm', better? Not arguing over exactly how flesh melted the general populous is.
If you remove "instantly fry us all to molten pulp" and replace with "fry us to molten pulp", that may be more true, I don't know that the general public will care much if it is 10% of the populous or 100% of the populous who is getting fried by radiation burns and subjected to carcinogenic materials which we have no methods to contain, effectively it might as well be everyone.
> hydropower turbine kills, and ending in furnace of gas/coal/wood heated power plant
Sure, but we can drain water, and we can put out fires (water, flame retardants). We can manage these systems. Nobody but the most crazy out-of-touch pro-nuclear person is going to try to claim that we can directly control neutrons, free particles, or the half lives of deadly carcinogens, or that we can filter them from our water supplies.
That would not happen even in an outright full scale nuclear war.
Exact way of dying (starvation, frying, flash frying, whatever) is not so important to me.
> catastrophic chaining failure of nuclear plants
That is also not going to happen. Even misdesigned soviet atomic bomb factory operating in insanely unsafe mode by incompetents managed to avoid this.
> Nobody but the most crazy out-of-touch pro-nuclear person is going to try to claim that we can directly control neutrons, free particles, or the half lives of deadly carcinogens, or that we can filter them from our water supplies.
The same applies to flood from collapsed dam or emitted CO2 or radiation emitted by coal power plants.
> Dams failing have killed way more people than nuclear ever has.
And this solely due to one incident under communism where damn was not maintained.
But its much, much worse than that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
If had the same risk management mindset for dams as we do for nuclear, we would also be banning hydroelectic.
1) Reduced need for energy storage. Right to repair for everything, write code that is efficient and lower power, distributed systems which don't require complex centralized systems to run. Taxes on unused compute cycles to help create incentives for this, perhaps.
2) For actual energy storage, something like the sand heat system recently put into use in Scandinavia, or the mechanical earth dams (store energy in potential energy mass, less dangerous than an actual water dam, a lot easier to build). For immediate electric storage at scale you can do e.g. saline water storage tanks which hold mild electric charge, who knows maybe there is some inert chemistry which could be devised for a safer transportable version of a lithium ion battery...
3) For energy production, I am a long time advocate of geothermal. There's no real downside, besides digging holes and I guess maybe a well collapse, but you're limited to loss of whatever is in the whole/immediate surrounding in the case of a cave in, there are no engineering problems to solve except pumping water around, which is a well known task. Solar/wind for ships, airplanes, space vehicles, electric/hydrogen for storage/consumption scenarios where the grid is not accessible (remote locations e.g. the poles, alaska, siberia, African/Asian planes)
huh?
Regarding the distributed vs centralized, the reasoning is large data centers are inefficient and could be replaced mostly with local, low power systems which are barely on at all, versus constant-on, constant-ready server rack systems.
a lot easier to build?
This claim seems wrong, given that pumped-storage hydroelectricity is in actual use, when this is purely theoretical.
"mechanical earth dams" gives info about water dams - is it existing even as a theoretic design?
Its a company with as I understand it proven designs.
Besides, the concept is trivial and applicable and replicable by almost anyone. I don't understand why there is so much skepticism around these things...
Has anyone made one operating at major scale? And comparable to say serious pumped storage? At their page I see only "demonstration unit".
I suspect that either it is not solved, expensive or not trivial. And not replicable or there is nothing to replicate or not worth replicating.
For comparison https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elektrownia_Por%C4%85bka-%C5%B... can operate at 500MW for 4 hours, was build in 1979 and is a normal pumped storage battery (large enough to be classified, operated and treated as a power plant).
Because we're been doing neither for 40 years.
This is not a difficult concept.
Money isn't the problem. Manpower and materials are the problem.
Spending manpower and materials on X cannot be spent on Y. Manpower and materials are not fungible - at least not in the nuclear space where requirements are very high.
The manpower and materials that go into nuke construction are mostly the same that go into any civil engineering construction: pouring concrete and forming steel. Concrete and steel and work on them diverted to nuke construction is unavailable for anything else.
I guess most people don't appreciate the relatively tiny fission plant workhorses producing >50% of all zero-carbon electricity in the USA.
At least we have nuclear tiktok influencers nowadays!
How much cooling water does it use? Who'll want to drink it? How much waterwill 'lots more regular old LWR fission reactors' need, and where will it come from? Oh, and let's see the hands of those who want one in their back yard. 'Whoops'.
> It's way easier. It has been working fine since the 1950s.
Gosh, I never heard 'fine' used in that way before. I could paste in a list of dozens of failures, leaks (including tritium), accidents (public and hushed-up). Look away from San Onofre, that was just a one-time expense. Why, I'd even bet it will continue to be "safe, clean, and too cheap to meter", guys. /s
and let's see the hands of those who want one in their back yard. 'Whoops'
Me. Actually I've already lived in the back yard of one. Extremely populous suburb of a major American city.Apparently lots of people don't mind having one in their back yard.
If a fusion reactor loses power, fusion ceases. The reactor shuts down.
If a fission reactor loses power, fission continues. A reactor that cannot be cooled melts down.
I don't think people will be as wary when fail safe reactor designs come off the drawing board and are in use long enough to have their own track record.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2016/08/02/158134/fail-safe...
Well, a comment posting without financials pretty much underlines why more fission reactors don't get built: the nuclear community is insanely bad at pitching to investors without magic on the line. Unfortunately, investors in our society are the closest things we get to planners so we're pretty fucked.
They're already expected to be essential for decarbonizing at scale.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511...
I have plenty of rants about how LCOE is wholly inappropriate as a metric of overall decarbonized system costs. If you look from that perspective, LWRs built by Koreans, Chinese, Indians, or Russians are an incredible deal.
We just need to have the Koreans come over and re-teach us how to build reactors. It's beautifully symmetric because we originally taught them. They've perfected the knowledge, enhanced it, saved it, and can now teach us.
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/workshops/nucogen/presentations...
Much of the uncertainty and cost of a new fission plant is tied to regulatory, permitting and litigation costs. No one's suggesting eliminating regulation, but the near-limitless ability to hold up a project with specious lawsuits could be curtailed.
Protons will become increasingly valuable, after being separated from oxygen.
Wind, solar, battery and some kind of variant of hydrogen economy is bound to stay/evolve and nuclear light to be built with that in mind so it can be more of a complementary technology rather than living in an alternative universe.
In terms of fusion, I'd much rather make the tradeoff of increased cost in order to remove issues of vulnerability completely. I want to be able to not even have to think about / plan for dealing with a meltdown scenario.
I work on it.
I'd like to know where you read that as the entire idea is to build a reactor out of things that don't activate or are very hard to activate. i.e. things that thermalize or reflect neutrons.
Fission reactors produce tons of neutrons too (they kind of have to to work more so than fusion even) and that doesn't leave the containment vessel anywhere near as radioactive as the nuclear waste itself.
Here's two papers about decay heat in ITER: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/092037..., and https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092037961...
I used their data to find power density and compared it the micro modular fission (MMR) fission reactors.
“MMR has a lower decay heat power density than fusion systems like SPARC or ARC, DEMO, or ITER and orders of magnitude lower than other advanced fission reactors as show in the figure below. UNSC's MMR has the lowest decay heat power density at 0.075 W/cm3, less than DEMO's 0.083 W/cm3 in the blanket and divertor. A lower decay heat is more manageable by passive cooling systems, allowing the reactor to dissipate heat more easily and without damaging the reactor. The other aspect to consider is the maximum temperatures that can be safely maintained in the reactor. Gas-cooled reactors like the MMR have all-ceramic cores that can withstand much higher temperatures than a fusion's reactors metals, molten salts, and magnets. MMR's low power density is a paradigm shift in nuclear safety, more foundational than fusion, for it can be accomplished cost effectively today.”
I don't think using ITER as an example here is relevant.
Fortunately none will be built.
The cost of fission comes doubly from the nuclear proliferation risk and the safety risk, neither of which apply at all to fusion. The levels of radioactive waste produced is at basically the same levels as medical practices.
> Plutonium is made by irradiating natural uranium from the dirt with neutrons. Practical fusion reactors have lots of neutrons. Really high energy ones too.
In that case you're intentionally trying to irradiate something, you can do the opposite and engineer for things to not be irradiated, and even then it tends to be long lived low radiation isotopes.
These will all be guarded with pseudo military guns guards and gates just like fission, and monitored by the IAEA.
As for radiological safety, see point about tritium. And google tritium leak nuclear plant for good measure.
Youre right that there is less radioactivity in fusion plants, but maybe not enough less to really matter.
https://www.ap.org/press-releases/2012/part-ii-ap-impact-tri....
And this is why we should not trust any fission-bearing folk. Or apparently fusion-bearing folk either.
Fusion reactors would involve much more tritium than in a fission reactor. In the latter, especially LWRs, tritium comes from rare ternary fission events. In a DT fusion reactor, T is a primary fuel. A 1 GWe fusion plant will burn about 150 kg of tritium a year. To illustrate how much that is: that quantity of tritium would be enough to raise 2 months worth of the average flow of the Mississippi River above the legal limit for drinking water.
If you're putting hunks of uranium inside a fusion pressure vessel it'd be really obvious. Tritium itself doesn't have proliferation risk.
> These will all be guarded with pseudo military guns guards and gates just like fission, and monitored by the IAEA.
No they won't. Because even if you crash a truck into them there's no ecological disaster.
> As for radiological safety, see point about tritium. And google tritium leak nuclear plant for good measure.
The tritium stored in the reactor will be in the microgram range.
> Youre right that there is less radioactivity in fusion plants, but maybe not enough less to really matter.
It's several orders of magnitude less. I think that matters quite a bit.
The neutron flux produced by a fusion reactor will be much higher than in any fission reactor, and it must be absorbed in a shield, to produce heat, which will be the output of the fission reactor.
Choosing an appropriate material for the shield will minimize the quantity of radioactive material that is created per unit of output energy, but it is pretty certain that the radioactivity will not be "several orders of magnitude less".
The best that can be hoped is that it is possible to find a shield material that will produce only very small quantities of long-lived radioactive isotopes, so that, after a storage for not too many years, the radioactivity might decrease to be "several orders of magnitude less".
Nevertheless this remains to be demonstrated.
For example, any piece of steel present near a fusion reactor would produce copious amounts of cobalt 60, but that would decay to negligible radioactivity after a few hundreds years.
Moreover, to ensure the predicted low residual radioactivity, any shield material needs to be free of impurities, which even in very small quantities could produce dangerous radioactive isotopes.
The requirements for advanced purification will greatly increase the cost of the structural materials for fusion reactors. However this is not a new problem. Similar requirements are imposed on the structural materials for fission reactors, but the fusion reactors will not be any better from this point of view.
First, the radioactivity is spread through a much larger volume of material. The cost of dealing with it will have a component related to the volume rather than the total radioactivity. It's not clear that dealing with fusion's waste problem will be cheaper than dealing with fission's.
Second, getting low induced radioactivity, and particularly low production of radioisotopes with long half lives, may require expensively low concentrations of impurities in the reactor materials. For example, the RAFM steel Eurofer 97, a top candidate for a DT reactor construction, contains a small amount of nitrogen. Even this trace caused problems from 14C production pushing the steel over a regulatory limit requiring the steel to be disposed of more expensively due to that 14C content.
(I also have seen a claim from Abdou that the Eurofer 97 for DEMO would cost $3B, just for the raw steel. I'm not clear where this estimate comes from but it could be due to the need to expensively purify the steel of impurities to avoid their activation.)
The tritium being bred in the lithium had better amount to more than micrograms, because that will be fuel. Separating the day's few grams of tritium from the thousand tons of molten radioactive lithium coursing through miles of pipe is an exercise not yet tackled by fusion promoters.
I'm sure the greens will try and tear it down it if it ever comes to commercial viability and start calling it thermonuclear power or some nonsense.
The fusion reactions that are likely to be used in the first fusion reactors are precisely the same as those used in the thermonuclear bombs, a.k.a. H-bombs.
Isn't that a myth though ? Nuclear plants have planned and unplanned maintenance downtime. They actually have enough of these in my country that it's deemed unreliable or as reliable as wind turbines (depends on who you ask).
1. Cost per MW compared to renewables (~$150 vs ~$40 and falling). Here in the UK the government is promising to subsidise this to make it viable.
2. Construction time - average is 10 years, we don’t have that long to wait.
3. Decommissioning is expensive and a long way in the future. Is that cost built into the cost per MW? How can we be sure the money will be protected, and will be enough to cover it?
4. Spent fuel. The project you mentioned isn’t complete yet, but even then it’s a huge liability to leave for future generations to manage indefinitely.
Meanwhile, renewables don’t have these problems and are available immediately. We should be building huge factories to produce wind and solar en masse.
Source for the figures: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSK...
Renewables are too unreliable to act as baseline generation for a country.
In the UK last year for example we had very little wind, so we had to ramp up our gas power output to make up for our shortages in renewables. We burned through much of our gas reserves before the Ukraine war started, because of Renewable power unreliability.
Fission is the replacement for that baseline role that hydrocarbons currently fill, not the unpredictable-but-clean role that renewables fill.
The ideal future has both, with renewables producing as much power as possible and fission running on low capacity and ready to ramp up when renewables fall short.
Moreover nuclear is not the beacon of reliability, Frances nuclear plants were running to only 60% capacity due to maintanance and weather (when it gets hot nuclear plants have to shut down or reduce output significantly). Guess who was picking up the shortfall... German renewables and gas.
Finally, cost is absolutely the main measure: if the cost of nuclear is 3x wind/solar (and the cost of solar is falling exponentially) and you want to replace fossil fuels as quickly as possible the obvious way is to build renewables, you can overbuild 300% at the same cost. At that point you're close to being able to run your grid if you are sufficiently geographically distributed (even without batteries). Moreover in 10 years when your nuclear plant is finished building the price differential is like >5x due to the cost decreases.
Wind is always blowing somewhere. Sun is always out somewhere. Storage is transportable.
Is that actually true? Serious question. That sounds like a claim that seems so obvious, but won't hold up to the degree you might think in reality. Just one scenario I'm thinking of are giant storms that have clouds spanning multiple countries. And in that storm scenario even wind power shuts down to prevent damage.
A few days' would be a lot of batteries, but you don't use batteries for that. A few days' pumped hydro, e.g., is not much at all.
Even liquified hydrogen is about as transportable as LNG, which is shipped all over.
Doing exactly that is presently about a quarter of total global international trade by value.
Their advantages of high energy density, safety, and undemanding environmental and handling requirements (distribution can be performed in temperatures from -40 to +40 celsius by almost untrained teenagers), and effectively unlimited storage duration and volume, far outweigh the energy inefficiency of producing them from atmospheric carbon. Especially once PV gets cheap enough.
Edit: I notice I didn't answer your question. For liquid hydrocarbons, I believe the answer is in the single digit percents, perhaps five percent. For LNG, the energy cost is much higher, perhaps as much as a third of the total energy value.
But making methane is inferior to making ammonia, because extracting the diffuse carbon you need from air takes up energy. It does not displace any more CO2 emission, because somebody will burn it and dump the CO2 back into the atmosphere again.
So, the only reason to make hydrocarbons is for things like your chainsaw or A320 that are not worth replacing immediately.
Most of the time a utility will prefer cheaper local generation, local storage, or transmission-line power before spending on shipped-in synthetic fuel.
The extra power when 3x > mean(x) is just incentive for developing flexible loads and arbitrage.
Fission is around $10/watt with a mostly-plannable capacity factor of 60-80%. Fission is a cakewalk compared to fusion.
Solar is around $0.5/watt with a capacity factor of around 25% and falling rapidly.
The operating and capital costs of a gas plant are around the same with a plannable capacity factor in the high 90s.
So by spending $6 on solar, and $2 on a gas plant. You have $7/watt left over to figure out how to turn free electricity into hydrogen or methane at 50% efficiency and store it for a year.
We already have electrolyzers that work for $0.5 to $1.5 watt at around 50% efficiency.
Hydrogen storage is hard, but that left over $5 per 4kWh/yr should take care of it. If it doesn't, sabatier rractors are getting cheaper too.
The only thing we have to do for people to start using them is stop the coal and gas subsidies.
This is also just one of many options. Salt cavern CAES is similarly viable
Meanwhile people are resorting to paying with their savings to pay the 10-fold increase in their power bills.
One thing I don't understand here is the problem with overproduction. If we actually have excess electricity (as in not needed as electricity later) can't we dynamically use that for active carbon capturing? The efficiency of that process isn't even that important then as the main goal is to remove carbon from the atmosphere with carbon free energy.
Having carbon free overproduction sounds like a good thing to me. It's the occasional underproduction that's hard to handle.
There is no such thing as overproduction, there are only manufacturing bottlenecks in batteries, electrolyzers, and reverse osmosis water plants.
1. https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2022/07/22/were-going-to-...
I'd just like to point out that the US Navy has an excellent track record running nuclear reactors that ramp up to full and down to zero rapidly, in submarines.
The US Navy does not have quite the same financial constraints as commercial land-based power, but constraints still exist.
I fully agree that solar PV and wind, especially PV, are much more atttractive to investors because you can be earning cashflow from your first MW of capacity while you're installing the second (which takes weeks (or days!) instead of years), and you can iterate and scale this all the way to 10 TW or more of capacity, as the demand requires.
It's important to use the real deal-breaking flaws when pointing these things out. The relevant figure is availability because capacity also includes energy that could be produced but was not due to having nowhere to put it.
Availability is 70-80% in France and UK and 80-90% in the US.
But due to the long timeline of refuelling cycles you still need a full baseload backup. So nuclear needs long term storage or other uncorrelated backup more than renewables if anything.
The upside is it's easy to have two uncorrelated nuclear plants, so overprovisioning by 30% is sufficient.
That makes something that is already more expensive than solar with the same overprovisioned net capacity factor, and a green hydrogen plant with capacity sufficient to cover, and full gas backup infrastructure even more expensive though. Probably not enough to cover the costs of hydrogen storage yet or someone would be doing it (ignoring massive nuclear subsidies), but prices of batteries, solar panels, and electrolyzers are dropping rapidly. Hydrogen storage or green methane production only needs to become marginally cheaper to make it start happening even sans subsidies.
This is a fallacy in two ways:
1. Scaling up nuclear projects will decrease construction time and cost. Efficiencies are found by with scale.
2. The opportunity cost of not starting nuclear projects now will surely be worse than attempting 100% renewables. The point is that we can invest in both.
> This is a fallacy in two ways:
> 1. Scaling up nuclear projects will decrease construction time and cost. Efficiencies are found by with scale.
More than half of a nuclear plant is essentially the same as any large scale power plant (goal, gas...). The opportunity for reducing cost through economies of scales is low. Economies of scales work for things build in factories, much less so for construction projects. That is true in general, not just for power plants.
> 2. The opportunity cost of not starting nuclear projects now will surely be worse than attempting 100% renewables. The point is that we can invest in both.
Why? It's the other way around, the actual cost of building nuclear instead of much cheaper and faster renewables causes an opportunity cost, because we can replace fossil fuels much faster building up renewables.
That's under the assumption the available money, hardware and labor of ramping up solar and building nuclear plants directly competes with each other. That's a pretty strong assumption and I highly doubt there is a strong enough link between any of those three for your argument to have significant impact.
E.g. We should be able to drive rapid solar expansion with government money and subsidies while incentivcing big energy carriers to build nuclear plants.
Presumably that's the cheap half of the nuclear plant, because coal/gas plants are pretty cheap to build.
Combined cycle gas plants are cheap because 2/3rds of the power output is from the combustion turbine, which needs no heat exchangers. The steam bottoming part needs two: the boiler running off the exhaust from the combustion turbine, and the condenser to transfer heat to the environment.
You can't directly compare cost per generating capacity, because nuclear, gas, coal etc. are available according to schedule, while most renewables aren't. Adding storage around renewables to make them schedulable raises costs.
The current cost of green hydrogen is somewhere between $2 -> $12. That is the production cost. The market price for green hydrogen sits around $4-$20, since there are multiple industries that demands hydrogen.
For 110 to break even the hydrogen need to cost $3.5/kg, and in order to really displace natural gas, it is estimated that it need to reach $1/kg.
Now I noticed that those $150/MW is not a range, so I took a look. Projected nuclear LCOE costs for plants built 2020-2025 places nuclear around $27/MW to $147/MW depending on financing and country (source: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA's) calculation). Russia has the lowest cost and Slovakia or Japan (depending on financing method) has the highest.
So in summery, it can definitively cost more than $110/MW to produce viable green storage solution, especially in northern countries where low duration lithium batteries is not a working solution for long winter periods with low wind production and the sun is only up for a max few hours per day. Nuclear can also be much cheaper depending on where it is built and how it is financed.
The $147 figure is basically the worst case scenario.
What do you base this on?
In practice, they have done something like 20% within an hour. It was early 2019, there was such a crazy wind that they had to reduce nuclear production also (after already reducing coal, gas etc. to the min).
I think what they really can do is somewhere in between.
sources, it was on l’energeek, but in French.
Renewables even have the advantage that they produce electricity mostly when it’s needed. Photovoltaics during the day and wind during winter when heating is most needed.
None of those problems OP described have anything to do with that overblown statement. Investment may have been removed for FUTURE projects but not for current operation which is highly subsidised by the French taxpayer guaranteeing the fixed price the Government decides on.
Also Germany reactivated those dirty plants also to help France out. The whole European grid is helping the nuclear nation out and will continue to do so until France diversifies its power generation infrastructure.
Yeah it's (usually) planned, but it's a decently long time in which you need those gas plants.
Why not just build solar instead and fuel those same gas plants with hydrogen or methane you plucked from the air with your $20-30/MWh unscheduled electricity?
Plus, you can get solar and storage as an off the shelf item today as a retail customer for less per watt than recent reactors in UK/France or even USA. 8kW nameplate solar and 16kWh storage capacity is about $10k which matches 1kW of net from eg UK projects of around 2.5GW net for 26 billion pounds fairly closely.
Yeah if you live far north or have a long cloudy month in winter you'll be relying on that gas plant, but so does the nuclear reactor. Plus you'll be dumping 10-20kWh/day into the grid on the good days. Provides a decent incentive to figure out how to store it, and even if you're only getting 5c/kWh for it, it'll pay for replacement in 7-10 years or so when prices have dropped another 50-80% without sacrificing your kilowatt.
Nuclear has a very small footprint on a crowded island.
Plus we have Rolls Royce SMRs who have been building nuclear reactors for a while.
You could add as much net capacity as the UK has in nuclear in just above the space used for parking cars.
You could add twice to four times that again just on detached house rooftops.
Even as a commercial installation with no other purpose, a 4km square is hardly an insurmountable barrier.
The initial capital budget of sizewell and hinkley alone could provide 30-80GW of nameplate solar or a rooftop system on every building in the country.
If there are trillions in the pot, by all means go ham with fission, but when low carbon sources are fighting for the scraps left over after subsidizing fossil fuels we have to do the thing that is effective first.
There are always trillions in the pot, because the UK is a sovereign country with its own currency. Money is never the issue.
Therefore it's only overnight costs that matter in a build (and hitting the deadline). The real issue is one of manpower and stuff. We don't make solar panels in the UK. We will make SMRs. Therefore we're not reliant on Chinese manufacture, or the whims of export markets to fund them. A problem we're currently having with gas and oil.
To have security of energy supply over time you have to be as decoupled from world markets as possible. We don't want to be in the situation where we're relying on China for replacement advanced manufactures to keep the lights on.
Solar has no reliable capacity in winter in the UK unfortunately. You wouldn't want to rely on solar with several weeks of grey miserable UK winter weather even with storage. The same with wind, which is still suffering from a degradation in capacity due to the as yet unexplained overall reduction in wind speeds - which may itself be a result of climate change.
> Therefore it's only overnight costs that matter in a build (and hitting the deadline). The real issue is one of manpower and stuff. We don't make solar panels in the UK. We will make SMRs. Therefore we're not reliant on Chinese manufacture, or the whims of export markets to fund them. A problem we're currently having with gas and oil.
> To have security of energy supply over time you have to be as decoupled from world markets as possible. We don't want to be in the situation where we're relying on China for replacement advanced manufactures to keep the lights on.
Spending an amount on computers and steel and exotic alloys and uranium ore and then also spending 10x as much on labour is no better than spending that first amount on foreign solar panels. Far better to overpay for solar panels by developing a local industry, or overpay for solar thermal systems (which are still vastly cheaper than fission).
> Solar has no reliable capacity in winter in the UK unfortunately. You wouldn't want to rely on solar with several weeks of grey miserable UK winter weather even with storage. The same with wind, which is still suffering from a degradation in capacity due to the as yet unexplained overall reduction in wind speeds - which may itself be a result of climate change.
Renewable-derived hydrogen is already at cost-parity with fossil-fuel-methane derived hydrogen in some markets. Renewable-derived methane isn't much further off and is one of many ways of solving the storage issue. When a gas plant (which you need anyway) and the renewables to provide enough net power in winter and a massive overprovision during summer cost a fraction of nuclear there's no point.
Plus your argument about energy security completely precludes nuclear as an option for over 50% of the world as they're not allowed to make their own fuel. There are also about as many countries with a credible manufacturing base for solar panels than countries with viable uranium reserves, and there is more than one chemistry that you can make solar cells with.
Finally being entirely beholden to one of four or five corporations worldwide is no better than being entirely beholden to one of four or five countries with the cheapest solar.
Nothing to the scale of china, but scaling it is far more viable than scaling the nuclear industries.
I'm in favour of renewables, but done in the way that actually makes most economic and environmental sense. In the Uk we threw money at rich people with £15k to install 4kwh solar rigs on their houses. That money would have been much better spent subsidising large industrial installations.
Some industries literally can't turn off production without damaging plant, but if some can then where energy cost is ~30% of fossil/nuclear than it might make sense to over-provision industrial capacity and only run it when the sun is shining.
Do you count in all the subsidies the renewables get from governments, including the production of the solar panels/wind mills, land ownership, utilities and all kinds of tax cuts and preferential treatment? In my country billionaires own massive solar farms and make tons of money at the expense of everyone else.
Can you tell where you are from?
I'm rooting for billionaires to own more and more solar farms please. Let them buy more newspapers and "think-tanks"
Because I'd really like to live on that world where oil has no subsidies, occupies no land and it gets magically transported throught the country
Doesn't make it cheaper, only hides the cost. Subsidies are many times perversive. Prices are communicating something. When Gov messes with it, people and organizations tend to make bad decisions for themselves, society, environment or everything.
You've been saying that for last 20 years. It's pathetic by this point. Best time to start doing things (anything) was 30 years ago. Second best time is now
There are nice vids on YouTube that explain how thorium is no fix for what ails nukes.
Ultimately, nukes just cost too much to build and operate. They are uncompetitive. Now that we have radically cheaper alternatives, we have no desire to engage with the deceitful, slipshod, heavily subsidized builders and operators of nukes, anymore. Never again.
There is a lot of hype about thorium online, but almost all of it is about breeder reactors vs. non-breeders. None of the hype is truly thorium specific.
I wrote up a few pages on it around 2014.
https://whatisnuclear.com/thorium-myths.html
https://whatisnuclear.com/thorium.html
Thorium is often associated with fluid fuel reactors.
Fukushima was build in the 70s, so it might have been a bit outdated (as a layman I have no idea). Was there any significant progress in design of nuclear power plants since then? Can they be shut down more quickly and reliably?
Given enough R&D, could safety of nuclear fission power plants be improved further or is that very unlikely?
In wikipedia it says that only 1 person has died from cancer, while >2000 died from the evacuation itself
It seems that being less aggressive with evacuations and letting some people be exposed to radiation would have actually save more lives
Though maybe that's only in hindsight?. Maybe at the time there was a considerable risk of something terrible but didn't happen?
> Fukushima...
You mean, hit by the most powerful earthquake recorded in Japan, flooded by a tsunami with 13-14 meter-high waves, evacuated, failed to shutdown, had three core meltdowns and several explosions, and resulted in... 1 death from radiation, 2000 deaths from evacuation and 45 radiation-resulted injuries.
I'd say even this outdated design was very, very, very safe.
So far. The population dose will likely cause many more fatal cancers than that (maybe 200?). That those will be impossible to detect above the normal cancer background doesn't mean we can pretend they aren't there.
I know that current statistics regarding nuclear power safety are very good. The reason I am asking is because I often see comparisons between latest or even future renewables technology and decades old nuclear and I am wondering if progress on nuclear has already peaked/stalled.
Fukushima showed us the drastic and long lasting consequences of one little design oversight and that was in an environment the reactors where engineered for.
Personally I can't answer this question with the limited knowledge that I have. It seems like a catch 22 type situation.
I'm tempted to be hopeful and say that nuclear will solve all our problems but seeing how the energy industry got us here in the first place I'm sceptical they have our best interests at heart.
Engineering improves over time, considering we seem to have someone who works in the industry in this thread perhaps they can inform us about current failure rates and risks. My assumption is that due to past failures, extra mitigations have been put into place with modern reactors.
Yes I was referring to oil and gas. While they are not the ones building nuclear power plants as we have seen when a particular part of the energy industry becomes entrenched it has a tendency to use its profits to change the narrative around its downsides.
Because they lose money. Nobody, not the USA, Russia, China, France, Japan, Korea has ever made them profitable. They are always subsidized. The CCP bought Westinghouse AP1000s so they could steal their design and they still couldn't make it work. And you can't blame the environmentalists when it's in China.
Full disclosure: I'm not an accountant, but since I started taking an interest in this subject several years ago I've learned about wishing away decomissioning costs by claiming the plants will last 60 or 100 years. Ask the taxpayers of Oregon what 'stranded costs' are. Making 150 square km of Japan uninhabitable is also a bit spendy. IIRC almost all of the Dept of Energy's budget goes to nuclear.
But, nothing will change because military nuclear is a national security issue and that always trumps every other issue.
Back to fusion: Fusion power plants will be at least as big and complicated as fission plants, so it's never going to be 'too cheap to meter' electricity. I do hold out hope for it to be a drive for space craft though.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511...
nuclear plants save a fraction of their revenue in a trust that pays for decommissioning. for thr vast majority of plants this has been and will be more than sufficient. therr are exceptions but it isnt fair to dwell on them given the other successess.
The dose rates are barely above background already in most of the area around Fukushima. I'm with Elon in that I will gladly eat vegetebles from slightly elevated dose areas because I belive the science that says damger starts at 100 mSv acute/300 mSv annual. Getting an extra 40 mSv in a year is not uninhabitable.
civilian nuclear power has pretty much nothing to do with military nuclear so not sure I follow your point there.
And for the record, here's the full Too Cheap To Meter quote, from a Science Writers Dinner in 1954:
"It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter, will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age"
Are you J** W***? You haven't updated your blog in a while.
That's how it appears but that's not an argument against them. Two things: firstly they are regulated because nuclear fuel can be used for warfare, so when a government gets involved things cost more, that's just an unfortunate fact, secondly they've never been commercialised.
Could you imagine if cars or jumbo jets were built ad-hoc? What would the profit or loss be? A better example, perhaps, is Space X vs NASA. How much does a NASA rocket cost (government controlled), versus Space X (private industry) that has had to industrialise a process? And how much profit does NASA make per launch versus Space X?
Nuclear power stations could be industrialised and would definitely be cheaper.
I challenge anyone to go onto google right and give me a firm number of people that have died from nuclear waste, not just nuclear accidents.
I'll start -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_and_radiation_...
about 200 for all nuclear accidents. Waste itself? Zero? Which is less than people that have fallen down the stairs, tripped over a cat, or choked on a pizza.
Now search for deaths to humans (and wildlife for that matter) from fossil fuel pollution, oil spills, gas pipeline explosions and so on.
As I've said before if we bury it in a mine, and lose the ability to read that it's down there and dangerous, we've likely lost the ability to dig a mine in the first place.
Cooling a 375°C core with ambient water can be done even well into climate change conditions.
As for drought, if reactors are cooled by rivers that can dry up rather than oceans or large lakes, then they'll have to consider switching to dry cooling, which is less efficient but works with almost zero water usage. This would work better with higher temperature reactors than typical water cooled ones.
I also am a huge proponent of using reactors district heating and cooling, so we can put that warm water to good decarbonized uses.
So maybe right know fission is as good as fusion (better because it exists), but space is soon, and fusion is better for space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_PACER
If containment is your concern (though underground blast effects are decently understood, and blast chambers could be constructed with still strongly net economic/energy positive) - this does not need to be built around any population centers. At a cost of 1.5% efficiency loss per 1000 km, UHV power lines can direct it from a single write-off location anywhere on earth. That single location can likely be scaled to supply well beyond the total current global energy production.
The Wikipedia article you liked says it “economically unviable”, but fails to provide a source
(I didn’t click the links)
Edit: Sounds like it might only be counting investment in private companies.
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/04/11/0435231/mit-fus...
This isn't the same kind of problem that most of us are used to dealing with in our daily lives—where the fundamental components, and the fundamental science, that make it all up are well-understood and fairly mature, and what we have to do is come up with creative ways to apply it. This is the kind of "we don't know if any specific avenue of research will ever pay back a positive monetary ROI, but pursuing them is important anyway" science that we need to be doing with or without fusion as a specific goal, because over time, it will produce years or decades of silence, punctuated by small, incremental improvements in our understanding of the universe...and then an amazing breakthrough like practical, commercially-viable fusion power.
But only if we are willing to patiently fund it through those years or decades of boring stuff.
Tokamak output scales with the square of reactor volume and the fourth power of magnetic field strength. Double the field, 16X the output.
Modern REBCO superconductors can support much stronger magnetic fields than ITER will manage. That's why CFS is building a reactor using REBCO which is much smaller than ITER, but should have the same performance. It'll be half the size of JET, which was built in a year. They're planning a net power attempt in 2025 and a lot of independent fusion researchers think they'll succeed.
CFS is a spinoff from MIT, whose Alcator C-Mod had more powerful magnets than any other tokamak in the world.
https://www.ans.org/news/article-3240/mit-ramps-10ton-magnet...
https://news.mit.edu/2021/MIT-CFS-major-advance-toward-fusio...
It's pretty amazing that they did that without any engineers.
Getting above unity is important but it's still a very long way from systemic over unity of the entire lifecycle of the process that turns fusion into electricity on the grid. And that simply won't happen in my lifetime or most of your lifetimes.
What will likely happen during our lifetimes is we develop large-scale electricity storage mechanisms. Together with decentralized microgrids, storage will enable most of the world's electricity to be generated by renewables. The sun is a giant fusion engine, and it's the only fusion engine that will be practical for us during at least the next 50 years.
We’re seeing something similar happening in self driving cars
In other words, I suspect it's not fueled by a technology trend, but by trying to capture a potential customer trend.
There are no guarantees here of course, but there are now quite a few companies acting like they are going to get their first test plants up and running in the next ten or so years. From there to commercialization is of course still a long and risky path. But it's very different once you can prove that the process works and more energy comes out then goes in.
As you say, fusion reactors will have to compete with absolutely dirt cheap solar, wind, and storage. As well as with future fission plants that may or may not become cheaper than the current state of the art (which is super expensive). Just getting things working is not going to be good enough. It will need to work cheaply.
When these companies come and claim that their better magnets will allow them to supply power to the grid 3 years from now when they haven't even arrived where JET is yet, so they haven't even started in the unknowns of actually running the reactor continously and extracting power from it, it is clear that they are gifting with their timeline. And if they are willing to lie about the timeline, I don't see why anyone believes them about the fundamental technology as well.
It's quite weird to think that seeing a potentially endless source of free energy we wouldnt be throwing a trillion dollars or so at it but thats humanity for you.
Scientists were similarly optimistic about space exploration after landing on moon shortly before NASA's budget dwindled.
From all that I read, Ammonia is a prime candidate. Especially because there's an existing large market for it, so producers don't have to bet on a new market to ramp up production. But there's no real reason why some power plants, ships and maybe even trucks couldn't be driven by Ammonia in the future.
Or has there been anything else?
I wonder if they thought if it would be possible to accelerate such plasma droplets in opposite directions for to take Helion's aproach [1] if needed.
MIT's research, spun out as CFS, may be prompting other startups.
Helion's scheme to turn fusion heat into pushing E&M fields back through their magnet to generate electricity is pretty different from a standard MHD generator.
[1] https://firstlightfusion.com/ [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1RsHQCMRTw
Further, you will need huge quantities of such targets and projectiles, as the power plant will have to destroy them at a rate of one per second or so, in constant operation. So even for a single day, you will require 86,400 targets and as many projectiles - each being a marvel of precision engineering. Also, there is a good chance that you wouldnt even be able to recycle the material from spent targets to make new ones, as they will become radioactive from being in contact with the fusing plasma.
Essentially an ICF plant would actually be running on the world's most expensive fuel, and consuming it at an extraordinary rate.
capitalism innovation as usual.
Energy production/harvesting is a foundational element of our civilization. Literally all of the comforts of modern society require the expenditure of some form of energy. Any entity that develops an unlimited, clean and cheap source of energy essentially has access to a money printer.
A much more rational explanation would be "they are trying to grab as much cash as they can right now, for as long as people believe that this is a thing that we should be doing, and may be possible", regardless of whether it's a good idea (it isn't), or whether it would work (doesn't look like it). But sure, maybe they are completely sincere and really believe in it all, who knows?
But the issue isn't just that "all of the comforts of modern society require the expenditure of some form of energy" it's also the case that "exponentially increasing energy expenditure is just accelerating the rate at which we are asset stripping and polluting the earth" and the latter continues to be true even if we stop emitting CO2.
I think it should now be apparent to all that comfort-seeking and suicide are essentially the same process (ask any addict), at least for the definitions of "comfort" that our current political and economic system are organised around. Of course, quite a lot of people still do not experience a lot of "comfort" even with the practically limitless energy that we have from fossil fuels.
Edit: sorry for the ramble, but to summarize, I think you give people too much credit to imagine they can design such a complex money printer with a 10 year plan, and if they could plan to that timescale, they are probably going to see that society so far in to collapse by then, that even with infinite energy, there will not be much value in the money that it prints.
No. Potential investors are used to extremely skewed investments results for startups. Most startups fail, but some of those that succeed, succeed spectacularly.
A successful fusion startup is almost guaranteed to have a spectacular success, something that would make Facebook or Uber or Tesla look like small potatoes. Given that, a VC is ok with investing in it even if they think the likelihood of success is only 1%. They would not if they think that likelihood is only 0.01%, because at that level estimates are not reliable (who's to say it's 0.01% and not 0.00001% ?). But if there's a reasonable argument that P(success) ~ 1%, then it's a no-brainer to invest, because even a mistake of 2 orders of magnitude would still result in a positive return.
For the rest of us though, the "fusion is 50 years in the future" can simply be replaced with "there's a 99% chance fusion will not be done in the next 50 years". Or, what the heck, just leave it at "fusion is 50 years in the future" and you'll be much more right than wrong.
Well, one thing that should be clear to anyone watching the space is that fusion will be neither unlimited, clean nor cheap. At the very least, not with any approach being looked at today.
First of all, being based on state-of-the-art science and tech, it's clear that it cannot be cheap for another 20-30 years even if it was working today.
Secondly, fusion reactors will produce large quantities of radioactive waste, probably larger than fission reactors, because everything that comes in close proximity to the reactor will be bombarded by 30+ times as many neutrons than in a fission reactor (or 5x-20x as many for DD fusion), and much higher energy neutrons at that, making it brittle and radioactive. Most of the reactor components are expected to need changing every 2-4 years, by which time they will be radioactive waste. Not to mention, fusion plants will work with large amounts of tritium, which is notoriously hard to contain, making tritium leaks all but guaranteed. So, definitely not clean.
Thirdly, fusion reactors require large amounts of tritium, which is virtually non-existent on Earth and must be created in fission power plants. The neutrons from the fusion reaction can theoretically also be used to recycle tritium (when hitting the lithium blanket), but you would have to recapture 100% of the tritium produced this way to recreate fuel, which is not possible. So, to run a fusion reactor you will be limited by tritium availability, and that will mean you also need a small fission reactor, and that in turn requires uranium - so, not really that unlimited.
Not to mention, even Deuterium is not actually that easy to obtain, as you need to either get it from fossil fuels (the way it is mostly obtained today) or from water hydrolysis, which is another waste of your produced energy.
Overall, fusion seems extremely unlikely to be an economically viable source of energy in the coming decades. Every new reactor will require massive investments, it will waste a good portion of its output to keep itself running (powering the superconducting magnets, pumping coolant, void pumping the reactors, water hydrolisis, lithium processing to extract the tritium etc). It will require highly trained engineers to design, build and maintain. It will have a high risk of catastrophic damage to the reactor itself, easily vaporizing much of the investment in an instant if the magnetic containment of the plasma fails, for example, or melting down spectacularly if the cooling system fails. Virtually all components of the reactor, including the high tech magnets, will require constant replacement as they become brittle from the neutron bombardment - and all the old parts will require expensive radioactive storage for at least a few decades to centuries.
This is really not an honest critique. The cost of obtaining deuterium is quite low compared to all the other costs of building and operating a fusion reactor.
Here in Korea for example, they are building out the worlds most dangerous fission reactors because domestic heavy industry, concrete companies, and so on are extracting very good earnings from that. Meanwhile, Korea is the leader in offshore wind (but only to export to other countries, and it's all manufactured in Thailand) presumably the lack of interest in the Korean government in stimulating domestic demand, and the cheap labour in Thailand are factors, along with oil prices, in why it is so cost-effective.
A belief in the free market would lead us to expect that eventually the green options would become just as corrupt and be able to hold the world hostage and capture policymakers, but it does not seem to have happened yet, maybe there is just a lead time for industries to develop their capacities for political corruption?
There was this great MIT paper [1] published a while back that's still to be rebuked, talking about the serious technical challenges. Furthermore, there's Maury Markowitz's blogs that have been around for more than a decade showcasing why economically future can never work competitively on the grid [2].
Fusion is great science, it may eventually return a net positive in energy, but it has so many problems that make it impossible to use commercially.
[1]: http://orcutt.net/weblog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/The-Trou...
[2]: https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/why-fusion-wi...
Magnet miniaturisation and CADs like the stellarator [1] refute this.
With respect to waste and embrittlement, those are simpler consumables and waste products than fossil fuels and atmospheric emissions.
They've received $500M (lead by Sam Altman) to demo net electricity by 2024.
Side comment: fusion can be seen as a solution to many of our worst problems. But another way to see it is that without a complete change in what societies value and how they act (i.e. a cultural/philosophical/storytelling change), fusion is just going to increase the rate at which we are transforming this planet into a giant pile of garbage, whether its solid and liquid garbage (leading to wiping out 60% of wildlife in 50 years, spilling the phosphorus of our soils into the sea -making them sterile and killing life in the sea- etc etc), or gas garbage (typically greenhouse gases).
We do that by extracting resources nature concentrated for us for free for millions of years and dispersing them all around in our buildings, phones, playstations, fertilizers, fuel etc.
As long as Black Friday is the highlight of the year, there are reasons to think fusion might be more dangerous than helpful.
It’s good to have an increasing ability to transform matter, as long as you are using that ability in the right direction.
I'm not saying I don't want fusion, I'm saying that without getting much better at deciding collectively what to do with it then those graphs will stay coupled, taking us to a sure doom.
Anyway it's likely we'll get there before fusion so it should not distract us from all other necessary transformations the system needs.
Induced demand is still valid economic demand, and congested roads are still being used productively. There's a reason why sane governments don't regularly "improve" roads by removing lanes.
Another problem of car-centric infrastructure is that it doesn't scale as well as public transport - a single bus can, potentially, take 50 or more cars off the road.
That does not justify it.
I guess that depends on your perspective. I see expanding freeways as enabling further sub-urban growth, which is fundamentally unsustainable (from an energy, logistics, and municipal funding perspective).
has this kind of initial dismissal ever won anyone any favor in an argument?
I see it all over the thread, and I find myself having a hard time wanting to consider the argument afterwards even if I am personally aligned with them just because it seems so inconsiderate and rude.
Is it supposed to signal your experience in the field, having heard this argument so many times -- or does it signal the opponents inexperience? Either way I find that approach to come off as arrogant and rude.
The admins make it clear that neither behavior is wanted, but the argument in question really gets my goat. In my area, road diets and similar ways to deny demand for increased capacity aren't just fallacious arguments, but key elements of public policy that are seemingly engineered to waste time and fuel while contributing to pollution. The only time such arguments are valid are when they've already been applied farther downstream, where the next bottleneck is inevitably cited as a reason why expanding capacity in a given area "won't work."
Similar policies could be applied in many other places, yielding outcomes that pretty much everyone would agree are worse than the status quo, yet for some reason they always find a receptive audience when the problem domain is transportation.
increasing demand on a highway gets more people to where they are going, but if the destination doesn't have more parking spots, you've caused an imbalance in the system. same as the electrical generation - if it suddenly becomes absurdly cheap to manufacture more consumer goods, we've just increased the pressure on the whole system that needs to manage the rest of the lifecycle of those goods after manufacture. sure, some people will make money, but that's not the point.
One of the underlying assumptions of all mainstream economic theories since the XIXe century is that EVERYTHING that comes from nature is infinite and has been provided to us for free, whether it's resources, clean air, a durably nice temperature, animals etc. What has a cost is to pay people and machines to extract those things, but not the things in the first place.
Based on this assumption, we've acted as if nature was infinite and increased our rate of extraction to ridiculous heights, reaching the limits of a system that is sadly, due to the laws of physics, finite. One example : China has used in 3 years roughly as much sand for construction as the US has in the entire XXth century (btw sand is the new gold and a huge black market for it is now in place...)
Economic demand is just a metric.
You are celebrating a metric without considering if and how it contributes positively to the goal, and I'm not even sure we agree on the goal, if yours is tumor-like growth.
- Designing things to be durable and recyclable in the first place is probably more economical and sustainable (both can be combined though, no problem)
- Recycling is not a silver bullet. Extracting and re-combining all the microscopic parts of different metals in an iPhone to get back the original metal is incredibly expensive or unfeasible, compared to just extracting that metal from nature
- Unlimited energy makes it easier to go deeper and deeper extract resources from earth's crust, generating more and more garbage. What do you think we'll do, when you observe what we've done so far?
Thank you for saying this. Unlimited almost-free energy makes energy-saving measures moot, including building insulation. People would heat or cool even open spaces with little regard for the environment.
And all the heat is eventually released into the atmosphere.
Consumerism would be supercharged as well. Indeed we need a huge shift of societal priorities.
(Needless to say, when I point that out HN downvoted me. Here technology is always and only good.)
edit: there you go, already downvoted at -2 for saying the same thing as the parent.
So I'm also skeptical.
Translation of "middle class": class of mass consumers.
Life is literally as affordable for people as the amount of energy that is available to them, that's the main factor (a bit of optimization of processes also plays but at a more minor order). Food used to be 25% of households' spending early XXth century, when someone would go buy eggs from the local market or farmer. Today it is 10% if you count the margins of industrials, distributors etc. But if you just look at the price of the eggs, then it's probably less than 1%.
What allowed this? Energy! Energy allowed for abundant food, a long life, studying and the general tertiarisation of the economy (giving birth to tech) and of course consumerism. The more energy the cheaper everything is the more people consume, at least as long as we persuade people that buying things is the greatest pleasure in life.
The evidence clearly shows that humanity is not acting rationally and we are letting consumerism run unchecked.
A good example is plastic: we are aware of the health impact of particulate and yet we can't even have a conversation around stopping using plastic worldwide. Rather than a choice it looks like an addiction.
felixmeziere wrote about cultural change.
Additionally, it's very likely that fusion will be viable primarily in developed countries, further increasing energy inequality.
That rate does not scale negatively with energy prices. It scales positively with population, in the West.
We could just accelerate towards stagnant global population growth. Improving economies and access to contraceptives in poor nations could do that. Everybody wins, except the very richest.
Coercing the population to stop consuming is a non-starter. We could also create stronger incentives and regulations surrounding waste. There are lots of new biodegradable tech companies now, to replace plastics, for instance.
I wouldn't uses "prices" here as a framing. If you plot the graphs of worldwide energy usage and worldwide garbage emissions (let's take greenhouse gases or amount of artificialized soil as examples), you will see that they are correlated. We have grown to this gigantic population solely thanks to our mastery of energy, that's the one factor that enabled all the rest (abundant food, time to go to college instead of farming, developments in medicine to make your life longer, retirements, consumerism etc.).
What I'm saying is that, looking at what we've done so far with energy, it's not entirely sure more energy will be good for our prospects of survival. We need to have a collective philosophical revolution first.
You've mentioned this twice, and so it's worth nothing that important factors also correlated in that period of time: the rapid rise of the middle class following the decimation of wealth from the world wars, which led to a population boom.
Another factor you're taking for granted: fertility rate drops in economies as they get very strong. Western countries boost immigration for this reason: you need more bodies to increase GDP growth (and by extension, waste), if that's what you want. Lower energy prices alone will not lead to people breeding more. If it did, we'd have more kids than our grandparents/great-grandparents did, just as you alluded that they spent more on food.
So on top of the fact that we're projecting GLOBAL STAGNANT POPULATION GROWTH, which means an end to increase in consumption, technological innovation means that consumption produces less waste. You can't account for innovation in energy and nowhere else.
> What I'm saying is that, looking at what we've done so far with energy, it's not entirely sure more energy will be good for our prospects of survival. We need to have a collective philosophical revolution first.
I know what you were saying, and I'm saying it's wrong.
The 2 questions now are: 1) what allowed us to reach this amount of population? 2) can this amount of population remain stable with the current inputs given to the system or not?
My two answers:
1) Energy. Abundant energy is what allowed population to reach such heights (x7 in 200 years). In a nutshell it did so by enabling us to get abundant resources, food, medicine and comfort, the first stages of Maslow basically. It did so at scales that would have defied imagination in previous centuries.
2) There are two possible answers here:
- Yes, it is sustainable, meaning we don't deplete earth's resources faster than they renew themselves, situation which will get better with the improvement of technology and will compensate for more and more people getting into the middle class (i.e. more consumers).
- No, it is not sustainable, meaning we are depleting earth's resources faster than they renew themselves, and this situation will get worse with more and more people accessing the middle class (or worse: higher classes) and so the population will collapse at some point due to shortages of food/pandemics/wars etc.
Data to help answer the questions:
- all serious scientific reports (IPCC, https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound... and others) say that we are currently depleting earth's resources much faster than it can renew them and destabilising many natural systems like climate/life etc to irreversible points
- the average american currently emits 16 tons of CO2/year, the average human emits 4 tons/year, we need to get to under 2 tons/year to make sure the climate does not blow up too much => consequence of this: 5 billion people with a lifestyle a bit closer to the one of americans (i.e. a growing middle class) is much worse than 10 billion with the living standard of people in say, south-east asia or Africa => the living standard is much more important as a factor than the amount of people, if we get more energy with the same amount of people, we'll just keep giving more and more comfort to more and more people, trust me that energy won't stay unused on the side nicely.
- Similar idea to previous point: there is a direct correlation between living standard and amount of destruction of the environment. The rich destroy the planet incredibly more than normal people, even in developped country (symbolised extremely by Brandson & friends). More and more rich/middle class people = more and more energy consumption. This factor is much more powerful than population growth.
- [To be fact checked] I don't remember exactly the numbers but in the past 50 years, optimisations thanks to technology have divided the consumption of machines by 2, while emissions have been multiplied by 4 or 5: so far with what we observe, technology is not a silver bullet to reduce the problem. It is more the cause of the problem by enabling us to do always more and more, with our clumsy, human ways and therefore disrupting nature always more and more.
What are your answers?
We're depleting resources, and we're also still growing. If we're scrutinizing a future with a non-growing population, it makes no sense to assume the same level of depletion. It's a function of demand. Much of new land encroachment isn't for any novel products, it's to increase the output of meat production to satisfy demand (in South America at least, in the U.S. that land-use has not been growing).
This also doesn't take into account technological innovation.
> This factor is much more powerful than population growth.
The rich are too few in number and they're primarily rich by virtue of everyone else's consumption. Notwithstanding that their own practices can be very damaging, it doesn't meet that scale.
> It is more the cause of the problem by enabling us to do always more and more, with our clumsy, human ways and therefore disrupting nature always more and more.
This is purely philosophical. There's no evidence that a zero-carbon world with improved energy efficiency would necessarily lead to environmental destruction.
> This means that the imminent concern in the capacity of sustainability (exacerbation of climate change) is largely addressed, save for the carbon capture / cooling aspect we will want.
This seems to show that you have a climate-only lens to look at the problem, even though the point that fusion would greatly disrupt CO2 emissions is 100% correct. The imminent concern is not just exacerbation of climate change.
1) This lens is incomplete because even if we completely stopped emitting CO2 right now we would still go to a destabilisation of the physical world around us due to all the other planetary boundaries being crossed https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound.... For example food supply would be disrupted by the artificialization of soils and disruption of the Phosphorus Cycle, many if not most food chains on which we depend will collapse due to the fact that we are killing or consuming most animal species, among which vital insects (the 6th mass extinction has started and is much faster than previous mass extinctions), water supply will be disrupted more and more etc.
2) It's also incomplete because it doesn't account for the other end of the problem : the depletion of ressources. Fusion means we can extract more and more resources, deeper and deeper, creating an even more unbalanced system if it's not done in a way were resources can regenerate themselves at the same rate we extract them.
With what we have done every time we got additional energy so far, it is likely that getting fusion will increase pressure on planetary boundaries that are not CO2 emissions : you fix a problem by worsening the others.
> it makes no sense to assume the same level of depletion. It's a function of demand.
Good point. It's a function of demand, therefore it makes sense to assume the same level of depletion will increase, since more and more people will get access to middle-class (or more) lifestyle, which is the main driver of demand for resources (as opposed to population growth, which is less of a driver if it's population growth in countries without a middle class).
> This also doesn't take into account technological innovation.
As I said this could be a factor that helps with depleting less resources but so far we have observed the impact technology has been to dramatically increase ressource use and waste overall, not reduce them.
> The rich are too few in number and they're primarily rich by virtue of everyone else's consumption. Notwithstanding that their own practices can be very damaging, it doesn't meet that scale.
We are talking about middle classes here, which are massive and meant to become even more massive. It is also true that the richer you are the more you emit but that's a side phenomenon to understand why the amount of middle-class matters.
> There's no evidence that a zero-carbon world with improved energy efficiency would necessarily lead to environmental destruction.
Then you haven't read or studied resources like https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound... to begin with a simple/mainstream one for example, you haven't looked at the impact of mining and the orders of magnitude of resources we would need for a world where societies keep having the same behaviour as today, with just the "carbon-free" component added.
Anyway this is a bet: there is no proof it would work either, and if it does not the population will completely collapse. Which way do you want to try? An organised de-growth (in terms of GDP, not total wealth if we account for the destruction of nature) were we know we can make it at the expense of less comfort and consumerism, or try to keep growing and just become net zero carbon, with the hope that we can make it, to the risk of collapsing and making the earth uninhabitable?
One more resource you can look at in case you didn't know about it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#:~:text=T...
Being obsessed with carbon creates blindspots with respect to all the other planetary limits, our oceans are being emptied of life because of what we have done so far with abundant energy. The earth system is being destabilised in many other ways than just climate change. We need a global systemic solution, not to fix the problems one by one separately, because by doing that you will often make other problems worse by fixing one.
I'm not saying we don't need more abundant energy, I'm saying we need to change our philosophy, the way we organise ourselves and what we do with it first.
You described no other imminent problem.
to your 1), food supply is a moot point as population will stagnate. The West often overproduces as it stands and is poised to reduce food waste.
to your 2), we're nowhere near depletion of resources, and there's no reason to believe the average person's purchasing power will not only greatly increase to allow for inordinate amount of consumption, but that it would outpace technological innovation which minimizes and recycles materials.
> With what we have done every time we got additional energy so far, it is likely that getting fusion will increase pressure on planetary boundaries that are not CO2 emissions : you fix a problem by worsening the others.
Fusion, to the extent you're portraying it, is a long ways off, and additional energy has not done much for the average person in the last several decades. It's irrational to project outsized negative impact.
> since more and more people will get access to middle-class (or more) lifestyle
Before population stagnation, yes. That's among the driving forces leading to stagnation. But after which, no. "More and more people" necessarily ends at "all of them".
> so far we have observed the impact technology has been to dramatically increase ressource use and waste overall, not reduce them.
Technology to reduce is in it's infancy. Necessity is the mother of invention. These externalities were never much of concern to the oligarchic, financial and political classes - that is changing.
> Then you haven't read or studied resources
You're looking too short-term.
> or try to keep growing
Nowhere do I advocate for this. False dilemma.
We know we can make it by limiting population growth.
Not sure why what I described previously is relevant if this assertion is true in itself, however let's double-check this in what I wrote above: "whether its solid and liquid garbage (leading to wiping out 60% of wildlife in 50 years, spilling the phosphorus of our soils into the sea -making them sterile and killing life in the sea- etc etc), or gas garbage (typically greenhouse gases)", "all serious scientific reports (IPCC, https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-bound... and others) say that we are currently depleting earth's resources much faster than it can renew them and destabilising many natural systems like climate/life etc to irreversible points" <= are these not imminent problems? Actually the main problems I've been describing in this post are precisely not climate change, to try and de-center the debate from just this, I'm not sure how you have been reading this...
> to your 1), food supply is a moot point as population will stagnate. The West often overproduces as it stands and is poised to reduce food waste.
Looking at how things currently work is a very bad indicator: since we are depleting resources faster than they can regenerate themselves (earth overshoot day was a few days ago), if we keep doing things as we are doing right now, even with constant population, even with a bit of improvement from technology, even with current overproduction, the food system WILL collapse. My point is: in all matters environment, the current way we do things leads us to collapse even if everything remains constant.
>to your 2), we're nowhere near depletion of resources, and there's no reason to believe the average person's purchasing power will not only greatly increase to allow for inordinate amount of consumption, but that it would outpace technological innovation which minimizes and recycles materials.
This is just not true, wether we stay on a carbon-powered society or if we transition towards a battery/renewables-powered society. And again, there is no need to account for future "increases of things", things are bad enough at the current rate.
> Fusion, to the extent.... The amount of energy person has not increased in the last several decades in developed countries.
> "More and more people" necessarily ends at "all of them".
Absolutely. But don't worry, earth will have burnt long, long, long before even half of the world's population has accessed American middle class levels of comfort, so don't worry about getting to "all of them".
> Technology to reduce is in it's infancy.
What makes you think you can bet on technology reaching levels to reduce it that are acceptable? What if we miss the target and collapse because of this bet? It's a risky one...
> Necessity is the mother of invention. These externalities were never much of concern to the oligarchic, financial and political classes - that is changing.
The necessity has been here for decades but nothing has been done, again, I wouldn't bet too much on the fact that the effect of this is going to be enough to compensate our hunger for freely-available resource extraction and depletion.
> We know we can make it by limiting population growth.
I don't know which credible source on the matter says this but certainly most don't. Sources say that much more than just limiting population growth is needed to make it.
Right now we are doing the opposite of that though: the advertising industry, one of the largest in Earth, is mostly about brain-washing people into buying more stuff. We can easily put a stop to this tomorrow while listing nothing of value to society, but instead we fetishize growth so we don't.
Innovation isn't just for the energy sector either. Consumables create less waste over time. Biodegradables are making a big entry in the market. All this means is that as the population levels out (as it is projected to), consumption will create less and less waste.
At any rate this falls into the same category, coercion. People want things, especially if they improve their lives. Much of what you take for granted now was advertised. Take-out food, vehicles, smartphones and computers and media, etc.
Yeah, "nothing of value". I don't think you get to decide what people value, that's what the market is for.
And yes, people are absolutely buying more garbage than their parents - and certainly their grandparents. Look at clothes, jewelry, furniture, home appliances, cars - those all used to be more or less lifetime purchases, and have become things people change every 5-7 years top (much less for clothes). Not to mention things like buying new phones and other electronics every year or two.
These changes are all products of marketing and advertising to a great extent. Stopping these industries (or at least greatly curtailing their power) would help correct the market back into a more rational place.
Source please. 1 in 8 Americans are food insecure, cost of living has been climbing for decades, more than half say they live paycheck-to-paycheck and many say they'll never afford a house. So, which is it, is the economic climate better for millennials and zoomers or worse? Pick one. Because I doubt you would suggest to struggling Americans and Westerners that they are just squandering their money irresponsibly.
> Look at clothes, jewelry, furniture, home appliances, cars - those all used to be more or less lifetime purchases, and have become things people change every 5-7 years top (much less for clothes).
That changed quite awhile ago, with boomers and the ascendance of the middle class, and you just made that number up.
Clothing is not built to last. A suit can with care, but not a t-shirt. Notwithstanding that the waste we're concerned with hasn't to do with cotton material or jewelry, probably not even appliances.
A large amount of waste comes from containers and packaging. That is completely agnostic of the products themselves, there's no reason this can't be improved. There's also nondurable goods, durable goods and food. Check out this fact sheet for municipal solid waste - https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/documents/20... , and more from the epa.
> Advertising's purpose is to distort the market.
Indeed, and yet it's irrelevant. It doesn't perform miracles.
The most meaningful correction you can make to level of waste clearly has no dependence on advertising. Everything uses too much packaging, and food providers waste an inordinate amount.
and wind and hydro
Fission, OTOH, seems an interesting bet. The problem with old-style reactors is that there's basically no ESD (Emergency Shutdown) that you can perform. Those radioactive rods are going keep radiating heat no matter what. Newer styles seem a much saner approach, were two different materials must be in contact for a reaction to occur. In an emergency you just let one of them drain out, thereby stopping the reaction.
Coal is an abundant source of fuel with a proven track record. The big problem is with pollution. But there's no rule that says you have to puke out the waste into the atmosphere. It can be processed. After all, oil is pretty shitty when it comes up out of the ground, and needs a lot of processing. This is a costly exercise, of course, but one that we willingly undertake. The question now is one of economics: will the cost of waste processing mean that coal burning is feasible? It's a question that nobody seems interested in asking. We just seem to have the default assumption that coal energy was shitty in the past and must be shitty in the present. "Eww, coal".
I mean don't understand me wrong, it is obvious that is a much better form of energy release than all the other forms of energy production we have; but let us consider we manage to gain energy from fusion, the electricity released still releases heat, so how does it dissipate, if we have near-infitite energy, and anyone can spend as much as they want?
Nevertheless, the heating of the Earth puts a limit on the total usable nuclear power on Earth, both fission and fusion, it cannot be "infinite", but it must remain forever a small fraction of the power of the incoming Solar radiation, otherwise it would cause an excessive heating of the Earth by itself.
They key difference between nuclear and fossil fuels is the emissions each generates. Fossil fuels burn into greenhouse gasses which trap in heat. If we switch to nuclear, those greenhouse gasses won't accumulate as much.
While thermal pollution in Earths atmosphere is a very real and relevant issue with energy generation and all kinds of other human activities; A whole bunch of French fission nuclear reactors are regularly shut/throttled down during summer heat waves due to lack of appropriate cooling.
The combination of these factors sometimes makes me wonder if the game Oxygen Not Included is a crude simulation of what we are doing to this planet. There the biggest end-game problem is the asteroid colony overheating due to creating a whole bunch of extra heat inside of it from using up fossil fuels, yet lacking any good way to actually vent all these massive amounts of extra heat from the little biosphere.
Back on earth, thermal radiation is sending massive amounts of heat into space. Additional heat we put into the atmosphere will not stay for long enough to matter, compared to certain gases that block thermal radiation.
I'm just not too sure about that; Fossil fuels took millions of years, and massive natural forces, to accumulate in their modern day form, very similar to uranium and other energy resources. That's a lot of energy that went into "making" them over a lot of time.
But humanity is "unloading" all that energy, with all its effects including thermal radiation, into the atmosphere at extremely faster rates than it took to accumulate. And we've been doing it at a literally global and industrialized scales.
We even recognize the problem of thermal pollution on a "micro" level when we throttle and shut down generators, reactors and industrial processes that threaten to overheat the natural water bodies they use for cooling.
I see no reason why these issues can't accumulate and scale up to global levels.
Disregarding that possibility, as if humans couldn't screw up the planet on such scales, are exactly what made us run head first into global warming trough CO2 emissions and littering most of the planet with led and plastics.
But for real world deployment, we can have decentralized systems that have an ROI of 6yrs (Solar) and 10 yrs (Wind), - i think that’s the thing we should be doubling down on NOW. [https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/145C...]
On the contrary, physics suggest that performance scales with size, so even the extraordinary expensive ITER project is way too small to achieve engineering break even, let alone financial break-even. You will only hear about scientific break-even, which is a useless milestone because, yes, you get more energy than you put it, but you put electric energy and get fast neutron energy, only you need an order of magnitude more of that to get back the electricity you put in.
Understanding different types of break-even would be an obligatory primer to anyone navigating hyped fusion claims: https://news.newenergytimes.net/2022/04/08/fusion-q-values-a...
Massive superconducting magnets generating megatons of force, building-sized vacuum chambers that are almost guaranteed to leak some amount tritium, which only adds to the unavoidable regulatory burden imposed by the fast neutron environment, activated structure and every day production of weapon-grade material etc. etc., even if the current technology magically works tomorrow, it's still an economic dead-end.
The present fusion crop is megascience at its worst, draining public funds for something that can't possibly ever work and producing very little substantial science in the way. We need to take a step back and reassess. At least Helion is trying a new path, even if they are likely to end up in a similar dead-end.
For example, there's this plasma-producing microwave + cut grape trick, what if you use something like this to supply really hot deuterium plasma?
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2018/11/f57/Exami...
The likelihood of the technology paying off has to enter into it somehow.
They didn't because they don't have the guts to create entire new branch of science.
Once the government has built research laboratiries, trained physicists and engineers, built prototypes, waited untill those engineers come up with viables plans, then the VC are ready to swoop in and take all the credit.
Thats fine if Venture capital can't make 60 year investments. Whats not cool, is everyone else buying the narrative that we don't need government funding for fundamental research, that VCs will solve all problems in the world as long as we let them run wild and don't tax them
That said, what the literal fuck -- we've previously been investing 1/850,000th of global GDP in one of 4-5 truly promising energy technologies while the world burns before our eyes?
In the meantime, all of the experimental devices (JET, AUG, EAST, DIII-D, etc.,) have been gathering evidence on how to operate ITER when it is turned on, and not necessarily focused on achieving breakeven.
This is one of those numbers that only seem big without context. Medium-sized cities spend more than this on interchanges and highway development over shorter timespans than any of the various multi-decade price tags that get thrown around for ITER.
The hefty price tag seems smaller when considering the development and design of ITER began during the cold war.
The literal size is definitely big even without context, which is why it has the nickname: gigantomak :D.
3 meals per day, 5$ per meal for 365 days is 3,832,500,000,000$
Even in the European Union, it is possible to pay around $5 for all the meals of a day, including not only adequate quantities of vegetables and fruits, but also a moderate amount of chicken meat.
However, for that, you must be cost-conscious, because from the same shops you could buy an equivalent quantity of food, but at a price even 10 times greater, when you choose to buy processed foods, even those as cheap as bread, instead of buying only raw ingredients.
a meal of 65g dry rice and 55g dry beans per person.
700m * 3 = 2.1b meals per day 115,500 tons beans = $80.9m 136,500 tons rice = $68.3m
Total $149.1m/day
I'm sure at these quantities you can get much better prices of rice and beans, even just browsing on alibaba. I'd guess we can probably get that down under $100m from alibaba. Probably even lower at the quantities we're talking about.
1 - https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/red-bean-wholesales-s...
2 - https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Jasmine-Rice-Long-Gra...
There will always be places where solar+battery isn't viable. Northern Canada and Alaska come to mind.
Solar is great but not simply alone. (Latitude is less of an issue as (proper) power systems are interconnected markets that sell/buy excess load.)
India is going to end up with perhaps two billion people and will have extraordinary population density/spacing problems. They're going to desperately need huge numbers of nuclear fission power plants or fusion plants to provide for that. They will not have the space for epic scale solar farms. Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam, Israel, Belgium, Netherlands (among others) are in the same space vs population situation. And given the population explosion across parts of the Middle East and Africa, it's a certainty nations in those regions will have the same problem as well.
Your math is totally wrong, space was never an issie for solar. It tales 100x less space for a coutry to cover it's power needs with solar, than it does for a country to grow it's own food and feed it's own people. So every country thats not a city-state, like Vatikan, is fine.
All the challaneges of Solar are around intermittency, cost and ofcourse it's less viable in northern lattitudes. But none of them are around space.
Solar needs more space in such locations but space is abundant and also nobody lives there so you dont need much power anyway.
The sun shines 24 hrs a day during summer, so you can generate lots of hydrogen for use during winter.
Basically everything except fission, tidal and a portion of geothermal. Admittedly it's not a terribly useful classification.
I'm not sure what benefit density provides, especially since people obsessed with density seem to only focus on the reaction chamber, which is the smallest part of the massive building and heat rejection apparatus that will be needed.
Rejecting waste heat is a real difficulty, and part of the reason that's France's fission fleet is at less than 50% capacity right now.
Thermal electricity production has a chance of becoming obsolete compared to direct conversion of photons into electricity. When solar plus storage costs less than steam turbines plus heat rejection, then it doesn't matter how cheap or dense the fusion part is in terms of economics.
[1] https://apnews.com/article/technology-government-and-politic...
> But a group of residents organized as “Save Our Mesa” argued such a large installation would be an eyesore and could curtail the area’s popular recreational activities — biking, ATVs and skydiving — and deter tourists from visiting sculptor Michael Heizer’s land installation, “Double Negative.”
I also searched the page and the word 'climate' doesn't appear even once. Why do you consider this to be an example of 'climate activists' shutting down a solar farm project, and do you have any other (actual) examples of it happening?
For another actual example of this happening, see the scaling back of the Ivanpah Solar Power Facility
Those are NIMBYS who want their view. Maybe with a mix of oil lobbyists.
Don't get me wrong, I am very frustrated by people who see themselves as environmentalists, for whom climate change (and thus non-carbon energy sources) is not the top priority. I think they have wrong priorities. But that doesn't mean they're hypocrites, they're just (IMO) wrong.
All that said, I agree with your topline observation that we need all the help we can get.
If that's too annoying to store you can get it hot and squeeze it over some nickel to get methane.
Electrolyzation becomes cheaper than mining methane for hydrogen (and thus ammonia) production if solar hits the $0.2-0.3/Watt threshold somewhere (which is predicted to happen in 3-7 years).
It's complicated and expensive, but I'm not sure I'd bet on a sabatier reactor (or hydrogen storage if it gets cheap), an electrolyzer and 4x the solar panels being more expensive than a fusion reactor with the average output of 1 unit of solar.
Plus the sabatier thing means we don't have to upgrade all the heating furnaces and expand the grid to have 8x the capacity.
Fusion will be real handy where power density is king though. And if there's some non thermal way of getting work out of it, I can see it being cheaper.
Maybe in a few more years/decade/s we will reach a point where in some places in the world it will be economical viable to have exclusive solar and battery, and that assuming prices will continue to drop and that there won't be any resource or physical limitations. Then we got colder climates where solar + battery is unlikely to ever become viable. Exports of solar generated green hydrogen could solve that assuming that the technology for that becomes cheap enough.
Multiple different directions where specific technologies could be economical dominant in the future.
Hydroponics with fusion technology allows us to produce food without relying on the sun at all. I'd say that alone is worth the investment.
As for the future, beamed power will work out to interstellar distances, so energy sources other than our Sun (and other stars) aren't necessarily required.
(From your question you might have been thinking of laser propelled light sails. These are best at speeds high enough that fusion is out of the picture.)
- under the earth
- under the ocean
- deeper into space
Granted, we don't need a lot of power in these places right now. But if we have the option...then maybe we'll find some good ways to use it.
Unless I've missed something, nuclear fusion meanwhile has yet to demonstrate realistic commercial power generation, even as a proof of concept or a complete path to get to that point. In other words, more research is definitely worthwhile, but it also seems possible it will be a dead end at least in the near term. It's hard to argue prioritizing that over other things that have been generating real commercial power for decades. I'm all in favor of an all-of-the-above approach, but prioritization almost always has to be the reality.
Out of all sources of energy only atomic energy is something that we can practically scale at the moment to cover almost all our needs (air travel and maritime shipping being notable exceptions). We just need to think a bit harder how to ensure this is done responsibly and safely. Not saying it is an easy problem, but I think the issue is too little resources are devoted to solving it. I would say this probably isn't harder than sending a man to the Moon. It is just something that should be possible to fix practically with existing technology and just good design.
The cost of humanity that can't decide on what needs to be done is that we are still reliant on fossil fuels and are distracting ourselves with half measures that have a lot of problems that in hindsight were pretty obvious. Like solar energy -- only works when the sun is up, is difficult to scale and we still haven't figured out how to store energy for when it is needed.
Our children will curse us.
... what?
Criticism 1: you'd need, what, like 100 nuclear plants planned and approved? If you started now, maybe in three years you'd get like ... 10 approved. five years maybe 20-30.
Criticism 2: nuclear is not price competitive with current wind/solar installations, and CERTAINLY won't be competitive even with efficiency improvements with wind/solar in 10-20 years when any plant actually leaves the boondoggle funding phase and goes online.
Criticism 3: what design of plant? LWR/PWR/huge dome/solid fuel rod/oh shit it melts down in a natural disaster? Yeah uh, no thanks. If nuclear had gotten its act together about ... let's say 30-40 years ago and designed a reactor that:
1) meltdown proof
2) consumes almost all its fuel
3) scalable / easily replaced
Then we might be able to do it. Problem is, the entire nuclear industry was invested in solid fuel rod designs, the military loved it for the weapons isotopes, the politicos blocked funding for LFTR and other designs, the solid fuel rod reprocessors were making bank, there was probably other shadow industries like waste handlers/transporters on the dole.
So... nuclear is a no go. Solar/wind for now, use natural gas and existing nuclear for levelling until storage and solar/wind+storage drop to levels unattainable by nuclear/fusion/naturalgas/geothermal/hydro. Synthfuels for aviation. Long haul shipping can probably be done with swappable batteries and/or synthfuels. ... maybe... hydrogen if it's not the current trojan horse for hydrogen-from-methane being pushed by the oil companies.
Maybe nuclear can be competitive when solar/wind even out, and battery/storage finishes its incredible scaling and tech development. Maybe.
But the path forward is wind/solar, and maybe synthfuels and green hydrogen if the green isn't "green" like clean coal was "clean" coal.
Our children should already curse us. The science was there, and my and ESPECIALLY the boomers picked SUVs, big houses, moving to florida, and lots of cheap crap shipped 5000 miles from overseas labor over dealing with problems.
Dams also need many years to build, but you won't say they are useless because of this...
Second, nuclear is price competitive with wind/solar. The way nuclear is competitive is because it allows removing dependency on fossil fuels and wind/solar do not. We can't afford using fossil fuels anymore because it does not matter if you get lower $/kWh if along we cause drastic climate changes.
Stop thinking in terms of $/kWh produced by the powerplant alone. To compare cost of nuclear vs solar/wind you would need to include humongous batteries that would be needed to smooth out output of solar/wind stations which nuclear powerplants do not need. We don't have the technology to build those batteries in sufficient capacity and so the price of solar/wind is currently very, very high (the price of us all cooking/freezing/suffocating/starving, etc.)
Which will be cheaper? Especially, what will be cheaper in 10 years?
Which will be online faster? As in, can be scaled out in 3-5 years?
With forthcoming 200 wh/kg LFP / LMFP, 140 wh/kg sodium ion, and various other schemes, I will heavily bet on batteries + solar / wind beating out nuclear. I don't know if you're engaging in FUD based on cobalt and nickel chemistries, or just are ignorant of the forthcoming Gotion/CATL production lines for high density LFP and sodium ion chemistries. Those aren't resource limited, they just need to build the factories, and factories are a lot better than nuclear power plants in timescale.
PLUS, storage + solar can be distributed to the home to reduce the amount the grid needs to move from a centralized generator, make the grid and homes much more resilient, and function as a backup battery store to grid storage.
I never see hydro listed on LCOE charts. I'm going to assume it's at the scale of nuclear which is already not competitive. Hydro is actually the best grid storage if you have a mountain and two big lakes or some similar setup. As I understand it, the efficiency is 90% pumping and then getting it back.
ITER [1] is expected to produce more thermal energy than it consumes and is currently under construction. No electricity though.
The follow up plant, DEMO [2], should produce electricity (750MW).
If it will ever be built and then go online. Which is highly unlikely given the slow progress of ITER and its very difficult problems - some it even does not try to solve. Like getting enough Tritium: https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run...
750MW (again using thermal energy, which is probably not the future of electricity production) from such an expensive & complex device? Probably you would need pools of several fusion power plants, since it is unlikely that one fusion power plant will run for a longer periods of time. Maybe a pool of six would provide two running (just a wild guess).
The technical problems will be huge and the costs gigantic. I can't imagine how this will be competitive when in production (with outputs in tens of Gigawatts, to make any impact) in 2060 or later.
Investment in something that might not pay off is wise if it does, and foolish if it doesn’t.
Though, luckily, it looks like that was a little over-pessimistic: it's not like the field has been sitting on its thumbs despite having, in terms relative to the potential, negligible funding: [2].
[1]: https://imgur.com/3vYLQmm.png
[2]: https://phys.org/news/2021-11-unveiling-steady-fusion-energy...
[1] until recently
Wouldn't any energy we can realistically generate be a drop in the bucket compared to what the Sun throws at us every second? And even if not, what would a heat sink do about it? I think I'm missing something.
It is very very very doubtful it will beat wind/solar as they continue to drop in cost, at least not for probably... 40 years. We're looking at 10-20 years to a viable commercial design and construction.
I place fusion like next-gen fission: worthy of continued investment in research and maybe some subsidized consumer plants (if/when fusion becomes viable).
Even with viable fusion, there will likely be degradation/radioactivity of the power generation cores from fast neutrons and other problems.
Russians attack Europe - let’s invest in nuclear!
What is the next disaster that will make another common sense thing happen ?
59 megajoules in useful units is 16kWh, less than 2 days use of my house. That's the biggest fusion reaction ever.
Anyway, 59MJ isn't terrible if you can run it at 60Hz. Of course, I agree that the reality is a bit far away.
Ideally this energy output would be sustained for days within ITER.
JET is not designed to do this, as it has a copper magnet system, which means if you try to sustain such a plasma (confined with around 5 T magnet and around 2 MA plasma current) for longer than a few seconds, you would melt the magnet.
Edit: ITER would operate at 5-10 T, and around 15-20 MA plasma current.
Current fusion devices are not nor were they ever designed to generate electricity for a grid.
This is why we build ITER, and DEMO thereafter. Generating 'usable fusion power' is limited to building reactor scale experiments, which to date, has not been done (ITER will be the first).
DEMO will be plants built independently by several nations following the research from a successful ITER. They will be the first time that any attempt is made to actually convert the fusion products into electricity. There are currently no concrete plans for any DEMO plant - those are contingent upon ITER's success.
If everything goes to plan, the first model DEMO plant would begin operation in 2051. So, as I said, we are a long way away from producing even 1W of usable electrical power from fusion.
Put the same amount of spending into building a robotic solar collection factory on the moon and beam the power where we need it. No crazy particles to deal with and zero nuclear weapons byproducts.
If it is many times stronger than sunlight, that's pretty dangerous!
Vulture capitalist always show up during the last mile after government (us, the people) paid for kickstarting everything
What's sad is China already ahead despite all of that
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-12-31/China-s-artificial-sun...
https://eurasiantimes.com/artificial-sun-china-claims-design...
fission, solar, wind, waterfall energy all have their own negative environmental impacts
You need a lot of water for the cooling phase of the thermodynamic cycle that transform heat into electricity.
That's why during drought episodes fission plants have to be stopped.
There is however a non-thermal path to fusion energy, aneutronic fusion with direct energy conversion. In this scheme, the fusion reaction produces no neutrons and the kinetic energy of ions is directly converted to electricity.
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/workshops/nucogen/presentations...
Commercial fusion power is such a huge challenge IMHO there are only two ways we can get there currently: ITER/DEMO (if it doesn't get overcome by bureaucracy and the members don't loose interest in funding it) or Elon Musk (who is probably the only person who can attract the top talent needed, motivate it to work day and night and secure the funding).
It is a government funded project at this point
Here is the link of the article: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-list-government-su...
You have to be curious about who are their customers
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/will-the-ukraine-war...
The EU coming to subsidize them even more
And the fact that they are not profitable says it all
Business Insider is well known for twisting things to fit their biases. Case in point, the first two items on that list are the equivalent of the government paying a pen company to provide them with pens after determining that said company was the best one to supply them.
Relating to SpaceX, the only 'real' subsidy there is the $15 million towards Boca Chica. Although they've paid twice that in donations to local schools there.
>You have to be curious about who are their customers >https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/will-the-ukraine-war... >The EU coming to subsidize them even more
Same here, they'd be paying for the service of launching a payload on a SpaceX rocket. Should SpaceX just not do business with governments? They happen to be one of the few people with a reliable rocket available right now that has a short enough lead time.
>And the fact that they are not profitable says it all
Again, dishonest take. They're building technologies with high setup costs, of course they aren't taking profits, they're taking all the money made from Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy and putting it back into Starship and Starlink.
Edit: Oh and of course none of the government money mentioned there accounts for the majority of their funding, which at the moment is largely driven by private funding rounds (because contrary to your biases, investors can see SpaceX's success and potential for even bigger successes) and previous F9 related profits.
I don't know if that means people that allocate capital think crypto has a better chance of changing the world than nuclear fusion -- or if it's something else. But it is strange to compare the funding of each.
It’s something else. Many people want their money invested in something with a good risk adjusted returns. Only a tiny subset of investors invest significant portions of their capital into significantly lower expected value outcomes because they like the field.
Crypto up front costs are dirt cheap as most of it is open source software, and in a bull mania the rates of returns are astronomical.
Nuclear is a mature industry with R&D for fusion that has some of the largest up front capital costs on the planet for cutting edge materials, controls, land, and safety requirements. To top that off, the rates of returns are abysmal and take forever even compared to coal plants.
It's convenient but it's worse than a forum for creating knowledge people can search through later. It's a shame it's used for such interesting discussion.
A forum.
this is a feature not a bug. the real problem is lack of user ownership over data, not lack of searchability.